There are few aspects of the New Zealand football experience more unique than going to Samoa, winning a few double-digit victories, and thus qualifying for a major tournament that only 12 nations on the planet get to participate in. Those European and South American nations simply could not relate, what with all of their regular competitive continental competitions.

Just to top it all off, the qualifiers are outside the usual FIFA window. Being a confederation championship, pretty sure that means that clubs still have to release their players if requested. But that also means those clubs will have games during this time span. Realistically, the Football Ferns could get by without their very best players on this tour... yet the 24-player group that Jitka Klimková has selected is surprisingly strong. Perhaps even unnecessarily strong – with only two potential debutants in the mix and both have been selected for squads before.

Take Katie Bowen for example, she’s been everpresent for Inter Milan since joining them after the World Cup (where she was arguably Aotearoa’s best performer across the three matches). Her presence in this squad means she could miss up to four club games including a second-leg cup quarter-final against Fiorentina (she actually scored an own goal in the 2-2 first leg) and a Serie A game against Juventus. The poor old Wellington Phoenix have six players in this squad including their entire starting midfield. They requested a postponement for their Feb 18 match against Western United but not only did that not get granted (due to venue availability and fixture congestion), the APL has instead rescheduled the men’s Nix game from that weekend so that both teams kickoff at the same time. The Nix did manage to push their Feb 11 match against Adelaide back to a later midweek, at least.

Two players in this squad, Ruby Nathan of Canberra United and Liz Anton of Perth Glory, have been only been picked for the first game and will return to their clubs afterwards (seems that Grace Jale, also of Perth Glory, is remaining for the full thing though). Remember that the Ferns will play five games in this tournament if they’re to progress. Three in the groups and then a semi and final. Almost doesn’t seem worth turning up for only one game, right? Except that this detail might help explain why such a strong squad has been picked. Here’s a quote from Klimková in the press release...

“The qualifiers are also a good opportunity to have the team together for an extended international window which, especially at the start of this new cycle, is really important to build on our connection on and off the pitch and lay the foundation for our style of play and evolution as a team for 2024 and beyond.”

No matter what she says about the relative growth/strength of the Oceania teams, the Ferns are still going to win these games by many, many goals. Last time they were in this spot was the 2018 Nations Cup. It was Tom Sermanni’s first tour in charge and they won 11-0 against Tonga, 6-0 against Cook Islands, 10-0 against Fiji, 8-0 against New Caledonia, and then 8-0 against Fiji again in the final. 43 goals scored and zero conceded. That was also with a pretty strong squad, of which seven players will be returning (Bowen, Hassett, Longo, Stott, Anton, Jale & Esson) – with several more are unavailable due to injury/club commitments (Percival, A.Riley, Moore, Satchell, Bott & Steinmetz all being mentioned by name in the announcement).

Age grade sides have been faring even more dominantly in Oceania: the U19s won a game 19-0 against Solomon Islands last year. Ruby Nathan scored five goals that day. The 2023 U16s did let the pressure get to them in the final, needing a very late winner to beat Fiji 1-0... but up until then they’d been emphatic, scoring 50 goals and conceding one in four matches. That included a 27-0 win against Vanuatu. The gap is not closing. Oceania teams have begun getting access to more FIFA money/exposure with a second OFC spot now available at youth World Cups (except for the Women’s U17s which still only has 16 teams), but it’s a ‘rising tide lifts all ships’ situation. New Zealand is getting better too, with more pros than ever before, and yet it feels like we’re losing ground because other (more prosperous/populous) nations are improving at a faster rate.

No, these games will not be close. And some of these senior Fernies will probably welcome the opportunity to pad their goals to caps ratios, particularly those non-Wilkinson forwards. Grace Jale debuted at the 2018 Nations Cup and scored against both Tonga and Cook Islands in her first two caps. No goals since. Gabi Rennie scored against Aussie on debut and now has just two goals from 30 caps. We all know Jacqui Hand deserves more international reward than she’s gotten so far. Indi Riley and Ava Collins are yet to score for the national team. Nor Ruby Nathan, although she’s only made one substitute appearance.

This is a chance to boost those numbers. This is a chance to qualify for the Olympic Games and thus secure some more top fixtures. But most of all it’s a chance to get the squad together for two full weeks, not just flying in and out for games with only a couple of proper training sessions. There’ll be plenty of rotation amongst the squad so there’ll be plenty of opportunity to train hard throughout. That’s the greatest value here and that’s why the squad looks stronger than anticipated.

There are a few exceptions but that’s mostly due to injury. Milly Clegg and Paige Satchell are both known to be injured, having been missing club games. Apparently so are Ali Riley and Malia Steinmetz, which is a pity since they’re amongst the few who don’t have any club clashes – Riley’s in her offseason and Steinmetz her winter break (hence why nobody knew they were hurt). Likewise, CJ Bott and Meikayla Moore have only just returned from knocks that kept them out for six weeks in CJB’s case and two months in MM’s. Both also have a lot to play for at club level. As does Ria Percival who is still trying to recapture her best form since that ACL injury and has gone out on loan to Crystal Palace in the English second tier to do so, hence it was “mutually agreed” that she’d skip this tour. All three of Bott, Moore, and Percival started for their clubs this past weekend and that’s where they ought to stay. It’s fine. No dramas.

It’s usually the case that the press releases don’t tell the full story either. For example, Vic Esson played for Rangers in their Scottish Cup game on Monday morning NZT, two days out from the first game in Samoa. Safe so say she won’t be playing that one. Meanwhile Anna Leat has a League Cup quarter-final on 8 February so there’s every chance that she arrives even later. Don’t be shocked if Brianna Edwards makes her debut in that opener vs Tonga. That might also be another reason why Ruby Nathan and Liz Anton have been called up for one match: to cover the distance for any other late arrivals.

Additionally, that’s something to consider when looking at who didn’t make the squad. Deven Jackson has been really good for Canberra lately (more prominent than Ruby Nathan) but Canberra plays twice during the Oceania qualifiers and they might have kicked up a fuss about releasing a starting eleven player. Less so for Hannah Blake since Adelaide vs Welly Nix has been delayed. Blake was called up to the last squad but withdrew injured now hasn’t made this one. Yet shenanigans are possible. It’s also true that Blake’s form has dipped since that last call-up, largely because of Adelaide being kinda rubbish (she did score on the weekend though, that was cool).

A few of those other Phoenix players are starting to make a serious case for further honours: Rebecca Lake, Emma Main, Manaia Elliott, etc. But it’s also not unfair for a coach to want to see them sustain that form for longer before sweeping them up into the national team. Klimková was patient with Milly Clegg, for example, waiting until after her first ALW season before giving her a debut. Michaela Foster didn’t go straight in as soon as she started whipping in those mean corners for the Nix. There is an established core in place and it should be hard to overtake those players. That doesn’t mean we can’t quibble with a few selections (personally, Blake & Jackson > Collins & Rennie). But we’re trying to build depth and competition here and this is what that looks like.

As to the tournament itself, the Football Ferns have been drawn in a group alongside Tonga, hosts Samoa, and Vanuatu. The other group features Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Fiji, and American Samoa... with PNG and Fiji the two teams most capable of giving New Zealand something close to a scare. Expect to meet one then the other in the semis and final. The Ferns will roll through their group in a canter but PNG and Fiji will have some tricks up their sleeve so don’t panic if the results in the knockouts aren’t quite as one-sided. The Pacific Games happened last November with Papua New Guinea beating Fiji 4-1 in the final.

Paul Ifill had been coaching the Samoan women’s team, though his former assistant Juan Chang Urrea now seems to have taken charge – another name well-known on the Aotearoa domestic scene. We’re likely to see a few NZ-based players in that squad and possibly a few other squads too. That Samoan Pacific Games side (which made it to the semi-finals) had Angelique TuiSamoa and Jaedeci Uluvili (Western Springs), Jayda Stewart (Canterbury Utd Pride), and Lilly Dowsing (Central) who all played National League last year. As always, confirmed squad lists are near-impossible to find pre-tournament. We’ll find out when the games start, s’pose. But Samoa’s is at least public and it taps heavily into the diaspora, with those four aforementioned players all included, as is Monique Fischer who was born and raised in NZ and been a pro across Europe since 2017 (including for Yeovil Town in the WSL).

And yeah it’s going to be very hot in Samoa at this time of year. It’s also going to be brutal for the Ferns having to play five games in the space of 13 days. At least the pitches should hold up okay since FFS Football Stadium has two fields to spread out the load during the group stages, then for the knockouts we move to Apia Park.

7 Feb 2024 – Football Ferns vs Tonga at 1pm (Wednesday)

10 Feb 2024 – Football Ferns vs Samoa at 5pm (Saturday)

13 Feb 2024 – Football Ferns vs Vanuatu at 4pm (Tuesday)

16 Feb 2024 – Semi-Final, probably at 7pm (Friday)

19 Feb 2024 – Grand Final at 7pm (Monday)

GOALKEEPERS

Brianna Edwards – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (0 caps/0 goals)

Victoria Esson – Rangers, SCO (20/0)

Anna Leat – Aston Villa, ENG (13/0)

Genuinely surprised that both Anna Leat and Vic Esson are sacrificing club stuff for these qualifiers given that only one of them can play at a time. Seems neither of them wants to let the other out of their sight after that previous Colombian tour seemed to suggest that Leat has now nudged ahead of Esson in the pecking order. It’ll be a hotly contested thing as to which of them starts in Paris 2024 (assuming we qualify, yeah yeah)... especially as neither of them is a regular starter at club level, each currently finding themselves as cup-specialist backups. Each and every one of these tours is important as they hopefully drive each other to new heights in that friendly rivalry for number tahi duties.

That’s great. We’ve got two really good goalies. Always a nice place to start from. Yet possibly more interesting is that Brianna Edwards (also a backup for her club) has been selected for the third straight tour. It’s now undeniable that she’s pushed ahead of Erin Nayler in the depth charts. Nayler still hasn’t played for Bayern Munich since signing – although she was on the bench for all six of their Champions League games – and that’s exactly what was anticipated when she went there. It was a competitive step backwards for a veteran player, easing her foot off the accelerator. A comfortable situation at a massive club but one where she was unlikely to get many games. Fair enough, she’s earned that right after 83 caps. It was no secret that both Esson and Leat had already climbed ahead of her and Nayler’s just at a different stage of her career/life.

There have been subtle clues since the World Cup of how Klimková envisages things moving into this next WC cycle. Anna Leat getting both starts against Colombia was one such clue. Another is Bri Edwards getting picked ahead of Erin Nayler in all three tours since the WC. She’ll surely get a senior international debut this month, probably in that first match if Leat and Esson do indeed hang around for those club starts.

Presumably Nayler is still in the wider frame... though it’d be funky to see what would happen if she isn’t and if one of these others gets injured. Who’s next? Lily Alfeld’s long-term injuries have taken her out of the picture. Murphy Sheaff is probably the go, another Aussie-born dual national who is currently entering her third-year of college ball at Kansas State University. Sheaff started ahead of Edwards at the 2022 U20 World Cup. Georgia Candy is currently an injury replacement at Melbourne Victory. She’s the only other kiwi keeper with a pro deal at the moment, though Nix Academy goalie Aimee Danieli would also be in contention. Blair Currie (Spring Arbor University) is another with an impressive college career, currently getting ready for her senior year. She could be worth a shout in a year’s time.

DEFENDERS

Liz Anton – Perth Glory, AUS (19/0)

Mackenzie Barry – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (9/0)

Katie Bowen – Inter Milan, ITA (100/3)

Claudia Bunge – HB Køge, DEN (24/0)

Michaela Foster – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (10/0)

Ally Green – AGF, DEN (7/0)

Grace Neville – London City Lionesses, ENG (5/0)

Rebekah Stott – Melbourne City, AUS (96/4)

Kate Taylor – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (11/0)

There are nine players in this squad who weren’t at the WC but they’ve still managed to lure their top two central defenders to Samoa: Rebekah Stott and Katie Bowen. KB just brought up her 100th cap and seems to be entering her peak having reinvented herself as a centre-back, carrying on her fantastic World Cup performance by immediately becoming a key player for Inter Milan. At this point, she might just be the frontrunner for the next captain of the team when Ali Riley retires.

And while Stotty’s made the move back to Melbourne City, seemingly a step backwards from Brighton in the WSL, she’s also been one of the premier defenders in the ALW this season. In fact she’s taken Katie Bowen’s place in that squad as the defender who gets their possessions rolling. KB led the league in completed passes last season and Stott has a huge lead this time. There’s a write-up of how the kiwis at Aussie A-League clubs are going over here, get amongst it. Stotty and KB, that’s where it all springs from.

But they’ve got competition because Claudia Bunge has done extremely well for HB Køge since moving to the Danish champions. Injury has meant she hasn’t played for the Ferns since the World Cup and she’s definitely someone who might get that ‘looking four years ahead’ boost that Anna Leat’s recieved. Kate Taylor’s likely to get some CB minutes here too, despite having had her own reinvention as a defensive midfielder for the Welly Nix. Still kinda think she’ll move back to CB if/when she moves overseas but it’s all good development. Actually, there might be Tayor x CDM minutes here too given the lack of Malia Steinmetz and Ria Percival. Someone’s got to be the enforcer in midfield.

Mackenzie Barry has probably been the most consistently impressive Phoenix player across their entire two-and-a-half season existence. She’s another a fine central defender... but Barry started both games in Colombia as a right back and it’s the fullback spots that are wide open here with no CJ Bott or Ali Riley, who were the two World Cup starters.

Michaela Foster also started those two Colombia games at LB. Grace Neville is a more attack-minded right back option. Ally Green can play on either side and was showing her best form since moving to Europe when the winter break hit in Denmark. As for Liz Anton and her one appearance... she made her name in the A-League as a central defender but has mostly played left back for the Ferns and that’s also where she’s found a home this season at club level. An unexpected shift but she’s been great in that role and it seems that’s probably where she’ll earn her 20th cap. All of Anton’s starts under Klimková have been as a fullback.

MIDFIELDERS

Daisy Cleverley – HB Køge, DEN (33/2)

Macey Fraser – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (0/0)

Betsy Hassett – Stjarnan, ISL (152/15)

Katie Kitching, Sunderland, ENG (2/0)

Annalie Longo – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (133/15)

Looking at this selection of midfielders, there’s a huge opportunity on offer for Daisy Cleverley to raise her stocks. No Steinmetz or Percival leaves the team lacking either of their usual anchors, while the other midfielders are all more renowned for what they do going forward. Cleverley’s been around the Ferns for several years but always as a backup player, and it was hard for her to push for anything more while she was at USA college competing for selection with full professionals. Except now she’s had a year and a half with HBK, winning a Danish championship, and finished off 2023 in some very tidy form. The criticism and the praise for DC are the same thing: she’s good at everything but doesn’t standout in any particular way. She’s not a hard tackler like Steinmetz. She’s not unfathomably tireless in the way that Percival is. Not as silky as Hassett, nor a dribbler/creator like Longo. But she does all of those things in small quantities and is a lovely midfield technician. Probably the only proper number eight in the team. This is a big tour for her.

Likewise for Macey Fraser who was picked for the last squad but picked up an injury that cost her the trip to Colombia. Instead her debut will come in sunny Apia, a fine reward for an instantly superb presence with the Wellington Phoenix. A-League defenders can’t handle her shot fakes so good luck to Oceania’s finest... there will be goals on offer here if she can keep her shots aimed at those corners. Not sure that any of this will give much indication as to how the Ferns attack will fare against stronger sides but it’s important to get Fraser into the system, she clearly offers something different with her directness. Been trying to see more long shots from this team for ages but only Liv Chance and CJ Bott really seem keen on unleashing those. Plus don’t overlook how much of a scrapper Fraser is defensively (believe it or not she’s only slightly behind Kate Taylor in terms of tackles this season).

Annalie Longo and Betsy Hassett, there’s not much to say there. Longo’s back in regular game rhythm now for the Nix which is great. Hassett is in her offseason in Iceland and is often used as a wide midfielder as much as a central one. The Welly Nix got the best out of her when she was in a more attacking position. Does make you wonder if we’ll see the 4-4-2 or the 4-3-3 shape in Samoa... probs won’t make much difference. These two are the most capped players in attendance and Hassett will get to take a chunk out of the difference between herself on 152 caps and the only two NZ footballers ahead of her: Ria Percival (166) and Ali Riley (159).

As for Katie Kitching, we’re still learning about her in this environment (and she’ll be learning plenty too in her first Oceania tournament experience), though know she’s tended to be used as more of an attacking mid for Sunderland. To a very successful degree, as well. Lastly we could get some Kate Taylor midfield minutes and there are several others who’ve played plenty of midfield at other stages of their careers (Stott, Bowen, Jale). There was even that game against Chile where Indi Riley started in the midfield... that was an experiment best not repeated.

FORWARDS

Ava Collins – St John’s University, USA (13/0)

Jacqui Hand – Lewes FC, ENG (19/2)

Grace Jale – Perth Glory, AUS (23/2)

Ruby Nathan – Canberra United (1/0)

Gabi Rennie – Unattached (30/2)

Indiah-Paige Riley, PSV Eindhoven, NED (16/0)

Hannah Wilkinson – Melbourne City, AUS (119/29)

Rightio, who wants to score some goals? Hannah Wilkinson does, obviously. She’s got a decent record against Oceania teams though missed the last Nations Cup due to injury. She scored four against Vanuatu back in 2010, her first goals in international football, with 9/29 of her goals coming against OFC nations. None since 2012 but that’s because she hasn’t had a chance. One thing about Wilkie is that her goal ratio may not be amazing but it’s better than anyone else in the current team – and the fact that two-thirds of her goals came outside of Oceania is also an impressive fact. Compare that to other active players...

Goals vs Oceania Opponents / Overall Goals

Annalie Longo - 10/15

Ria Percival - 10/15

Hannah Wilkinson – 9/29

Betsy Hassett – 8/15

Emma Rolston - 6/6

Katie Rood - 4/5

Rebekah Stott - 3/4

Grace Jale – 2/2

Daisy Cleverley – 2/2

Meikayla Moore – 2/5

Ali Riley – 1/2

Katie Bowen – 1/3

Paige Satchell – 1/2

Nothing wrong with getting while the getting’s good. It’d be cool if we scored more goals against other nations too but yeah that’s been on ongoing theme for a long time. Every time these long-term individual goal ideas come up, it always reverts to what a brilliant player we had in Amber Hearn who scored 23 times against Oceania teams and 31 times against non-OFC sides for an NZ record 54 international goals overall. She was a regular goal-scorer in the German top division for several years. The strongest era of the Ferns pretty much aligned with her prime and the desperate lack of goals began right around the time she suffered the ACL injury that led to her retirement.

But we stride onwards into an uncertain future all the same and here’s a chance to put a few G’s away and start building confidence again. Individually as well as collectively... because while Wilkinson has been scoring fairly regularly for Melbourne City this season she’s also not scored as many as she should have, while Grace Jale hasn’t scored since November after a hot start to the ALW term. Jacqui Hand’s goals and assists dried up for Aland United after the World Cup, although she’s looked red hot for Lewes after three appearances with one assist already. Indi Riley has scored a couple of bangers for PSV so that’s promising (Hand & IPR both started for their clubs over the weekend so don’t expect them to play game one either).

Just the one assist for Ruby Nathan so far with Canberra United... although remember that she absolutely torched the Oceania U19s last year with 8 goals in 5 matches – that looks like a very strong squad that’ll be heading to the U20 World Cup later this year. Nathan is the only one in this group who is eligible but you may recognise names like Zoe McMeeken, Manaia Elliott, Helena Erringon, Emma Pijnenburg, Zoe Benson, Kiara Bercelli, Aimee Danieli, Suya Haering, Ella McMillan, and Lara Colpi who’ll all be joining her.

Gabi Rennie’s finished up at university and is presumably seeking out a pro gig somewhere. Rennie scored on debut against Australia at the last Olympics then also scored in that win away to South Korea a few months later. She’s not hit the back of the net in 23 appearances since which even for this team is quite concerning. She’s had a lot of opportunities at a time when the team’s attack has been at a nadir.

Obviously it’d be mental to blame that on Rennie, just saying that she’s at an interesting junction in her career where she needs to start repaying that faith not only for the Ferns but also with a solid club situation because there are suddenly some pretty decent attackers knocking on the door: Hannah Blake, Emma Main, Deven Jackson, Manaia Elliot, etc. One reminder from this 2018 U17 World Cup retrospective was that Rennie was always a hard-working winger with that side, sticking wide and swinging in crosses, rather than a goal-scoring striker (which we did see a bit of in the National League). She’s still got that wonderful workrate but this team needs end-product as well. Paige Satchell is injured for this tour but she’s in the exact same boat.

Similar applies to Ava Collins, though she hasn’t ever been a regular for the Ferns, more just a player who pops up when others are unavailable. The fact that she’s listed still with St Mary’s in this announcement makes it sound like she’s going back for another year, which is also interesting timing. Maggie Jenkins was with the Ferns extended training squad pre-World Cup and she’s also giving it one more year in the States. Jenkins is another who it would have been fun to get a glimpse of in the professional arena, to get an idea of where she’s at these days. That day will come. Just gotta wait another year.

Everyone’s going to get a chance across five games. Don’t read too much into who scores how many and who starts most often and what the final scorelines are, this isn’t that kind of tour. But it is a chance to catch the Ferns in a different vibe which ought to be a nice change of pace. No grand sweeping conclusions. No raincloud stat dumps of goalless and winless streaks. No old blokes shouting thinly veiled misogynistic ideas about “accountability” and “attitude”. Just that glittering Oceania sunshine and hopefully some sturdy professional displays of football with a spot at the Olympics as a reward. Should be good.

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