Eight months after the World Cup, the Football Ferns are returning to Aotearoa with a pair of games against Thailand. Both games will be hosted in Christchurch, which didn’t get any World Cup matched yet after this series will have hosted as many home games as any other city over the past five years – four in Christchurch, four in Auckland, two in Wellington, two in Hamilton, and one each in Dunedin and Napier. The games will be at Apollo Projects Stadium, formerly known as AMI/Orangetheory Stadium, home of the Crusaders rugby team and on Friday the temporary home of the Warriors rugby league team (guess who’ll be getting bigger crowds).

Good times for the folks of the Canterbury region, of which there are several in this Ferns squad. It’s a sneaky fact that the Wellington Phoenix are stacked with Cantabrians and the Football Ferns have plenty themselves with Vic Esson, Gabi Rennie, Kate Taylor, and Macey Fraser all included. And those fans in attendance might also get to witness something else that’s pretty cool from these games: Football Ferns wins.

Thailand didn’t qualify for the last World Cup, beaten 2-0 by Cameroon in the intercontinental playoff tournaments (which NZ hosted). They did make it in 2015 and 2019 and even bagged a famous 3-2 win vs Ivory Coast in 2015, but they otherwise suffered hefty defeats in every game, including a 13-0 loss to USA in 2019. They were beaten 4-0 by China in the Asia Cup quarter-finals last year and suffered big losses in all three Olympic qualifiers which followed: 10-1 to South Korea, 3-0 to China, 7-0 to North Korea. Their squad is almost entirely home-based.

The Football Ferns have only played Thailand four times, with a 3-1 win in 1975 and a 9-0 win in 1981 followed decades later by a two-game away series in 2017. That series was the first after Tony Readings left the post as head coach, with Andreas Heraf and Gareth Turnbull sharing the duties as interims. Heraf would go on to get the role permanently and you know how that went down. Those games were the beginning of a shadow era for the Ferns... but they were also notable for a few other reasons. Between the two games there were debuts for Hannah Blake, Elise Mamanu-Gray, Malia Steinmetz, Victoria Esson, Maggie Jenkins, and Elizabeth Anton. Those games were when Ria Percival officially moved into the midfield for the national team. That in turn also made them the moments when CJ Bott became the top choice right-back. Anna Leat made her first start (though not her debut) in the second game. And while they were pretty tame and unconvincing in a 0-0 draw in that first fixture, they responded proudly with a 5-0 win in the second match – during which Amber Hearn scored the 54th and final goal of her glittering international career.

That was nearly seven years ago, hence plenty has changed. We’ve gone through two World Cups since then with a different head coach for each. Fresh players have emerged into the squad, while different regulars have ascended into leadership roles. We’re coming off an Oceania Olympic Qualifying Tournament during which we gained plenty of clarity around the current hierarchy of the team as they got stronger from game to game, in the process getting to experience that feeling of scoring goals again. These two Thailand games will be trickier than those, but they also won’t compare to what the Ferns will face at the Olympics.

Which, by the way, is not going to be pretty. They’re doing the draw tonight (Wednesday) so you might already know the score by the time you read this. In which case, you were forewarned – the Ferns got slumped into the lowest pot of seeds. The blokes, on the other hand, were inexplicably placed in the second seeded pot alongside Spain, Paraguay, and Morocco. They’re U23s so they couldn’t just do FIFA Rankings, instead coming up with some secret formula based on past performances which suited New Zealand better (remember the OlyWhites made the knockouts of the last Olympics).

If you were hoping for a different look to this Ferns squad, you were hoping for something very unrealistic. The fact is, this squad has already steadily evolved into a different look over the past couple of years. There was no single origin point where Jitka Klimkova dropped a bunch of veterans and replaced them with uncapped prospects all at once. Instead it’s been a slow but careful integration as the likes of Jacqui Hand, Malia Steinmetz, Indi Riley, and potentially now Macey Fraser have crept into important roles. Claudia Bunge and Anna Leat are right there on the fringes of the first eleven, while the depth of squads is now populated by the likes of Michaela Foster, Katie Kitching, Brianna Edwards, Kate Taylor, Mackenzie Barry, etc. This looks nothing like what this team used to be. Keep that in mind when people continue to rip on their long-term record (that and the other recurring point, which is: yeah, we’re not that good compared to the best teams in the world, what makes anyone think we should be?).

That transitional process should have begun around about when those last Thailand games happened, at least for the midfield and attacking areas. At the time it looked like it was well underway but then Heraf set everything back and Tom Sermanni, on a very short schedule, ended up having to coax strikers out of retirement for the 2019 World Cup... who then retired again, amongst others, and we were left without any idea who the next players in line were (other than Hannah Wilkinson). Hence younger players were thrust forward before they were ready. Hence this team has struggled to score goals ever since. You know the tune by now. But that’s why the performances of players like Hand, I.Riley, and Fraser during those Oceania games (and during the World Cup for the first two), as well as for their professional clubs, are so encouraging. We’re out of that phase now.

So far there have been six instances of Wilkinson, Hand, and I.Riley all starting in the same team (not necessarily in the front three together as Riley’s played some midfield). Those include wins over Vietnam, Norway, Vanuatu, and Solomon Islands, as well as 1-0 defeats against Italy and Philippines. Expect to see that trio plenty more over the next World Cup cycle and with them, surely, will come a little more potency in front of goal. It’s nice to at least have an idea of what the best eleven looks like again.

There are no debutants in this squad although Bri Edwards and Macey Fraser will be playing their first games outside of the Oceania conference. Well, Fraser will... not sure if Edwards will get onto the pitch as the third-choice goalie. But she has very clearly surpassed Erin Nayler now in the pecking order.

While there are no debutants, there are a few familiar players who won’t be there from the other end of the spectrum. Betsy Hassett is pregnant, congrats to her, so she’s obviously out of commission for a wee while. She joins Olivia Chance in the impending maternity club. There’s also no place for Annalie Longo, presumably due to injury. She left the Ferns squad early during the Olympic quals with NZ Football calling it: “a precaution to avoid aggravating a calf strain”. Clearly the precaution must not have worked because six weeks later she has yet to play again for the Wellington Phoenix. And although Ali Riley has returned to fitness to be selected for this tour, her co-captain Ria Percival is again sitting out.

Ria Percival is 34 years old and coming off a serious knee injury. Her whole game is based on combativeness and workrate. She rushed back in time to excel at the World Cup (one missed penalty aside) but her club form has not been the same. There’s been a spark missing in her performances for Spurs, leading to her going on loan to Crystal Palace for game-time, which she’s getting but she’s getting it at right-back instead of in the midfield (despite having dropped a division). It’s just not normal to see this from Percy. Prior to her injury she was one of the top tacklers in the WSL: across the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, she won 72 tackles at 78% success. That’s 2.8 tackle attempts per ninety minutes. Very limited sample size, but in the 230 WSL minutes since she’s attempted two tackles, winning one. Hopefully Rugged Ria returns in time for the Olympics. If not she’s been an incredible servant, one of the best ever, but she can’t be seen as an automatic pick. Not whilst Malia Steinmetz is doing all that and more.

Other recalls have deservedly been handed to CJ Bott and Meikayla Moore, both of whom are having their best ever seasons at club level. Bott’s dropping didn’t make much sense at the time, though nobody should be immune to that treatment if there are things the coach wants to see which aren’t happening. For Bott, the best guess would be how she fits into the team’s attack because defensively there’s absolutely nothing to fault. Anyway, she’s been undeniable for Leicester City lately. Genuinely one of the best ball-winners in the world. Likewise Meikayla Moore, even if her dropping prior to the World Cup was more justified. She hadn’t been playing enough for her clubs during the previous two seasons, wasn’t performing to her capabilities for the Ferns, and there were other more versatile centre-back options for the squad. Since then she’s been outstanding for Glasgow City as they try to win another Scottish league title and qualify for the Champions League. Powerful defensively with that deceptively excellent long ball distribution also on display.

You want players who’ve been dropped to respond with their performances and these two have done exactly that. Also helpfully overcoming injuries which prevented these recalls from already having happened. Malia Steinmetz and Paige Satchell are also back after injury absences last time, though Grace Neville and Annalie Longo have gone the other way.

The five additions since the Oceania OQTs are: Ali Riley, Paige Satchell, CJ Bott, Meikayla Moore, and Malia Steinmetz.

The five subtractions since the OOQTs are: Betsy Hassett, Annalie Longo, Liz Anton, Ava Collins, and Grace Neville.

GOALKEEPERS

• Brianna Edwards – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (1 cap/0 goals)

• Victoria Esson – Rangers, SCO (22/0)

• Anna Leat – Aston Villa, ENG (15/0)

One of the slippery aspects of the Olympics is that there are only 18-player squads, plus four travelling reserves. That’s going to cause some debate as to which players get trimmed, though not so much in the goalkeeping stocks where it’s clear we’ve got two goalies duking it out for the starting gig and then a younger third option. The depth chart is established. Just a matter of whether Esson is still keeping Leat at a perceptible distance.

It did look as though she wasn’t when Leat got both starts against Colombia last December, though they split duties again in the Olympic qualifiers with Esson starting the final. It remains neck and neck. For their clubs, both are second choices although each have gotten good opportunities thanks to deep cup runs. Esson could potentially even start for Rangers in the League Cup final this very upcoming weekend. Would be a nice note to take into this tour if she can win a trophy.

Meanwhile Leat’s chipped away where she could for Aston Villa with Dutch number one Daphne van Domselaar signed to play ahead of her. DVD has been pretty great for the Villans this season... possibly too great because now the rumour is that Arsenal are going to step in and sign her in the summer. In which case she will have already played her last game for the club because DVD just underwent hip surgery which will rule her out the rest of the way... clearing the path for Anna Leat to play out the rest of the campaign. She got the start in a 2-1 win vs Everton last weekend, her second WSL appearance of the season, and Villa have six more games after that – including against Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City. Leat’s been backup to two different goalies across her two years with Villa, now here’s her chance to audition for the tahi spot next time around.

Brianna Edwards is also a backup for her club. That’s probably not ideal, especially when the next goalie in line is Erin Nayler who is third-choice at best for Bayern Munich. But it’s all situational. Edwards has impressed heaps whenever she’s been asked to step up and the gap between her and import starting GK Rylee Foster feels like it is closing all the time. She’s every bit as likely to graduate into starting duty next season as Leat is. Potentially more so (admittedly at a lower level). Pretty happy with that. This is a good crop to take us through this World Cup cycle.

DEFENDERS

• Mackenzie Barry – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (14/0)

• CJ Bott – Leicester City, ENG (42/3)

• Katie Bowen – Inter Milan, ITA (105/4)

• Claudia Bunge – HB Køge, DEN (28/0)

• Michaela Foster – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (15/1)

• Ally Green – AGF, DEN (11/2)

• Meikayla Moore – Glasgow City, SCO (63/4)

• Ali Riley – Angel City, USA (159/2)

• Rebekah Stott – Melbourne City, AUS (100/4)

Lots of defenders in this squad, so many that Kate Taylor gets to be classed as a midfielder. That’s where she played during the last tour so it makes sense. Obviously she can cover CB as well, though between Bowen/Stott as first choice and Bunge/Moore as backups there’s not much need for that. Similar goes for Mack Barry who almost exclusively plays as a right-back for the national team.

Keep in mind that someone will undoubtedly get injured before the first game, they always do, but as things stand we should see a return to the World Cup back four of: Bott, Stott, Bowen, Riley. A quartet which conceded just once in 270 minutes during that tournament but which hasn’t been used since they bottled it in a 3-0 defeat to Chile in the very next game. Neither Riley nor Bott have played since that tour, which entails two games against Colombia and five against Oceania sides. They’re both still the best in their spots however it’s definitely been educational to get a look at the depth behind them.

Especially at left-back, because Ali Riley ain’t gonna hang around forever. At 36 she’s two years older than Ria Percival, albeit without any serious injuries to worry about. She has begun to miss quite a few national team games with minor knocks over the past two years but you can’t doubt the passion or the commitment... even if you do have to wonder if the Olympics might be her farewell. That might be why two left-backs have been picked behind her in Michaela Foster and Ally Green. Green did also play some left-wing during the OQTs, to good effect, though that was before many of the main forwards arrived.

Green offers drive and dribbling and directness. Foster is sturdier in possession and has that set piece threat. Good contrasting skill sets. Riley is somewhere in between, with a smart sense of positional and possession play but also the energy to burst forward and whip the ball into the penalty area. That also seems to sum up how CJ Bott plays for Leicester City, where she rarely overlaps but often gets up in support. Tends to tuck inside a lot. Likes to send a cross into the danger zone, but just like Riley isn’t always accurate enough with them. We’ll see if Klimkova’s got anything funky up her sleeve with the fullbacks.

Otherwise it’s all status quo. Katie Bowen is out there in that Inter Milan jersey each and every week. Rebekah Stott still leads the entire A-League in passes completed, with only her Melbourne City teammate Taylor Otto even getting within 250 passes of Stott’s 1194 leading mark. Bunge is back in action with HBK after their winter break. Moore is also starting every meaningful game for Glasgow City (who are on an 11-game winning streak in the SWPL). Barry’s been holding it down for the Wellington Phoenix in case she’s needed at CB here. The next options in line are all injured, players like Rebecca Lake and Marisa van der Meer. Liz Anton didn’t make the cut here, she’s seen more as a left-back for the Fernies and they’ve already got three of them in this squad.

MIDFIELDERS

• Daisy Cleverley – HB Køge, DEN (36/2)

• Macey Fraser – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (3/2)

• Katie Kitching – Sunderland, ENG (6/2)

• Malia Steinmetz – FC Nordsjælland, DEN (27/0)

• Kate Taylor – Wellington Phoenix, NZ/AUS (15/1)

One critique of Jitka Klimkova which is actually valid is that she can be reactive with her tactics. Always alternating between a 4-4-2 and a 4-3-3, she often swaps from one to the other immediately after a bad result. Then continues like that until the next one. Still reckon that 3-5-2 they played against Portugal had serious potential but unfortunately we got thrashed that day (because of a weakened line-up rather than the shape) and we’ve not seen it again since.

In general, 4-4-2 works better against better teams and 4-3-3 works better against weaker teams. It’s about whether you’re expecting to control the game or not. This is probably a 4-3-3 type situation. There aren’t a heap of midfield options available, but the balance is pretty sweet between a defensive shield like Taylor, a defensive shield who can also push forward a bit in Steinmetz, a classy all-rounder in Cleverley, and the more attacking options of Fraser and Kitching. Indi Riley could also see some time as an attacking midfielder which would allow room for Grace Jale or Paige Satchell to slip into the front three.

We know what Steinmetz is capable of as a possession-winning vacuum in the midfield, so it was cool to see her flexing some attacking influence for FCN last week – getting an assist and also helping create another goal in a 2-2 draw vs Fortuna Hjørring. Thanks to that recent Oceania excursion, Steinmetz is now second only to Bunge for the most caps in this squad without ever having scored a goal. Weirdly that even includes the goalkeepers. There’s untapped potential on both counts though, as Steinmetz continues to expand her game in Europe and with Bunge having already shown herself to be a target from set pieces whilst she was with Melbourne Victory.

It does look strange not seeing Hassett or Chance or Longo or Percival in there. Even as this lot have begun to establish themselves (more than ‘begun to’ in Steinmetz’s case), there’s almost always been at least one of those vets around them to keep things steady. Not this time though. It’s a big opportunity for all five of them, especially with Olympic squad places on the line. Kitching already seems like a regenerated version of Betsy Hassett with her close control and eye for the creative. Fraser missed the business end of the OQTs with concussion but while she was there she looked equally as effective as she has done for the Wellington Phoenix all season. Given how she plays and what she can do (particularly the long shots – an alternative goal-scoring method that this team has been begging for at any stage that Liv Chance has been off the pitch for actual years), Macey Fraser could become an instantly important player for the Ferns.

FORWARDS

• Jacqui Hand – Lewes, ENG (23/7)

• Grace Jale – Perth Glory, AUS (28/9)

• Ruby Nathan – Canberra United, AUS (5/1)

• Gabi Rennie – Åland United, FIN (33/2)

• Indiah-Paige Riley – PSV Eindhoven, NED (21/6)

• Paige Satchell – London City Lionesses, ENG (48/2)

• Hannah Wilkinson – Melbourne City, AUS (122/31)

As always, the forwards are where the fun happens. We’ve established the front three, with Grace Jale probably joining Wilkinson and Hand if I.Riley plays in the midfield. All four of them were very good during that last tour, with Hand proving to be the most efficient creative force while IPR overcame a sloppy first game to be right there with her. Wilkinson didn’t play heaps after being a late arrival, but despite only scoring twice the team was always more dangerous with her out there. Jale top scored with seven strikes but it does need to be said that she should have scored plenty more, with her finishing not matching the positions she was able to get into. Still, she did at least get into those positions.

Wilkinson recently scored a match-winning double for Melbourne City and, at the time of writing, has eight goals for the season. Probably a couple below where she’d want to be but she’s going well. Hand has had an immediate effect on Lewes since joining them, while IPR is a regular starter for PSV and has been chipping in with regular goals. However Jale has gone 13 games since her last ALW goal for an out-of-form Perth Glory team.

Beyond them we get into the bench options where things are murkier. Ruby Nathan has been getting a few starts for Canberra United lately, now that they’re out of final contention, and does have three assists to her name this term. But at 18 years of age she’s very young to suddenly be getting picked for three consecutive squads. Thing is, none of these other forwards are number nines like Nathan, hence why she’s there. It’s a positional idea... with Nathan holding down the fort while Milly Clegg remains injured (though Clegg is now over there with Racing Louisville so she’s getting closer and closer).

Glad to see Paige Satchell settling in nicely with London City Lionesses. She’s a regular for them and they seem to love her. Everyone loves Paige Satchell at first because of the sizzling speed and deceptive strength... though she is showing signs of improving her end product as well. There’s some selection fatigue with a player like Satchell, with her two goals from 48 caps, but she undoubtedly remains one of our best 24 players.

It’s harder to make that case for Gabi Rennie, especially before her first professional season with Åland United has even kicked off. She did get a couple of assists during the OQT and it’s important we recognise that she’s a winger, not a striker. But, yeah, there will be some A-League players annoyed at that. Alyssa Whinham’s resurgence has probably come too late for this squad, though Emma Main and Deven Jackson’s season-long efforts must have had them in consideration. Hannah Blake too, who was picked for the Colombia tour but then got injured and hasn’t been back since. Do have to admit with HB that her best game came in week one and the output for Adelaide United has slipped up since. She’s playing for a bad team which is half the problem. Also, Klimkova will probably look more towards those types of fringe players after the A-League is over.

Just realised something else: with Ava Collins not making the cut, and Gabi Rennie having graduated and signed with Jacqui Hand’s old club, there’s not a single USA college player in this group. In fact, all 24 players are professionals. From this day onwards that’ll probably become the normal state of affairs with more pros to choose from than ever before.

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