In potentially the biggest regular season game that the Wellington Phoenix have ever played, they were dealt gut punch as Mikael Doka cut inside and buried a stoppage time winner for Central Coast Mariners. A brilliant goal, to be fair, though that didn’t make it any less brutal of a loss having fought back from a goal down to be on the brink of a point that would have kept them in control of the title race. Instead this result ensures the race for the Premiers’ Plate will go all the way down to the wire. A memorable finish to a fascinating fixture… and there’s a pretty good chance that these two teams meet again before this A-League season is over.

First things first, this loss does mean that Central Coast move top of the ladder. They’d been marching towards that fate until a 2-0 defeat against Sydney FC last week gave the impetus back to the Welly Nix. CCM then flirted with further calamity when they found themselves 1-0 down to Melbourne City midweek. However, the Mariners quickly equalised and then went on to win 2-1 thanks to a Maximilien Balard goal in stoppage time. Two stoppage time winners in the space of four days? Yep. That’s what the Phoenix are up against here. Bit of the old championship pedigree.

The Mariners do have a slightly superior goal difference to the Wellington Phoenix, though the tie-breaker is wins and that’s also in their favour. Goal difference can be overcome with matching results but wins cannot. Unless CCM draw all three of their remaining games they cannot finish level with Wellington and lose the tiebreaker (and even then they’ll probably take it on GD). Nah, the Phoenix are almost certainly going to need to finish outright first in order to claim that shining silverware for their own cabinet.

While their grasp on first got a whole lot flimsier this week, the Phoenix’s chances of a top two finish are stronger than ever. With Sydney FC losing to Newcastle Jets, the Phoenix cannot finish lower than third and with a five-point bridge back to Melbourne Victory they’re not far off mathematically confirming themselves in the top two. The Wellington Phoenix have never finished higher than third (which they did four years ago in Ufuk Talay’s first season). They’ve already tied their club record points haul and are one win away from their best wins tally also. They’re guaranteed finals football for the fifth time in six years. They’re guaranteed a home finals game for the first time since 2015.

Glorious areas... although not yet glorious enough. In the year they set that wins and points tally (also the year they played their most recent home finals game), they were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. In the year they set that placings record, they were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. Beating all three and again failing to do anything in the finals would be much more of an opportunity lost than an achievement gained, especially if they also miss out on first place which would at least give the club its first-ever trophy and therefore something tangible to fall back upon.

With a win against Central Coast, that top spot would have been almost guaranteed. With a draw they’d have still been in the box seat. Having instead lost, they’re left needing CCM to slip up somewhere despite an easier remaining schedule. Then again, AFC Cup semi-finals will have something to say about that. There are three weeks of ALM regular season left and in between each of those weeks the Mariners have to face off against FK Abdysh-Ata Kant of Kyrgyzstan. It’s a fixture balance they’ve managed very well to this point but tired legs are still tired legs. Rotation is paramount. It ain’t over until the final whistle (as the Phoenix were just reminded).

CENTRAL COAST MARINERS REMAINING FIXTURES

• CCM vs Western United (11th) | A| 13 April

• CCM vs Adelaide United (9th) | H | 21 April

• CCM vs Newcastle Jets (10th) | A | 27 April

WELLINGTON PHOENIX REMAINING FIXTURES

• WPX vs Melbourne Victory (3rd) | H | 12 April

• WPX vs Newcastle Jets (10th) | A | 19 April

• WPX vs Macarthur FC (5th) | H | 27 April

The Mariners have the easier match-ups although two of them are away and there’s a trip to Kyrgyzstan on the 18th of April to deal with, as well as a potentially crucial return leg on the 24th if that away game doesn’t go to plan. Five games in the space of 15 days is no simple task. The Phoenix have two tricky games against prospective top six teams but both are at home and they get a full week of rest in between each. Don’t be counting any chickens just yet. Shenanigans may yet be afoot.

That game against Central Coast had a finals atmosphere about it. Maybe not quite in the way that neutral fans might have hoped for (until the last twenty-odd minutes) but, let’s be honest, finals games are very often cagey and tactical affairs. So then, brethren and sistren, what did we learn from a feisty Saturday night at Gosford in the shadows of the oversized sauce bottles?

The Alex Rufer-Sized Hole In The Midfield

With the captain suspended following his slippery stomp last week, the Nix lacked nothing for leadership thanks to: a powerful performance from Scott Wootton with the armband, the return off the bench of Tim Payne, Kosta Barbarouses’ cleverness up top, and enthusiastic efforts from imports Bozhidar Kraev and Youstin Salas. No dramas there. But the actual literal midfield activities of Rufer were not to be overcome by a collective shift from everyone else.

Rufer has presence in that defensive midfield role. He shields the backline. He moves the ball around smoothly. He’s top five in the league for tackles per ninety minutes and this is from a bloke who plays almost every minute he’s available for. Even when he doesn’t win those tackles (his success rate is 63.3% per Fotmob), he’s still affecting the play with a disruptive act. This may have been a rare error on the part of Giancarlo Italiano but Nico Pennington took over that role against CCM and... was a bit of a turnstile. He was dribbled past six times and only won 4/14 ground duels. Good in possession but without nearly enough touches. Probably would’ve been better having Salas or Mo Al-Taay there instead (then again, Salas was on a mission to fold folks in half with his tackling so it could’ve been two CDM reds in a row with him there).

Not that it’s an issue they necessarily need a solution for. Alex Rufer is a key player for this side and he wasn’t there, which was always going to make the team worse. It did make them worse. But he’ll be back for the run-in and the difference will be felt if/when these two teams meet again, when Alex Rufer’s presence will be the biggest reason to think the Phoenix can flip the result around.

Perseverance, Resilience, Belief

Yeah okay they didn’t get any points for it, but the response after they finally conceded an hour into a game in which they’d spent largely in defensive mode was still hugely impressive and exactly why they’ve been able to remain so consistently good throughout the season. Physically, mentally, and tactically. This team does not quit.

We could blame the back five for being too negative for the first two-thirds of this match though that’s probably unfair given how well they defend in those zones. And also given how that formation has earned them some tough points on the road already this season. After all, it worked against Central Coast last time for a clean sheet in a Waitangi Day nil-all draw.

However it was the switch to a four with twenty to go, as Oskar van Hattum replaced Lukas Kelly-Heald, that flicked the switch in Gosford. Suddenly they showed a whole lot more attacking intent and that culminated in a spectacular team goal, with OVH setting up Ben Old for the final act of a long passing move.

Adversity seems to make this Nix team stronger. They don’t lose their heads when they concede. They don’t panic when the other team has a spell of control. They know that they’re capable of competing with any team in this league at any venue and we see that confidence exuded every week... despite the fact that it’s a team half-stocked with academy players. Matt Sheridan made his first ALM start here, getting the nod at right back, and looked entirely at home (albeit his physicality’s gotta go up a notch if he’s to stick around consistently – a common academy player work-on). Chiefy also trusted Fin Conchie and Oskar van Hattum off the bench, even with import David Ball sitting there unsummoned. He’s backed Alex Paulsen and Finn Surman and Ben Old from day one. No worries whatsoever.

Form Against The Top Six

Would just add that the Nix’s away form this term reads: DDWWLDWDWDLL. Nowhere near as bad as the women’s team but deffo not as emphatic as they are at home. Part of that is a more cautious approach on the road in trickier conditions, hence a lot of those draws to ensure that they keep grinding out points. Fact is, if they can finish first then they won’t have to worry about playing away in the finals anyway.

On that note, it’s interesting to see how this team has tracked against the sides they’re likely to face in the finals. Western Sydney are four points clear of seventh-placed Melbourne City right now so there’s a good chances the top six is already set, although WSW do still have to face City, Sydney, and Victory so perhaps there are a few more twists in the tale to come. As it stands, this is the top six and how the Nix have gone against them split into home and away...

• Central Coast: D 0-0 (H) | L 1-2 (A)

• Melbourne Victory: D 1-1 (H) | D 1-1 (A)

• Sydney FC: W 2-1 (H) | L 1-3 (A)

• Macarthur: W 3-0 (H) | W 2-1 (A)

• Western Sydney: W 2-0 (H) | D 0-0 (A)

We’re talking three wins and two draws at home, against one win, two draws, and two defeats away… with one more home game against both Macarthur and Victory to follow. That’s not bad. Especially the unbeaten home stuff. Four clean sheets and the only two times they’ve been shut out against the top sides were in goalless draws. Historical spillover suggests that they wouldn’t want a bar of Melbourne Victory or Sydney FC in a knockout game but this season’s performances suggest they should be confident no matter who they face.

Defensive Sponges

A quick look at some of the stats here might suggest that the Mariners were all over the Nix in this match, swarming them like bees to a hive. Specifically the fact that they had 23 shots compared to just 9 for the Nix. We know better than that though, don’t we? Because we’ve spent these past several months engaged in a real-time educational journey about the value of shots against Chiefy’s Welly Nix side. They always allow a high number of shots... but they don’t allow very many good shots. Lots of low-percentage efforts from daring teams to shoot from positions the Nix are comfortable with, whilst loading up bodies in the areas where they don’t want to see the other team getting anything (namely: the penalty area).

12 of CCM’s 23 shots were from outside the area. There were some sneaky ones there, not gonna lie. Doka’s winning goal for example. The free kick he took earlier in the match that hit the post as well. Central Coast are a very good team and they can make things happen where others cannot. Yet for the most part the Nix had them where they wanted them (four of the shots from inside the area were blocked). Sure, they ride their luck at times. There’s no doubt that they’d have preferred to have kept more of the ball in this match. But they need less luck than most thanks to how structured and strategic they are in these areas... and if you want to read more about the Nix’s defensive mana then check out this recent article for exactly that.

The Phoenix did lose this match so we can’t get carried away. But amidst another sturdy ninety minutes it took a belter of a goal to beat them - they won’t concede twice whilst playing that way very often. Although, since we’re on the topic, it’d be rude not to mention that Central Coast were outstanding at the back themsleves. Brilliant in their challenges and every bit as structured as the Nix were. The funny thing about these two dominant A-League defences is that CCM concede the fewest amount of shots, while the Phoenix allow the second-most in the competition... yet the outcomes are almost identical. Brian Kaltack had another superb performance in this match. Crazy how he’s gone from NZ National League to Best Defender in the A-League without any steps in between.

Academy Goal Contributions

Flash back to that goal again, with Van Hattum assisting Old, and you’ll see an all-academy combination. Admittedly the move that led to the goal involved most of the team... but the specific assist to goal was born of WeeNix pathways. That seems to be the first time that’s happened this season, at least according to the official stats... though overall we’re now up to 6 goals and 10 assists from academy players which is the equal-most since Sarpreet Singh departed. The strength of this current crop is more in the defensive areas (think Alex Paulsen, Finn Surman, Lukas Kelly-Heald, Isaac Hughes) but the forwards are doing their bit too.

Ben Old has five goals and three assists. His breakthrough has also already gotten a write-up, suffice to say that he’s caught the efficiency bug along with his mates. He’s gotten so much more deliberate in how he hunts for goals, when he shoots and when he passes. The numbers speak for themselves...

• Ben Old in 2021-22: 1 goal from 1.23 xG (18 shots, 4 on target)

• Ben Old in 2022-23: 1 goal from 0.97 xG (17 shots, 1 on target)

• Ben Old in 2023-24: 5 goals from 3.12 xG (35 shots, 11 on target)

Great stuff from Oldy... but definitely don’t sleep on the increasing influence of Oskar van Hattum either, he’s up to four goal contributions now.

Righto, quick final note to say that if you rate the yarns on TNC then please consider supporting us on Patreon or with a Paid Substack because otherwise we can’t afford to deliver them, ya know?

Also helps to whack an ad, Buy Us A Coffee, and to like/share/comment as you see fit

Keep cool but care