You don’t need to worry about the Premier League title. If there was any chance that Chelsea might slip up after losing to Spurs in the New Year, it’s since been cast away as Antonio Conte’s lads immediately regained their stride. After Arsenal beat them 3-0 in September (wow, what a long time ago that was), the Blues then switched to three at the back and reeled off 13 consecutive wins. Then they lost 2-0 at White Hart Lane on January 5 and are undefeated in all competitions since.

With 11 games to play and a 10 point lead now, it’s gonna take something miraculous/horrendous to stop them now… but if you think that means that the rest of the top six have nothing to play for then, mate, slap yourself upside the head this very instant. The title race is almost over and this is still gonna be a goddamn fascinating last couple of months.

Jose Mourinho: “To finish second is better than to finish third, and to finish third is better than fourth and fourth is obviously better than not being in top four and not going to the Champions League. The second position is very difficult but it’s very possible. First is impossible. Second is possible and we have to fight for it.”

That’s a man whose team is currently in sixth place and battling not only in the FA Cup, where they play Chelsea away on the weekend, but also in the Europa League where they’re in the midst of a round of 16 clash with Russian side FC Rostov (that’s a lot of travelling in one week). United haven’t lost in the Premier League for 17 games now yet they’ve sat sixth pretty much that entire time. Had they won against Bournemouth last weekend – which they absolutely should have – then they would have risen above Arsenal, alas.

That’d be the same Arsenal that just got knocked out of the Champions League in humiliating circumstances and that there coming in the days after their star player was dropped from the starting XI in a PL defeat to Liverpool after having a hissy fit at training. Alexis Sanchez’s future with the Gunners is in doubt these days – as is his manager’s. That’s now seven straight years they’ve been eliminated in the first knockout stage of the UCL and while fans can roll with the changing tides between seasons, what they cannot abide is stasis. They’ve also had 20 years in a row finishing inside the top four but of course that defeat to Liverpool dropped them to fifth and in serious danger of breaking that.

Liverpool were deep in their own dramas with only one win in 2017 until they went and beat Arsenal. Sometimes that’s all it takes and for a team who seem to make a habit of losing to the teams in the relegation zone, they also have the best record of any team in the top six in games against each other. There’s no doubt (to those with detached perspective) that Liverpool are a team fast improving under Jurgen Klopp and teams definitely worry about playing them. There’s also no doubt that Klopp will look to get busy in the transfer market and plug a few obvious holes in the squad but the standard of players they can sign – and thus the entire Klopperpool project – might depend on whether they can sneak into the Champions League places from here.

Tottenham and Manchester City probably both hold outside hopes that they can catch Chelsea and they’re surely the only two teams left with a chance. However all it’d take is to lose sight of the proverbial ball for a second and the chasing pack could overtake them. A couple of unfortunate injuries (Gundogan and Jesus, mainly) have really damaged City’s chances and Pep Guardiola is spending the back half of his first season in England relying on a midfielder in Yaya Toure who he once said would never play for him again until his agent apologised. There’s been no apology, but Pep hardly had a choice. Same as Liverpool, this is a manager who wants specific things from his players and the squad he inherited did not give him that – but you can’t overhaul a team in one season or things’d be disastrous. They’re also desperate for Champions League but that defence is hardly inspiring much confidence. Yet the form of guys like Leroy Sane, Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling sure does.

As for Spurs, it’s been a long time since they last avoided the unfortunate St Totteringham’s Day. Gotta finish above Arsenal to keep it from happening but given prime opportunity last time out, they somehow conspired to completely bottle it. Even Arsenal fans had accepted that this was the year the Spursers did it… but no. Good thing for them is they still have the same strong squad, now with added depth, and in Harry Kane they possess the form striker in England. Last season was supposed to be the season, now perhaps this season will be the season. They can’t blow it from here, right? Well… can they?

And that’s the thing. There are only four Champions League places available and six teams that would all take massive hits without one. Maybe five places if Manchester United win the Europa League but they’re a while off that yet. Leicester City had a million things fall right for them last season. One of those was that every one of the top six had bad seasons except for the ever-consistent Arsenal who came second despite doing the same as they usually do for third or fourth (seriously, they had 71 points in 2015-16 – the previous three seasons they had 75 (3rd), 79 (4th) and 73 (4th)) and Spurs who ruined most of their goodwill with a limp to the finish line.

But when big teams have bad seasons they tend to react with furious panic. Chelsea and Liverpool sacked their managers in the first half of the season and gave up hope of championships even earlier than the pessimists would have planned. They also both signed high profile new managers. Jurgen Klopp got two-thirds of a season to begin spreading his magic while Antonio Conte arrived after the Euros to a team replenished by Guus Hiddink’s calming nature. Conte, a bit of a disciplinarian himself, definitely benefited from Hiddink hitting the rest button after Mourinho. Neither was overly active in the transfer windows but the dudes they did get (N’Golo Kante, Gio Wijnaldum, Marcos Alonso, Joel Matip, etc.) have been pretty crucial.

As for the Manchesters, you don’t get much more dramatic than bringing in the most successful modern manager in club footy or breaking the world record transfer fee (while also hiring another of the most successful modern managers in club footy). Spurs kept things more stable but with a young team they were always expecting a further step forward and while Moussa Sissoko and Vincent Jansson have been less than anticipated so far, Victor Wanyama has been superb for them.

Only Liverpool are in action this weekend in the Premier League (although City play on Thursday morning NZ Time) because of the FA Cup. What that means is one last deep breath, one last pause to refocus, one last recalibration and one last look at the view from atop the hill before everyone storms headfirst down it. Chelsea are gonna win… but the next five spots could go in any arrangement from here and it’d be hard to feel surprised, no matter how much is at stake.

And that’s without even touching on the relegation battle.

Stray Week 28 Wildcard's Premier League Predictions

(Because everyone else is away on FA Cup business)

Manchester City 3-1 Stoke City

Hull City 1-2 Swansea City

Everton 1-1 West Bromwich Albion

Bournemouth 1-1 West Ham United

Liverpool 2-0 Burnley