It’s probably safe to say that the match against Portugal will be the All Whites’ last at the Confederations Cup. All the chatter about a kiwi team that’ll be tough to beat is nice but nobody expects them to actually win a game. Score a goal or two, hopefully avoid defeat against Russia and that should be a good tournament with all the experience this lot will gain ahead of their intercontinental playoff (knock on wood). Which is cool because it means there’ll be nothing to lose against Ronaldo and the lads here.

Portugal are in the tourney as European Champions, which is a bloody daunting thing to consider. The two continents you’d really rather avoid here are Europe and South America – plus the World Cup winners, naturally. Well, we had to get at least one of them and we got the best of Europe. Tell you what though, this isn’t nearly so bad as it sounds.

Think back to Euro 2016, the tournament that Portugal won to make the Confederations Cup (although, you know, the victory was its own reward…). Portugal weren’t actually all that flash at the Euros. They were a team that specialised in being tough to beat (sound familiar?), rather than going out there and slaying teams. Hard to recall now but they only made the knockouts as a top third-ranked qualifier.

The blueprint for New Zealand was set in the very first game Portugal played in France last year. The kiwis are gonna probably be a team that defends tightly and looks to hit teams on the break and from set pieces. They’ll be slugging away with an under-talented squad so team cohesion will be crucial. Yeah, sounds a lot like Iceland who held Portugal to a 1-1 draw at the Euros. Portugal had 27 shots (10 on target) compared to 4 (4 on target). They had 11 corners compared to 2. 66% possession, 605 passes attempted compared to 185. They completely dominated but were unable to find that precious winner after Birkir Bjarnason pegged back Nani’s first half goal. You may recall this little drama…

Cristiano Ronaldo, after the draw with Iceland: “Iceland didn’t try anything. They were just defend, defend, defend and playing on the counterattack. It was a lucky night for them. We should have three points but we are OK. I thought they’d won the Euros the way they celebrated at the end. It was unbelievable. When they don’t try to play and just defend, defend, defend, this in my opinion shows a small mentality and they are not going to do anything in the competition.”

Against Austria the Portuguese were held to a 0-0 draw, again with way more of everything: 23 shots to 3, 10 corners to 0, 59% possession, etc. Cristiano Ronaldo hit the post with a 79th minute penalty. Against Hungary they scored three, finally… but all three were equalisers as a much-needed sense of desperation, with a place in the knockouts on the line, got that clinical finishing going after all the frustration. Still finished below Hungary and Iceland though – only the 24 team format kept them in the tournament at all with three draws from three.

Chuck ‘em in the round of 16 and they needed extra time to beat Croatia 1-0. Ricardo Quaresma scored with three minutes left before it would’ve gone to spotties. This time it was Croatia bossing the game like Portugal had been doing to others in the groups. It probably suited them, to be honest. That Portuguese defence was their strength despite the presence of one of the two greatest goal scorers of his generation. José Fonte and Pepe, Raphaël Guerreiro and Cedric Soares as well. It was their ability to deny teams that got them through, not their ability to put teams away. Same deal in the quarters as Robert Lewandowski’s early goal was cancelled out by Renato Sanches and we were off to penalties where a perfect five from five put them in the semis.

It was there that Portugal had their best performance, seeing off the fairytale Welsh challenge with two quick goals after the break to Ronaldo and Nani. Then, famously, they beat France 1-0 in the final despite Ronaldo going off injured in the first half. Unwanted by Swansea City, substitute striker Eder scored a legendary goal and Portugal had its first ever major title.

The team that the All Whites will face will look a little different. Fernando Santos is still in charge and Cristiano Ronaldo still captains them. But they’ve made an effort to bring a little more youth into the side after relying on a few extra veterans in 2016.

Renato Sanches was a breakout player at the 2016 Euros. Bit of a tough season for him at Bayern Munich though and he’s been entrusted to the U21 squad instead. However we’re still looking at a team featuring the likes of Porto striker Andre Silva, new City forward (formerly of Monaco) Bernardo Silva, Sporting Lisbon winger Gelson Martins (whose goal knocked the NZ U20s out of the 2015 World Cup), João Mário (now of Inter Milan) and Barcelona’s André Gomes. Five players there all aged 24 or younger who could feature prominently. The defence is still pretty old and slow, granted Chris Wood isn’t the fastest forward out there himself. Could be a game for Marco Rojas to shine in, maybe.

Since winning that Euro 2016 tournament, Portugal have been more of an attacking force. Those young lads bringing some energy or whatever. They’ve had some big wins and scored some lovely goals… but the idea that they’ll demolish New Zealand doesn’t really fly. Going back to the start of the Nations Cup, the All Whites have kept clean sheets in eight of nine games against Oceanian opposition. Naturally the threat of Roy Krishna (whose penalty at the 2016 Nations Cup is the one goal that ruins this perfect record) is a little less potent than that of Cristiano Ronaldo but it still shows a team with a strong defensive mindset. In the middle of that has been a 2-1 defeat to Mexico and a 1-1 draw with USA, hardly blown out there either.

Combine that with Portugal’s Euro 2016 record and there’s no reason to think this’ll be a high scoring game at all. Keep in mind that a pair of 6-0 World Cup qualifier wins over the Faroe Islands and Andorra (Ronaldo with four goals against the latter, Andre Silva with a hatty in the former) aren’t as impressive as they sound, really. Those two nations would be minnows amongst minnows. A 3-0 win over Hungary (in Lisbon) was worth a bit of pride after the Euros result but they followed that with a 3-2 friendly defeat to Sweden.

Portugal probably rate themselves a shot at winning this thing and we play them last by when they should be into their rhythm. It was their third game in France where they hit Hungary with three goals. Of course, there’s also the chance they’ve already qualified by then and rest a few blokes, it all depends on the situation. At least their style of play should suit Anthony Hudson as much as it’s possible for a far better team like Portugal to suit a national team like New Zealand’s. Put it this way: it’s better than playing Germany or Chile.

This isn’t to say that the All Whites are in any way likely to get a good result there against Ronaldo and Friends… but we also shouldn’t assume they’ll get thrashed. And just quietly if we can steal a goal there then a very cheeky draw isn’t impossible. Remember Iceland.

Portugal’s Pre-Confeds Cup Matches:

• Portugal vs Cyprus (FR), 3 June
• Latvia vs Portugal (WCQ), 9 June

Scouting Report for Russia

Scouting Report for Mexico

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