First you win Manchester, then you conquer England.

Normally there’s an easing-in period to the Premier League, slowly building into itself sometime around November. That’s not to say that the early rounds aren’t important, a series of draws in the first few months probably took the sting out of Tottenham’s end of campaign title chase before it had even started last season, but with the enormous ways in which teams can change over the course of 38 games, these stages tend to be about gaining a foothold amidst the competition rather than any grand statements.

Remember when Manchester City went 456 minutes without conceding to begin 2015-16? Then they barely scraped into fourth place by the end of it? Yeah.

But this time it’s different. This time we’ve had three weeks of typically enjoyable and dramatic footy but it all kicks into top gear this weekend when the Manchester Derby arrives early. Appropriately after an international break which means we’ve had an extra week of classic match highlights on the telly and general hype mongering. For Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho, there hasn’t been a misstep yet between them but any thoughts of a honeymoon period will be atomised this weekend.

Thinking back again to City barely scraping through in fourth, that was at the expense of Manchester United. When City lost 4-2 to Southampton and then blew two leads to draw 2-2 at home to Arsenal, it seemed as though they’d lose that final Champions League spot to their arch rivals after all but United gave it right back with a 3-2 defeat at West Ham (the final game at Upton Park). City took fourth comfortably on goal difference.

(Funny story, Winston Reid scored the winner at Upton Park to effectively get Man City into the Champions League this season, while he was also the man on the end of Sergio Aguero’s stray elbow that’s gonna keep him out of this game. Can’t say too much fairer than that, Winnie.)

Normally the implosion of the defending champs, as happened to Chelsea, should be an open invitation to the next few teams but instead United produced their second lowest points total since 1990-91 (at least one Moyes record is still safe) and City their worst points total since 2008-09 when Mark Hughes was managing, Vincent Kompany was still a midfielder and their top scorers were Robinho and Stephen Ireland. Arsenal? Well they were the beneficiaries as they had their best-placed finish in a decade (second) except that their average points total in those intervening ten years was 73 and here they banked 71. They didn’t actually do any better than usual, the competition was just a little worse.

Which is the other side of the coin to Leicester City’s championship. Miracle that it was, it was also made possible by an enormous number of things aligning all at once. Among them were significant struggles for Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea all in the same season – as well as the remarkable consistency of the Arsenal and the stumble to the finish line (and out of the starting blocks) that Tottenham produced.

Neither Manchester club was going to take that lying down and each duly responded by announcing one half of this generation’s finest managerial duo. The fact that Pep Guardiola and Jose Mourinho also happen to have a rivalry that mirrors the state of each club was just a pleasant coincidence – although it now emerges as a fascinating narrative point ahead of their first English clash.

They almost met each other in preseason but that game in China was cancelled due to the state of the pitch that day, saving us all an unusual kind of low-stakes friendly derby. That would have been very weird. But then Pep and Jose have been curiously congenial since moving to Manchester. Probably fair enough as they’ve each had their own things to worry about. Both men are proper pros and mature fellas… but they’re also two blokes with unwavering belief in their own way of doing things (which has been justified over and over, to be fair) and any affront to that tend to be taken extremely personally. Hopefully Mark Clattenburg does something controversial (and not at a tattoo parlour either) which fires one of them up because nobody really believes that hatchets have been buried.

The fact that this game comes so soon in the season might have given it a preliminary feel except that for only the second time ever both City and United have begun a Premier League season with perfect records through three games. The memories of Pellegrini/Van Gaal are quickly fading. Only Chelsea, also rebounding from 2015-16 with a new manager and as few corners cut as possible, can match that nine point start. All three are immediately back in the title hunt.

And thus this match carries all the weight of a potential decider. Guardiola and Mourinho have restored their respective sides so quickly that there’s no reason to hold back at all. This is more than a game of pride and early initiative – the three points on offer here cannot be gotten back once they’re lost. Which brings us to the game itself…

The big news is that Sergio Aguero will not be available as he begins a three match ban for his stroppy reaction to Winston Reid’s marking. Another Winnie connection: the same retrospective ban thingy happened last season when Bastian Schweinsteiger took a pop at him. Round and round we go. Anyway, that’s the big tactical dilemma. Someone has to replace the guy who scores more goals per minute than anyone else in Premier League history. He’s also scored five time in his last four games against United, including a double in a 4-1 win in Sept. 2013 and the winner in Nov. 2014, a game City won 1-0.

There are a couple of options for Guardiola. One is the straight swap with Kelechi Iheanacho starting. That’s not what Pellegrini chose to do without Aguero in the Derby last season, Iheanacho only coming on for the last seven minutes in place of Wilfried Bony (now at Stoke) and that one ended 0-0. The young Nigerian’s come on strong since then and will be many people’s immediate choice here. However don’t at all write off the idea of Raheem Sterling playing in a good old fashioned false nine role. If so, there’ll be plenty of forward rotation between him and the likes of Nolito, Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva. Being able to fit all four in without exposing the defence would be ideal.

That kind of rotation has been common already for Pep’s City so it isn’t even much of a divergence. De Bruyne and Silva in particular seem to be encouraged to roam all over the place. So far Fernandinho has held the midfield all by himself in a 4-1-4-1 formation although we might see more cover in front of the backline this time. A backline that’s likely to feature John Stones and Nicky Otamendi, which should be the envy of every other defence in England – even the Bailly/Blind combo that’s been so good. Ooh and Claudio Bravo should make his debut. Right into the deep end there, son.

It’s out wide that City could be got at. The inside forwards and the inverted fullbacks mean that there isn’t a whole lot of width for City which is fine going forward as they have one of world footy’s most potent groups for picking apart defences but at the other end it’s notable that they didn’t choose to upgrade on any of their four fullback options: Gael Clichy (31 years old), Bacary Sagna (33), Pablo Zabaleta (31) and Aleksandar Kolarov (30). None of them is obviously past it and each has already contributed this season, though the way Pep’s getting them to tuck in almost as holding midfielders without the ball is about to get its first big test.

Hence why Anthony Martial, who just scored for France (assisted by Paul Pogba too), could be crucial. Playing in a front four that’s been otherwise inhabited by Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Wayne Rooney and Juan Mata, he’s the only one with true pace – although Antonio Valencia and Luke Shaw give plenty coming forward from right and left back too. Of course, the other area where United have a bit of speed and power surging forward is in central midfield where that Pogba fella will finally get to play a genuinely significant fixture for Man United. Having him storming through with Mata, Martial and Rooney around him suddenly makes Fernandinho’s task very difficult – hence he may well get a buddy this game.

The other options to get some pace into proceedings (it’s something United lacked big time under LVG) include starting perhaps Jesse Lingard in place of Mata, which takes away one of their best facilitators but it also gives them someone with more to offer without the ball. Then there’s the Marcus Rashford factor. He won’t start in place of Zlatan but he may get a run wide-right. That failed in an important game against Liverpool in the Europa League last season when he was subbed off at half time in a 2-0 defeat but he’s a more experienced dude now and just as Raheem Sterling is thriving under the guiding hand of Pep, Rashford will benefit from playing for a manager who will actually tell him what he expects him to do. Not having Henrikh Mkhitaryan complicates this though - he'd be the obvious choice otherwise. It's not 100% that he's out yet, so you never know.

Similarly, even though large portions of the squad were away during the international break, the extra time between fixtures has meant plenty of room to experiment with new formations. Jose Mourinho especially. It’s been 4-2-3-1 until now, a 4-3-3 isn’t out of the question – although it’s hard to see him starting two strikers as tempting as it must be to get both Zlatan and Rashford playing as high up the park as possible. Pep Guardiola, in keeping with tradition, is less likely to want to make drastic changes based on his opposition. He’s an optimist.

There is a slight doubt about whether Antonio Valencia will be available or not after getting back late from Ecuador duty, City have the same deal with Otamendi/Argentina. You'd expect both to play regardless. There’s also a possibility that Chris Smalling starts in place of Daley Blind for a bit of extra height and speed, though Blind’s form has been good enough to justify holding his place, particularly against City who are experts at dragging defenders out of place and punishing them for it. Blind reads a game as well as anyone.

Home field advantage? Yeah that's a factor. It usually is when either of these teams play at home, although maybe not as much against each other where both Sky Blue and Red have tasted victory on foreign soil several times in recent years. 6-1 happened at Old Trafford, where this game will take place. Last season's 0-0 was the only draw in the past 14 Manchester Derby meetings and only the second in the past 26 of them. Generally, somebody wins and in eight of the last 16 matches it has been the away team. 

And then we have Marouane Fellaini. Slowly winning fans over again by playing in a role that suits his game, rather than giving away free kick after free kick as a target man. Turns out he can even pick a pass here and there, which was never something we saw much from him under Van Gaal. He’s injured and expected to miss this one. Either Michael Carrick or Morgan Schneiderlin would be the likely replacement. Carrick offers more on the ball but Schneiderlin is a superb defensive mid and Mourinho doesn’t mind ceding a bit of possession in the important ones so that could give Schneiders the jump.

United are the team here who are showing the remnants of the old regime the strongest. They still take too long in building their attacks and can have difficulty busting through a stacked defence, as Hull City proved last game. That will take some time to get over. For City, the problems under Pellegrini weren’t necessarily tactical ones so Guardiola had more of a foundation waiting for him. As such it’s his team that have played for stretches at a time, like the first half against West Ham, as though they weren’t only the best team in England but one of the very best in Europe. Obviously they need to be doing that for a lot longer than 45 minutes to stick with Barca and Bayern but the early signs are there.

Yet they have one glaring weakness that Manchester United do not. John Stones is the tallest man in the City squad at 188cm. Kolarov and Iheanacho are 187cm, Claudio Bravo is 185cm. Across town, Zlatan measures up at 195cm with Fellaini at 194, Smalling and De Gea at 192 and Pogba at 191. They are a much taller team and two of the three PL goals that City have conceded have come from situations related to that: Raheem Sterling grappling with a much taller Ryan Shawcross and conceding an admittedly soft penalty vs Stoke, and Michail Antonio rising above the City defence at the far post to header for West Ham. As it happens, Ibrahimovic has already scored a couple of headers where he’s dominated his defender. Room to cross from out wide and men in the middle who'll make those crosses count. That’s a worry for the blue side of things.

There’s a chance we see debuts for Leroy Sane and Ilkay Gundogan, who will add so much to this City side when they’re ready – but the bench may be safest for now. Gundogan especially because to date the high press has definitely left a bit of room between the front five and the back five for City which Mourinho would want to expose on the quick counter - another reason to opt for pace. Gundogan is apparently ready to go health wise but match fitness is another matter on a scale this high.

If Fellaini isn’t there then that size advantage of United’s takes a blow too. Sergio Aguero’s absence is the telling one, however. If he were available then it wouldn’t be too hard to imagine City being able to pick apart the United defence. Without him, City stand to lose plenty of their offensive prowess. Not all of it, obviously, but enough that it’s no longer a clear advantage against the Red Devils.

Generally we’ve seen the same trend when Pep and Jose meet. Pep goes on the attack by establishing long possessions high up the park while Jose sits in and looks first to frustrate and then retaliate by hitting at the opposition’s weak spots. Either could triumph on any given day and this one is no different.

We may only be three games into the new Premier League season, but get ready because it’s all about to get rowdy in a hurry.