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Blackcaps vs Pakistan ODI Talking Points

Are you Michael Bevan?

No one did their Blackcaps careers any favours against the West Indies, everyone plodded along in bully-bliss as they beat up a reasonably average touring team. Pakistan will offer a slightly different challenge and with building towards the World Cup in mind, here are a few notable Blackcaps narratives to follow during the ODI series.

Martin Guptill's Hammies

I made the point earlier in the week that Guptill was in a battle with George Worker for a World Cup spot, which apparently didn't pay enough respect to Guptill's status as a ODI beast. This idea of Guptill vs Worker was based around the fact that Guptill now has a fairly substantial history of hamstring injuries and besides a niggling back complaint, the last on-going injury you want to have is with hammies.

These injuries take Guptill out of the team, giving those reps to Worker and if Guptill isn't playing, he can't score runs. If Guptill is healthy and scoring runs, there's no real contest between he and Worker because, well, he's Guppy. However, I certainly don't think that Guptill is a lock-in selection because he's got to prove that he can stay fit for a couple of months and given his hammy history, to assume that he'll stay healthy for 18 months is a stretch.

This flows on to Worker because if Guppy's all goodies, then Worker is as extra as your attention seeking homie. That's weird because we all know that Worker is a domestic cricket freak and deserves a consistent nod in ODI cricket as he's taken his chances as well as anyone else, which oddly enough has led to Worker replacing Doug Bracewell.

An opening batsman has been selected to replace a seamer. That's cool-ish, yet I feel as though it could lead to Worker playing as a middle order batsman who offers spin and that's like selecting Bracewell for his batting; back to Lesson's all-round fetish/selecting blokes out of position.

Ideally, Worker just offers cover for Guptill and everything stays simple and stable. 
Alternatively, a next-up bowler could have been selected to taste a Blackcaps camp. That's replacing a bowler with a bowler, ya know; Ish Sodhi, Seth Rance, Hamish Bennett, Scott Kuggeleijn, Logan van Beek, Ben Wheeler.

Doug Bracewell's Absence

Without Bracewell, there is a little battle between Lockie Ferguson and Matt Henry brewing for the third-seamer spot. With Bracewell, this is a cluttered group and now we get a bit of a shoot-out between Ferguson and Henry, depending on who gets the most game time. Ferguson has slid ahead of Henry in recent times as he's the sexier option, which neglects Henry's impressive limited-overs stats. 

These two will also enjoy a bit of time without Colin de Grandhomme, who Lesson are likely to prefer than all three of these bowlers because of what he offers with the bat. That yarn gets weird when CDG's bowling isn't close to being as good as that of Ferguson, Henry or Bracewell and his batting makes up the slack. The way to counter that for Ferguson and Henry would be to be so damn excellent with the ball, that they have to be selected and the conversation then turns from CDG vs them, to CDG vs Todd Astle or even Mitchell Santner.

Whatever the ramifications are, whether it's Ferguson or Henry who demands further selection will be a fun narrative to follow.

What is Todd Astle?

I'm not convinced that Todd Astle is a genuine contender for the World Cup and that time will prove me to be correct. 

I'm also completely open to being wrong and for Astle to establish himself as a rip-snorting leggy who can also play a crucial knock at #7, thus sealing a World Cup spot. If Astle can do that, then honkidory and this experiment starts against Pakistan - West Indies was the warm up. 

Astle is coming up against some of the hottest ODI batsmen in the world, who are far better equipped to deal with his leggies and wrongie than Windies were, plus it's going to be a lot different for Astle facing Mohammad Amir and Shadab Khan than whatever he faced against Windies. 

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This isn't a defining moment for Astle and he deserves to be given time to suss things out. It would be a completely redonkulous Lesson thing to do if they were to cut Astle mid-series, or after this series and bring in Sodhi. Neither Astle nor Sodhi have been consistent game time in ODIs to build experience and work through tough patches under the Lesson leadership; Astle is the guy right now and he deserves multiple series to demand further selection. 

I also hate the idea of how crazy it is to play two frontline spinners and this should be common practice if Santner and Astle are better than the seamers. I can not stress how beneficial it is to be a kiwi spinner extracting the pleasure of bounce from kiwi pitches and it's rather different facing spin in the sub-continent compared to bouncey spin - Nathan Lyon is a beast in Australia and Daniel Vettori's package relied on the bounce he could get from his height.
Good spinners will enjoy success in Aotearoa, so stay open minded and let the best spinners win.

Henry Nicholls The Finisher

Forget Tom Latham's move to #5, the funkiest middle order move has been Henry Nicholls setting up shop at #6 after the Champions Trophy. I'm very interested in how this plays out during this Pakistan series and beyond as Nicholls is low key well suited to a position in which he has to be able to hit boundaries at ease, while also offering enough craft to build an innings and roll through the gears as required.

Nicholls has a strike-rate of 87 in ODI and List-A cricket, while also owning a handy 126sr in T20 cricket - remember when he played BBL for Sydney Thunder? With the ability to access the boundary, all around the wicket, Nicholls could become a crucial cog in the Blackcaps ODI team and after tinkering with bits and bobs players, we now have a certified batsman at #6. Nicholls has also played a lot of cricket with Latham, so there is chemistry in the middle order which is important when sussing out that 25-40 over period.

#6 is also the spot most in danger and the margin for error with Nicholls is small. Lesson will happily chuck in more all-rounders if Nicholls can't snap up his opportunity and there will be external pressure from the likes of Mark Chapman, Tom Bruce, Tim Seifert, Glenn Phillips and Tom Blundell as the domestic season rolls on. 

Like everyone else, Nicholls deserves a decent crack and should be given the Pakistan and England series to suss things out. The Pakistan series won't be crucial in that regard, yet I am interested in how Nicholls steps up in a difficult position against a better team.

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