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Blackcaps vs England: First Test Preview

There is a certain level of status-quo in a kiwi summer where touring Test cricket nations from Asia tend to be bullied by Aotearoa's Blackcaps. Things aren't any different when West Indies tour Aotearoa and while it's beautiful to actually have a Test team who can handle their business on home soil, the vibe of not quite knowing what this Blackcaps Test team is genuinely capable of lingers.

England present a slightly different challenge to Sri Lanka, who have toured Aotearoa three times in the last 12 home series, or Bangladesh and West Indies who have popped in twice each during that period. The only times South Africa and Australia have toured in that 12-series window, saw the Blackcaps suffer defeat and the intrigue around this England tour stems back to the summer of 2017/18 when the kiwis did manage a series win over England.

There is another wee layer of nuance in that the England squad has a younger tinge, with folks most kiwis wouldn't know too much about. There are still the big donnies in Joe Root, Stuart Broad, Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes and Jofra Archer, which is enough to hold the fort for England while others like Rory Burns, Joe Denly and Zak Crawley suss out kiwi conditions.

For Aotearoa's batting line up, everything appears to be honki-dory with everyone chucking out the hefty averages of the top-five. This is one of the most impressive Test batting units most of us youngsters have ever seen in the whites and the balance of having world-class batsmen as well as steady lads who chip in, blended in with the swing bowlers is what makes the Blackcaps a nightmare to face in Aotearoa.

In no way am I suggesting that the batsmen below are set up for mediocrity, here's the Plunket Shield form these lads are bringing in...

Jeet Raval: 24 runs in 3inns @ 8avg | 7, 3, 14.

Tom Latham: 267 runs in 4inns @ 66.75avg | 20, 224, 23, 0.

Henry Nicholls: 134 runs in 4 inns @ 33.50avg | 103, 16, 15, 0.

BJ Watling: 100 runs in 5inns @ 20avg | 2, 44, 4, 21.

All four are proven Test batsmen at this stage who know what it takes to perform in Test cricket, so we have to lean towards these chaps stepping up to the higher level. This isn't the first time Raval has come into a Test summer after struggling in Plunket Shield as the 2017/18 season saw Raval average 19.33 in Plunket Shield, while also average 25.83 in Tests that summer; the only time Raval has averaged below 30 for a summer in three full kiwi summers.

Raval also struggled in Sri Lanka, scoring 37 runs in 3inns @ 12.33avg. Trent Boult and Will Somerville scored more runs than Raval in that series, which merely presents and interesting little juncture where Raval can snap into Test form or continue to struggle. Nicholls was the other notable batsman to struggle in Sri Lanka - well, Kane Williamson averaged 8 but he's an alien - with 83 runs in 3inns @ 27.66avg. Obviously that's no reason for concern right now, this is simply laying out the vista to help form a pre-Test picture.

There's a lot of chat about speed, with Archer coming to Aotearoa for the first time and Lockie Ferguson chillin' in the Blackcaps Test squad. Everyone's fetish to see heat fired down the wicket is being tickled right now and the idea of selecting Ferguson to counter the presence of Archer seems extremely basic. Speedsters only go well in Test cricket if they have another wrinkle to their bowling and I always fall back on Test batsmen being capable of dealing with fast bowling rather well. These are the best batsmen in the world and bowling fast isn't the full she-bang.

Archer moves the ball and gets steep bounce. Ferguson moves the ball and has a unique body type for bowling fast. Both are far more skillful that just bowling fast and it's generally silly to select one bowler because the other team's selected this bowler. This narrative does play into the rotation idea that has been raised, given we are graced with a nice flow of Test cricket and some joker even suggested that Ferguson would come in for Tim Southee to try and blast England away.

Again, Test batsmen tend not to get blasted away. Southee and Trent Boult were the best seamers in Sri Lanka, the only seamers in the group of six bowlers (both teams) who took 6+ wickets. The case could be made that Southee's just come off the T20I series with a high workload, but there's no reason right now to change the Boult, Southee, Neil Wagner formula; not when all three are in decent form.

The Bay Oval deck being flat is another minor narrative that has been tossed up, boosting the idea of Wagner and Ferguson spicing things up. One Plunket Shield game has been played at Bay Oval this season, with steady scores of 371, 202, 204 and 299 between Central Districts Stags and Northern Districts Knights. All 40 wickets were taken, with Boult and Wagner combining to take 13 of the Knights 20 wickets.

Seamers in that game accounted for 30 of the 40 wickets, while spinners took 6w on the last day. Who knows how the pitch will play and that game presents an argument both ways, especially when Wagner's taking 8w in Wag-nut fashion and perhaps more importantly, conditions seem rather lovely for that little pocket of Mother Earth. I settle on keeping things fairly stock-standard for this first game, then moving the series' changes can be made to suit whatever is required.

I'm not really sure why Mitchell Santner or Todd Astle were selected, so I can't really make a case for either to be ushered into the 1st 11. There's no need to regurgitate the confusion around selecting Santner and/or Astle and I reckon the best bowling group for this Test would be Southee, Boult, Wagner, Colin de Grandhomme and Santner. That feels like the most solid bowling group and playing five seamers does nothing for my funk levels as I always enjoy watching a spinner grafting.

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This flows into the other narrative in previewing this Test; spinners suck in Aotearoa. Basically, any bowler not named Southee, Boult or Wagner doesn't do so well in Aotearoa Test stuff and this tends to be thrown up as an indictment of these bowlers who offer supporting roles. Or it could be offered as Southee, Boult and Wagner being exceptional in Aotearoa - again, the best us youngsters have ever seen - and thus, any other bowler, primarily spinners aren't really required to take wickets.

Aotearoa has no shortage of capable spinners, two are in this squad, while Ajaz Patel and Will Somerville are arguably better spinners than Santner and Astle, while offering more tha capable batting. I'll chuck Ish Sodhi into this equation as well, because I simply want to see one spinner selected consistently and given time to suss out being a Test spinner. It's fine for me to say that Santner's averaging 57 in his last nine Tests, but has that had a detrimental impact to the Blackcaps success?

With the bigger picture in mind, the Blackcaps need to develop a numero tahi spinner for the Test championship. There needs to be time invested in a spinner to set them up for success and to be honest, as long as that spinner is bowling alright, they'll take a wicket or two here and there in conjunction with the seamers. I can't make sense of the selection ideas around the spinners, in dealing with what we have though, I'd love to see Santner (or Astle) given a dose of faith and confidence to contribute in Aotearoa.

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