Blackcaps In Australia: Forecasting Some Batting Fings
Ask around and most folks will tell you about Aotearoa's Test batting line up being one of, if not the best we've ever seen. That's a damn handy to have for a Test series in Australia and whether it's the presence of two already legendary figures in Ross Taylor and Kane Williamson, or the collectively solid nature from the top to BJ Watling, much of the confidence or optimism right now stems from a settled batting unit.
As I explored yesterday, the 1st 11 and more specifically the batsmen have all matured into their Test cricket careers. Jeet Raval is the least experienced with 22 Tests, followed by Henry Nicholls on 29 caps and then the group of Tom Latham, Williamson, Taylor and Watling have all played 40+ Tests. Other than Raval and Nicholls being more advanced in their careers, things don't get much better than this for a Blackcaps Test batting line up and such a line up is required to handled Australia's bowling attack.
Let's get this clear about what these Aussie bowlers are up to across the ditch...
Mitchell Starc: 26.82avg (in Aus).
Josh Hazlewood: 25.77avg.
Pat Cummins: 22.40avg.
James Pattinson: 21.79avg.
Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins are likely to play alongside spinner Nathan Lyon, while Pattinson and Michael Neser are also in the squad. Neser is yet to make his Test debut, but averages a lovely 26.40 in First-Class cricket. However you want to slice it, this Aussie seam attack, in Australia goes pretty well and while there is a lot of focus on the Blackcaps bowlers in terms of who will play etc, the kiwi batsmen face an incredibly niggly proposition.
But we've got this nek level Blackcaps batting unit, right? Unfortunately for Raval in his current slump, he is yet to play a Test in Australia and as a reminder to hold off making major judgements about Test cricketers until they have played in a variety of countries; Raval has only played Test cricket in three countries. Somehow Raval not only has to find form - which is a nightmare regardless of who the opposition is and where you're playing - but he has to do so on his first trip to Australia against a legit world-class bowling group.
Nicholls is also yet to play in Australia and this is one of the longest periods in which Nicholls hasn't scored 50+. Playing 6inns without a 50+ score back in 2016, Nicholls now has 5inns without a 50+ knock since the start of the series in Sri lanka and this serves as a nice reminder that Nicholls has consistently chimed in with whatever is required (hundy or halfie) at that moment throughout his career. Right now though, is wee lean patch and Nicholls heads into his first tour of Australia without a big ol' bucket of recent runs.
BJ Watling's worst record in a country, is his 16.60avg in Australia and in checking out these numbers I was kinda surprised to see that Watling has struggled in the home territories of cricket's big donnies in Australia and India. Watling averages 19.83 in India and the only nations where Watling hasn't scored 50+ are Australia and India.
In terms of a feeling; Watling and Latham feel like they are at the best stag of their career for an important tour of Australia. Latham's record in Australia isn't amazing, but a solid 31.16avg with a 50+ score in 6inns and both these lads have played three Tests in Australia which means they've at the very least been in that prickly rose-bush before.
Working in favour of the Blackcaps is that matua Ross and skipper Williamson have fabulous records in Australia. Williamson averages 55.55 in Australia, while Taylor averages 49.30 and this should provide a confident vibe throughout the batting group as the kiwis can draw on that experience. This also amps up a bit of pressure on the two leaders of the batting crew and while they have been part of a strong batting line up recently, we're moving into un-charted territory in terms of Taylor and Williamson being the two blokes who much of the confidence sits with when playing in Australia.
It's a weird idea to ponder because although we can point to the Test averages of the whole batting line up as an obvious sign of how good the Blackcaps have been, this period has coincided with Taylor somehow hitting a nek level and Williamson continuing on his upward trend. Both Taylor and Williamson are averaging over 50 since the start of 2016, both are averaging over 70 in 2019.
The whole batting line up has been undeniably good in recent years, yet the mechanism sparking that feels like it is the rather boggling work of Taylor and Williamson. No one really thought that Taylor and Williamson could steadily improve, surely? And if they maintain their previously high level of performance for 5-10 more years that would have been lovely. Instead, Taylor and Williamson said fuck that and have exploded with runs - that must have a flow on impact to the other batsmen and their performances.
In Aotearoa, perhaps we can cling to that idea of the whole batting line up being amazing ... because they are amazing in Aotearoa. Even around the world, contributions from the batsmen have been varied and we are only celebrating this batting line up because other than Raval, they have scored runs in different countries.
In Australia, my optimism stems from the idea that Taylor and Williamson are themselves best equipped for success in Australia. These two haven't been part of a batting unit like this for starters, nor have toured Australia with such confidence and ease in their craft. The Blackcaps will require runs from elsewhere and that is a key factor in deciding how competitive they can be. It will be Taylor and Williamson though who set the tone and ideally drag the others to that level.
Also somewhat notable is the lack of batsmen in the squad. Someone could be flown over, otherwise adding a batsmen would come in the form of Tom Blundell coming in as a fielder while Watling's still wicket-keeping. Or, Todd Astle slide in and if we're pinning the batting hopes on Astle in Australia, then that Blackcaps team isn't quite as funky.
Astle, Mitchell Santner and Colin de Grandhomme will be viewed as offering some type of batting cover. Promoting one of those blokes is very different to the settled batting line up we have seen and relied upon recently for success though. This scenario only feels possible through injury and it's rather clear that the batsmen will be given ample opportunity to work through a lack of runs across the series.
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Peace and love 27.