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Blackcaps In Australia: Forecasting Some Ideas

Optimism is high around Aotearoa for the Blackcaps snatch and grab mission across the ditch, where they will take an Australian team who have also come to this moment in time with their Test cricket sussed out. Think back over the past 12-24 months for Australia and the kiwis could have very easily have had this series at another time, when Australia were either deep in their issues or not quite at their best without Steve Smith and David Warner. For Australia, everything has aligned nicely for this trans-Tasman grudge match and that's similar to the situation that the Blackcaps find themselves in.

Throughout the England series, it became obvious that the major advantage Aotearoa had was their Test cricket experience as individuals and as a group. On pitches that required the mental fortitude, patience and skill that makes Test cricket such a monster, the Blackcaps were superior in those aspects of the game. To many, mostly English folk, this was viewed as a hefty negative, which completely overlooked the fact that the England Test team was at a very different stage of their development compared to the Blackcaps.

The first Test vs England featured 551 Test caps for Aotearoa, with seven of the playing 11 playing 40+ Tests. That is grizzly experience, which when compared to England's 337 Test caps tells you all about the difference between the two teams that played in Tauranga and even then, 281 of those Tests were split between Stuart Broad, Ben Stokes and Joe Root. The Blackcaps had seven players with 40+ Tests, England had three. Rather simple.

Having a mature Test team is a massive luxury for Aotearoa and while there wasn't a drop-off in performance for the second Test, this introduces us to how the Blackcaps deal with the ins and outs of a steady Test schedule. Instead of two Tests at the start and end of the summer, where the Blackcaps can roll out the same group without much fuss, squeezing a normal Test schedule into the mix clutters my optimism of the Blackcaps current standing.

Daryl Mitchell went alright in his Test debut and Matt Henry didn't enjoy much assistance in one of his sporadic appearances - that are becoming more and more important to his Blackcaps future. I'm definitely of the view that this Blackcaps environment is great for integrating guys like Mitchell, Lockie Ferguson and even the likes of Ajaz Patel or Will Somerville; early success is a sign of a supportive environment and team culture. It's a different equation though to expect new players to be consistently productive in Test cricket, especially when touring Australia.

With that in mind, I'm caught between knowing that if the 550+ Test cap Blackcaps team is playing then we have a fantastic opportunity of beating Australia and that if there is the natural rotation of the 1st 11 that I expect, then there's a wee bit more caution. This mainly resides in the bowling unit and it's unrealistic to think that Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Neil Wagner and Colin de Grandhomme will play every Test in Australia. It's also unrealistic to expect Lockie Ferguson to do the same job as Wagner, just because he bowls fast for example.

England serve as a funky example, based on their Test squad named to tour South Africa over summer. James Anderson, Jonny Bairstow and Mark Wood have been added to the squad that toured Aotearoa (Wood won't play), with Anderson (149 caps) and Bairstow (69 caps) both chillin' with plenty of experience. Moeen Ali has taken himself out of the system for a break and he's played 60 Tests as well; this isn't necessarily about how much better England would be with these players, it's more about when you take experience out and replace it with minimal experience, you can't expect the same result.

Instead of having a group who knows how to deal with kiwi conditions, then any niggly Test adversity, England had a group who were learning all of that on the fly. This is the fine line the Blackcaps are approaching as the play more Test cricket, with injuries or rest giving others an opportunity and while that's super exciting, it changes the paradigm of the Blackcaps Test team.

This is merely a case of me trying to suss out how I feel, because the optimism is flowing through my loins and yet I also feel that we are in a very different space to where we have been enjoying Test cricket from which breeds caution. There is still a lot of hype around the selection of Lockie Ferguson and most seem to be following on from the 'combat Jofra Archer's heat with Ferguson' idea that was present prior to the first Test. Selecting Ferguson because you need fast bowlers in Australia feels a bit like exactly what the Aussies want and in the day/night conditions, going all in on moving the ball may be a better idea.

Ferguson will get his opportunity though and this is more revolving around the fascination with pace. Australians grow up facing all sorts of quick bowlers on hard decks, which is what makes Wagner more of a funky proposition for me as Wagner's unique in the sense that his whole bouncer-schtick isn't based on pace. It's angles, perseverance and a combative nature that Wagner relies on which may end up being better suited to the conditions compared to Ferguson's heat.

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Perhaps the Aussies aren't so comfortable facing de Grandhomme nibbling the ball all over the place? Now that Aotearoa has some who balls fast and someone who I have been celebrating as a red-ball bowler since Ferguson started to make a mark in Plunket Shield, it's been interesting to observe the frenzy. When pondering the Blackcaps, I think about what makes them different to other Test teams and their experience is huge in that regard, but this seems to differ to the ideas around Ferguson which are based on replicating what the other team's got or is doing.

Experience, multiple world-class batsmen and crafty bowlers. That's the Blackcaps package right now and that stems from a period of minimal Test cricket for the Blackcaps. The schedule could play a massive, specifically for this first Test in Perth as it appears as though Trent Boult and Colin de Grandhomme could be available, giving the Blackcaps their best-prepared 11 with 550+ Test caps. Day/night Test with a pink ball is also favourable for the kiwi seamers and against an Aussie team that has assembled their parts in time for this series, making the most of the context around this first Test in Perth will be crucial.

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