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Forecasting Forward To Aotearoa Blackcaps In World Test Championship Final

Aotearoa's Blackcaps are in the midst of a delightful era and while that's helped them wiggle into back to back World Cup finals, the cricketing equivalents of Papatuanuku and Ranginui ensured that victories in those finals weren't meant to be. That's come back around to open up a path to the World Test Championship Final as results, weather and the way of the world fell in favour of the Blackcaps - not to mention the kiwis enjoying a steady flow of Test cricket in Aotearoa where they stack up the wins.

Maybe those cricketing deities will snatch the WTC final away from the Blackcaps? Who knows how those geezers upstairs operate, all I know is that the path to the WTC final has been opened up for the Blackcaps Test group to waltz through. All of which feels like a culmination of the past 10 years or so, a series of events that included incredibly awkward moments such as the Mike Hesson/B-Mac takeover at the expense of Ross Taylor that all played a part in getting us here.

More recently, I've come to settle on the players being responsible for the best Blackcaps group that I've experienced. Regardless of who the coach is, this is a Blackcaps group with a hearty core of Aotearoa's greatest cricketers to grace us with their presence. Led by Kane Williamson and with his Northern Districts Knights homies Tim Southee and Trent Boult right there, three blokes who have known each other since age-group rep teams in the Knights region. The Knights region where BJ Watling was kickin' it as someone who would one day become a mellow legend.

Ross Taylor's the kaumatua, Neil Wagner's the wildcard and Tom Latham is the undercover brother who oozes cricketing panache. Chuck in any other name you want, or bask in the fact that Henry Nicholls is the perfect job-doer for this team. It's a generation of kiwi cricketers who have come together and to suggest that the Blackcaps Test success is due to any other factor, would be disrespectful to this group. Hence, they are on their waltz to the WTC final in England.

In England. The place where Williamson first linked up with Gloucestershire before signing with Yorkshire, sparking a long-term relationship with one of England's strongest counties. The place where Taylor has played for Durham, Sussex, Nottinghamshire and Middlesex. The place where Wagner and his mangled toes laced up for Lancashire and Essex, where Latham's rolled out for Kent and Durham. Matt Henry's has had legendary County Championship moments with both Worcestershire and Kent, while Doug Bracewell's settled into a groove with Northamptonshire.

England is the place where Jeetan Patel became Lord Jeetz on the Kiwi County Tour. Taylor has played seven Tests in England, Southee's played five and Williamson's played four. That's not enough from a Test cricket funk perspective and as those three are the most experienced lads in this current group, it's not really enough to lean on as preparation for the WTC final. Scratch down a layer and you'll find that many of the Blackcaps Test group has played steady amounts of County cricket in England and some have found pockets of cult-hero status.

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England's County Championship is where Aotearoa's Test cricketers go to learn their craft.

India's Indian Premier League is where Aotearoa's cricketers go to stack their cash.

Catch me on a niggly day and it there is a vibe of Aotearoa cricket selling it's soul to India. The truth is that while full crowds and the energy of kiwi cricket does bolster the financials, there is a ceiling to the revenue that NZC can generate. Not to mention difficulties of the 2020 shake up. A decent portion of what we are experiencing - from ample Under 19/Aotearoa A fixtures to more wahine contracts and resources each year - stems from Indian investment in kiwi cricket.

That may be in the form of 'Dream 11' sponsorship, or a partnership with Star Sports. As we've seen in the numerous Indian tours to Aotearoa recently, suddenly Indian brands are visible in advertising around Aotearoa's cricket grounds. It's easy to view this negatively, but this is a case of NZC using their leverage with a Blackcaps team that is appreciated around the world, for the betterment of all kiwi cricket.

Sidenote: do you play Dream 11 fantasy? From my experience, 38 people in Aotearoa do so.

NZC also understands that there is a ceiling on what their cricketers can earn as players representing Aotearoa. In 2017, there was a Cricket Monthly yarn about player earnings around the world and at that time, they estimated that Williamson's annual earnings were around $250,000 while Steven Smith, Joe Root and Virat Kohli were all over $1milly.

The same yarn estimated that at the time, the lowest NZC contract sat at $57,000. That was lower than the West Indies bottom tier of $100,000 and then the bottom tiers of India ($78k), South Africa ($145k), England ($265k) and Australia ($200k).

The same yarn estimated that at the time, kiwi cricketers earned $6,099 in match fees for a Test. Compare that to Australia's lowest match fee of $12,339, or England's $19,700 per Test and Indian's $23,380. Based on the figures offered back in 2017, when a Blackcap played a T20I game he would earn $1,793 (USD) and that was lower than Indian, England, Australia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

All those figures may not apply now, yet I'm confident the general idea still applies. Aotearoa is the greatest sporting nation in the world because of how many world-class teams and athletes come from little ol' Aotearoa, so it's understandable that our cricketers play well above their financial value; most kiwi athletes do exactly that. I believe this is why NZC has cleared the path for kiwi cricketers to play IPL and there are no selection repercussions in doing so, which is different to the plight of Colin Munro and Adam Milne with the Big Bash League.

In 2019, there were a couple stories in Aotearoa about NZC rolling through three consecutive years of 'heavy losses' and NZC told the six associations to 'look at deep financial cuts and far-reaching structural changes'. Since then, there has been a plethora of foreign brands sponsoring series in Aotearoa, NZC opted to move to Spark Sport in a deal that was reported to have been far more than the broadcasting package offered by Sky Sport along with smaller tweaks in scheduling/series structure. That is to say that NZC has been getting their financials in order and in partnership with the players, they understand the reality of their business.

Which is why NZC rarely stands in the way of their best players taking up IPL money. This keeps their relationship with the BCCI smooth and steady, as well as bolstering the earning potential of their best cricketers. This reality is why NZC will allow their best Test players to play IPL and as there is a crossover with the Tests vs England prior to the WTC final; NZC is all good with something that can be perceived as negatively impacting their WTC final preparations.

Not ideal, completely all good though.

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I haven't really mentioned ODI cricket yet - the format where Aotearoa has made back to back World Cup finals. Right now we are dealing in extremes and a lack of ODI cricket puts Test cricket ideals against the T20 business. Somehow, through all of this there is balance on offer.

Tom Latham's last T20 game was on January 19th, 2019.

Henry Nicholls' last T20 game was on January 14th, 2020.

BJ Watling's last T20 game was on January 2nd, 2017.

Neil Wagner's last T20 game was on February 19th, 2019.

None of those four played a Super Smash game this summer.

If any Test cricketer doesn't want to play T20 cricket, they don't have to. The player sacrifices their Super Smash match fee and NZC sacrifices as some of the best cricketers in Aotearoa aren't part of the Super Smash entertainment package. Despite there being a high priority placed on T20 cricket from NZC, this has not come at the expense of Blackcaps Test cricketers.

Given that every game these lads don't play for the Blackcaps in any format they are sacrificing money, it's clear that money ain't everything. These lads place the highest value on representing Aotearoa in Test cricket and are content with who they are, what they earn in this realm. If any NZC contracted cricketer wants to make some more cash, there are various avenues they can explore with the support of NZC.

In terms of strict WTC final preparation, playing IPL is at the individual's risk. I understand how this can be easily be viewed as being detrimental to WTC final prep and this brings me to a key idea that has floated through all my work since last summer's transition and transformation vibes; Aotearoa has 15-17 Test cricketers who are well equipped for WTC final success.

The last five years, then amplified in the last 12 months or so, has presented a situation where Will Young has Test experience as batting cover. Daryl Mitchell took his chance at the expense of Colin de Grandhomme (who hasn't played Blackcaps cricket this summer). There are three-four spinner contenders in the mix. Tom Blundell is a Test opener, poised to absorb any loss of BJ Watling. Kyle Jamieson is an immense x-factor right now, but if anything happens to him in the IPL then Aotearoa can fall back on the less funky but grizzly Test experience of Matt Henry or Doug Bracewell. Lockie Ferguson's got a whiff of x-factor about him as well.

The Blackcaps Test team got torched in Australia as they couldn't quite put out the Blackcaps Test 1st 11. A variety of different blokes got a chance in Australia and pounced, setting up a period where the likes of Mitchell Santner returned to be a 1st 11 factor to bolster the depth and raise the competitive selection vibes. All of which has built a Blackcaps Test group that has batting, bowling and wicket-keeping bases covered, plus experience in England and hopefully some karmic forces working in their favour.

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Peace and love.