Well, the time is almost upon us. We’ve been through the intricate negotiations, we’ve been through the injury delay, we’ve been through the promotional yarns, we’ve been through the niggly back and forth between camps (mostly), and on Saturday night the hype becomes reality as the most consequential local heavyweight clash in history takes place. Joseph Parker and Junior Fa. Twelve rounds to decide who’s South Auckland’s finest.

No need to rehash any of the old yarns. Those stories have already been written (here’s a good one) so this piece is going to focus purely on the fight itself. The business at hand. S’pose we’ve gotta begin in the good old fashioned way...

The Tale Of The Tape

Junior Fa is a little older but much less experienced at the top end of the heavyweight division. He does however had a height advantage as well as a significant reach advantage. This is being written before the weigh-in but you’d expect that Fa will have a decent weight advantage as well. He’s got a bigger frame and his last fight (beating Devin Vargas in Utah in November 2019) he came in at his heaviest ever mark on the scales of 121kgs. Most likely he drops a few kegs from that number, before that he generally fought in that 112-118kg kinda range. Probably banking on something on the upper end of that but we’ll find out on Friday.

Parker, on the other hand, has allowed his weight to fluctuate depending on how he wants that muscle to movement ratio to go. But he’s never weighed in above the 111.9kg he did against Andy Ruiz Jr back in December 2016 so we’re probably looking at like an 8-10kg difference between the lads. But of course those physical attributes are more than balanced out by Parker’s huge advantage in fights and rounds despite being a year and a half younger.

Knockout Potential

Styles make fights, that’s one of the golden rules of boxing. Yet it’s hard to get a feel for how this one is gonna go for a couple of reasons. One is that obviously neither camp is giving up any tactical secrets other than tiny scraps and crumbs (although Fa’s camp have consistently repeated that they have a plan in place that they’re very confident can win this bout and the City Kickboxing team do have a history of clever strategic tweaks). Also because Junior Fa is such an unknown. It’s not like his progress has gone unnoticed, he’s even fought on Parker undercards before - most recently on the undercard for Parker vs Flores in Christchurch 2018 - but his rise has come in a very different manner to Parker’s.

While Parker worked his way up the rankings knocking down drifters and vagrants in front of corporate jerries under Duco’s guidance, getting a big name in the local sporting scene, Fa has fought six of his last ten fights in the United States, hasn’t fought in Aotearoa since that Christchurch bout, and has never headlined a card locally. He’s gone out of his comfort zone to take fights where the knockouts aren’t necessarily there, tough gigs on undercards where you don’t have a reputation, where you might not get the benefit of the doubt from the judges.

Both strategies have their own benefits and both have led them to this very moment where they’ve intersected. Still, it’s worth keeping all that in mind when looking at the knockout comparisons. Parker has knocked out 21 of his 29 opponents? Sure but he didn’t knockout Carlos Takam or Andy Ruiz or Razvan Cojanu or Hughie Fury or Anthony Joshua or Dillian Whyte. You know, all his biggest bouts. The only major scalp he did take via KO was Alexander Dimitrenko... but that fight was a joke thanks to a pretty heartless showing from Dimitrenko. Junior Fa may never have fought anyone of Parker’s reputation before but he is a ranked heavyweight fighter. He falls on the same side of the line as the guys who Parker has gone the distance with. The lesser end, at least at this stage, but yeah. Junior Fa’s last two fights have been 10 round unanimous decision wins while Parker’s last three were all knockouts... but that’s a misleading stat. If anything it’s Fa who has more translatable knockout power... though don’t expect a win via stoppage in this one.

How Does Joseph Parker Win?

Every fight we hear Parker talking about knocking blokes out so take that ongoing chat with a couple grains of salt for sure. Much more relevant are the hints from his camp about coming out fast and throwing a heap of hands. Something that Fa’s camp has also said that they expect and have “made allowances” for.

It makes sense that JP would wanna come out swinging and set the tone from the start (especially because it means that Fa won’t be able to do so himself). The knockout is unlikely unless the gap between the two fighters is greater than anticipated – a lot of Parker’s more recent KOs have come less as a result of killer power and more as a cumulative wear-the-bastard-down kinda thing – but get those first few rounds in the bag and then control the fight with his experience and (in his mind) superior boxing ability. Nothing stupid. Nothing reckless. Harness that familiarity with the big spotlight.

There has also been this chat about Dereck Chisora hovering on the horizon for Parker, the same bloke he was meant to fight before the spider bite dramas. Which supplies an element of dismissiveness towards this fight (granted, a lot of that is coming from the international audience, specifically in the UK where Junior Fa has no real profile atm). Interesting to see if that prospect also exists for Junior Fa if he happens to win, he and his camp said in the last press conference that they certainly hope it will though one suspects that it won’t. But with an eye on future matchups, that does add in some extra pressure for Parker to not only win but to win with a bit of flair and pizazz to sell himself to future opponents.

And while this fight was delayed because of a health issue that Junior Fa was having, Parker also used that extra time to take care of some elbow surgery to get him back to full capacity. A “blessing in disguise” was how David Higgins referred to that delay. Speaking of delays... neither of these guys have fought at all for quite a while. Same as a lot of boxers around the world. The pandemic has rattled things in many ways and the logistics of holding events, even without crowds (maybe especially without crowds), are really tricky. Hence why this fight simply had to happen now: there was nobody else, nowhere else that they could go. Parker last stepped into a ring against Shawndell Winters in February 2020. For Junior Fa it was even longer: December 2019. Both guys look in top shape and it’s an equal disadvantage anyway so shouldn’t be a factor. But gotta keep that in mind.

As for the rest of it, we know how Parker likes to fight. He’s got quick feet and even quicker hands. Not a power puncher but he will hurl a decent counter here or there though his jab is the one that sets everything else up. Not a major combination kinda dude. Extremely durable both in terms of his cardio fitness and especially when it comes to taking a hit. He was the first man to go the distance with Anthony Joshua and only Dillian Whyte has ever knocked him down... and even that was a dodgy one. Six times he has gone all twelve rounds in a heavyweight clash... Junior Fa has never been beyond ten rounds. So on top of that rapid start you can probably add a rapid finish too. Make no mistake: Joseph Parker is a heavy favourite here.

How Does Junior Fa Win?

Same as with Parker, the fellas around Fa have mentioned that getting out of the gates quickly and putting scoreboard pressure on the former champ is the way to go. Both dudes wanna set that tone, makes those first three rounds especially tasty as they could end up being extremely decisive in what follows. One of the two is going to have to shift to Plan B, if not both of them, come the middle rounds... and it’s probably Fa who needs those rounds most because that point about him never having fought a 12-rounder is a pretty massive one. He simply can’t expect to be able to play catchup late on. Especially not against a man with an iron chin.

But, as established, Fa will most likely need to go the distance to get the win. So he’s gonna have to flex his best pugilist artistry of which he has plenty. This is a real underrated hombre. Junior Fa has a solid body, not as quick on his feet as Parker but plenty quicker than most his size and in the last couple years he’s gone to a new level athletically. That’s happened in parallel with his rise up the rankings (he’s #5 in the WBO) and it really feels like he’s in a position to launch himself into the upper echelon now – note that he’s represented by Lou DiBella these days, an American promoter, compared to Parker who has those Eddie Hearn/UK connections.

Neither Parker nor Fa are going to serve up a flurry of ducks and weaves. Both like to fight on the inside. All of these aspects of Fa’s technique we’ve gotta wait and see if they translate against the highest calibre fighter he’s ever come up against (yeah, they did go 2-2 as amateurs but they were teenagers then so can’t see why those fights are at all relevant). Parker’s supposed immense power sure dried up quick when he got to the top level... though that allowed his elite hand-speed to flourish in turn. Fa has always been a resilient boxer, he combines his punches nicely, and he’s got a mean right upper cut. You feel that’s the punch that can harm JP, particularly if he can dictate the distance with his jab and get Parker taking risks.

Parker has had trouble with taller fighters in the past and he’s deliberately fought quite a few of them given that it’s guys like Joshua/Fury that dominate the sport at the moment. The extra reach that they have allows them to control the space between the boxers. Anthony Joshua basically reverted to that one strategy to keep him at a distance and then popped him on the books without taking a risk (Kevin Barry was very pissed off with the refereeing being too quick to break up the clinches as it meant Parker couldn’t get close, left having to fight on the outside where he was at a major disadvantage). Junior Fa doesn’t have that much of a height advantage but he does have that big reach advantage and you already know that his team have pored over all those old fight vids.

There are ways, man. Don’t even worry about it. Junior Fa is a pretty hefty outsider according to most of the bookies – too much of an outsider, to be honest, even if he’s a clear underdog – but there are definite assets that he brings into this bout. The reach for sure. The unknown factor. The CKB tactical factor. Plenty of reasons to think this will be a much closer fight than most (overseas) people seem to think.

The Rest Of The Card

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