Joseph Parker, former heavyweight world title holder, fights Deontay Wilder, former heavyweight world title holder, on Sunday NZT over in Saudia Arabia. The second headliner of the so-called Day of Reckoning event, with Anthony Joshua vs Otto Wallin as the main bout... although of course we here in Aotearoa shan’t be sleeping on Junior Fa vs Frank Sanchez either.

These are some big time shenanigans from Parker, who will be fighting for the fourth time in 2023 following convincing wins over Jack Massey, Django Opelu, and Simon Kean. None of them carry anywhere near the hefty recognition of Deontay Wilder. It’s a huge step up... and also a massive risk to be taking against a guy renowned as one of the hardest hitters in boxing history who has a 43-2-1 record with 43 of those wins coming via knockout. His only non-wins were the two losses and the draw against Tyson Fury in that legendary trilogy. Bermane Stiverne is the only other bloke to go the distance with him and Wilder demolished that bloke in the first round of their eventual rematch four years later.

Throughout his career, Wilder has had to fend off accusations that he lacks technique behind his power... but other than Fury he’s had very few opportunities to prove otherwise as top fighters have continually ducked him. Not necessarily out of fear. It’s also a matter of bargaining and Wilder’s got much less of that without his WBC championship belt. Plus being based in America has made it tricky with England/Europe dominating the heavyweight scene over the past decade. Perhaps that’s one spot where the Saudis have helped level the playing field just slightly. Parker himself was close-ish to a scrap with DW back when they both held title belts. He was even in attendance for Wilder’s win over Gerald Washington in 2017... but nothing came of it.

The bookies are not being kind to Joseph Parker here. Wilder is a sturdy favourite and New Zealand’s TAB seem to be even less confident than the overseas folks. Initially this Day of Reckoning date was supposed to feature Tyson Fury versus Oleksandr Usyk but then Fury was sloppy in (barely) overcoming UFC convert Francis Ngannou so that fight got pushed back and they arranged this one on the scheduled date instead... with the very transparent hopes of using it to build into a Joshua vs Wilder bout next time around. In fact, it’s understood that Wilder and Joshua have already agreed on a two-fight deal to follow this (with the bout taking place in March – the second fight is probably a rematch clause that’s likely to be picked up either way as long as fight one is not a complete dud). Obviously that’s contingent on neither of them losing this weekend but if you’re Joseph Parker you’re probably feeling a little bit like a speedbump in the road.

So what’s he doing here? Well, as Tyson Fury’s brother-from-another-mother, he was always planning on being a part of this card. He was available. He was already in contact. It just made sense once the organisers started having to hit the shuffle button. As to agreeing to the Deontay Wilder battle specifically... when you stop and think about it, what other choice did he have? This was peak opportunism. A chance out of nowhere to potentially launch himself back into the top realms... which he’s only going to get by taking a big risk at this stage of his career. Previous attempts have ended in defeats against Anthony Joshua, Dillian Whyte, and Joe Joyce. Fights are hard to book. They’re harder still without having built up that challenger’s hype. Parker’s in a spot where he’s gotta take what he can get or else get stuck beating up journeymen.

Like, you can look at this as Joseph Parker scheduling himself another notch in the loss column and possibly even a night in hospital. But a fighter has to back themselves. And as far as his career goes, there’s nothing to lose. If Wilder wins then Parker remains where he is. If Parker wins then his career gets an outrageous glow-up sending him back into the areas in which he once dwelled when he owned a championship belt. And, let’s be honest, Deontay Wilder > Derek Chisora or Carlos Takam or Andy Ruiz. It’s a chance for a career-defining victory. Whether that chance is realistic or not, it’s too good to pass up.

Also... money. Lots of money. So much money. Parker is reportedly getting NZ $10million for this bout so yeah nah good luck walking away from that offer.

Which brings us to the original idea: can Joseph Parker actually win this fight? Look, if you ask him then of course he can win. The man himself is expecting nothing less.

Now, let’s just admit that Parker says this every single time. He’s never had a fight before which he didn’t promise a knockout win. Usually that doesn’t happen, except against the guys that he substantially outranks. So don’t take any of that as gospel.

But you know what? There are some pretty significant things in Parker’s favour here. Most notable of all is his relationship with Tyson Fury. Not only Fury himself, but JP’s trainer Andy Lee was in the corner with Fury in those three fights as well which is even more valuable. He has access to to all this information from the only people who possess the experience of having stopped this bloke. Parker and Fury are very different types of fighters but there’ll be things that overlap and nobody can identify them better than Andy Lee.

This will be Parker’s seventh fight under Lee’s tutelage and that’s more than enough time for that combination to really begin to thrive... and while Simon Kean isn’t of the same calibre as Wilder that was a dominant and surprisingly explosive performance from Parker last time. Also that was only in October. Parker’s often said that he’s at his best when he keeps busy and he’s been very busy in 2023. Most fights he’s had in a calendar year since 2016. In comparison, Wilder has fought once this year and it was a first round knockout of Robert Helenius. There was a year between that fight and Wilder-Fury III before it. 20 months between that and WF2. That’s three bouts and 19 rounds of action since the start of 2020. Parker has eight bouts and 66 rounds in the same space of time.

Parker will be fighting in Saudi Arabia for the second time in a row. He’s also had bouts in New Zealand, Australia, USA, England, Germany, and Samoa. Wilder has only ever fought in the USA, Mexico, and Cuba so this will be his first time outside of North America. Plus he’s relatively new under the tutelage of head trainer Malik Scott... who actually fought against Wilder (and got knocked out in the first round) back in 2014. Scott’s first bout with Wilder was the third Fury effort so he’s only had one other proper fight with him since. Two and a half years in partnership but only 12 total rounds together. Not a lot of opportunity to go through the ups and downs as Parker and Lee have done.

Those are some nice situational things... but as far as the actual punching goes nothing matters unless Parker can withstand the unholy power of Deontay Wilder. Once upon a time there was no fear for Parker against power. He’s always had a mean chin... though Joe Joyce changed that impression last year and the fact that Joyce has since been pumped twice by Zhang Zhilei has not helped Parker’s case. JP fought at 113.4 kgs against Kean which is one of his heaviest ever marks (number one being his defeat against Joyce at 115.8 kgs). Don’t expect him to have dropped too many pounds in the two months since given the task ahead of him. That extra weight is muscle and power will be of a premium if he intends to fight fire with fire.

One thing that Andy Lee seems to have stressed in multiple interviews is attentiveness. Parker’s got to stay alert throughout because he’s up against a bloke that can change the course of history with one hammer swing of his right arm.

Andy Lee: “How do you defend against the big right hand [of Wilder]? You keep your left hand high, keep your eyes open. The minute you take a little break, or just have a momentary lapse, he’ll pounce. And he can spring from very far, very quick. So Joe has to be on him every second. He has to be patient. He has to be very far away or up on his chest—he can’t be in that middle dangerous range. And then you gotta take the opportunities when they come. And there will be an opportunity for Joe. He punches very hard.”

Parker punches hard in the way that all heavyweights punch hard but power is not one of his elite attributes. Speed and footwork, yes. Power, not so much. But then defence also isn’t one of Wilder’s best. He’s been rocked in several fights before. He’s super aggressive and that leaves him vulnerable to counter punches. It also sometimes leaves him stumbling of his own accord, swinging so hard into his punches that he loses balance. Eric Molina and Luis Ortiz rattled him. We know that Fury decked him several times. Parker lacks the height and weird angles of Fury but he’ll have other tricks up his sleeve.

Funnily enough, the idea that it’s power over technique and if you can withstand the hurt then you can outbox the bloke... that’s the same thing that’s often said about Anthony Joshua. Yet when Parker fought AJ it was a very reserved Joshua that stepped into the ring, taking minimal risks and using his reach advantage to settle for a simple points victory. Parker was the first man to go the distance with AJ but that was effectively with AJ’s permission.

There’s no way of predicting what’ll happen... but there’s enough there to think that Joseph Parker can hold his own and give himself a chance. He’s shorter than Wilder but he should be heavier on the scales. Lean in and rough him up. Quick hands and combinations. In and out (but avoid the middle where Wilder’s long jab will otherwise own things). He’ll need to absorb some megapunches throughout but he has shown that capability in the past. Should be a good scrap. Looking forward to it.

Likewise with the bro Junior Fa, who was undefeated when he lost a respectable points decision against Parker a couple years ago. Since then... not so great. There was some controversy about Lucas Browne’s possible rabbit punching in that knockout defeat but it was such a convincing defeat that it dropped him off the scene entirely. His only fight in the 18 months since was a 45 second knockout of Tussa Asafo at the Paraoa Brewing Co. and Events Centre in Stanmore Bay, Auckland. It’s a long way from there to Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Ah but here’s the thing: Junior Fa is a former sparring partner of Deontay Wilder’s. Boxing, like many industries, relies a lot on that kinda networking. With Wilder up against Parker it makes sense that he would bring back his old mate who happens to be a compatriot and ex-opponent of Parker. That’s exactly what has happened. Fa has been called over to help Wilder and as a result he’s also been wrangled onto the fight card. He’ll be fighting Frank Sanchez in the opening bout of the event - expected to begin at 5am NZT... with Parker vs Wilder happening later on at 11am.

Sanchez is a 31yo Cuban pugilist with a 23-0 unbeaten record. 16 wins via knockout. He’s based out of Florida and this will be his first fight beyond America shores. That’s an intimidating record however Sanchez hasn’t really fought anyone serious yet. Unanimous decision wins over Christian Hammer and Efe Ajagba rank as his best work to date. Those wins are better than any wins that Fa has achieved... yet Fa’s two defeats are also of a higher standard than anything Sanchez has experienced to date. We’ll see how it goes. Both Joseph Parker and Junior Fa have seen their reputations dip in the last two years but all of a sudden, almost out of nothing, they’ve each got a chance to send themselves surging back into contention just like that. It doesn’t need to take a miracle. Although ‘tis the season just in case.

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