Exploring The Blackcaps Test Mixer For The Great Asia Adventure Of 2024
New Zealand will soon embark on their Asia Adventure of Test cricket with one Test vs Afghanistan in India, two Tests in Sri Lanka and three Tests against India in India. The only World Test Championship games of this Asia Adventure are the Tests against India and in typical cricket styles, they are the only Tests that have actually have dates locked in.
The Test vs Afghanistan will apparently start on September 9th and the Blackcaps will then tour Sri Lanka before their WTC games in India starting on October 16th. No dates have been sorted for the Sri Lankan stage of this adventure and it seems weird for NZC to produce a full summer schedule while unable to suss out dates for the next couple of months, but let's assume that Blackcaps will play three Tests in a month before starting the series vs India.
That wiggles out to six Tests in Asia across two months. The Test series against India will be crucial in the WTC context as Blackcaps currently sit third with three wins, three losses and a 50 percent win rate. Four teams have a 50 percent win rate or better at the time of writing: NZ and Sri Lanka share a 50 percent win rate, perched behind India and Australia.
Any points in India will be useful for the kiwis and three Tests in Asia ahead of this series will give Blackcaps handy preparation. Blackcaps also need to gather Test cricket confidence and every Test is lovely occasion for Aotearoa, so this is looming as an exciting phase of Test cricket. Here is a breakdown of Blackcaps Test mahi in Asia since the start of 2020...
India 2021: Draw, loss
Pakistan 2022/23: Draw, draw
Bangladesh 2023: Loss, win
More wins would be fabulous but the draws are solid results given how New Zealand teams have historically performed in Asian conditions. Blackcaps have had four draws since the start of 2020 and three are in Asia (the other was in England). The fact that Blackcaps didn't lose half of those six Tests is decent and the win vs Bangladesh is admirable as a bounce back effort after losing the first Test.
Aotearoa suddenly has an abundance of spin bowling options in the Test mixer. This features Ajaz Patel, Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi as the three best spinners. Glenn Phillips and Rachin Ravindra have established themselves as likely 1st 11 cricketers, giving Blackcaps two spin options in their batting unit.
Michael Bracewell is in this cluster as well as he provides off-spin along with Phillips. Patel, Santner and Ravindra are all lefty finger spinners, while Sodhi is a leggy. Blackcaps have six spin options to call upon and all six have bowled in Tests since the start of 2023. Five Blackcaps bowlers have taken 15+ wickets since the start of 2023 with Matt Henry and Tim Southee leading that as the only lads with 30+ wickets, followed by three spinners in Patel, Phillips and Bracewell.
Southee and Henry are likely to feature as seamers for Blackcaps in the Asia Adventure. They are the only Blackcaps Test bowlers who have played at least eight Tests since the start of 2023. Neil Wagner has retired and Blackcaps can improve on his 13w @ 40.3avg/5.1rpo in his four Tests of this period, while Blair Tickner and Scott Kuggeleijn are unlikely to add to their three Tests since the start of 2023.
Wagner, Ticker and Kuggeleijn are joined by Kyle Jamieson as the only seamers aside from Southee and Henry, who have played at least three Tests in this phase. Jamieson has been out injured since last summer when he missed the series vs Australia and while he could continue his recovery as a squad member, consistent Plunket Shield mahi to start next season seems like the best thing for Jamieson given his regular injury issues.
All of that means that the next four busiest Blackcaps Test seamers behind Southee and Henry, probably won't be in the mix for Asia Adventures. Blackcaps don't need a full stable of seamers to tour Asia but they will need reinforcements behind Southee and Henry, with Will O'Rourke and Ben Sears the best candidates to plug those holes.
O'Rourke and Sears both climb above 140km/h. They also hit the deck hard and their fizz for seam bowling should help them churn out the overs required in tough conditions. Both are better bowlers right now than Wagner, Tickner and Kuggeleijn while the fact that Aotearoa has these youngsters as well as Jamieson highlights Aotearoa's depth.
Ben Lister is the other joker to watch out for as the next up lefty in the Blackcaps pipeline. Lister hasn't played Test cricket yet and he's had three ODIs with 12 T20Is, but he has quietly built a strong First-Class record in Plunket Shield. Last summer Lister snared 11w @ 17avg/1.9rpo in Plunket Shield and that's the lowest average of his seven FC seasons, so he seems primed to step up as a Blackcaps Test squad member.
Being a lefty is a factor in Lister entering the mix, but he is not a typical lefty as he nibbles the ball away from right-handed batters/into left-handers. Lister has gathered experience and is a mature lad at 28-years-old, while his rise overlaps nicely with Wagner's retirement. Here's how Lister's FC career compares to O'Rourke and Sears...
Ben Lister: 28yrs, 32 games, 78w @ 25.7avg/2.7rpo
Will O'Rourke: 22yrs, 17 games, 61w @ 26.09avg/3rpo
Ben Sears: 26yrs, 21 games, 63w @ 28.1avg/3.7rpo
The other seamer in this bracket is Nathan Smith who would be a strong candidate for a development slot in the Blackcaps squad. Smith's chances of selection increase if Jamieson is out of action but even then, folks should not expect Smith to be selected in the Asia Adventure. Limited seam bowling spots is a factor and while the O'Rourke/Sears duo are already ranked ahead of Smith in the Test mix, they also bowl a bit quicker and seem better suited to the conditions Blackcaps will find in Asia.
Lister is a lefty and he's the only lefty who is a genuine chance of Blackcaps Test selection right now, which puts him ahead of Smith. Dominant Plunket Shield mahi to start next season will offer a substantial boost for Smith's selection case, especially with three Tests vs England in kiwi conditions on the horizon. Smith has been gaining experience in County Championship bowling against England batters and other lads from around the world, so he is making nifty progress through the Blackcaps pipeline.
Nine bowlers are in this Blackcaps Test mix with Phillips and Ravindra sitting in the group of nine batters. This gives 18 cricketers who are likely to feature in the Asia Adventure and the batting unit is fairly settled so don't expect any drastic tweaks. As covered in depth across the last two years, Devon Conway's status as a Test opener is the main nugget on offer here and he will probably be given a crack to open against Afghanistan and then Sri Lanka.
Devon Conway Test Batting By Year
2021: 63.16avg/50sr, 1 x 100, 2 x 50
2022: 49.9avg/52.4sr, 2 x 100, 3 x 50
2023: 32.4avg/48.6avg, 1 x 100, 3 x 50
2024: 11.7avg/40sr
Conway will probably feature alongside Tom Latham, Kane Williamson and Ravindra in the top-four. Daryl Mitchell has held down the numero rima batting spot for the last few years but like Conway, Mitchell's Test batting is going in the wrong direction and the need for spin could see him lose his spot to Phillips.
Daryl Mitchell Test Batting By Year
2021: 58.6avg/74sr, 1 x 100, 1 x 50
2022: 68.3avg/49sr, 3 x 100, 3 x 50
2023: 42.6avg/61sr, 1 x 100, 4 x 50
2024: 31.2avg/42sr, 1 x 50
Will Young provides batting cover and he stays in a tricky spot given the dip in form of Conway. Young isn't a pure opener and he has batted third or fourth for most of his FC career, but his best chance for game time is replacing Conway as a Test opener. That requires a form slump extension for Conway which would be horrible, while Ravindra's rise has seen him snap up the opening in Young's favoured spot.
Young is a good batter to have in the squad though as he can cover multiple roles and he deserves squad selection ahead of others like Henry Nicholls, who couldn't take his opportunities last year. The battle between Mitchell and Phillips to bat fifth is the main 1st 11 batting query for the Asia Adventure, but Phillips' ability to bat further down the order while also bowling could ensure Mitchell's selection in that role.
The funkiest selection in this whole yarn is Canterbury's Mitch Hay playing a back up/development role behind Tom Blundell in the wicket-keeping bucket. Blundell's last three years of Test batting are aligned with dips for Conway and Mitchell...
2022: 58.4avg/52sr, 1 x 100, 5 x 50
2023: 36avg/56sr, 1 x 100, 3 x 50
2024: 14avg/72sr
Further slumping from Blundell could put his 1st 11 Test spot in danger but he is likely to operate as the leading wicket-keeper for this next phase of Test cricket. Blackcaps have veteran back up wicket-keeping options like Dane Cleaver, Cam Fletcher or Tim Seifert who could all serve as decent plug-and-play lads. Taking Hay on tour across India and Sri Lanka seems like the best development option though, especially as Hay spent time in India alongside Dean Foxcroft and Tim Robinson this winter.
Hay is in this mix for development purposes but he is also the best emerging wicket-keeper/batter in Aotearoa, who has a decent case as a better back up to Blundell than the veterans. 23-year-old Hay has a FC batting record of 46avg/54sr after 19 games with one century and 10 scores over 50 in his 31 innings.
The 18 players offered in this yarn weave through the need to win, or at least draw a few Tests on the Asia Adventure as well as integrating new players to the Test mix. Blackcaps have already ushered in Aotearoa's best young cricketers with Phillips, Ravindra, O'Rourke and Sears all playing Test cricket over the past year. Blackcaps need a lefty and a young wicket-keeper with Lister and Hay ticking those boxes, yet they also need experience to perform in tricky conditions. This group covers all the needs and could surprise folks by their mahi over the next few months.
Nine Batters
Kane Williamson, Tom Latham, Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Will Young, Tom Blundell (wk), Mitch Hay (wk)
Nine Bowlers
Tim Southee, Matt Henry, Mitchell Santner, Ajaz Patel, Ish Sodhi, Michael Bracewell, Will O'Rourke, Ben Sears, Ben Lister
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