2016 Four Nations: Going In On Aotearoa's Kiwis
Debriefing the Kiwis' loss to Scotland was going to be a futile task, especially once Australia had brushed aside the challenge of England. David Kidwell named a weaker squad to face Scotland and there's nothing wrong with that as he gave younger members of the squad some crucial international game time, risky business of course and it almost came back to bite the Kiwis on the bum.
There's nothing wrong with Kidwell's selections to face Scotland because Mal Meninga did the same, as did Wayne Bennett ... and the Kiwis scored four tries to Scotland's three. It almost backfired but it didn't and we didn't really learn a whole lot from that game as that team that drew with Scotland won't be the same team that plays against Australia in the Four Nations final; the Kiwis are in the Four Nations final and that my friends is all that matters.
In drawing with Scotland though, the Kiwis took a strange Four Nations campaign to a different level. Judging this Kiwis team against Kiwis teams of the past 24 months that have enjoyed sensational success is a dangerous activity as this Kiwis team doesn't have Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Kieran Foran or Simon Mannering in it, so what do we make of how this Kiwis team is tracking?
Note how Tuivasa-Sheck's absence hindered the NZ Warriors and how the Kiwis don't quite possess the same threat without Tuivasa-Sheck; the dude is a freak so don't sleep.
As always, much of the criticism surrounding the Kiwis centres on Shaun Johnson and once again I find myself scratching my head, second guessing myself. First of all it's kinda crazy how obsessed people are with Johnson and regardless of how much you try to stress over the other variables in this Kiwis footy team - from their underperforming forward pack to the lack of any prior combination with fullback Jordan Kahu - people partake in the manic activity of laying all the woes of any team Johnson plays for, on Johnson.
That would suggest that people have seen Johnson control a complete game of footy by himself before, adding his running game and play-making ability on top of that. I've never seen that, not for the Warriors, not for the Kiwis and so I've never expected Johnson to do that. We all know that Johnson's best footy has come with Foran alongside him in the halves, so why do we expect Johnson to lead the Kiwis to glory by himself?
Johnson and Thomas Leuluai haven't enjoyed success at the Warriors or with the Kiwis in the Four Nations because they don't share an even portion of the halves' duties. For whatever reason - either a tactic or Leuluai lacking the clout to over-call Johnson - Leuluai has played second-fiddle to Johnson and is consigned to merely operating down a left edge. Much of the play goes through Johnson and a team like Australia eat that up, putting Johnson under all sorts of pressure as they know where the footy is going most of the time whether it's the third tackle or the last.
None of this matters now though because Leuluai has a broken jaw and either Te Maire Martin or Tohu Harris will likely come into the halves. The best option is definitely to go with Martin and if that's the case, how Martin and Johnson operate as a halves pairing will be crucial. I don't think it is a coincidence that Johnson hasn't enjoyed a whole lot of success in teams with a right and left sided half, especially when you consider how good Johnson looked against England when Leuluai left the field injured and Johnson roamed, popping up on either side of the ruck.
An inexperienced Martin could force the Kiwis to give Johnson full control, with Martin playing as a two-pass option and this freedom could allow Johnson the ability to probe on either side of the ruck.
While the Kangaroos enjoy the luxury of Darius Boyd chiming in on attack with his Queensland homies Cooper Cronk, Jonathan Thurston and Cameron Smith, the Kiwis have been forced to go with Kahu at fullback. This is also another reasonable excuse for a stuttering attack against Scotland as it was Dallin Watene-Zelezniak at fullback and while neither Kahu or Watene-Zelezniak have played much footy with Johnson, Watene-Zelezniak would have got far less reps than Kahu in training since the squad was assembled.
Again, Johnson isn't close to being Thurston or Cronk. Nor does Johnson have a fullback like Boyd who relies on pure instinct when adding another pair of hands to Australia's backline moves and the combination with Kahu has been a work in progress, slowly developing. The point here is that we are comparing the Kiwis' attack to Kiwis teams that had Johnson, Foran and Tuivasa-Sheck in the spine, or we are comparing it to Australia which just seems a bit silly.
It also seems a bit silly because the Kiwis forward pack haven't exactly done what we had hoped they would. This Kiwis forward pack is good enough to cover up the holes in the spine, or a spine that needs time to develop lethal combinations, yet the Kiwis forward pack hasn't performed near their best, so those holes in the play-making spine have been exposed.
Part of this could be thanks to coach Kidwell still sussing things out as Kiwis coach. And once again it seems a bit silly to expect the Kiwis to enjoy immediate success with a new coach, who more than likely has slightly different ideas to Stephen Kearney. Does new coach + new spine = super slick Kiwis team to you? Yeah, nah.
It doesn't look as though Kidwell has settled on a forward pack and a rotation just yet, so it'll be interesting to see what forward pack he picks for the final. Where does Adam Blair fit in? Does Manu Ma'u play come on to play on Tohu Harris or Kevin Proctor's edge? Who gets the most minutes out of Jesse Bromwich, Martin Taupau and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves? Kidwell doesn't have an easy job here and while this forward pack is fantastic on paper, consider that the Kangaroos have run for 5,895m in three games while the Kiwis have run for 5,256m.
Confusing matters even more is Jason Taumalolo, who has been my pick for Kiwis MVP so far. In the two games that Taumalolo has played, he's played at least 70 minutes; 70 minutes and 17 carries for 179m against Australia, 77 minutes and 24 carries for 271m against England; Johnson's best performance came against England. What makes Taumalolo so bloody good is that he offers a powerful running game in quintessential Taumalolo fashion (speed and footwork around the ruck) but he plays big minutes; he's taking over 15 carries and each of those carries averages over 10m.
Guess who didn't play against Scotland? Yup, Taumalolo.
Taumalolo has been a beast, however if his Kiwis forward pack homies execute the Kiwis blueprint to near perfection in conjunction with Taumalolo's consistent brilliance, the Kiwis are a far different outfit. They did that fairly well against England and rolled down easily, but were made to look ho-hum against Australia as their forwards were always taking carries after the likes of Blake Ferguson and Valentine Holmes had made big metres.
I still believe that the Kiwis can beat the Kangaroos, but it will take something that we haven't seen in the Four Nations yet and that's a robust, aggressive and dominant display from the Kiwis forwards. There seems to be a lack of realism when pondering the attacking potency of the Kiwis halves as the Johnson x Leuluai combo has only really ever yielded disappointment and there's a new fullback in this team who has barely played fullback at Brisbane Broncos, let alone with Johnson.
The Kiwis forward pack (and outside backs) have the ability to get defences scrambling, firing shot after shot through the ruck area. If they aren't doing that though, the Kiwis spine are up shit's creek as their opponents know who's getting the ball and instead of being on their heels, they are pushing up, piling the pressure on.
Coach Kidwell now has a few intriguing selection decisions to ponder over the next few days, led by who will partner Johnson in the halves and also who will make up the outside back positions. What Kidwell desperately needs though is a Kiwis forward pack who bring the ruckus.