Diary Of A Warriors Fan: Free The Gubb
Standard cult-hero Gubb.
Aotearoa Warriors fans have been graced with a little Christmas treat as Australian media jokers are reporting that props Albert Vete and Charlie Gubb could be leaving the club. Gubb wants a release, while Vete is being hunted by Gold Coast Titans and because this noise is coming from Australian media, kiwi mainstream media is picking it up as gospel.
There's some logic in the noise, just ease up on taking what those Aussies say as gospel.
We'll start with Gubb and with the reporting of him wanting a release came reporting of Gubb being a cult-hero. In theory, you should probably play more than 14 games, be one of the first names picked on the bench and offer serious impact while also offering personality to gain cult-hero status, yet this shows what we're working with here as Gubb is all-effort and that's enough for a Warriors forward to gain respect at this point.
That Gubb apparently wants a release is understandable given that he is ranked below Jacob Lillyman, Ben Matulino, Sam Lisone and Albert Vete in the prop rotation. With James Gavet, Toafofoa Sipley, Ligi Sao and Bunty Afoa also lurking as possible middle forward options for the bench, Gubb is currently an expendable piece in the Warriors puzzle.
This is amplified when you consider that Simon Mannering can roll through 80 minutes of footy a game, meaning that there's no real need to carry that extra middle forward on the bench. Gubb is the one forward who is best-suited to playing lock (behind Mannering), he's much better suited to lock than Lisone or Vete who were both used at lock at various points this year. Mannering doesn't really need a break in games though and if the Warriors features Vete, Lisone, Afoa, Sao or Gavet; one of them can cover lock.
Don't sleep on Jazz Tevaga either as his versatility in playing hooker and lock could be funky off the bench.
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Other NRL clubs want props, not big-name props who will shake up their salary cap in the heart of summer but props who will come relatively cheap. Gubb is exactly that because he's yet to really establish himself in the NRL with consistent game time, so he'd be seeking opportunities. Seeking opportunities + wanting value for money = a match made in footy heaven.
Vete on the other hand, is a young forward with a big future. He averaged 34 minutes/per-game this year and led the club in offloads, with 8.97m/per-carry alright for a youngster but there's plenty of scope for him to improve and average 9.5m or more (the Warriors desperately need a forward or two who steam through 10m/per-carry ... oh wait, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, aka Mr 200m does that).
That Vete has proved to be a solid forward who has already got another funky aspect to his game with offloads, is impressive, especially when you consider that the Warriors' best attack comes after an offload.
All the boxes are ticked with Vete, not only on the field but off it as well with him showing leadership ability and all the good vibes that come with that. Other NRL clubs will definitely come knocking, but while the club is probably going to consider releasing Gubb, releasing Vete would be far less likely.
This brings me to the main problem with all of this; Jacob Lillyman and Ben Matulino just weren't very good in 2015. Vete averaged more metres than both Matulino's 8.72m/per-carry and Lillyman's 8.83m/per-carry, which should be of huge concern because Matulino and Lillyman are the club's marquee forwards. If we're here talking about the remote possibility of Vete and Gubb both leaving the club, we should all genuinely consider that Matulino and Lillyman should probably be in that discussion instead.
Include Isaiah Papalii in that conversation as he's probably the pick of the young forwards coming through.
Of course, Matulino and Lillyman would have been put on notice by new coach Stephen Kearney so we should expect much better this season. We can't ignore however that Matulino and Lillyman's best years could be behind them, allowing greater scope for the likes of Vete to hunt more minutes and more responsibility. There are enough young forwards coming through to absorb Gubb's loss as a fringe-NRL prop and there are enough young forwards at the club to put serious pressure on Matulino and Lillyman.
Expect Gubb to be allowed to leave (I'm still intrigued by Tuimoala Lolohea's situation, all signs point to him staying ... wait for the Kieran Foran decision though) and expect Vete to stay. If you live and die by what NRL clubs say through the media, you're fairly silly as they lie to you all the time. While the Warriors say they want to keep Gubb, there's no real need to keep him around and other clubs want a cheap prop.
Free the Gubb.
All this got me thinking about a 2017 Warriors forward pack...
Starting: Mannering, Thompson, Hoffman, Lillyman, Luke, Matulino.
Bench: Vete, Lisone, Sipley/Afoa/Gavet, Tevaga.
Or, a Warriors forward pack without Matulino and Lillyman...
Starting: Mannering, Thompson, Hoffman, Vete, Luke, Lisone.
Bench: Sipley, Gavet, Afoa, Tevaga.