Broncos vs Tigers

Match Up: Jordan Kahu vs Jordan Rankin. Not only is this a cheeky battle of the Jordans, they are also doing a fill-in job for their respective clubs. Kahu played fullback for the Kiwis and offers a strong running game, possibly some slick hands that we haven't really seen yet while Rankin is a highly skilled player who has played fullback, wing and in the halves throughout his NRL career.

Key Man: There's not a whole lot of experience in this Broncso outfit thanks to Origin, which will place a greater emphasis on the work of Adam Blair. Not only will his leadership be important, but all the little jobs that Blair does like putting pressure on the halves, working from the inside, tough carries, offloads etc. Usually Blair does those 1-percenters along with Josh McGuire and Corey Parker, but it will be Blair's responsibiity on Friday night.

Keep An Eye On: Plenty to watch out for here as the Broncos have switched the style up. Greg Eden comes onto the wing and Joe Ofahengaue starts, make a note to watch Jaydn Su'a on the edge as he's a celebrated junior who finally gets an opportunity. We've seen Jai Arrow and Herman Ese'ese before, Tevita Pangai Junior will come off the bench to play on the edge - he's a beast, defs keep an eye on him. In general, that's an impressive group of youngsters who get a chance through Origin and we're going to see the Broncos' next wave of talent on display.

Verdict: Tigers <12. Upset, the Tigers are far more settled/just a hunch.

Dragons vs Cowboys

Match Up: Mitch Rein vs Jake Granville. Both of these lads could be in the Origin frame if injuries/suspension strike and aren't too far down the pecking order for either state. They both love to run the footy and engage defenders around the ruck, which is crucial to either team's ability to roll through the middle. 

Key Man: The Cowboys still boast a strong forward pack even though their all-rep props are missing and Jason Taumalolo will have to ramp up his efforts to ensure that the Cowboys dominate the middle. Taumalolo serves up epic numbers each and every week, but as the leader of this forward pack and up against a Dragons forward pack that might crumble under the pressure, look for Taumalolo to take around 20 carries with over 200m.

Keep An Eye On: Kurt Mann is back for the Dragons, on the wing though. We'll also see Jahrome Hughes, a 21-year-old who was born in Wellington step into the halves for the Cowboys alongside Ray Thompson. Also keep an eye on Coen Hess off the bench for the Cowboys and just like the Broncos, we'll get front-row seats to see the Cowboys next wave of talent.

Verdict: Cowboys <12. It's the forward pack and they still have Lachlan Coote.

Raiders vs Bulldogs

Match Up: Blake Austin vs Josh Reynolds. These two lads have been in the mix for Origin selection in recent years, if not in the Origin cauldron and could have made stronger cases for their inclusion for game one. Last week we did see both Austin and Reynolds flex their running muscles which was good to see and in direct competitions with each other, I'll be noting who has the most plays that lead to points/pressure.

Key Man: You can't really go past Josh Hodgson any time the Raiders play, he's that good. The Bulldogs' forward pack is a bit smaller this week, but look for Hodgson to kick long and early out of dummy half to get them turning around, plus Hodgson will cause all sorts of problems scooting around the ruck. Both will make the Bulldogs' forwards do a lot more work than usual.

Keep An Eye On: The Raiders now have Iosia Soliola and Jeff Lima back in their side which basically flips everything about the Raiders on its head. Soliola especially, who returns this week, is an 80 minute edge forward who can do it all and Ricky Stuart is now enjoying a bit of a luxury with most of his troops back in action. 

Verdict: Raiders >12. Excited for this one, Canberra forwards to ruffle a few feathers.

Knights vs Eels

Match Up: Who would have thought that when Trent Hodkinson and Kieran Foran were at Manly together, that they'd end up playing against each other for the Knights and Eels, both at halfback. They are completely different halfbacks with Hodkinson the better kicker and all-round conductor while Foran will take the line on and offer a bit more x-factor, both are crucial cogs in teams that are either struggling or surrounded by drama.

Key Man: Corey Norman has been wrapped up in some silly off-field stuff that could see him miss this game, or he might play. Norman's my key man because everything about the Eels is reflected in him, when the Eels were riding high it was largely thanks to Norman's sublime skills and now they are basically playing for nothing, Norman is caught up in drama. If Norman is struggling in general terms, the Eels won't be very good.

Keep An Eye On: Jake Mamo comes in at fullback for the Knights and I've always liked Mamo's work as enthusiasm oozes out of his pores. There's also Jaelen Feeney in the halves with Hodkinson and I like the idea of having as many guys who can make stuff happen as possible, that's the benefit of having a young team.

Verdict: Knights <12. Upset, the Eels are just making life way too hard for themselves.