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Upto New South Wales? From A Neutral Perspective

Ridin' the bench

Here we are again, pondering another tricky little situation that New South Wales have found themselves in. They narrowly fell short in game one and while they probably could have/should have won that game, I'm settling on the old 'you make your own luck' yarn there. NSW had many decisions and/or minor details that they can't control, go against them in game one but they lack the clinical execution and attacking instinct to make their own luck in that situation.

I know, it's all a bit airy-fairy. Point being that I believe there's a reason why NSW lost game one despite coming so damn close; they shot themselves in the foot a few too many times. 

Game two was similar. Not in terms of the decisions and general luck going against NSW, but we saw a similar performance from NSW as they competed hard, showed that there were some points in them and once again, glimpses of how they could beat Queensland peeped through, glimmers of hope as teeny beams of light in the sea of maroon.

Once again though, NSW merely showed glimpses of what they could do and whenever they seemed to have a genuine shot at snatching the momentum away from Queensland, NSW were their own worst enemy. This is/was a team of NSW All-Stars that fumbled a tap restart in game one and threw the ball to Caspar ... just two examples of a severe lack of Origin execution.

This is about NSW so I won't mention Queensland much more than this; Queensland are amazing, with amazing players and a squad that has been together so long that they are effectively now their own NRL club. They are beatable, I've seen how NSW could do it, but NSW continue to offer Queensland and their great players an inch, from which those great players take a mile (or a kilometre).

Much of the reaction after game two has been laughable. While there's been headlines about this Queensland player missing game three or what players to pick for game three, it completely ignores the fact that game three doesn't matter. Queensland have won the 2016 State Of Origin series and while there's the pride at stake, the result has no bearing on Queensland once again putting NSW in the shade.

This is where I confuse myself a wee bit as it's blatantly clear that the smart option is to wipe the slate clear and start again for Laurie Daley. Ah, yes, Laurie Daley, the bloke who should be given the opportunity to continue to bring through the new wave of NSW talent (of which there is plenty). Daley is a major problem here as he has held on to players that simply haven't done the job often enough in the past and now he's in a position where bringing in the plethora of talented youngsters will take a year or two. Daley could have done this last year, or this year and NSW would already be a few steps along in this journey.

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How do I see NSW beating Queensland? Well being tough and gritty has long been viewed as the typical recipe for an 'Origin player' which ignores the aspect of being an Origin player that involves an uncanny ability to break a game wide open, on the biggest stage. NSW have gone too far down the toughness route and in doing so, they have ended up trying to emulate - to an extent - what Queensland do. The issue here is that NSW don't have Cameron Smith, Jonathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk who are all equally as skilled as each other at controlling a game of footy. Queensland can play much of a game with a very simple, tough style of footy because they have those three in key positions who know exactly when to kick for example. 

Robbie Farah can't get his team to work up field to this point and then jump out of dummy half to his left, shooting a 40m kick into the corner, because he's not Cameron Smith. 

Adam Reynolds and James Maloney can't combine, running the footy down a short-side on the last tackle resulting in a try, because they are not Cooper Cronk and Jonathan Thurston. 

NSW have restricted themselves by not going all-in on their own unique style of play. They've tried to play tough while still having a few exciting players with x-factor, yet the use (or lack of) of Dylan Walker and Jack Bird this year shows how reluctant NSW have been to offer attacking funk.

NSW's strengths are big, aggressive forwards through the middle and exciting outside backs who are as skillful as they are quick. In both aspects, NSW could have the edge over Queensland but we haven't really seen this as neither their massive forwards or young backs have been trusted in that arena. A massive forward pack and an exciting backline lends itself perfectly to an up-tempo style of play with offloads and slick passing, which I view as the best way to counter Queensland last year, this year and in the next few years

I like Reynolds at halfback in super attacking team because his role becomes a lot clearer; he just needs to organise. Think of these weapons that could play in a NSW backline and it's pretty damn scary; Matt Moylan, James Tedesco, Dylan Walker, Jack Bird, Joey Leilua, Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson, Tom Trbojevic and Josh Mansour. Instead of trusting these sorts of players, much of the discussion has been about defence and stopping Greg Inglis for example.
Why not just go all-in on attacking Queensland, full of confidence that you'll score more points than them?

As for the big, powerful, skillful, aggressive and mobile forwards who can steam up field through the middle, I'd be looking at a this pool of players; Aaron Woods, James Tamou, Josh Jackson, Boyd Cordner, Tyson Frizell, Wade Graham, Bryce Cartwright, Ryan James, David Klemmer, Andrew Fifita, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Leilani Latu, Jordan McLean, Trent Merrin, Junior Paulo and Shannon Boyd.

The tricky part is in how and when Laurie Daley brings this wave of talent through. A game three with nothing but pride on the line seems like the perfect opportunity to do so, yet there's also the vibe that the current squad could be given one last hoorah to right a few wrongs. Their results and performances haven't been too bad through this Queensland dynasty, it's just that this NSW group haven't won, so why do they keep doing the same thing with the same players?

As for the regular argument that pops up when discussing change and NSW, it's important to select a young player or in this case a full wave of young players and give them time. You'd have to be blind to not see the talent that is available, so fans and pundits can cop a few losses if they know that these younger players will be better off for the experience and that the end product will be hugely exciting.

Take a look at Dylan Walker. A young bloke who was kept on the bench for much of game one (no trust) and then when he's starting at centre for a whole game, he's up against a rampant Greg Inglis. There's no centre who could have maintained parity with Inglis in game two, so why is Walker scolded for his performance? Walker, like Moylan, Frizell and Bird along with a whole host of young players will soon be putting in similar performances to what Josh Jackson dished up, with more experience at that level.

Thankfully, in guys like Jackson, Woods, Tamou, Cordner and Dugan, there is a core group that offer experience and leadership. It's time for these players to be handed control, it's their team now.