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Winds Of Change Through Mt Smart: (Part Three) Signing Adam Blair

Haere mai

In a sea of Rugby League World Cup shenanigans (that will obviously receive the full Niche Cache treatment over the coming days) Aotearoa Warriors officially announced the signing of Adam Blair from Brisbane Broncos. This has been on the radar for months now and as the story has progressed from rumour, to being done and now being official, I've found it rather strange how much negativity has come with the Warriors pursuit of Blair. Let me be as franky-frank as possible; signing Adam Blair is a great move for the Warriors.

From my observations, much of the negativity stems from the price paid for Blair, the length of his deal, the lack of go-forward offered by Blair, Blair's stint at Wests Tigers and some concern about Stephen Kearney's 'failures' this season coinciding with Kearney bringing in his old homies. So, where do I begin?

Let's start with the silliest of them all which is people citing Blair's mediocre time with Wests Tigers - 'let's hope the Warriors don't get Tigers Blair'. Well guess what the Tigers didn't have, that Storm and Broncos had and that the Warriors currently have; Stephen Kearney. Blair has performed his best - doing his job for the team to the best of his ability - with Kearney in the coaching staff, both Kearney and Blair have soaked up knowledge and wisdom from the two best coaches of the modern era. 

The Tigers were at that stage about as far removed from the Storm and Broncos as you can get, just as the Warriors are. Yet Kearney is coaching the Warriors and the only way he knows how to operate is like the Storm and Broncos, same with Blair.

Blair's salary and the length of his deal has also been a weird point of negativity. For starters, the annoying thing about the NRL is that unlike the NBA, we've got no certainty about the amount or the structure of a player's deal. Some folk may have the inside scoop, but it's all speculation and while it's sexy to broadcast the total amount of a deal (roughly $2milly in Blair's case), you always need to break that down into how much per-year. And even then, Blair could be earning a different amount for each season.

What value do you put on a leader who fully understands Kearney's systems and desires for the culture of a footy club? Given the position the Warriors were in and the changes they are making, why does it matter how much they are paying Blair? At this stage, spend what you gotta spend to change this and even then, salaries are only increasing folks so get used to it.

Yes, Blair will be in his mid-30s by the time his deal is done. Worse case scenario is that Blair is terrible in his third year and ... the Warriors offload him as every NRL club does and as the Warriors did this season with Manu Vatuvei. That's not an issue. I highly doubt Kearney would sign Blair for three years if he had any concerns about what Blair could contribute in his third year. 

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The overall investment the Warriors are making isn't solely about what Blair contributes set by set, game by game. To worry about the type of player Blair will be in three years time completely ignores the reason he has been signed and why Kearney has chased Blair pretty much all year long. Blair is here to play his part in changing Mt Smart, as is Kearney, as is Tohu Harris, as is fitness guru Alex Corvo and Blair's role is as much off the field as it is on the field. 

On the field, Blair's skill-set matches what the Warriors require in righteous fashion. Let me address the metre-eating concerns that many seem to have first and Blair isn't a beast in this regard, averaging 8.45m/carry. The Warriors still have James Gavet, who only played 13 games this season and averaged 9.73m/carry and Gavet was absent during much of the Warriors end-of-season-losing streak. The Warriors also have Roger Tuivasa-Sheck aka Mr 200m, who finished the season ranked 4th in run metres and Ken Maumalo finished 15th.

The Warriors are losing Jacob Lillyman's 9.45m/carry and Ben Matulino's 9.71m/carry (both less than Gavet), Blair isn't a like-for-like replacement for either of them though and offers different skills.

Blair had 45 offloads this season, while Simon Mannering led the Warriors with 22 offloads and many people had a cry about the lack of offloads from the Warriors this season, pointing the finger at Kearney's restrictive game plan; if Kearney hates offloads, why would he sign someone who was ranked 6th in offloads this year?

That doesn't make any sense and I view it as all part of Kearney's plan to suss things out in his first year (2017) and lay his foundations from which he can built on top of. I'd strongly suggest that offloads help teams make metres as an offload results in another carry against a scrambling defensive line, or an offload can then result in the ball moving to the edges where metres can be had. 

The Warriors were 14th in offloads and one of four teams to have less than 200 offloads this season, they've signed the 6th best offloader who averages 1.7 offloads/games and finished with more than double the amount of offloads than the Warriors' best offloader. Also relevant here is that the Warriors have signed Leivaha Pulu, who had 28 offloads this season (1.3ol/game) and Pulu had more offloads than Mannering as well. So, expect some offloads next season.

Stats can't measure how Blair will contribute to the Warriors defence, but with Blair and Tohu Harris coming to Mt Smart, we can expect the Warriors to make drastic improvements. Blair's career is built on one-percenters and as that has been good enough for Bellamy and good enough for Bennett, it's probably going to be good enough for Kearney. The Warriors weren't flash on defence in Kearney's first year, but Kearney needs players who can do what he wants and Kearney wants similar defensive intensity as Melbourne and Brisbane, so he needs players like Blair and Harris.

I celebrated when there was the kerfuffle about Blair's 'cheap shot' on Cooper Cronk. Blair is among the most ruthless players in the game with regards to putting pressure on opposition halves. Oh and you don't think Wayne Bennett is telling his players 'nah, don't put a late shot on the half'. Duh, those messages come from coaches and halves-pressure is crucial in defence.

No one in the Warriors does this.

The Warriors don't have a grub.

The Warriors don't put late shots on.

If they do, it's not well-timed enough that the ref ignores it.

The Warriors don't have any niggle.

Mt Smart isn't a graveyard. 

And guess what? The Warriors haven't been very good.

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The Warriors desperately need some ruthlessness in their play, some mongrel. Blair has perfected this art in the sense that he's not picking fights with blokes, he's not excessive in what he does but opposition players damn sure know that they are getting whacked and won't be able to take their time with the footy. I'd splash the cash just to get an enforcer, so to get an enforcer who makes life prickly for opposition players as well as offloading with ease, makes at least 8m/carry and will shift Mt Smart's cultural foundations, is fantastic.

Most complaints about the Warriors this year were about their defence and offloading. 

They've signed someone who specializes in defence and offloading.

The Warriors have also signed a bloke who is about as professional as they come. You'd expect that from a player who like Kearney, has been successful with two of the greatest clubs and coaches ever. You can't put a price on that and Blair's influence - along with the influence of Harris and Corvo - can only rub off on the young players who are in first grade or coming through the junior system at Mt Smart. 

Stop being a Negative Nelly and start imagining offloads at Mt Smart; Blair offloading to Issac Luke who darts 15m and then Tuivasa-Sheck bursts through on the next play. Rejoice in the possibility of a skillful, fast and funky style of footy that has long been missing from Mt Smart.

Stop being a Negative Nelly and start imagining Blair putting late shots on opposition play-makers; Blair and Gavet could earn hitman status. Rejoice in the possibility that Mt Smart may become scary again, that those Aussie teams will know that the crowd will be wearing black and that they will face a niggly, prickly Warriors team. 

The winds of change are in motion folks. Either stay hating or smile.

Peace and love 27.

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