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Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Back At The Mt Smart Fortress

Bodene ain't gonna kick tho.

Chasing a slither of hope is a difficult task, let alone when the Warriors are in a group of five teams chasing that one slither. The Dragons round off the top-eight on 24 points, Penrith sit in 9th on 22 points and then it's the 18-point quartet featuring Canberra, Gold Coast, Warriors and Bulldogs, in that order. Then Cronulla Sharks appear, making the trip to Aotearoa and the intensity surrounding the hunt for the slightest opening in the top-eight increases.

Cronulla currently sit in 4th and rank well in major team stats; 3rd in run metres, 4th in line breaks, 6th in offloads and while they have only scored 11 more points than the Warriors, they are one of two teams in the top-eight to concede less than 300 points. Melbourne are the other team and even then, Cronulla have a teeny advantage as they've concedd 283 vs Melbourne's 285.

Yet Cronulla are also 3rd in missed tackles and 1st in errors. The Sharks can miss plenty of tackles and still defend their try-line with vigour, that's entirely possible and their main culprit in missing tackles James Maloney won't be playing. The four players with the most missed tackles for Cronulla are Maloney, Luke Lewis, Chad Townsend and Wade Graham; their two edge forwards and halves who defend outside either edge forward. 

Those four have all missed 50+ tackles this season, while the Warriors only have Shaun Johnson in that bracket and Johnson's missed exactly 50. Cronulla have four lads with 50+ missed tackles, the Warriors have one and then Ryan Hoffman sitting on 40. Neither Johnson or Hoffman are playing this weekend, joining Maloney as the 'missed tackle kings' who won't be playing.

In theory, that means the Warriors should pump all sorts of footy down Cronulla's edges. Force Graham and Lewis to make decisions with bodies in motion and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck at the very least, lingering around the footy. That's all gravy but as the story goes: they'll have to earn that right by punching through the middle.

The Warriors have low key shown some very interesting weapons to deploy down their edges, especially when hunting points. Bodene Thompson's footwork and offloads have seen him pose a threat and last week we saw Tuivasa-Sheck put Bunty Afoa through a hole to score, as well as Simon Mannering hitting a delightful line that saw him score. Mannering is our best middle forward, who also gets plenty of action in a slightly wider channel when the Warriors are in 'good ball' and this either comes in the form of Mannering being a pair of hands to shovel the ball along, or Mannering angling inside-out, targeting the edge, when running the ball.

Afoa is gonna earn a few stripes in facing off against Lewis, while Thompson vs Graham will be a juicy, brutal and skillful battle. Mannering and Tuivasa-Sheck are wildcards in the greater 'battle of the edges' and their presence, then their execution make for interesting viewing.

Look for Mannering's run towards the left edge and at this stage of the season, we're just looking for anything, something from Tuivasa-Sheck in those wider channels where he's got a wee bit more space - put too much pressure on RTS and he'll slip a pass to a hole-runner, hang off him and ideally he'll burn you.

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The Warriors will desperately need Ben Matulino and Jacob Lillyman to absorb the opening onslaught. Lillyman could prove to be a threat with his smaller stature, faster feet and rotund shape offering a point of difference against Andrew Fifita and Matt Prior. The bloke I'm really interested in though is Tevita Satae, who is the closest thing to James Gavet we have, hence he needs to be given adequate minutes.

Satae only played 10 minutes last week and in those 10 minutes he looked impressive. Powerful carries and a super fast play-the-ball caught the eye, if he can gain more minutes at the expense of Ligi Sao or Sam Lisone, that would give the Warriors a healthy dose of Gavet's energy, without Gavet. I suspect we'll see Satae show signs of Mt Smart cult-hero potential in his first home game and I'm reasonably sure that if the Warriors win, it'll feature a breakout performance from Satae.

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When the game was in the balance during the second half last week, the kicking execution of Mason Lino and then Kieran Foran, crumbled. Foran hit one out on the full and after Lino had earned a few repeat sets with accurate kicks (the variety as well), Lino understandably struggled for the same accuracy as the game went on, perhaps as the speed of NRL footy caught up with him. Unfortunately that resulted in the Warriors conceding possession and territory exactly when they wanted to build pressure - they scored points when setting up shop down the Cowboys end.

Not only is Valentine Holmes a lethal runner in returning kicks, Cronulla won't need any invitation for a 7-tackle set. This means that Lino especially has to show some class in kicking for corners, ideally forcing Sosaia Feki or Gerrard Beale to return the kick as well as not kicking it dead. You can be sure that Graham is going to putting Lino under the pump and we've all seen vision of how effective Graham is rushing out of the line, so he'll have a target on Lino.

Sure, we want Foran and Issac Luke to step up and ease that burden on Lino. Luke's a great kicker so hopefully he slip out to his right at the ruck and put a few kicks down into the corner, early in the set to establish some sort of game-control. Lino though, has to show that he can execute under pressure because he didn't do that last week. That slither of hope still lurks on the horizon and much of the Warriors hope depends on Lino's kicking game.

As long as Lino's not taking air-swings, kicking dead or out on the full like Johnson, the Warriors will find themselves in a Mt Smart grind. And I've got a feeling that a Mt Smart grind could fall in favour of the Warriors.

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