The Minimal Upside Of Kieran Foran's Bulldogs Future
Goodbye and good luck.
There's a rather strong case to be made that the Warriors have got absolutely nothing out of signing Kieran Foran. And based on the knowledge that it was highly likely Foran would return to Sydney to be closer to family, everyone involved knew that there was a limited ceiling to how 'successful' signing Foran could be. In a league where the best teams and coaches build combinations over the course of years, the chances of Foran's arrival resulting in immediate success weren't huge.
The Anzac Test only amplified this and it was at this point that I realised that having the Kiwis spine didn't mean a whole lot, hence it's been laughable to hear 'experts' voice their disappointment. Aotearoa's forward pack got rolled by Australia's forwards (and outside backs), as Australia waltzed down-field with ease. The Warriors simply did not have the pieces of the puzzle around that Kiwis spine at full-strength, let alone when Ben Matulino, James Gavet, Ryan Hoffman and Bodene Thompson have all missed a bunch of games this season.
Foran's presence at the Warriors will have some mid-long term benefit though. There'll be some good karma due the Warriors way for helping Foran get back to business and Ata Hingano has been able to soak up some footy wisdom from Foran. Hingano will be the Warriors left-edge conductor for the next five years and that's exactly what Foran has done throughout his career (he ran Manly's left edge while Daly Cherry-Evans sat on the right), so Hingano has gone from having little know-how being based down to him specifically around that left edge role, to having someone who was routinely known as one of the best left edge halves in the league.
And that's just based on skill; Hingano has shown he's a tough bugger and there's a bit of Foran evident.
This isn't about the Warriors though, this is about Foran.
Foran came to the Warriors having only played 9 games in 2016 for Parramatta Eels. If there wasn't the concern around Foran's welfare and more importantly his bargain-bin salary for 2017 - Foran took way less money to prove himself - this would have been a weird move. Foran is always battling injury, not exactly major injuries but 'niggles' that are genuine injuries and Foran is capable of playing through these injuries.
A combination of a few factors has seen Foran play 16 games when most others would have played less than 10 with the same niggles as Foran. First and foremost, Foran is a tough bugger and he has a proven track record of playing through pain. That combined with Foran's off-field situation has me pondering a low key factor in this and something that has been alluded since Foran's dramas started; Foran needs to play footy.
Athletes are most comfortable on the sports field, while you drink a box of beers each day, athletes rely on sport for their escape. That involves being at training every day and the buzz of playing NRL footy. Everyone around Foran would have had some concerns (minor or major) about Foran's welfare if he had to miss a substantial chunk of this season through injury. The best thing for Foran was to play footy, not sit around thinking about life and Foran's capable of playing through injury.
Foran also needed a new contract and you don't earn new contracts by sitting on the sidelines. The whole point of Foran signing a below-market-value deal with the Warriors was to show possible suitors (including the Warriors) that he's still got plenty to offer, which required regular game time. Foran came to the Warriors as damaged goods thanks to his injuries and off-field stuff, he needed to get back to par.
Foran needed to play footy for his personal welfare and to earn a new contract, hence it's a minor miracle Foran has played 16 games this season.
To go back to the Warriors; there's a difference between a 1-hunnit percent fit, firing, engaged Kieran Foran and a Kieran Foran who perhaps shouldn't be playing. Key word is perhaps because I'm not privy to inside information and it needs to noted that this difference is a lot smaller than the average NRL player.
A new contract was earned and Foran will link up with Des Hasler next season at the Bulldogs. While everyone in Aotearoa has been quick to sip their annual Warriors hater-aide, their sporting bubble keeps them away from the pure turmoil of the Bulldogs and the Warriors look like an alright club that is on the up compared to the Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs have spent big money on Foran, who will now miss the rest of the season via a back injury. A back injury after Foran has struggled with hamstring and shoulder injuries, these are injuries that have plagued Foran since his move to Parramatta. The Bulldogs know this, they have seen Foran miss games and look kinda average thanks to his injuries, they now watch as Foran misses more games through a back injury.
The Bulldogs are in a salary cap predicament and are currently trying to offload players just to accomodate Foran and Aaron Woods. They have already bid farewell to Sam Kasiano and are likely to part ways with James Graham, let alone any more players who have been Bulldogs regulars over the past few years. Neither Foran nor Woods have been able to lead weaker rosters to success and they will arrive to find a Bulldogs club that could be weaker come March 2018 than it was in March 2017.
It's not as though the Bulldogs will be able to sign other job-doers either. They have managed their salary cap terribly as well as apparently being one of the clubs who over-estimated the 2018 salary cap and didn't play it safe. Funnily enough, kiwi Ralene Castles has played a major role in that. The uncertainty around the Bulldogs cap situation coincides with uncertainty around their coach.
'Foran will link up with Des Hasler'. The whole point of this was that if there is anyone who can extract every slither of good out of Foran, it's Hasler, yet Hasler is currently up to his neck in drama. This isn't just a case of Hasler coaching a severely under-performing Bulldogs team, this smells funky, like the Parramatta situation that Foran managed to escape from.
The Bulldogs and Parramatta are complex organisations, with heavy board involvement and the politics behind either club resembles a Game of Thrones. Many influential people around the Bulldogs don't like Hasler, they despise what Hasler has done to their club and they are making moves in the shadows to undermine Hasler.
One such move was to rid Hasler of a coaching staff that Hasler had brought in himself - rid Hasler of his people, thus reducing his power. Foran is a Hasler guy and if Hasler was not coaching the Bulldogs (regardless of how successful they were), Foran would probably not sign with the Bulldogs. There's a fair chance that Foran will arrive at the Bulldogs and Hasler will not be the coach, although Foran will stick it out and doesn't have any clause in his contract about Hasler being coach.
The issue here is that there will be a negative perception about Foran if Hasler is given the boot and Foran battles injuries and a weak Bulldogs team. There will be people who won't be happy that Hasler brought in Foran on big money and left the Doggies in a spot of bother, unable to spend on other recruits. Foran will miss games through injury next season and he's going to play tough through injury, it's hard to digest that though when Foran's presence is restricting the Bulldogs recruitment and/or performances.
Especially when the bloke who kinda messed things up for the Doggies is the reason for Foran being there.
Does all of this sound like recipe for some scrumptious meal? Not really. Foran has worked so hard to get back on track and we're all obviously hoping that Foran can roll through consistent footy, enjoying the very reason he wanted to get back to Sydney. There's a funky smell lurking though and that smell is already permeating out of Belmore, before Foran's even arrived.
Ain't not funky smell coming from Mt Smart, just a chance to see how young halves can take the club forward.
Peace and love 27.
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