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Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Adam Blair And Low Key Off-Contract Targets

Ticks the boxes...

Those living inside the week to week Warriors bubble would be reasonably sad right now and the doom and gloom provided by mainstream media continues to amplify that. Y'all know that the Niche Cache spreads the positive vibes and the two signings that the Warriors have made for next season are part of the reason to be optimistic. 

Tohu Harris is set to be a like-for-like replacement for Ryan Hoffman and it's important to note that Hoffman's has been out of action since round 16 vs Bulldogs. Since then the Warriors have lost five games in a row and it's been funny to watch everyone get their knickers in a twist about the Warriors as they completely ignore injuries to key players. Not only has an grizzly 80-minute edge forward been out injured during this five-game slump, the Warriors have been without their best middle forward in James Gavet since round 19, as well as their halfback Shaun Johnson. 

Be honest with yourself and think about how other NRL teams would perform without a veteran edge forward, their best prop and halfback? Then throw Bodene Thompson into the equation and like, what do y'all expect to happen? 

So once again, chill on the drama and don't expect things to get better as long as four certain starters are missing. You could easily switch the scenario and enjoy the opportunities that are being given to others, the sorting out process which allows Stephen Kearney to see which players he wants to keep and which players he doesn't want to keep. Embrace this sorting out period, because with Harris and Leivaha Pulu coming, players who have been comfortable are going to have to raise their standards and fight for game time. 

Especially if the Warriors are out in the market for more players and most notably, players Kearney wants. Here's my thoughts on a few rumours, but also off-contract players who the Warriors could target:

Adam Blair

This appears to be a strong possibility and given what the Warriors already have and what they need, it's hard not to like Blair's possible arrival at Mt Smart. The Warriors are already losing Ben Matulino - who has been in fine form this season but has also been a staple in the Warriors during a time when their culture and attitude has been err, questioned - and Jacob Lillyman isn't demanding a new contract. Lillyman's gone the other way and is kinda telling the Warriors that he cbf anymore. 

We all know what Blair's specialty is and this 'one percenters' niche is exactly what everyone has been saying the Warriors need more of. Yet there's still a lingering negative perception about the Warriors chasing Blair, which could simply be put down to Blair having brown skin. If Blair was a white Australian, everyone would perhaps celebrate the second coming of Kevin Campion or Michael Luck; Blair does the same thing!

(Campion was 30yrs when he joined the Warriors, Steven Price was 31yrs, Ruben Wiki was 31yrs, )

With Blair starting at prop, hopefully Simon Mannering would keep his lock position and that would be a huge defensive improvement. Blair and Mannering are mobile and ooze effort through the middle, covering the inside channels and something that can't be slept on is Blair's niggle. Do the Warriors have a forward who will put a well-timed shot on a kicker or rush up in the face of an obvious ball-receiver? 

There's absolutely no niggle in this Warriors pack and the only feared forward is Gavet, so getting Blair would give the Warriors two workers in the middle, with Blair being the bad cop to Mannering's good cop. 

Tohu Harris has been out injured for much of this season and so has Hoffman, so I'll look at their 2016 stats as they both played over 20 games last season and Harris averaged 30 tackles while Hoffman averaged 22. Bodene Thompson averaged 38 tackles last season and 34.6 this season, so given how much everyone hates on the Warriors defence, the prospect of Harris, Blair, Mannering and Thompson (left-right) playing with fantastic defensive effort should excite Warriors fans.

The lack of oomph in playing both Blair and Mannering can easily be covered by Gavet and a cluster of forwards who offer power off the bench. The low key stat of the year could be that Gavet played less than 40 minutes just three times (13 games) this season and his impact with the footy smacks you in the face. Off the bench would come Leivaha Pulu (I'm confident he will be a mandatory bench selection every game for Kearney) and the beauty will be that Albert Vete, Sam Lisone and Tevita Sipley will compete for two bench spots and will have very specific roles to play; go nuts for 20 minutes.

Also, everyone's moaning about the lack of offloads from the Warriors and thinks that the Warriors have been forced to put the offload away by coach Kearney. 

Folks, that's false and this is an example of how crazy opinions/coverage of the Warriors is.

In 2011, the Warriors were 1st in offloads (and made the Grand Final).

In 2012, the Warriors were 15th in offloads.

In 2013, the Warriors were 3rd in offloads.

In 2014, the Warriors were 13th in offloads.

In 2015, the Warriors were 6th in offloads.

In 2016, the Warriors were 12th in offloads.

As of August 7, 2017, the Warriors are 14th in offloads.

Since Ivan Cleary's departure at the end of 2011, the Warriors have had five coaches (in six years!). Kearney's arrival hasn't coincided with a massive drop off in offloads and if Blair does join the Warriors, Kearney would have signed two players who average far more offloads than any of the current middle forwards; why would Kearney sign two guys who offload more if he's anti-offloads?

Pulu averages 1.3 offloads/game and Blair leads this whole group with 1.7 offloads/game. Compare those numbers to the current main crop of middle forwards of Gavet (0.5), Lillyman (0.1), Matulino (1), Lisone (0.3) and Mannering (0.6) and I'd suggest Kearney has signed forwards who enjoy an offload for a reason. 

Simply put: many Warriors complaints have centred around defensive effort and a lack of offloading. Adam Blair's NRL career currently revolves around defensive effort and offloads, so that's a good signing right?

Don't buzz about Blair's age or the length of his contract. Players can very easily be moved on before the end of their contract as we are currently witnessing with Blair himself. Blair is under contract with Brisbane until the end of 2018, but Brisbane are allowing him to look elsewhere and if there are any issues with Blair as he nears year three/four of his contract, the Warriors can simply allow Blair to 'look elsewhere'.

Contracts mean little in the NRL and we see all the time that players either agitate for a move while under contract, or clubs move players on while they are under contract.

The cost of Blair doesn't really matter either. The Warriors are effectively replacing Jacob Lillyman (maybe) and Ben Matulino with Blair (and a bit of Leivaha Pulu), so the Warriors are paying for someone who does exactly what they need. The Warriors need someone alongside Mannering to lead the defensive effort through the middle and they are paying Blair accordingly. What price would you put on a player who does exactly what the Warriors have lacked for a number of years? 

James Graham

Adam Blair and James Graham are effectively the same type of middle forward, so it would be a bit silly to sign two workers, effectively giving you three workers including Mannering. They won't have enough salary cap space to sign both either and this is a case of either Blair or Graham, not Blair and Graham.

Right now, it just seems more likely that Blair moves to the Warriors. 

The NRL salary cap was projected to be up around $10milly earlier this season but will now be closer to $9milly and as the NRL is silly and offer salary cap transparency, I can only guess about how the Warriors salary cap is working (I really want to cover NRL salary cap like NBA salary caps but the NRL is dumb). My hunch is that the Warriors will need to get funky in signing some off-contract players who need an opportunity, so here's a couple realistic targets...

Sitaleki Akauola

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Struggling for game time with Penrith, Akauola doesn't appear to have much of a future with the Panthers despite looking impressive when given consistent minutes. Akauola is mainly a middle forward who can feature on the edge, but his body shape would suit the Warriors needs nicely as he's taller than Sam Lisone and Albert Vete, giving the Warriors a bit more variety in their forward pack.

Akauola would be fairly cheap and would offer value for money. He'd have to prove himself in reserve grade and he'll either impress and demand selection over other middle forwards, or he'll ensure that the likes of Lisone and Vete play their best.

Joseph Paulo

Paulo has find a niche in the NRL as a skillful forward who offers a slick combination of offloading and ball-playing. He does a job in terms of making metres, but signing him would enhance the idea of Kearney moving towards a bit more ball movement and with Blair and Pulu offering more offloads, Paulo could thrive and give the Warriors a serious dose of funk through the middle.

The issue could be Paulo's price-tag as he's not desperate for a gig like Akauola. The Warriors could have more competition to sign Paulo and this would only be beneficial if they can get Paulo cheap. Paulo does offer what the Warriors lack though and they could go all-in on razzle dazzle footy by playing with Paulo, Mannering, Blair, Pulu, Harris, Thompson and some power forwards.

Sam Tagataese

Give him a veteran's minimum contract and a depth spot. Tagataese is nearing the end of his career and would give the Warriors pack a taller figure like Akauola, only with a splash of experience and winning vibrations as well. 

This would give the Warriors an experienced forward on the cheap and I'd suggest that Tagataese would play a low key leadership role in setting an example along with Blair, Harris and Mannering.

Johnny Tuivasa-Sheck

The younger bro of Roger would be a solid depth option and would add to the competition for outside back spots. Zac Santo seems to be the next fullback in line and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is the next wing/centre, so Johnny could add to reserve grade and put pressure on Nicoll-Klokstad. This would require some help from Roger though as Johnny isn't too far away from getting a promotion with the Roosters and there's probably a clearer pathway at the Chooks.

Johnny would add to the off-field buzz of the Warriors though as he's perhaps the most prominent social media entertainer in and around the NRL - Nathan Peats' Tweets probably lead the way. Johnny would be the ideal bloke to raise the profile of the Warriors in a positive manner and give the club a bit of personality.

Benji Marshall

Why not? This would be met with all sorts of dumb negativity but Marshall's playing good footy with the Broncos and would be nothing more than a depth half. If Marshall proves himself to be a better option than Ata Hingano (they're both better than Mason Lino) then the Warriors get Marshall and Johnson forming a funky halves combo, if not then Hingano has raised his level of performance to demand selection.

Any negativity needs to be kept in perspective; Marshall would be cheap and he'd most likely be depth. He is a respected veteran who could assist in the development of Hingano (and Johnson) plenty, so there's not a lot to lose here.

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