Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: The Late Season Stage Is Set
King Koni.
"A really big opportunity missed today" said Shaun Johnson after New Zealand Warriors loss to Gold Coast Titans. Coach Stephen Kearney said it was a wee bit soft and when you're desperately trying to stay in the top-8 after sitting in the NRL wilderness, those aren't great reflections on a late-season performance. Yet, it's still all good and the craziness of the NRL rolls on as the three teams in pursuit of the Warriors 8th spot all suffered losses as well.
The Warriors, Wests Tigers and Newcastle Knights were all beaten by teams beneath them on the ladder. Canberra Raiders got torched by Melbourne Storm - as can happen - and while this was far from ideal for the Warriors, for them and the Tigers to lose to the Bulldogs and Titans respectively, is kinda the best of a crappy situation. The 11-8 winning record is still in tact and as all the teams below the Warriors have losing records, the Warriors still have a nice 4 point buffer on the Tigers who sit in 9th.
Let me chuck my Warriors spiritual guru crystals on, because this is all about 8th spot. Losing to the Titans and the rest of this season all comes back to 8th spot and whether the Warriors can show some clutchy clutch and seal a Finals spot. This is spiritual guru time because attention needs to solely be on 8th spot and not about cracking top-4, keep the expectations in check folks.
Sure, Penrith Panthers, Cronulla Sharks and Brisbane Broncos are all on 26 points and the Warriors only a couple of lovely results from leap-frogging all of them. Heck the Warriors are only a couple twists and turns away from cracking the Roosters/Dragons level. Cool ya jets though and stay zoned in on making top-8; we've been here too many times before and just need a top-8 spot.
All the worrying signs were there on the Gold Coast as the Warriors were blown off the park in a second half bonanza by the Titans. This was almost on par with the big losses of 2018 to better teams, only that it was concentrated and came against a weaker team and the opportunity missed here was failing to seal the deal. Instead of easing our concerns and shutting up all the Aussies who are certain of a Warriors slip up, they give more reason to ponder the worst case.
Obviously I'm not having a bar of that.
I celebrated the return of Blake Green prior to the game and still think that Green's presence is more important than Issac Luke. The issue here wasn't so much about Green, or Luke in this game though, it was more that this Warriors team looked very young and as we have seen in recent years; young Warriors teams aren't very good.
Jazz Tevaga played 72 minutes and Joseph Vuna played 80mins. That's a rather large difference to their standard usage and it's a lot different for Tevaga to be playing 50mins alongside Adam Blair, Tohu Harris and Simon Mannering, than 72mins as the workhorse middle forward.
Mannering was playing, but Mannering only played 43mins. In a team without Blair and Harris, this was the first time this season that Mannering played less than 50mins, only the second time this season that Mannering has played less than 55mins. Usually those 55-80mins come with Blair playing over 50mins as well.
Coach Kearney did some weird shit here. He left Vuna out on the field for 80mins, with Vuna having played three games this season, all of which were 20mins or less. Bunty Afoa played 21mins and for whatever reason, Sam Lisone was back in the mix for 27mins and the most impactful forward James Gavet who took 11runs/104m in just 26mins (hectic efficiency), only got 26mins around his neck issue.
Given that Luke and Tohu Harris weren't selected, I get the feeling that Kearney wanted to throw his second-tier to the wolves. Kearney could managed minutes far differently than he did, leading me to believe that he was eager to see how different players responded. That may have a whiff of under-estimating Gold Coast, but I reckon it's more a case of convenience as the club prepares for a monumental five game stretch.
What we know for sure is that the Warriors, like any non-Melbourne Storm team needs to have their best players to win games. I've celebrated the depth all season long, but that's more in terms of one player stepping in to replace another. Playing without three of your best players and on top of that giving Mannering a rest, is a different test of depth, especially as the Warriors play a specific style of footy that requires a super high skill level and grizzly veterans who don't stop hustling.
Regardless of who the opposition is, we have seen all season long and we have been reminded in a few games over the weekend that if you're off by a bit and your opposition is on, you're going to lose. The margin for error is so slim and Kearney will have an opportunity to re-set the standards required to seal a top-8 spot. The next five weeks are legit monumental, after a season in which we've seen many great signs of a new direction as well as signs that the process of change might be taking a bit longer than hoped. What happens in the next five games will reinforce either narrative.
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Peace and love 27.