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Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: LEVELS

Baked Green

As slick as Aotearoa Warriors have looked in their past two games, taking on Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs in Sydney could present a niggly challenge for the Warriors. The fantastic record of the Warriors in Australia this season balances things out, yet in their last four games, the Bulldogs have played Parramatta Eels, Wests Tigers, Brisbane Broncos and Manly Sea Eagles; guess which two teams the Bulldogs beat?

Yup, the two teams that are competing for top-8 spots. Against certified bottom-8 teams, the Doggies have stumbled, against better teams though they find a way to score 16 points against the Tigers for example, or 36 points against the Broncos. 

There's little reason to think that the Warriors will slip up against the Bulldogs, I'm just highlighting a little trend that has appeared with the Bulldogs out to spoil top-8 parties. Given how emphatic the Warriors have been defensively in wins over St George Illawara Dragons and Newcastle Knights, conceding just 16 points across both games, they should be able to restrict a fairly limited Bulldogs team to less than 16 points. 

Especially as another win, three big old W's in a row, would all but seal the Warriors a top-8 spot and put a load of pressure on those teams ahead of them on the ladder. Points differential is also an important factor at this stage of the season, which places greater relevance on how many points the Warriors concede against the Doggies. The more points the Bulldogs score, then the more points the Warriors need to score to win, but also the Warriors then need to score even more points to suss out their points differential; which could be the difference between sneak into the top-4 or finishing 8th.

The defence of the Warriors has been a great trend in August, giving us all oodles of confidence going into a game against a team that has scored the 2nd fewest points of any NRL team this season. Another trend in this same period has been the ability of the Warriors to score points from unstructured footy.

After the win over Newcastle, I highlighted how all three of the Warriors tries came from them reacting to the defence. Whether it was Roger Tuivasa-Sheck scampering across field to spark an attack, or even when the Warriors set up for a big backline shift to the right (structure), Blake Green and Shaun Johnson still had to step, jink and then pass based on their reaction to the defence. 

The week before, two of the Warriors tries came via offloads; Jazz Tevaga and Isaiah Papali'i offloads. That means, by my calculations, five of the six tries that the Warriors have scored in their last two wins, have came via some sort of unstructured footy. 

Throughout the season, the Warriors have juggled between razzle dazzle and structure. The structure has either come through set-plays, all of which have been creative and on point, or a loose structure from which the Warriors can play from; use structure to get the right edge 3 vs 3, or 3 vs 2 and then let Johnson etc execute whatever needs to be done. 

That's levels folks, levels to the attacking structure of the Warriors. Then we have the straight up razzle dazzle, which is Tuivasa-Sheck running across field, or someone offloading, or Issac Luke scampering out of dummy half, then offloading. The lack of structure is an almighty task to stop defensively, add on top of the lack of structure, various levels of structure and we get footy bliss from our Warriors. 

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When I bring that idea back to this game against the Bulldogs, I'm content knowing that the Warriors are equipped to deal with their opposition. The defence has been strong, so I'm confident that the Bulldogs won't be able to score enough points to really trouble the Warriors. I'm also confident that the Warriors can roll through their different schemes with the footy and score at least 20 points. 

We've been here before though this season, where the major factor that will decide the outcome of the game is the intensity and enthusiasm that either team plays with. The Warriors have been fizzing in their last two games and late in the season, they may struggle to reach the same level in Sydney; they aren't playing a top-8 team, nor are they in front of the Mt Smart faithful. 

Hence this is a low key interesting game. I've learned plenty about this Warriors group over the past two weeks, in terms of broad themes like their level of play and also in terms of specific stylistic elements of their play and what individuals offer. For the third week in a row, I've got that vibe and I'm eager to gauge the Warriors mindset - are they ruthless? - as well as enjoying how they play their footy. 

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Peace and love 27