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Diary Of An Aotearoa Warriors Fan: Sussing This Issac Luke Ting

As of early Monday morning, Issac Luke is still a free agent and appears to be stuck between Aotearoa Warriors and Newcastle Knights. Things could change very quickly with regards to Luke's playing future, right now this is a fascinating situation that requires a swift dump of thoughts before a decision is made.

Luke coming off-contract has been one of the hefty background stories of 2018 and Luke playing some delightful footy as the Warriors dummy half, just happens to coincide with him needing to put himself into the shop window. We probably wouldn't been in this very funky moment, had Luke played at his own high level upon arriving at Mt Smart as the Warriors would have likely moved to ensure that Luke was locked in on a deal that reflected his standing as one of the best hookers in the NRL.

Then again, had Luke lifted the Warriors upon his arrival through his classy dummy half work, then the Warriors may not have made wholesale changes to the club; Luke's first Warriors season was 2016, then Stephen Kearney started coaching in 2017. In a weird way, I'm happy with how everything has turned out because the Warriors are in a great position and are only in this position because of that short-term pain of 2016. For Luke however, that and a bung shoulder, doesn't make this process a smooth one.

We know that the Knights had a meeting with Luke as well as Mason Lino (I'll suss that this week) and one would assume that the Knights made Luke an offer that is generally better; more years for some late-career stability and more dosh. From a #KiwiNRL perspective, that in itself is bloody funky because the Knights already have two #KiwiNRL hookers who are capable of starting and playing 80 minutes in Slade Griffin and Danny Levi.

I'll stick to the Warriors perspective though. News of Luke requiring shoulder surgery has thrown a spanner into the works though and this would influence the Warriors decision, while also making the Knights cautious to invest in a 31-year-old hooker with a bung shoulder ... while their hooking stocks are already full.

Luke's needs and desires are also interesting, considering he moved back to Aotearoa to live life in the land of the long white cloud. This points to a more holistic approach, as the lure of Aotearoa may be worth 'x' amount of dollars and depending on his vibe, Luke may be willing to take a one or two year deal on less money to stay in this kiwi groove. We always hear the 'looking after the family' yarn when players sign for big money, so Luke could take care of the whanau in that regard but this also applies to Luke wanting to stay in Aotearoa, be around whanau etc.

As a free agent, in theory Luke holds the power as he chooses where he wants to finish his NRL career. This is somewhat unique though as his two main suitors are cautious in their approach to Luke, leaving Luke to ponder options that aren't anywhere close to what the ideal offer would likely be.

I'm not sure that the Warriors are spooked by Luke not being at his best when he arrived at Mt Smart, that's a fan and mainstream media narrative. Not too many of the current staff, or leaders in the playing group were there in 2016 and with far greater general leadership at Mt Smart, this would never happen. Think about all the changes that have been made and people who have come in (Kearney, Alex Corvo, Brian Smith, Cameron George, Tohu Harris, Adam Blair, Blake Green), would they let all their standards slip to allow for a player to not maintain the new standards? No.

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When Luke came to the Warriors, things were very, very different. The Warriors could be spooked by the shoulder, although I don't think this is as complex as some would make it out to be as the Warriors simply don't seem do have the salary cap space and dummy half vacancy to give Luke what he wants. It feels like the Warriors have given Luke their best offer, forget your opinions on 2016 Bully and anything else; the Warriors can only offer Luke what they have available.

The Warriors also have a talented young dummy half in Nathaniel Roache, who has yet to establish himself as a consistent NRL performer. We've all seen the glimpses of Roache's ability, they are nothing more than glimpses though and Roache isn't close to possessing the all-round ability of Luke at dummy half - Roache is quick, but hasn't shown any kicking game for example. Most notably though, right now Roache is a walking injury.

We haven't seen what Roache can do because Roache ain't been playing. Ideally, the Warriors have Luke for another season or two and can inject Roache off the bench, building him into his NRL career. Then as Luke's deal winds up, it's Roache who is the long-term dummy half. Look at what Melbourne Storm are doing withe the Waiheke Island youngster Brandon Smith; signed long-term and playing off the bench while Cameron Smith continues to dominate.

There is no rush in developing Brandon Smith because Cameron is still the best baller in the world and Brandon's locked down long-term. Sure, Brandon's a beast and has been playing as a middle forward, allowing him to soak up minutes and boost his development, but this is all about transition. To transition from Luke to Roache and/or Jazz Tevaga, over one summer, would be harsh, not smooth and given the Melbourne influence at Mt Smart, smooth seems more logical.

Re: Tevaga. He offers far more to the Warriors as a middle forward, who can then slot into dummy half if required via injury during a game (key thing there is during a game). I don't want Tevaga as the starting hooker, Roache would be better at that, but also because Tevaga's got a unique niche coming off the bench. Still waiting on Tevaga's free agency decision as well folks, looks as though he will re-sign.

Karl Lawton could be an option as well. Again though, there is a large difference between Lawton looking lively in a stint off the bench and starting games, putting a couple kicks in, running then passing/offloading at the line. A Lawton/Roache or Lawton/Tevaga combo would be service-able and this suggests that the Warriors have enough to absorb the loss of Luke without having to hit the market. Enough to give Roache time to ease back into the weekly NRL extravaganza, or grind.

Is it worth chasing someone like Christchurch's Matt McIlwrick, who made the mid-season switch from Wests Tigers to South Sydney Rabbitohs and would love a crack at NRL footy, or sticking with what is already at Mt Smart? The Warriors have options and there will be many more hookers up for grabs in the coming weeks, should Luke leave, along with their various options in-house.

None of those options are as good as Luke starting at dummy half in 2019 though, ideally with some Roache action at some stage. I reckon the Warriors still have the foundations around the dummy half position to maintain their top-tier ambitions if Luke leaves; those foundations have been well-built, slow and steady over the past two years. Luke helps immensely though and it's now up to Bully to suss out how the back-end of his career looks.

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Peace and love 27.