Today, we will be graced with our first Aotearoa Warriors team list for the 2020 NRL season. I'll suss that out as we move through the week, yet there is only one place to start for Warriors fans and observers in setting the line of expectation for this season. Warriors expectations and I have had an interesting relationship, specifically since the arrival of coach Stephen Kearney as I have seen incredibly high expectations set and incredibly irrational disappointment as a result.

Not from the Warriors, this is about those scattered around the outside of the Mt Smart bubble poking and prodding. Expectations have been a niggly and enticing idea when pondering the Warriors, which previously zoned in on media and fans hyping up the Warriors even though the Warriors have shown very few signs of being a top-tier NRL club. When blowing up expectations without any genuine substance, that's when we have an awkward over-correction from those same folk as reality starts to filter through the coffee plunger.

That is how I've felt in previous years and this has come with a level of leniency or coach Kearney. To this point, firing Kearney would have done very little for the Warriors other than taking the Warriors to their sixth coach of the decade and as a general rule of thumb for any sports team/club; cohesion, chemistry and consistency can't be overlooked.

Now Kearney is in his fourth season as coach and I am transitioning from observing how the club performed a rather hefty transition via the winds of change at Mt Smart, to now putting my focus in what the end result is. I've been favourable to the Warriors as they go through immense change and apparently make moves towards being the solid, hearty club that kiwi fans want. I've also been favourable as key players have been suffered serious injuries through this period; Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Tohu Harris are pillars of Mt Smart, any substantial time away for them has a legit impact.

This flowed into how I viewed the off-season as I was most interested in development - not how I want the Warriors to be a 'development club' which they've done a good job of embracing thus far. In this context, I'm talking about Kearney's development as a coach and the NRL squad's development as professional athletes. This can be boiled down to whether or not the Warriors NRL group has improved as people, athletes and footy players.

Legit improvement tends to come when the same people are together for their second or third off-season. Having been patient while I could see that the first few years of Kearney's tenure involved ripping apart Mt Smart to change the fabric of the club, now I'm interesting in what is sprinkled on top of those foundations The Warriors have straight up been a non-factor in the NRL during this period and I'm now intrigued by what comes out the other end.

Injuries and suspension will impact the Warriors, like they do for every club. With the foundations laid, the Warriors are in the best position they have been in under Kearney to deal with these variables; three-four halves competing for two spots, couple eager lad who can cover fullback and Tohu Harris' availability boosts the edge and middle forward stocks. This isn't perfect and at any stage the middle forward stocks could be depleted, although I feel as though the quality of depth is healthy in terms of skill and having a bunch of lads who must be desperate to make their mark in the NRL.

This is a mobile group, there is plenty of footwork and enough players with tangible zip to create problems. Everyone's got a bit of experience, this group has also been together for a couple years and there are only a couple fresh arrivals in Wade Egan and Jamayne Taunoa-Brown to mix in. We've all heard about a possible change in playing style and the Warriors are better suited to a more free-flowing style of footy, let's not pretend though that any NRL team can dictate a game with their style; the top-tier say 'fuck your style' and force you to do things their way.

All of which amounts to a baseline expectation of playing finals footy. After laying the foundations, missing out on finals footy would be a mark of little to no development/improvement and we would be watching the most stagnant kiwi sporting organisation to ever exist.

The NRL landscape moves fast and I've got no idea what is going to work this season, or which teams are going to be major factors and settle into the top-tier bracket. I can see a ceiling for a deep finals run if the stars align and wide-spread improvement at Mt Smart would see the Warriors trouble many teams with the footy, while also being able to restrict teams to less than 16 points per game.

Top-eight is the baseline as it's conservative, not blowing up expectations irrationally. I do not see the Warriors going on a massive win-streak and instead envision the Warriors getting deep into the NRL weeds, winning and losing games but doing so with a certain intensity and enthusiasm. If there is the required development, I'd suggest that back to back losses or numerous losses in a row will vanish - they have to.

Right now, the Warriors are not in the NRL's top-tier and have very little chance of winning the competition. That is an unrealistic expectation for the club and playing finals footy would be an impressive jump from previous seasons. Coach Kearney should be desperate to find that development and improvement, while the low key impressive leadership group led by Tuivasa-Sheck are probably desperate to be part of a winning team. With little off-season activity and consistency throughout the club in personnel, messaging and intent, finals footy can be touched.

Beyond cracking the top-eight and touching finals footy? That requires a wave of momentum and the rugby league deities providing magic and miracles to the Warriors. At the very least, by enduring a long dark night, the Warriors should have some positive karma to work with. It's completely up to the Warriors though to enable these factors, to open up to the possibilities by winning games in a vibrant fashion, offering a fun viewing experience and clawing their way to two points when required.

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Peace and love 27.