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Kiwi-NRL Finals Round Rua Preview

Kiwi-NRL finals footy rolls on after bidding farewell to Storm and Roosters, while Panthers and Cowboys kick back thanks to their wins last weekend. Eels face Raiders on Friday night followed by Sharks vs Rabbitohs on Saturday and all four teams have named at least three Kiwi-NRL players from Aotearoa.

Eels

Dylan Brown: Hikurangi Stags

Isaiah Papali'i: Te Atatu Roosters

Makahesi Makatoa: Marist Dragons

Marata Niukore: Mangere East Hawks

(Bailey Simonsson, Ofahiki Ogden)

Panthers were too classy for Eels last week which sets up intrigue about their bounce back against a funky Kiwi-NRL Raiders outfit. Eels have stuck with the same playing group, leaving Bailey Simonsson and Ofahiki Ogden on their extended bench, while Marata Niukore is named on the bench despite starting vs Panthers. Niukore has snuck into the starting team for the last four games at lock and this is still fairly bonkers considering Niukore started at centre for Aotearoa Kiwis a few months ago; who else can play centre and middle forward?

Niukore didn't have the same impact against Panthers as previous starting performances though and small details like pressuring Nathan Cleary's kicking game weren't executed. The likes of James Fisher-Harris and Moses Leota were exceptional as well to brew curiosity as to how Niukore is deployed against Raiders.

New Plymouth's Makahesi Makatoa only played six minutes against Panthers and along with Niukore, these two will be key figures in trying to slow down Joseph Tapine's middle dominance. Considering how impressive Panthers were against Eels physically, this could be a warning sign for Eels or reason to expect an intense bounce back.

A basic premise of Eels footy is punching through the defensive line or at least running hard and straight to engage defenders. The Kiwi-NRL lens helps us understand this as Dylan Brown and Isaiah Papali'i were both below-par in running mahi, thus limiting what Eels can do in attack.

Dylan Brown averages 117m/game and this is significantly more than most halves, bolstered by five consecutive games with 100+ running metres heading into finals footy. Brown then dipped to 88m in the last game of the season against Storm but still had 7 tackle busts, before grabbing just 54m against Panthers. If Brown doesn't establish his running game, Eels won't win.

Papali'i had 17 runs for 110m, averaging 6.47m/run. Papali'i has averaged 130+ metres per game for back to back seasons and while 110m is a dip from this average, no tackle busts vs Panthers and 6.47m/run is well below Papali'i's best footy. Papali'i averages 3.6 tackle busts per game and this was just his fifth game (of 25 games) with no tackle busts this season.

While Eels have plenty of other players offering hearty mahi, this Kiwi-NRL focus lays everything out nicely. Brown plays on the Eels left edge and Papali'i on their right edge, so a notable dip in their running signals a lack of oomph on either side of their attack. If these two can get back to their regular performances, Eels are offloading and Mitchell Moses has far more time to organise his crew.

Raiders

Jordan Rapana: Wellington

Matthew Timoko: Mt Wellington Warriors

Joseph Tapine: Harbour City Eagles

Corey Harawira-Naera: Otaua Valley Warriors

(Ata Mariota, Peter Hola, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad)

Joseph Tapine vs Storm:

66mins, 21 runs - 216m @ 10.28m/run, 3 linebreak assists, 1 try assist, 6 tackle busts, 3 offloads, 29 tackles @ 96.67%.

Tapine's attacking mahi is blatantly exceptional. Tapine has three consecutive games with 190+ running metres and he's averaging 3.12 tackle busts per game, plus 1.87 offloads per game. Tapine is also tackling at 95 percent efficiency (693 tackles) and he has missed one tackle in each of his last two games, also enjoying a run of seven consecutive games with two or less missed tackles. Raiders are only here because they won most of those games and while Tapine has elevated to an elite middle forward, his defensive mahi has been as influential.

Tapine played 66mins vs Storm and this was fourth game this season playing 60+ minutes (24 games). Tapine played 50mins without a break against Storm and his deployment against Eels will either see him get an earlier rest to prepare for a monster late-game shift, or Tapine could flex against the Eels bench and take advantage of those match ups.

Corey Harawira-Naera benefits from Adam Elliott's injury, moving into a starting middle role and perhaps throwing up Harawira-Naera vs Niukore as starting locks. After plugging holes in the Raiders line up all season this feels like a lovely ascension for Harawira-Naera and how he impacts Raiders footy will be an intriguing wrinkle.

Against Storm, Harawira-Naera played 25mins with a tackle bust, three offloads and seven runs for 68m. That's 9.71m/run and his impact off the bench gave Raiders plenty of energy, plus attacking funk. Now Harawira-Naera is starting and how he flows between these roles could be a low key factor in the forwards battle.

Matthew Timoko was fantastic against Storm and is likely to line up against Tom Opacic at centre, although Timoko will need to handle Shaun Lane and Brown down that Eels edge. Anyone who has seen Timoko play footy (whether for Auckland Grammar 1st 15 or junior rugby league) knows all about his powerful running and none of this should be surprising for Kiwi-NRL fans. Nifty defence is what keeps a youngster like Timoko in the Raiders team all season and against Justin Olam, Timoko had 13 tackles with just one miss.

Timoko's mana was on display against Storm and he played his role in an impressive Raiders defensive effort. Early in the game, Storm had repeat sets on the Raiders try line and the Kiwi-NRL lens helps us understand fundamentals of goal line defence. Timoko and the Raiders edge push up, hunting that 10m line and Timoko flashes some defensive prowess as he bites on the short-ball (Kenny Bromwich) knowing he's well set to then cover the wider runners...

There was also a flow during this opening stanza when Timoko took a run down the centre-left channel on the fourth play, leaving him recuperating in the middle as Nick Cotric took the next run. Jack Wighton then booms a left-footed kick down the field and Timoko churns out extra efforts to be part of the kick chase, ensuring that Cameron Munster can't spark an attack...

Sharks

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Ronaldo Mulitalo: Ellerslie Eagles

Briton Nikora: Tauranga

Braden Hamlin-Uele: Glenora Bears

(Mawene Hiroti)

Ronaldo Mulitalo and Briton Nikora are among a bunch of Sharks who played all 93 minutes in their loss to Cowboys. Mulitalo was typically excellent and I'm eager to see him playing alongside Jordan Rapana as a quirky, yet fabulous wing combo for Aotearoa Kiwis. Nikora only had six runs and 61m against Cowboys but he made 55 tackles, leading into what is likely to be an edge forward battle against Jai Arrow.

That individual battle flows into Rabbitohs left edge attack featuring Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell against Nikora's right edge. How Sharks defend the Rabbitohs' major weapon will be fascinating and under Craigh Fitzgibbons' coaching, Sharks will have a scheme to limit damage from the Rabbitohs left edge.

Braden Hamlin-Uele only played 24mins vs Cowboys and while he was efficient with 10 runs for 100m (10m/run), coach Fitzgibbons opted for smaller, more mobile forwards. Dale Finucane, Teig Wilton and Cameron McInnes all played 60+ minutes for example, while Toby Rudolf played 46mins. Royce Hunt (37mins) and Andrew Fifita (16mins) sit in a similar bracket as Hamlin-Uele as Sharks balanced power with mobility.

This may lead to more minutes this week vs Rabbitohs for Hamlin-Uele. Bouncing back from that monster effort against Cowboys may be a factor or more aggression in the Rabbioths team may require more power from Sharks. Hamlin-Uele started and played 40+ minutes in each of the last three games this season against weaker opponents, so watch out for his usage off the bench.

Rabbitohs

Kodi Nikorima: Christchurch/Manawatu

Siliva Havili: Manurewa Marlins

Michael Chee Kam: Mt Wellington Warriors

(Jaxson Paulo)

All three Kiwi-NRL Rabbitohs are on the bench with Kodi Nikorima only getting 4mins of footy against Rabbitohs, leaving Siliva Havili as the leading utility. Tongan fans should be tracking Havili closely as he's a key leader for Tonga who is likely to be Tonga's primary dummy half, plus Havili is shining as a reliable figure for Rabbitohs.

In a ruthless encounter with Roosters, Havili had five runs for 53m and 23 tackles at 92 percent. That's exactly the efficiency Rabbitohs need from Havili and he is a valuable back up to Damien Cook as well as providing a smaller, mobile middle forward option. Havili's 92m/game is a career high, same with his 21 offloads this season.

Michael Chee Kam also earns a promotion to the Rabbitohs bench as he and Havili step up in their first season with Rabbitohs. While Havili has played 22 games, Chee Kam has only played four games and after six seasons with Tigers hopefully Chee Kam can get a decent stint through the middle for Rabbitohs where his footwork and skill could be an x-factor.

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