Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Winning Footy Notebook
NZ Warriors defeated Bulldogs for the second time this season and showcased key themes of winning footy. While the NRL draw doesn't make much sense, it does offer a gauge for Warriors footy as they have played Bulldogs, Cowboys, Knights and Roosters twice in just 11 games. Warriors have swept aside Bulldogs and Cowboys, split the double-dip against Knights and lost both games against Roosters.
The away win over Bulldogs saw Warriors miss 55 tackles, more than twice as many missed tackles as they had in their first win over Bulldogs at Mt Smart. Warriors conceded 14 points while missing 24 tackles in the first game vs Bulldogs, then conceded 12 points in the second game. While not ideal this does highlight how Warriors can win in different ways. Warriors were 6-26 down against Sharks and somehow won that encounter and they also defeated Cowboys at Mt Smart with just 44% possession.
Part of the funk sits with coaches Andrew Webster and Cameron Ciraldo. Both were assistant coaches at Panthers and Ciraldo's appointment with Bulldogs featured far more hype than Webster joining Warriors. Ponder these comparisons (Warriors vs Bulldogs)...
Set Completion: 82% vs 76%
Missed Tackles: 369 vs 382
Penalties Conceded: 67 vs 80
Post Contact Metres: 5,056 vs 4,794
Tries: 36 vs 31
Points Conceded: 210 vs 282
Kick Return Metres: 2,076 vs 1,925
Kick Metres: 7,118 vs 6,987
Ciraldo was the defensive coach for Panthers, yet Webster has Warriors missing less tackles and conceding less points. For all the noise about referees and Warriors, Bulldogs have conceded 13 more penalties to start the season. Warriors are competitive in every game because of their completion rate which has been first or second for much of the season.
Against Bulldogs, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad mopped up everything at fullback. Matt Burton's kicking game wasn't a factor because Nicoll-Klokstad swallowed all the bombs, along with Marcelo Montoya and Dalln Watene-Zelezniak. This is a key aspect of Nicoll-Klosktad's value at fullback as he is averaging 0.8 errors per game, making no errors in four of his nine games. Most notably, Nicoll-Klokstad has no errors against Burton's Bulldogs this season.
Last season Reece Walsh averaged 1.7 errors per game with Warriors and this has risen slightly to 1.8 errors this season with Broncos. Nicoll-Klokstad lacks the x-factor of Walsh, but Walsh averages twice as many errors as the City Newton junior. Nicoll-Klokstad also runs like a forward and is averaging 182m/game this season, slightly higher than his previous best of 179m/game in 2020 with Raiders.
Nicoll-Klokstad consistently takes two runs per set which eases the workload on forwards who churn out rugged mahi like Addin Fonua-Blake and Tohu Harris. Tamatea junior Harris played 80mins vs Bulldogs and this was his fifth game of 80mins in eight appearances. While not as robust as Fonua-Blake, folks can depend on Harris to crack 120m/game and make 30+ tackles.
Fonua-Blake returned to his status-quo of efficient mahi vs Bulldogs, dominating the middle with 12 runs - 162m @ 13.5m/run and 78 Post Contact Meteres. No Bulldogs forward had more than 50 PCM. Harris was next best Warriors forward with 54 PCM. This performance came after Fonua-Blake played 67+ minutes against Storm, Roosters and Panthers which sit as his only games over 55min this season.
Thanks to Nicoll-Klokstad running like a prop and insanely hard running from Montoya and Watene-Zelezniak, Harris and Fonua-Blake have space to save energy. Harris and Fonua-Blake are the only Warriors in the top-50 for tackles made (mid-round Sunday morning) and both are tackling above 95%. Neither is required to take a run until tackles four or five, allowing them to concentrate energy towards a hearty run late in the set or their defensive workload.
Peep the trend as Shaun Johnson's tackling has improved...
2018: 3.6 missed tackles per game
2019: 1.8 missed tackles per game
2020: 2.6 missed tackles per game
2021: 2.5 missed tackles per game
2022: 2.2 missed tackles per game
2023: 1.2 missed tackles per game
Johnson is also kicking more, averaging 591.5 kicking metres per game. This is Johnson's first season over 430 kicking metres per game in his career and he had his third consecutive game with two forced drop-outs against Bulldogs. Johnson has a forced drop-out in nine of his 11 games this season.
Against Bulldogs, Johnson made a bunch of low kicks into open space along with his steady supply of high bombs and curling grubbers. This worked well with Ronald Volkman and his try threw up a few interesting wrinkles.
Prior to Volkman's try, he made a kick two passes off the ruck. Then he tidied up a loose pass that was meant for Johnson before trying to thread a grubber between defenders with the intention to chase it. Given how much kicking Johnson does, Volkman offers a release valve with lovely footy instincts to find the right kick when needed. Earlier in the game Volkman landed a bomb just in front of the try-line and he finished with 89 kicking metres, which was a notable increase in Walker's kicking when playing as a half (27km, 32km, 61km, 10km).
Te Maire Martin had 93 kicking metres in the first win over Bulldogs, so this is not specific to Volkman. The basic premise of having two kicking options is fundamental to good footy, especially when opposition teams load up on Johnson.
That flows into the benefit of having Dylan Walker play as a middle forward. As per the script, Walker came on after 20mins to replace Bunty Afoa and the dynamic of the Warriors forward pack changed as it had done earlier in the season. Afoa is shining in his role as a dominant physical presence, along with lads like Marata Niukore and Tom Ale. But the Walker wrinkle is clearly evident in numerous tries this season, most recently Fonua-Blake's try vs Bulldogs...
Walker finished with 18 passes, a few more than Harris' 12 passes. 10+ passes each for two middle forwards without a drop off in physicality or defensive grit. Fonua-Blake is scoring lots of tries because of the passing in the middle and this highlights how Warriors can expose lapses in middle defence.
Warriors kept turning edge forwards Josh Curran and Marata Niukore back towards the middle against Bulldogs, to further compound the pressure on their middle forwards. That’s after Nicoll-Klokstad takes a run around the ruck, which came after Montoya and Watene-Zelezniak went bonkers running into the defensive line. Warriors didn't just make the Bulldogs middles work hard throughout the set of six, they challenge the defence with every run. This may lead to one lazy defender around the ruck, or more fatigue that causes lapses when Walker attacks with multiple passing options.
Freddy Lussick has started two games in a row, with Wayde Egan coming off the bench. Lussick has proven himself more than capable of whatever coach Webster wants alongside Egan and as Egan battles through injury, Lussick is a lovely bloke to have in the mix. Lussick offers grizzly defence as well and this isn't surprising given Freddy is the younger brother of Darcy Lussick, plus he’s had a boxing scrap (loss vs Taylan May).
Lussick is a tough bugger, so is Egan. Both are tackling at 93% this season and there is fabulous value in having two hookers who offer crafty attack while maintaining defensive mana. Paul Roache didn't play NSW Cup on Saturday but he previously plugged the hole left by Lussick's promotion. Edge forwards Maia Sands and Kalani Going filled in without Roache.
Depth is already a key aspect of Warriors footy and this will only be amplified as the season rolls along. Warriors have Adam Pompey, Rocco Berry, Viliami Vailea and Ali Leiataua covering centre, with Montoya capable of plugging the hole if required. This yarn highlighted the similarities in Pompey, Berry and Vailea, which flows into Leiataua as he was a slick 1st 15 player and decorated league junior in Aotearoa.
Luke Metcalf returned to NSW Cup and Warriors have four halves to deploy, with Walker offering cover if required. Martin will return at some point, while Volkman and Metcalf are hungry for opportunities.
Demtiric Sifakula has already made his debut this season, supporting Ale as dynamic bench forwards. Bayley Sironen continues to cover all forward positions and he rotated on to an edge vs Bulldogs, giving Niukore a break. Mitchell Barnett will offer even more aggression when he returns from injury. There is no shortage of young forwards grinding away in reserve grade with NRL potential; Zyon Maiu'u, Kalani Going, Isaiah Vagana, Leka Halasima.
Tuaupiki offers fullback cover and provides zip that the NRL team lacks. Moala Graham-Taufa has settled back into Auckland after rising through the Roosters system and as an elite Kiwi-NRL junior, Graham-Taufa (and twin bro Lani) has NRL outside back potential. Wellington's Sanele Aukusitino could also develop into a fringe NRL winger with more reserve grade footy.
Canterbury's Tanner Stowers-Smith has already jumped up to NSW Cup from SG Ball, joining Wellington's Jacob Laban and Southern Cross Campus student Halasima. The Warriors talent pipeline is flowing nicely after the pandemic years and the three levels of Warriors footy this year feature local juniors snapping up opportunities.
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Peace and love.