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An Optimistic Perspective About The New Zealand Warriors Future Without Tohu Harris

Tohu Harris has retired and New Zealand Warriors continue to plow forwards under the guidance of the two Andys (McFadden and Webster). The Harris situation was one of five funky storylines highlighted here which described this as 'Harris has the most uncertainty of the established NZW players'. All of that is now certain with Harris' retirement and like most New Zealand sports pockets, now is not a time to be stuck in the past.

NZW won five games with Harris in the team last season and four without him. Harris didn't play in two of the best wins last season in which second-tier NZW teams defeated Panthers and Dolphins, nor did Harris play in the win over Sharks to finish the season.

NZW also went pretty well when Harris' minutes dropped mid-season. Harris played 60+ minutes in the first nine games and NZW went 3-5-1. After a three game absence, Harris returned to play less than 60 minutes in four consecutive games and NZW went 2-2. Not only did NZW almost win as many games without Harris as they did with Harris, there was not a signifcant difference in their winning when Harris dropped below 60 minutes.

There is a strong leadership core ready to take NZW forward. Mitchell Barnett took over as captain when Harris was absent and his mahi as captain led to selection for Australia. James Fisher-Harris is the captain for Aotearoa Kiwis. The Barnett/Fisher-Harris combo is the most exciting thing to look forward to next season and both have impeccable leadership to steer NZW in the right direction.

Along with the captaincy tier there are senior players like Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Te Maire Martin, Wayde Egan and Kurt Capewell who build out the leadership core. There were lots of opportunities to play without the skipper last year and this gave space for new leaders to emerge, then NZW recruited one of the best leaders in Aotearoa sport.

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Harris played as a middle forward where he offered top-tier hard mahi in terms of running/tackling and at his best, his subtle passing was a fundamental aspect of NZW success. One weakness for NZW last season was how slow they were and their line up often had no players who were fast for their positions. Harris' absence allows NZW to get faster without losing the mahi or passing that Harris offered.

NZW will move towards 'small forwards'. Dylan Walker is likely to be a starting middle forward and new recruit Erin Clark will probably demand a bench spot. Both played junior footy in the halves yet both love the physicality of NRL footy in the middle. Walker is more skilled as a distribution point, while Clark is faster and more aggressive.

Not only did the two Andys recruit Clark for this season, they started their era at Mt Smart by recruiting Kalani Going from rugby union. Going has been developed as a small forward under the two Andys and while he may appear to lack the upside of trendy youngsters, Going is at least an example of the two Andys recruiting a style of player they want in their system.

Going has a supplementary/development contract for 2025. While these contract brackets are important for players, fans shouldn't worry because Going can play any time and any number of NRL games on this contract as opposed to a top-30 contract. NZW have shuffled a few lads out of their squad and upgraded Going, because he is cheaper and has strong distribution skills with the required physicality.

NZW have three players who can play the passing role and all three are faster than Harris. Walker and Clark are primed to share small forward duties next season. Going has had two full seasons in a winning NSW Cup team where has been a mature presence in a young squad and this is his third summer training under coach Andrew Webster.

Kalani Going in NSW Cup

2023: 24 games, 58% wins, 11 tries, 82 tackle breaks, 7 offloads, 115m/game, 91.9% tackling

2024: 25 games, 56% wins, 2 tries, 44 tackle breaks, 6 offloads, 131m/game, 92.9% tackling

This is a clear trend of the two Andys era as they have recruited and developed a specific style of forward. Toughness, relative speed and passing. Chanel Harris-Tavita has all these attributes as well and it doesn't seem like a coincidence that the two Andys were eager to get Harris-Tavita straight back into the group after he went walkabouts.

NZW also have enough depth in the halves with Martin, Luke Metcalf, Tanah Boyd and Harris-Tavita to keep Walker in the middle forward slot. Maybe the signing of Boyd forecasts that Harris-Tavita will skew towards the small forward position too.

Same goes for dummy half as NZW signed Sam Healey to sit behind Egan and Freddie Lussick. Clark has dummy half experience but along with promising youngsters Makaia Tafua and Jacob Auloa, NZW have more than enough cover at hooker to keep Clark in the middle forward slot.

Outside of that role, NZW have an abundance of forwards coming through the pipeline who are hungry to snap up opportunities for more game time. Considering how the two Andys have slowly brewed these local juniors in NSW Cup with sporadic NRL minutes over the last two years, perhaps they had a process to work through leading to this precise moment.

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That may be the reason why lads like Tom Ale and Bunty Afoa haven't settled as consistent NRL players under coach Webster as they are learning a details of the Webster system. This is amplified by playing big minutes in a good NSW Cup team that is rolling out the same structures as the NRL team. Regardless, they are competing with Clark, Marata Niukore, Jackson Ford, Demitric Vaimauga and Leka Halasima for two-three spots on the bench.

Add in Jacob Laban and Zyon Maiu'u. NZW upgraded Tanner Stowers-Smith at the same time as Going and promoted Eddie Ieremia-Toeava this summer, both of whom have the potential to make their NRL debuts this season. Under the two Andys, NZW have combined talent with clear development paths to being consistent NRL players and fans should have faith in the pipeline that has been established.

Take this further as the youngsters have had at least two summers training under coach Webster during their formative years. There is plenty of middle/edge versatility as well which is evident in the best forwards such as Barnett and the youngsters such as Halasima who played his first NRL minutes through the middle before shifting to centre to plug holes.

Here is a map of the forward pack depth

Starting middles: James Fisher-Harris, Mitchell Barnett (edge), Dylan Walker - Wayde Egan

Starting edges: Kurt Capewell, Marata Niukore

Bench: Freddie Lussick, Erin Clark, Jackson Ford (edge), Demitric Vaimauga

Next best: Leka Halasima (edge), Jacob Laban (edge), Kalani Going, Bunty Afoa, Zyon Maiu'u

Could debut: Tanner Stowers-Smith, Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (edge)

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