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Another Underwhelming Round One For New Zealand Warriors To Start The 2025 NRL Season

For the second year in a row, New Zealand Warriors started their season with an underwhelming performance after spending the whole summer training harder and smarter than ever before. NZW went down 8-30 against Canberra Raiders and didn't do much right in the loss as they were monstered by a bigger forward pack, were burnt by a faster team and offered 'shape to sidelines' in another clunky attacking display.

This loss vs Raiders was similar to the round one loss vs Cronulla Sharks at Mt Smart last season, far too similar. Last season NZW lost 12-16 to Sharks in a game where they 54 percent possession, a higher completion rate (81% vs 76%), longer average set distance (44.74m vs 38.78m) and a faster average play the ball speed (3.34sec vs 3.47sec). NZW even had a slightly better tackling percentage (91.85% vs 88.49%) but were beaten on their home turf.

Only three players from the NZW backline vs Sharks and five from the starting forward pack/bench played against Raiders. Having eight of the 17 players from round one last season backing up for round one this season shows a decent changeover in the group, plus they were playing in a different country on a field that had different dimensions, yet there was the same underwhelming performance.

NZW lost most of the statistical pockets vs Raiders but they still had a higher completion rate (75% vs 69%) and faster average play the ball speed (3.57sec vs 3.72sec). Raiders made twice as many offloads as NZW (9 vs 17) but they made the same number of errors (13). NZW made 55 more passes on less possession with 49 more receipts of the footy than Raiders, yet Raiders scored 28 more points.

These two round one losses were different. Sharks came to Mt Smart and worked hard to grind NZW down over 80 minutes, the type of away win that strengthens team culture. Raiders blew NZW away with their power, speed and a clear game plan that was well executed. Two different losses but they share the round one factor and with such poor displays in the opening games of the season, one has to wonder what NZW have been doing in training all summer.

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There is one bloke leading the summer training period and that's the coach. On top of two disappointing performances in round tahi, coach Andrew Webster made a strange selection move for the opening game of the season by starting Jackson Ford as a middle forward. Ford played the first 50:39mins and in this period Raiders scored four tries to the one try for NZW.

Ford's effort is admirable and he is a useful squad member to have plugging holes throughout the season. For many, including myself, Ford is not a top-17 player for NZW with a full strength team and yet he played more minutes than James Fisher-Harris. Ford started ahead of Erin Clark, despite Clark's aggression and speed making NZW look fun during the pre-season.

That is coach Webster's decision and he followed up his Ford starting plan by only injecting the young forwards into the game once the result was sussed. Leka Halasima came on in the 55th minute when NZW were down 4-22 and Demitric Vaimauga entered the game in the 67th minute, when NZW were down 4-28.

Halasima and Vaimauga are young forwards who can impact games with their relative speed, power, offloading ability (both had an offload each in limited minutes) and aggression. Coach Webster kept the same players on the field and got the same result in the first 50 minutes, ignoring the players who could change the flow of the game against a vibrant Raiders team.

Halasima replaced Marata Niukore on the right edge and Vaimauga came on for Kurt Capewell but Mitchell Barnett moved to the left edge with Vaimauga playing through the middle. It was a bummer that the young forwards weren't given a crack at changing the game, but this also throws up a curious situation at edge forward.

Personally, I prefer Halasima and Vaimauga playing through the middle. Especially with Clark and Dylan Walker rotating through the middle as small forwards. Based on the performance vs Raiders, there is no reason why Jacob Laban can't be given an opportunity to start as an edge and build towards being an 80-minute edge forward.

This would probably bump Niukore back to the bench where he joins Walker and the young forwards, offering a big body who can cover middle and edge. In keeping with coach Webster's patterns, he doesn't seem keen to give the youngsters a decent opportunity though and Laban wasn't even in the top-19 for round one.

Capewell and Niukore didn't play 80mins vs Raiders. Niukore rarely plays 80mins so NZW need edge forward cover on the bench and Capewell isn't playing well enough to demand selection as an 80-minute edge forward. Here's how they went vs Raiders...

  • Kurt Capewell: 6 runs - 39m @ 6.5/run, 30 tackles @ 71.4%, 1 error, 1 penalty conceded

  • Marata Niukore: 8 runs - 63m @ 7.8m/run, 2 tackle breaks, 23 tackles @ 76.6%, 1 error

Coach Webster has made these selections, as well as the halves combo. Such selections are all good if coach Webster is getting these lads to play at a high level, bringing the best out of them as individuals and in their edge combinations. The selections were compounded by poor performances and coach Webster will probably opt for the same selections hoping for a different result.

Another detail that does not reflect well on the coach is support play, especially around the ruck where Raiders and good NRL team plow through any small opening. Wayde Egan is not a fast dummy half and Raiders not only had speed on their edges, they had a quick hooker in Tom Starling as well as Kaeo Weekes bursting forward around the ruck.

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Egan can still drift out of dummy half, holding defenders still with his passing ability. Because Egan moves in slow-motion around the ruck and is an exceptional passer, he needs support runners pushing up with him to provide options. Instead, most of Egan's scoots out of dummy half vs Raiders saw him do his slow-mo running ... into defenders.

Here are some examples of Egan getting out of dummy half. In most of them, Egan sees that there is only one marker and that's his trigger to push out of the ruck. In just one of these examples there is a support runner in Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and this doesn't lead to anything substantial. It's also worth highlighting that Egan isn't fast, so the other players don't need to be fast to keep up with him.

NSW Cup and Under 21 Jersey Flegg Cup starts this weekend. Both teams are playing Raiders in Sydney and the NSW Cup squad of 18 features 16 players who are from Aotearoa, most of whom have elevated through the NZW pipeline...

  • Backline: Geronimo Doyle (Otahuhu), Morgan Harper (Ngaruawahia), Rocco Berry (Greytown) Moala Graham-Taufa (Marist), Edward Kosi (Mangere East), Te Maire Martin (Turangawaewae), Tanah Boyd

  • Forwards: Tom Ale (Mt Albert), Sam Healey, Bunty Afoa (Pt Chevalier), Jacob Laban (Te Aroha), Eddie Ieremia-Toeava (Otahuhu), Kalani Going (Mid-Northern)

  • Bench: Freddy Lussick, Tanner Stowers-Smith (Halswell), Tobias Crosby (Greytown), Sio Kali (Pt Chevalier) - Caleb Laiman (Marist)

The U21 team has a few holes in the line up as they haven't named one centre and there is a vacant spot on the bench. The only players who haven't come up through the NZW pipeline are Brandon Norris who moved to Aotearoa from Northern Territory and the halves combination from Penrith in Luke Hanson and Jett Cleary. Jackson Kite and Saxon Day are named in the extended squad with both moving to Aotearoa from Sunshine Coast.

  • Backline: Motu Pasikala (Liston College), Brandon Norris, Sefanaia Cowley-Lupo (Bay Roskill), Raphael Sio (Pt Chevalier), Luke Hanson, Jett Cleary

  • Forwards: Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea (Mangere East), Makaia Tafua (Linwood), Harry Durbin (Pikiao), Alvin Chong Nee (Manurewa), Kayliss Fatialofa (Otara), Etuate Fukofuka (St Peter's College)

  • Bench: Jacob Auloa (Pt Chevalier), Jason Seu Salalilo (Papanui), Presley Seumanu Tigafua (Mt Albert) - Jackson Kite, Saxon Day.

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