February 28: Leicester City sit top of the table but barely after losing to Arsenal in their previous game. It had looked like they’d sneak a valuable draw only for Danny Welbeck’s last gasp header to deal their unlikeliest of title challenges a massive blow, shrinking their lead to only two points. With their goal difference, even a draw could see Arsenal or Spurs overtake them. In the Foxes advantage was that their home tie with Norwich would come a day before either of those teams played, so they could at least cast the first blow following a 13 day break for FA Cup games.

Except that struggling Norwich had other ideas. Despite an onslaught of Leicester attacks, the Canaries defended valiantly and as time went by it began to feel like this would be one of those ones that got away. Claudio Ranieri didn’t hold back. He changed formation in bringing off Shinji Okazaki and putting Jeffrey Schlupp on out wide left. Marc Albrighton switched sides and Riyad Mahrez moved central where he could get on the ball more. Ten minutes to play and off came right back Daniel Amartey and on came striker Leonardo Ulloa. Still they pressed, still they were denied.

And then this happened:

Mahrez picks the ball up on the break, carries it to the edge of the box drawing in two defenders, then feeds it wide to Albrighton. His cross is sent delectably low across the front of the goal, Vardy gets a slight touch but Leo Ulloa is there at the far post to bury it for an 89th minute winner and three enormous points. A day later Spurs had to fight back with all their might to claim a 2-1 win over Swansea, while Arsenal went and lost limply to Manchester United. Man City didn’t play with the League Cup final on – which they won.

March 2: Once again Leicester played a day before their three main rivals. Home to West Brom, another chance to take a step ahead and lay on the pressure. What they didn’t count upon, with their slender two point lead over Tottenham, was to concede a Salomon Rondon goal 11 minutes in. Not many strikers have gotten the best of Robert Huth like that this season. However Danny Drinkwater went and levelled it with a deflected effort to make it 1-1 at the break.

And then straight after half time the Foxes were on top. A typically furious and flourished move finished off with a mid-air backheeled assist from Mahrez and a fine curling shot by Andy King. But WBA had another one in them. Craig Gardner’s free kick levelling things at 2-2.

Leicester went full steam ahead for that winner, as they always do, but this time there was no heroic late goal. Instead they hit the post twice and Ben Foster made a couple nice saves. Ulloa almost repeated the magic at the far post in the final minute but this time the ball rolled agonisingly beyond him. 2-2 the final score and Spurs had the chance to go top the next day, not to mention Arsenal and Manchester City’s own potential retaliations.

March 3: Never mind. There was blood on the streets of London and Manchester (metaphorically) as Spurs were beaten 1-0 by West Ham in a brilliant performance from the home team, Manchester City were picked to pieces by a vengeful Liverpool at Anfield 3-0 and Arsenal somehow contrived to blow a 1-0 lead at home to Swansea and lose 2-1. Leicester drop two points and the rest of them drop three. Turns out God is as much of a bandwagon Leicester fan as the rest of us.

March 6: Oh but it gets better. Another mid-table team putting up a concerted defensive wall before them and another game in which it looked like Leicester may not find a way through. But they usually find a way though. Step up Riyad Mahrez.

Oh my, what a goal. The way he took it down in his stride and then shuffled to fire it between the two onrushing defenders and right into the top corner is simply stunning. It proved the only goal of the match and put the Foxes five points clear at the top after ten-man Arsenal equalised with a quarter of an hour to go for a 2-2 draw vs Spurs. Man City pumped Aston Villa 4-0 but they’re even further back.

It’s been an incredible week or two for Leicester City. Things just keep breaking their way. Nine games to play and five points up. The question to wonder now is, having begun as a hot start, developed into a fun little storyline and then a cheeky pipedream… is the Premier League now Leicester City’s title to lose?

You’d assume that Chelsea can’t make up 20 points in nine games. In fact you’d probably assume that Manchester United and Liverpool, with their busy schedules and self-flagellating habits of taking a step back for every one forward, are pretty much out of the running too. As for West Ham, I mean how many surprise teams can one season have? The Hammers by rights should be the darlings of 2015-16 but instead they’re flying under the radar in fifth place! 11 points is a long way to come back from though.

That leaves three teams to challenge them. Three teams with various Achilles heels, from Spurs’ reputation to Arsenal’s emotional brittleness and City’s lack of steam. Make no mistake, all three of them are still very much in the running still. But before looking at them we have to see whether Leicester are even gonna give them a sniff with the path to the trophy clear before them. It’s all in their hands. They can even afford a loss in there.

Leicester City’s remaining schedule:

Newcastle United (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Southampton (H)
Sunderland (A)
West Ham United (H)
Swansea City (H)
Manchester United (A)
Everton (H)
Chelsea (A)

That last month is brutally tough, trips to Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge as well as tough home games against West Ham and Everton. There are several banana peels in there, including Southampton at home – not an easy team to beat at all. But in the short term there are very, very winnable games against Newcastle, Palace and Sunderland. Beat the Toon and they might get Schteve McClaren sacked, while Palace haven’t won a league game in 2016 and Sunderland have a habit of silly defensive mistakes that even Big Sam hasn’t quite ironed out yet. These are big games in the title race as they look to find the daylight that’ll save them during that dusky finish.

And they can do it. The thing that the Foxes have shown all season is that no team is unbeatable. Well, they did lose twice to Arsenal but Arsenal prove that theory on their own every March anyway. There are dropped points scattered through their results – like a draw against Villa – but then there are highlight wins over Man City and Spurs as well. There’s no pressure on the Foxes because they’re just enjoying the ride, laughing more with each week that comes and goes with the bubble left unburst. Initially we were all waiting for that to happen. They’d lose one then two then three and slip back down into mid-table obscurity but it never happened. Maybe it still will. Jeezus, though, this close to the finish you hope it bloody won’t – this is a real life fairytale. It’s not that Hollywood couldn’t script it because they could, it’d just be a rubbish movie with zero groundings in reality. If Roy of the Rovers signed for Leicester he’d be stuck on the bench behind Leonardo Ulloa.

Reasons that Leicester will win:

The five point buffer.
Nobody else is weaving together a run of wins.
Ranieri’s calm assurances.
Riyad Mahrez.
A decent enough fixture list.
They score goals, often and at important times.
The momentum of an indomitable spirit.
They’ve already played out vs the top four (2W/2D/2L).
Just the one competition they’re left playing in.

Reasons that Leicester won’t:

Jamie Vardy hasn’t been so potent recently.
A tendency to slip up against weaker teams.
Mounting expectations crossed with inexperience at this level.
A small squad susceptible to injuries.
We never get to have nice things.

Meanwhile, the others:

Tottenham Hotspur

Five points behind

Drew 1-1 (A) and lost 1-0 (H) vs LCFC (but knocked them out of the FA Cup)

Also competing in the Europa League

Aston Villa (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Liverpool (A)
Manchester United (H)
Stoke City (A)
West Bromwich Albion (H)
Chelsea (A)
Southampton (H)
Newcastle United (A)

Arsenal

Eight points behind

Won 5-2 (A) and 2-1 (H) vs LCFC

Also competing in the Champions League and FA Cup (for now)

West Bromwich Albion (H)
Everton (A)
Watford (H)
West Ham United (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Sunderland (A)
Norwich City (H)
Manchester City (A)
Aston Villa (H)

Manchester City

Ten points behind (with a game in hand)

Drew 0-0 (A) and lost 3-1 (H) to LCFC

Also competing in the Champions League

Newcastle United (A) – PP
Norwich City (A)
Manchester United (H)
Bournemouth (A)
West Bromwich Albion (H)
Chelsea (A)
Stoke City (H)
Southampton (A)
Arsenal (H)
Swansea City (A)

S’pose we should answer the question in the title: obviously no, it isn’t theirs to lose. They could slip up their next few games and it’d be a shame but not a shock. There’s a reason that no unfancied team has won the Premier League since probably Blackburn in 1995 – and that team had Alan Shearer, hardly a team expected to be relegated like the Foxes were. If they’d avoided defeat to Arsenal and beaten West Brom then maybe we could start engraving the trophy now, however in real life they’re not exactly running away with it. Seven points from their last four games is a number that Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham and Stoke can all beat. The kicker there: None of them are challenging for the title. Leicester have dropped a few points but those around them are dropping more and that’s what’s keeping this race so wide open. In another season Manchester City would have 65-70 points and be strolling towards another set of winners medals. Instead the candidates are apparently all happy to hand off the impetus to the next lot. The way things lie any one of these four teams could go on a six game winning streak and storm to the top – only nothing that we’ve seen from any of them suggests that that’s worth betting on, and so Leicester City remain favourites.

We can only pray that it continues.