Scouting the All Whites Confederations Cup Opponents: Mexico
The Confederations Cup marks a rare opportunity to play against the world’s best as a reward for having beaten Papua New Guinea on penalties. The draw was kind to New Zealand too, getting both a potentially vulnerable Russian team and also the experience of coming up against Cristiano Ronaldo, an all-time legend. The two ends of the competition vs experience scale covered there - and in between we have a game against Mexico.
That’s CONCACAF champions Mexico, for your information. Although it’s the same Mexico that New Zealand has played against four times in the last decade and as recently as last October. A little unexciting there, perhaps. Also a little dangerous… potentially even the toughest match the All Whites will face in Russia.
On that day in October 2016 it was goals to Gio dos Santos (from the penalty spot) and Marco Fabian that decided it, despite Marco Rojas equalising it soon after the break. That was a Mexican team without most of their European stars so we can expect a tougher test this time after a surprisingly competitive outing there. New Zealand’s team will look a bit different too, however. No Winston Reid which is a stinker but Bill Tuiloma and Ryan Thomas will surely come in, plus then-debutant right back Liam Graham didn’t crack this latest squad. For the record, here are the lineups from that match:
NZ: Marinovic // Wynne, Boxall, Reid, Tzimopoulos, Graham // Lewis, McGlinchey, Rojas // Barbarouses, Wood (5-3-2)
Subs: Patterson, Colvey, Dyer, Ridenton, Durante, Fallon
MEX: Jose Corona // Marin, Ayala, Silva // Gallardo, Molina, Lozano // Fabian, Duenas // Peralta, G. dos Santos (3-5-2)
Subs: Brizuela, Pulido, Pineda
A month after that game, Mexico played America in Ohio in the first game of the final World Cup qualifying stage for North and Central America. Rafa Marquez scored a late clincher in a 2-1 victory and through four games they sit top of the table, with the three highest placed teams of six automatically going through to Russia 2018. Still six more games to play but they’re in a great place, conceding only once so far.
What’s tricky for Mexico is that while New Zealand are already in camp in Europe and will have a couple good weeks of it under their belt before the Confeds Cup, Mexico have two World Cup qualifiers to play between now and then. They’ll have their squad in training but they’ll be camped in Mexico City with games against Honduras and USA – the second one taking place exactly a week before their game against Portugal in Russia. They’ve just spent time in Colorado to stay used to the altitude. That’s not a lot of acclimatisation for the Russian freeze to be had.
Plus they just got through a couple of international friendlies - both, like the game against New Zealand last year, taking place in America. First off they played Croatia in Los Angeles and that one didn’t go too well. It wasn’t even a top strength Croatia team, with no sign of Luka Modric, Ivan Perisic, Mario Mandzukic, etc. yet goals to Duje Cop and Fran Tudor had Croatia up 2-0 at half-time… whereupon Mexico made three HT subs. They also had a goalkeeping coach sent off and their manager, Juan Carlos Osorio, got stuck into the refs on a few occasions and he’s usually a mild mannered fellow, that man.
Javier Hernandez scored a late one to make it 2-1 and also to make himself Mexico’s all-time top scorer with 47 international goals, but that was it as far as things to celebrate. Sounds like general sloppiness that cost them, a lack of fluency in the attacking third and all that. It’ll probably take a similar off-day for New Zealand to do them in Russia but at least they’ve shown those days aren’t completely impossible.
And then a hit up against Ireland where 42000 folks saw the Mexicans coast to a 3-1 win in New Jersey. Much better performance here. Both teams were short on a few of their best players, the Irish leaving behind most of their Premier League talent in order to blood some fringe talent and Martin O’Neill also chucked them out in an unfamiliar formation (only four of the starting XI for Ireland had played 10+ internationals). That’s the perspective there but Mexico also rested a few blokes and were still able to score goals like this:
Note to Uncle Tony: Guard the counter attack at all costs.
Goal there scored by Corono, who plays for Porto, and his combination with Carlos Vela of Real Sociedad was a danger all night. Mexico eased off the gas for the last half hour after going three up which allowed Ireland to salvage a little something in the end. No dramas there, this was a technically supreme and tactically fluid Mexican side. Jorge "Burrito" Hernandez was named man of the match on his debut.
Interestingly 38 year old Rafa Marquez played the last 22 minutes off the bench, the captain returning for the first time in a few months after having surgery. He’s a Mexican legend that guy and you’d never guess his age based on how the dude defends… although match fitness is bound to be an issue. Similarly for Nestor Araujo, who fractured a finger in the Croatia game. His prowess at the back is pretty crucial for Mexico as he gives them the ability to switch between two CBs and three CBs, according to his coach. He’s not expected to be able to train until after the World Cup qualifiers which could (but probably won’t) put his Confeds Cup place in jeopardy.
Having said that, Mexico played a 4-3-3 against both Croatia and Ireland which suggests that’s how they’re gonna go into the WCQs if not the Confeds Cup as well. With New Zealand predictably playing a 3-5-2 (we can almost guarantee that at this stage) then that could mean a midfield overload in Mexico’s favour, which is scary. If the wingbacks are on their game then the Mexican front trio can be contained so long as they can be slowed down but it’ll be tough to commit players forward, especially against a team that can play at pace on the break. Might need to bank on Chris Wood bringing the physicality there.
Juan Carlos Osorio has taken charge of 22 games for Mexico and has a stunning record of 17 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. This is a seriously good team and he’s gotten a lot of that success while juggling his European based players too. Of them there are several, and the clues suggest that their Confeds Cup squad will be filled with them.
Guillermo Ochoa was a straggly-haired goalkeeping hero at the last World Cup, he plays for Granada in Spain. Hector Moreno is a wonderful defender for PSV Eindhoven while Miguel Layun does his thing for Porto and Diego Reyes for Espanyol. Carlos Salcedo plays at the back for Fiorentina. In the midfield there’s Jonathan dos Santos (Villarreal), Marco Fabian (Eintracht Frankfurt), Andres Guardado (PSV) and the often superb Hector Herrera (Porto) – who had a bit of a stinker against Croatia and has been copping some blame lately for his form. Obviously Javier Hernández, Carlos Vela, Raul Jimenez and Hirving Lozano are forwards to fear as well.
Between friendlies, World Cup Qualifiers, Gold Cup matches and the Confederations Cup, Mexico could be playing close to 20-odd games this international season. As soon as the Confederations Cup finishes they’re back to America for friendlies against Ghana and Paraguay (presumably depending on whether they make the semis of the Confeds or not) before the Gold Cup begins in early July. With that many games there’s bound to be some prioritising going on and that could be a window for New Zealand to challenge. Gotta be optimistic here or else what’s the point, right?
We should get a good look at what to expect from Osorio’s lot, how hard they’re targeting what’s probably the third most important competition of this Mexican summer for them, when they take on Portugal in their first match. If they can bust down Portugal’s defence then we’re in big trouble. If not... then you never know.
Mexico’s Pre-Confeds Cup Matches:
- Mexico 1-2 Croatia (FR), 27 May
- Mexico 3-1 Ireland (FR), 1 June
- Mexico vs Honduras (WCQ), 8 June
- Mexico vs USA (WCQ), 11 June
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