The Wildcard’s Premier League Predictions - Week 38
Last Week: 4/14
Overall: 160/370
Arsenal vs Aston Villa
All games are 2.00am, Monday (NZT)
This is the end, beautiful friend, the end. The final games of the 2015-16 Premier League season and dammit the next one is gonna have to be something special to top what we’ve seen over the last nine months. Leicester City’s indescribable rise, record seasons for Spurs and West Ham, the fall of Chelsea, struggles in Manchester, Big Sam orchestrates another relegation escape, Newcastle do not, Vardy, Alli, Mahrez, Rashford, Jurgen Klopp, Stoke-alona, all these things and more. We’re even about to lose Aston Villa to the Championship after they’d been ever-present in the Premier League era ‘til now. About the only thing that went as planned was Arsenal finishing in the top four without managing a sustained title challenge and losing in the Champions League knockouts. Wenger out, I say!*
*Not really, I get that Gunners fans are infuriated by their decade-plus of stasis but believe me (as a Man Utd fan), the stasis is a lot better than the drop off that’ll come post-Arsene.
Man, I really whiffed on last week’s picks. I got all four midweeks wrong pretty much by betting on the relegation race lasting another few days and Man United being able to finally string a run of wins together without tripping over their own feet. I really should know better by now.
One final bow in the top flight for the Villans, might we finally see some heart, some passion, some desperation? Nope, not a chance. More likely we’ll the last dying breath of a sick dog. Whimpering to the finish line. In hindsight, this had been coming for a couple years, those perennial mid-table teams don’t have nearly as much buffer room as they think they do and when you somehow sustain a late surge into safety and an FA Cup final mostly on the back of Christian Benteke’s goals and a pretty solid midfield with Tom Cleverley, Fabian Delph and Ashley Westwood (with a little Jack Grealish on the side) only to lose three of them in the transfer market and barely play another not to mention the grave error in judgement of hiring Tim Sherwood full-time, you can’t have too many complaints. Promoted teams are constantly underrated and the complacent regulars shouldn’t be taking things for granted like that. Early pick for next season’s dumb team: I’m worried about my lads at Watford.
This actually was that FA Cup final a year ago. Sing one for me, Bobby:
Wildcard’s Pick: Gunners 2-0
Manchester United vs Bournemouth
Oh Louis. Can’t say I wasn’t more than a little worried about that West Ham game but I never for the life of me thought the difference might have been my arch nemesis Marouane Fellaini. Fact is they needed him there. The Hammers are too physical and Fellaini was one of the few players that could have matched that. Dimitri Payet’s set piece delivery especially, they fair battered United and while Chris Smalling was able to disrupt Andy Carroll, nobody else was winning their battles. So poor, even if they did almost get away with it thanks to the constantly brilliant Anthony Martial. That bloke knows no limitations, just wait ‘til he’s dominating at the Euros. Man, France’s team is unreal. They’re the early favourites, no doubt about it.
United can still come fourth though. They can also still miss Europe entirely but even if they lose here that’ll be in their hands with a EL group stage place there for the FA Cup winners and frankly if they don’t win that then LVG will have to go regardless of my reservations (I know Ed Woodward holds this column in high regard, hi Ed). Those reservations aren’t so much about Van Gaal as they are about any replacements – I think the status quo is close enough to being good to where the risk of a new voice isn’t really worth it. They have constantly evolved through the season, Man Utd isn’t the 0-0 draw monger of mid-season and that man Martial’s emergence has a lot to do with that. Based on that evidence you could say they’re a couple of players away from Van Gaal’s ideas being rewarding and while that still isn’t gonna lead into particularly exciting footy, he’s leaving after next season anyway and the smoother the hand off the better. Win this and City lose to Swansea and fourth is still there. If City get a single point then no deal. Well, they may as well go for it, a win against Bournemouth at Old Trafford is going to be simpler than a City win in Wales.
If Michael Carrick doesn’t get an extension then somebody’s lost their mind in that team. There are those that would argue that a certain somebody already has but whatever. Regardless you can expect a central mid coming in sooner or later.
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-0 United sounds appropriate
Southampton vs Crystal Palace
So one of the things I’ve noticed on Mark Lawrenson’s (stupid) Premier League picks is the table at the bottom of the thing showing how the League would stand if all of his calls had come true. Naturally they’re awful, with West Ham lingering in seventeenth just a point off relegation. And last week he talked about how impressive they’d been, what a joke. Other notables include Newcastle (11) ahead of Leicester (12) and West Brom (7!!!???) ahead of Man United (8). Bloody Liverpool muppet, he’s got the Reds in the Champions League places ahead of Spurs (5) and somehow he didn’t get the memo on Chelsea because they’re in third. City winning it followed by Arsenal, that’s all good – although only picking one loss in 38 games for each is a little odd.
But, folks, the Wildcard is one to put the money in the ol’ mouth hole, and so I’ve compiled all of my own predictions into a table as well. Feast your eyes upon the Premier League if I had complete control over all results.
Now, the obvious one is Manchester United at the top. I don’t hide my own bias, several of those draw were correct picks, but perhaps disregard them and give City the title. I’m pleased that Spurs got up to third, avoiding St Totteringham’s Day even in my predictions, though I embarrassingly left a few too many on the table for Palace and Newcastle as the season went on. Leicester were a team I held out on for too long but I saw the light as it all progressed. Since most of this is based on probability, seeing the favourites at the top is no shocker but check out the relegation zone and I had two of three right there. Sunderland finish in the same position they will on the real table as well. Stoke should have been more convincing, West Ham took a while to sell me as well – but I’m a lot better than that bludger Lawrenson, hey? Clearly I overrated Everton somewhat.
Bloody loving the finish that Southampton are on. With Palace distracted by next week’s FA Cup final I can see this one being a walkover, probably with more than a couple rested players. Southampton can still get in Europe though it’ll depend on how Man United and Liverpool go in their respective finals. Probably, but a win here does them a world of good.
Wildcard’s Pick: 3-0 Saints
Chelsea vs Leicester City
An Ode to John Terry
Terry, Terry, so contrary
Clumsy challenge, kinda scary
Bleeding blue and seeing red
No new contract, era dead
Lacking pace but full of heart
Full kit wanker at the park
Rent the Bridge and have a party
Saves him marking Jamie Vardy
Oh by the way I wrote this big thing about Leicester City’s journey to the top, from their days in the lower divisions to the scrape of last season and how a long dead monarch became the unofficial mascot of it all. Read it in all its glory right… here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Foxes 3-1
Everton vs Norwich City
This is going to be one sombre game. For Norwich it’s their last game in the Premier League, their big win over Watford coming too late to matter. They just didn’t have the quality, no biggie. Some teams struggle with the step up and it is always prudent not to freak out with that and make a bunch of wild signings. Clearly they’re onto something good in already having gotten to this level. Keep the core, blood some kids, use those parachute payments well. And for the love of God, listen to the fans and keep Alex Neil. Sir Alex as the fans were chanting the other day.
But Everton will be the real story because the word was just a few days before it that only compensation terms that were keeping Roberto Martinez in a job. The bird has flown, man. I hate seeing good managers sacked but I have to admit that Everton aren’t getting to the next level with Bobby there. That would have been the case even if they’d been playing sorta well but with only one win in ten and having just gotten pumped by Sunderland those concerns bubble right to the surface.
Aaaaand he’s gone.
I mean, I hate the way that managers are treated as so disposable. There is one of them compared to at least 20 players in every squad, they should be the real commodities. If you hire a guy as manager that means you ought to be giving them the full reigns to the club. Look at Newcastle. Rafa Benitez is a bloody good manager and he couldn’t save them. Allardyce and Hughton were flicked very unfairly. Pardew slightly more fairly. McLaren may or may not be a great manager, certainly he’s had his share of disasters but when you look at the bigger picture you have to think that maybe the procession of bosses aren’t the issue. Maybe the issue is that the managers aren’t being supported like they should, like they deserve to be as the men in charge of the club’s performance.
Martinez can say he’s had that opportunity. There’s a feeling at the end of a poor season that the best way to start fresh is to get a new boss, like a down season means that they’re headed in that one irrevocable direction. That ain’t the case. Everybody has bad seasons, players have them all the time and it doesn’t mean they won’t learn from them and come back stronger. To be fair to Everton, they could have justified sacking Bobby last season and did not. He had a chance. This is harsh but I’d say that in hindsight it does look like, as was the case with his predecessor David Moyes at Man Utd, Roberto Martinez was a little out of his depth at Everton and the club has too much talent to fall into cup specialist realms.
My guess is that they end up with Frank de Boer. His compatriot Ronald Koeman would appear the favourite but why would he leave Sunderland, a club in a clearly better situation? Not to start from scratch at Everton, can’t see the point in that. De Boer will be a decent appointment by the looks of it, though we won’t know until well into next season, will we?
Wildcard’s Pick: 1-1
Watford vs Sunderland
Another manager with no job. Quique Sanchez Flores released by Watford despite achieving his main objective. This one I have less time for, despite a terrible back half of the season. Here’s hoping Flores can get another job in England nice and quick because I’m not ready to go without seeing that immaculate fashion sense on the sideline anymore – not in an era of Pulis baseball caps and Wenger long-jackets.
It seems that the plan might have been for QSF to come in for a season and steady them. Build the defensive structures and then give way to a more creative coach who could take them to the next level. I could understand that. If you look at Watford they could certainly use a whole lot more on attack because that drop in form coincided with Odion Ighalo’s struggles and Troy Deeney wasn’t covering that all by himself. Flores doesn’t pick wingers, he basically uses a four-man central midfield.
Flores is an accomplished journalist, if you didn’t know. He’s welcome to write the odd thing for the Nichey if anyone knows how to get in touch with him.
Ah, but now to a manager who is more than happy with his life right now. Sam Allardyce: Still yet to be relegated. Not once. Not ever. Harry Redknapp can forget about his reputation, Big Sam is the real relegation king. Think about Sunderland after the first third of the season, there was no saving them. Magnificent stuff.
You also have to give huge credit to the club for some stunning transfers. Lamine Kone and Wahbi Khazri each scored crucial goals in the last couple games – Khazri’s was up there with anything seen all year – and each arrived in January. They didn’t just appoint Big Sam to ease the embarrassment (*cough* Remi Garde *cough*), they genuinely backed him to save them and they gave him all the backing he needed… and he gave them their Premier League status in return. They’ve done it with a week to spare and I reckon they’ll celebrate with a few more points yet.
Wildcard’s Pick: 2-1 Sunderland
Swansea City vs Manchester City
There is still so much riding on this game, it’s gonna be a weird weekend with some games complete exhibitions and others holding the future of all millions of dollars and the careers of players and managers. Lose this and they might end up in the Europa League yet, Pep Guardiola and all. Get a point and they’re safe thanks to West Ham’s heroics the other day.
Thing is, Swansea are hardly average. They might be playing the best footy of their season as Francesco Guidolin has done so well they’ve gone and given him that contract that it looked like he was never really in contention for. But after dismantling Liverpool and West Ham, how can you deny him? Guido absolutely deserves this – Swansea looked a complete mess a month ago.
My worry for City is that they don’t look all that bothered. They should have been desperate against Arsenal and yet that game, for all that was at stake, was a mess. One of the more exciting games in a while but mostly because neither team seemed capable of even mediocre defending. Insane stuff from the two title favourites of the early stages. I guess the disappointment of Champions League defeat cut hard and while they still need to be playing for next season… these players know that there are going to be big changes coming and more than a few of them won’t be back. Yaya Toure is definitely in for his final game in a City shirt. I’m still picking them but I can’t exactly lock this one in. Given the handouts that both Manchester clubs have been giving recently it’d only make sense for City to drop points and then United respond at the same time to shoot themselves in the foot and waste another gift of an opportunity. Or, hey, maybe Sergio Aguero will score an injury time goal to secure fourth place and deny the Red Devils. Wouldn’t be the first time now would it?
Wildcard’s Pick: 0-2 City
Newcastle United vs Tottenham Hotspur
I sort of already ripped Newcastle before so I’ll spare them the embarrassment again. All I’ll say is that if Rafa Benitez stays in the Championship they’ll be straight back up and I’ll seriously respect the man for that.
As for Spurs, here’s an interesting stat I’ve stumbled upon:
Spurs with Dembele starting:
15 Wins // 9 Draw // 0 Losses
Spurs without Dembele starting:
4 Wins // 4 Draws // 5 Losses
I remember him coming in and playing an absolute stunner against Liverpool in Jurgen Klopp’s first game and really it was once he became a regular in the first XI that Tottenham rose from their usual selves to title contenders. What they need to do now is buy the other Dembele from Fulham and then they won’t be able to go wrong.
Hey, here’s my team of the season if you missed it the other week. There are second and third teams in their as well just to share the glory out a bit further. Read it all here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Umm, 1-0 Spurs
Stoke City vs West Ham United
Winston Reid, what a man. He might be the world’s most boring footballer off the field but on it he is all business and while this was his first goal of the season, he’s never shy of an attacking header. Never seen so much emotion from him as this, either.
Jeez, United got slain from set pieces. Anyway, it was a beautiful farewell to Upton Park even if the rainy ceremony afterwards bordered on saccharine madness. It would have been unbearable by the time the musical acts began were it not for the great redeeming factor of the night… Teddy Sheringham’s hat.
Been watching a bit too much Peaky Blinders there, son. (It’s a great show, btw).
Wildcard’s Pick: 3-2 to the Hammers… again
West Bromwich Albion vs Liverpool
Well. I guess this is it then. The final prediction of the season and… WBA vs Liverpool? Yuck.
Look, cheers for the support and the page views, I'll be back with more PL Picks next season and in the meantime there'll be no shortage of footy and other quality reads on the Nichey Niche for ya.
Wildcard’s Pick: Phwoar, call it 1-1