The Wildcard’s Guide to the NFL - Week 14
Last Week: 12-4
Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)
That trip to the witchdoctor really paid off in the end, with a 75% success rate last week in my picks, and a tied personal best. Three dollars, a goat’s tongue and a vial of werewolf blood (man was THAT hard to find!) were well spent. Unfortunately when I went back to see the guy this week, the clearing in the forest was completely abandoned, and the grass had mysteriously grown back as if nobody had set foot there in years. Typical bloody mystics with their trippy mind games. So I’m on my own now.
First cab off the ranks is a rusty old death trap. Paint’s flaking, windows cracked, WOF’s expired and it’s driven by Gil from The Simpsons (Yeah, that gag coulda gone in a much darker pop cultural direction given recent circumstances. I’m proud of my restraint.). These are probably the two worst teams in the NFL this season. In fact it may as well be a playoff for the first overall pick, although if Houston wins, we could have a logjam of teams on 3 wins. These guys just aren’t committed enough to their tanking.
Wildcard’s Pick: Houston by 1
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)
The Bengals look good for the playoffs, but it’s not much fun to watch. Dalton does enough, AJ Green is admittedly a beast, and their defence is brutal, but nobody watches football to see incomplete passes and 2 yard rushes. I wonder if Dalton is a guy capable of winning a title, or if he’ll be another one of those guys who can’t make the final leap. He’s better than Schaub, probably worse than Ryan. The Colts meanwhile, and especially Andy Luck, haven’t been the same since Reggie Wayne got injured. They’re all over the place these days. Playoff seeding is on the line here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Better ‘Luck’ next time, Indy (Ba-dum pish!) - Bengals by 13
Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)
Last chance saloon for the lads at Lambeau. The only reason they’re still in the playoff race is that Detroit and Chicago keep blowing winnables, but if GB are to stay in that hunt, they almost certainly need to win out. Starting here (ed: well, obviously…). Atlanta managed a win last week thanks to a surprisingly effective if not dominant run game, and some hurl ‘n’ hope from Matt Ryan. No Rodgers, so Matty Flynn gets another chance to get his reputation back to the mean. First he was wildly overrated, and now everyone thinks he’s trash. The last thing he wants to do here is turn it into a shootout. But play it safe and secure and this should be able to do it.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 3
Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)
Hey guess who’s last in the league for completion percent among qualified players? You shouldn’t need to phone a friend. Answer: Bran-diddly Weeden. 52.8%. Tom Brady for the record, has fixed his stats somewhat with a string of great performances, and his comp is over 60% now. In fact Brady’s resurgence (Last 4 games: 70.12% comp, 1443 yds, 10 TDs 2 INT) has overshadowed the many weaknesses in the Pats squad, like their receiving corps and their average defence (especially after injuries), but then I guess you don’t need much else to compete than a healthy, confident Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on the sidelines calling the shots. Browns got nuthin’.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10
Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7)
…
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 3
Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)
The first of two crucial NFC East vs NFC North battles. Neither team can really afford to cede any ground in the playoff race. Matt Stafford’s playing well, Calvin Johnson is a known, unstoppable, commodity, they have a very solid defence and Reggie Bush is good value at RB. We know what to expect from the Lions, we just never know if it’ll get them over the line. On the other hand, I have absolutely no idea about the Eagles. Is Nick Foles actually a top 20 QB? A top 10? Top 5? His stats are near impeccable but maybe this is just a fluke run. Only 19 touchdown passes (with 0 interceptions)? Eh, I’m not convinced. Let’s see how he goes with 139 kgs of Ndamukong Suh in his face. The Eagles can move the ball at will, but the Lions love a shootout.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 3
Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)
Even now that they’re struggling, I still can’t seem to sympathise with the Steelers. I don’t know why this is. Maybe it’s coz I’m a Cowboys fan. Maybe it’s because Big Ben, for all his talents, is kinda an asshole. Maybe it’s because they don’t play the same clinically and technically perfect style of Peyton or Brady, or the high energy and exciting style of the younger generation. I feel bad about it sometimes, since they’ve never done anything to me. The Cowboys vs Steelers rivalry goes way back before my time. But then I see some douchebag strolling down the street in a Steelers jacket and I get angry.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 3
Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9)
Ahoy, me hearties. T' buccaneers be playin' good football, they ain’t walking the plank yet. T’ain't beatin’ no contenders, but thar should be good for another win (-unintelligible seaworthy grunt-). T’ Bills arrr nothin’ but scurvy infested land lubbers. Cap’n Vincent Jackson and Revis Island shall wreak and plunder. Arrrgh! Three pints o’ lager and a bottle o’ rum! Yo-ho-ho!
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccaneers by 4
Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Professional Football Team (3-9)
It’s time for Kansas City to end their three game loss streak. Over the course of the past month, the previously 9-0 Chiefs have had their season turn on its head. They still look like comfortable playoff hopes, but how long can they last with their defence now suddenly leaking points? They never looked completely in motion with the ball in their hands anyway. If this meltdown has proved anything it’s just how fast things can change in this league. Fortunes change on the wind. With four games left, they can easily take this thing the full 360. It starts with a win in DC Monday morning.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10
Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
“Sing to me of the man, Muse, the man of twists and turns
driven time and again off course, once he had plundered
the hallowed heights of Superbowl XLVII”
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 6
Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)
Lock-it-in, guaranteed-win of the week. If the Denver Broncos can’t win this game, then you might wanna cash in your life insurance and finish watching Breaking Bad because you won’t get another chance what with the impending apocalypse that an upset here would incite. Peyton Manning is on course still to break all sorts of season records with four games yet to play, most notably:
Passing TDs – Currently 41, record is 50 (Brady, 2007)
Passing Yards – Manning 4125, record 5476 (Brees, 2011)
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncs by 17
St Louis Rams (5-7) at Arizona Cardinals (7-5)
First of all I think the Cardinals win this one comfortably enough. They’ve a better QB, a better defence and a better (pair of) running back(s). St Looey gets ‘em on special teams, mind. But more interestingly, St Louis have Washington’s first round pick next year, which they picked up in the RGIII trade down. The Washington PFT is currently 3-9. The Rams don’t need a QB, but a top running back would be nice.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cards by 7
New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)
Oh man, how do you work this one out? Each team has two different, completely contrasting, levels of performance. Put simply: really good or really bad. Giving us four possible outcomes. If one plays well and the other bad, then we split. Both really well, then I’d have to take the Chargers, though NYG are never beaten when you think they are. Both really bad? Well then you’ve got a game with 10 interceptions and 40 points scored on defence and special teams. Either way this could be a wild ‘un.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 7
Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
The Niners can do their fellow contenders a big favour by beating Seattle here, and giving others a chance to supplant their expected home-field advantage, while Seahawks can all but secure it with a win. They’re playing away from the rattle and prattle in Seattle, so that’s the first step to a possible 49ers win. Two heavyweight defences will give each other what we expect, but how can Colin Kaepernick outduel Russell Wilson? He needs to show some command in the pocket, he needs to throw the ball downfield with accuracy and he needs to be alert and mobile. All things that Rusty himself excels at. Eventually we’ll see Andrew Luck become the champion on the 2012 draft class, but for now, RC Wilson is the undisputed front runner.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ahh, this is a tough one… let’s say Seattle by 3
Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3)
Oohwee, another doozy. Carolina is on the hottest win streak in the league at the moment, but the Saints just don’t lose back to back. Except for last year, when they sucked, but that was an anomaly. At this stage, I don’t think I’ll ever question a decision made by Saints coach Sean Payton. If he told me that rubbing salt in my eyes would help me with insomnia, I’d trust him. If he said setting fire to cop cars was the best way to study for exams, I’d take him at his word. I’m trying to think who should play him if they made a film of this Saints team. The role of Drew Brees is an obvious one: Tom Cruise. He’s a big star, yet a short man. A little old, but hey, that’s what CGI’s for.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 6
Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)
People are still writing off the Cowboys. They’re better than they seem, defence aside. And even then, Sean Lee is coming back for this game. He’s not a guy that gets as much credit as he deserves because he doesn’t get hyped up, and he doesn’t make sacks. But Lee is a top 5 inside linebacker, and one of the best tacklers in the business. Chicago’s defence is crap, man. Living on reputation earned in the Urlacher days. You think they can hold off Tony Romo? Heeeell no. McCown/Cutler’s gotta throw 400 yards to win this game. Actually, that could happen… NO. Think positive thoughts, dude!
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 6
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. His hopes for a professional career were derailed early on when he was found guilty of match fixing after dropping seventeen catches in a single high school game. His ensuing life ban was eventually rescinded at trial when scouting video emerged that proved that he was actually just really, really bad at football. Like, infamously bad. Hence the anonymous alias.