AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Monday 9am (NZT)

Only three games remain in the NFL season, ladies and gentlemen (obviously excluding the overhyped farce that is the pro-bowl), and I’m not sure it’s possible to even comprehend a better pair of games than what we’ll be served up on Monday (NZT). It begins here with what may well prove be the last truly meaningful meeting between the two greatest quarterbacks of the generation, perhaps ever. Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning. One of these two legendary players will be playing in the Superbowl. Peyton clearly has the most to lose, since he’s at home, and his playoff record isn’t quite so glittery as his regular season one, while Brady’s Patriots have overcome so much, mostly because of injuries, just to reach this stage. The Pats should get the benefit if they fall short. After the season they’ve had, this game will be billed as the Broncos’ to lose.

It’s never that simple though. Case and point, the last time that these two met: Week 12 in New England, the Broncs sprint out of the blocks for a 24-0 lead in the second quarter, only for Tommy Terrific to lead the Patriots back to an incredible 34-31 win, and a timely reminder that with Brady in the huddle, and Bill Belichick holding the clipboard, this team is never out of any game. The Broncs have been crushing scoring records for fun, but haven’t been tested quite so often and if they fall behind by a bit early on, it’ll be interesting to see how it goes. They know how to win from in front, and they’ll hold off anyone in a shootout, but playing catchup? Hmmm…

At this stage in an athlete’s career, Brady is 36 and Manning is 37, every playoff run threatens to be the last one. As it stands, Brady has 3 Superbowl wins out of 5 attempts, and Peyton 1 and 1 (which is the same as Brett Favre). Only Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have 4 wins, and John Elway is the only man to have played in 5 of the big shows. Brady and Manning are already in the conversation with those names, but another win for either of them and said conversation gets a little more heated.

The thing about having two such brilliant leaders, and also two very much known commodities, is that this game will probably be decided on other accounts. Who runs the ball better? Denver undoubtedly, but it was NE’s LeGarrette Blount who carved up the Colts on the ground last week. Similarly, the Broncos have the edge on defence, especially with the injuries that the Pats have had (story of their season), but Tom Brady picked them apart once already. You’re kidding yourself if you think that this game will be decided before the final drive of the game. It has the makings of an all time classic, and hell yes I’m gonna hold it to those standards! Even if just for the historical implications. For the record, Brady and Manning have met three times before in the playoffs, and each time the winner has gone on to win the Superbowl. So, no pressure lads. (As if the two greatest players of the last 20 years need, me to tell them about pressure!)

Wildcard’s Pick: I’mma play it safe. Broncos by 6

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Monday 12.30am

And on the other hand, we have this arm wrestle of a clash. Probably the best two team rivalry in the NFL at this moment. Two young but talented QBs, two brutal running backs and arguably the best two defences going around. Not the prettiest teams to watch, but definitely two of the best. It comes at a pretty defining time too for a pair of highly regarded quarterbacks. Russell Wilson has been in control all season but hasn’t seemed able to step it up on the big stage yet, relying instead on his defence for plays. Maybe that’s a case of nobody being open for the pass, but if so then it’s only gonna be harder against the 49ers. I actually think that on the basis of the performances, the Saints should really have beaten the Hawks last week, but a few missed opportunities is all it takes to completely derail an entire seasons work at this stage. Hey, it’s the playoffs. These are the moments that they play for, and the moments that we mere mortals watch for. There’s a reason why Superbowl wins are the most highly regarded achievement in the game: It’s because they’re so damn hard to do! The greatest measure of an athlete is not how much they beat the poor teams by, but how they perform against the best and when under the most pressure. Russell Wilson, for all his strengths, has yet to show this.

Then there’s Kap. Colin Kaepernick. He showed exactly that on the way to the grand stage last year, and although he fell short, he showed that no occasion is too big for him. But his regular season play was much more inconsistent in 2013. He struggled to throw well out of the pocket, and his read-action play seemed to disappear. There are two theories for this:

The Sophomore Slump
His coach was protecting him from the kind of injuries that ruined RGIII’s year, and we’ll see that dynamism once more these playoffs

Kap definitely has more talent around him to utilise. If Seattle has one glaring weakness it’s their receiving corps (especially minus the enigmatic but usually injured Percy Harvin). Seahawks CB Richard Sherman can talk the talk all right, but he’ll need to walk the walk too or it could be big trouble. But if the tattooed Niner QB can play at the elite level that he fleetingly showed himself capable of in 2013, then the 49ers emerge as the most complete team in the NFL. Everything else is set in place. Plus they have the experience of this occasion from last year. Seattle don’t, but do look primed for perhaps the greatest era in the franchise’s history. They’ve beaten SF twice already this season, and comfortably too, plus they have the luxury of home field advantage here too.

Seattle is the toughest place in American football to play. 12th man, and all that. But you get the feeling that maybe Seattle are relying a little too much on this advantage. Since losing at home to the Panthers late on in 2013, they haven’t quite had the same aura about them. But the Niners will at least give them the kind of game that they want. This game won’t end up as a shootout, neither coach is dumb enough to get into that territory – it’s too far from their respective strengths. No, this one will be a suffocating battle of attrition. Who’ll crack first? A few big plays will be the deciding factors. Interceptions, big runs, long completions. Which weapons, which primal beasts of athleticism and power, will make it count and book a trip to New York? Will Marshawyn Lynch go Beast Mode? Can Frank Gore outdo him? Percy Harvin (ed. Nope, not him, he's injured)? Vernon Davis? Which quarterback will unlock the door to the Superbowl and set the tone for a dazzling career to follow?

Wildcard’s Pick: It’s so hard to pick. San Fran are better on paper, but how much does playing in Seattle cost them? The pressure is all on Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson to be the difference. My money’s on the Kapman. 49ers by 3