Giancarlo's Bank

Money, Money, MONEY! You know who has lots of money? This guy.

Giancarlo Stanton is about to be making massive bank. He’s gonna need a truck to drag all those cheques to the bank. They might as well just let him print his own bills. That’s because Mr Stanton is about to sign the biggest contract in American sports. US$325m over 13 years…

There’s definitely a prevailing notion here that Three Hundred and Twenty Five MILLION dollars is too much cash for one man. Even if he lives in Miami. How many mansions does he need? How many cars, how much cocaine, how many ex-wives?

The Man

First up, let’s establish something. This man can HIT!

And HIT…

… A LONG WAY!

He’s coming off of the best season yet in his career, finishing as a runner up to Clayton Kershaw in the National League MVP race (and Kershaw’s numbers were historical). An All Star, a Silver Slugger. He was second in Offensive Wins Above Replacement in the NL, second in On-Base %, first in slugging, first in Homers (37) and second in RBI (105).

He could be hitting at a better average, sure. In 2014 he went at .288, which was comfortably his best yet. But this is a guy that swings and swings hard – striking out 170 times. That’s pretty par for the course for a slugger, they tend to hit their peak later than this. The two best hitters of the last decade are Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. Both of them won back to back MVPs between the ages of 28-30. Stanton is 25.

And let’s not forget the situation that he’s doing this in. Stanton’s the only recognised bat in this team, which makes walking him to pitch to a weaker guy a very real option. Only Victor Martinez (of Detroit, who also got a big - but nowhere near this big – contract extension recently) was intentionally walked more often last season than Stanton. That’s a testament to Martinez’s season too, as he was mostly batting fourth as protection for two-time reigning MVP Miguel Cabrera. Stanton doesn’t have that luxury (although it’s something the team is trying to amend).

The Contract

Officially, the deal is for 13 years and $325 million. But technically that’s not quite the case. Stanton has an opt out clause after the 6th year that would make him a free agent. And given how backloaded the deal is, that’d leave more than two-thirds of the cash on the table.

He’s not even getting a raise next season! He’ll be making the same amount in 2015 as he did in 2014 - $6.5m. Over the first three seasons he’ll make around $30m. This is crucial for the Marlins as we’ll get to in a sec, but it’s also something that Stanton apparently asked for (or at least agreed to) in order for the team to have immediate flexibility to chase free agents and improve across the rest of the park. Like, a fourth bat, for example.

There’s a complete no-trade clause, naturally, and the backloaded deal gives him incentive to stick around. Interestingly in the 12 year ownership of the Marlins by Jeffrey Loria, this is the first time he’s ever given a complete no-trade clause in a contract. This is a guy, after all, that once traded Miguel Cabrera (and at the same stage in his career as Stanton is at now).

The Team

It’s undoubtedly a massive gamble for the Marlins. This isn’t a team that is known recently for spending or for success. They won the World Series in Loria’s second year in charge, but haven’t made the playoffs since. Stanton’s played his whole career with the Marlins – 6 years – and not only has he never played in a playoff game, but he’s never even played for a winning team.

For the past two seasons, the Marlins have had the second lowest opening day payroll in baseball. Only the completely bottomed out Houston Astros can beat them. They also have one of the worst home attendances in the league.

The biggest problem for the Marlins, however, is that they have a terrible TV deal. Most of the inflation we’re seeing in baseball is down to TV rights and in that Miami is being left behind. The likes of the LA Dodgers and Texas Rangers have recently signed massive new TV deals, and that’s seen them become a force in both the free agent and the trade field. The Yankees have always been at this level. Miami though, they have the worst television ratings of all the teams without local blackouts and they’re hardly ringing the cashier with what they’re getting for that either. By Loria’s own admission they probably have the worst television revenue in all baseball. The other problem is that the deal doesn’t expire until 2020.

The flipside of that, is that it expires in 2020. It expires. So at some stage in at most the next six years, they’ll have a new (probably lucrative) contract to sign. When does Stanton’s contract really kick in? Six years’ time.

Until then they have six seasons with an emerging MVP candidate to brighten their image and build a contending team. They’ve made a massive commitment, but they had to. If they didn’t then someone else would have. Letting this guy walk would be another dagger in the backs of a dwindling fanbase.

Instead they get an enormous boost. Giancarlo Stanton’s slid under the radar so far, he won’t any longer. Fans wanna see him play, players wanna play alongside him.

And if it doesn’t work, the competitor in Stanton might just walk and save them the hassle.

The Landscape

Man, but why do baseballers get all the money? In terms of total money, the 11 biggest contracts in American sports all go to baseball players. The next is Floyd Mayweather, then you have another 20 or so MLB players before Kobe Bryant steps in. As far as average yearly salaries, Money Mayweather destroys them all before another raft of pitchers and sluggers. Peyton Manning has earned a total of $229m in his career so far, Tom Brady a mere $154m. it’s probably fair to say that baseball doesn’t capture the imagination like football or basketball, yet that’s where the true money is. Why?

Numero uno, there’s no salary cap. In the NFL, there was a little hike in the cap this season, bringing it up to $133m. That’s a hard cap, so there’s no breaking it. It also has to cover the contracts of 55 active players plus whatever outstanding money comes into the equation (cut players, etc.). In the NBA you have much smaller squads, and a much smaller cap of $63m. This one’s a little more complicated because you can exceed it with various exceptions (like re-signing players) though there is a luxury tax which you have to pay if you exceed the cap by a certain amount. Basically the cap acts as a guide for how you sign new players. The Knicks in 2005-06 more than doubled the cap and had to pay around $37m to the League. Baseball does have a similar luxury tax meant to keep the big market teams from monopolising talent, but the Yankees and Dodgers are still able to do what they do.

The LA Dodgers set the benchmark for money these days. With new ownership (fronted in appearance by Magic Johnson), they snapped up all the decent but overpaid players they could and put them together in a monstrously expensive side meant for global domination. Then last off-season they gave Clayton Kershaw a massive deal. It’s turned them into a competing side though they’ve fallen short of lofty expectations the last couple seasons. The MLB playoffs don’t tend to follow logic so nobody can expect success. The Dodgers are showing that money sure helps get you there. Alternatively you have the Oakland Athletic’s Moneyball strategy. Either way can work. It depends on how sustainable your finances/scouting systems are.

The other thing that counts in baseball’s favour is that careers are very long and success can last deep into one’s thirties. Especially with steroids (*cough* Barry Bonds *cough*). Pitching is tough on the body, but hitting is sustainable. Therefore offering a long deal to a position player is comparatively less risky. And you offset the expensive last few years with dwindling production for the peak years that precede them.

What counts most in Stanton’s favour is that old chestnut of supply and demand. Consistent MVP candidates coming into their prime years are rare. If you don’t pay to keep them, then a rival absolutely will. With no limits on spending, it’s all a bit of a pissing contest. The player will take what he has the leverage to demand and with this kind of cash being thrown around, that may as well be the world.