Last Week: 6-7

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

We’re past the half way mark in the season now, if you still fancy yourself a contender it’s time to stand up.

Are the Browns contenders? Doubt it. The Bengals? Hmm. I’ve got some reservations myself but they’ll say they are. That tied game would look prettier as a win but at least it’s not a loss. It’s actually all that’s keeping them atop their division, a division in which every team has a winning record.

I’ve had a few sloppy TNF picks here and there though I’m, pretty confident about this one. Yep, pretty confident indeed…

Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 6

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

I’m not at all impressed with my 6-7 run last week, just in case you were wondering. But I do have several excuses that should keep me safe on the legal side of things should any irate gamblers come knocking at my door.

• I picked the Cowboys game assuming Tony Romo would play, had I known then that Weeden would start then I’d have taken Arizona 100 times out of 100.
• San Francisco literally fumbled at the goal-line trying to punch in the winner. Those things are unaccountable for.
• The New Orleans Saints… I watched them play earlier in the year and I ruled them out. All of a sudden being good again makes no logical sense given what I’d seen.
• Come on, who else though the Chargers would get done like THAT by the Dolphins? Not even Dan Marino.
• Picking the Ravens and Texans I instantly regretted, even while each of them held leads at times it never felt like they’d hold them and they didn’t. Whoops.

Both of these teams are 5-3 but one is clearly better than the other.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10

Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

The Ravens have some trust to build pack after getting edged by the Bengals and rolled by the Steelers. It’ll be tough to make the playoffs after dealing out tiebreakers like one of Bodie’s corner boys. Time to step it up, play the game.

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 13

Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

Not gonna lie, it still makes me uncomfortable to see NFL games played at Wembley Stadium, the home of the FA Cup. Though in this case it ain’t so bad. The English crowds seem to (understandably) gravitate towards the teams with history and tradition, so this is basically a home game away from home for Dallas, and my boys could use one of those. All three losses have come at JerryWorld so far.

This should be an easy victory as far as NFL wins go. I’m not even worried about jinxing things. Even if Weeden starts this should be a formality as long as the ball finds itself in the arms of DeMarco Murray 20+ times. Having said that, Tony Romo travelled, therefore Tony Romo plays. Even with a couple broken bones in his back. My one worry is that the only thing Jacksonville does well is pressuring the quarterback and if I have to grimace at any more heavy Romo hits I’m afraid the wind will change direction on me.

Good Lord, Brandon Weeden is a terrible player. I was hoping maybe he just sucked for the Browns coz, y’know, they’re the Browns, but no he’s just awful on his own. His passes would have a better chance of arriving safely and on time if he sent them by US Post. Hey Weedle, have you tried stamps dot com?

Weedle. Great nickname. I’m pretty proud of that one.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by just narrowly enough to get me scared

San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

The only thing I’ve learned to trust about the Saints is that you can always back them at home.

The only thing I’ve learned to trust about the 49ers is that you can never trust them.

You fumble the winning score and doom me to my first losing week of picks this season and you’d better believe I’m holding a grudge. Here’s how it’s done, Kap:

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7

Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2)

Yes. Yes. Yes.

What a great game. So good that I’m not gonna say anything else about it coz I genuinely have no idea which way to turn.

Wildcard’s Pick: Ah, let’s say Lions… NO, Dolphins. Yeah, Miami by 3

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)

Shout out to 60s Batman Villain Big Ben.

It turns out that between Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, this Steelers team has a ruthlessly good offence. Only the Colts have more total yards and nobody runs more plays, scores more points or gets more first downs than the Colts. Those guys go for the throat at every occasion.

Pittsburgh are up there though. Benny’s 12-TD/2-game flurry is really just highlighting something that’s been a trend all season: They make plays. They’re a lot like another famous franchise of the NFL actually, in the Dallas Cowboys. Great, slightly underrated QB who avoids sacks and throws deep, a furiously talented WR and an emerging star of a RB. DeMarco is pretty much established after his start while Le’Veon needs a little more exposure. No kidding, he’s something else.

I didn’t fancy them to start the season and I guess that worked out while they were 3-3. Since then they’ve beaten the Texans, Colts and Ravens all in a row averaging over 40 points a game. Next up a couple away games they oughta win against these Jets and the Titans before a bye. As good as they’ve been recently, I wouldn’t mind holding off on putting them in the ‘Trusted Weekly Picks’ category until after then.

A short word on the Jets: Trash.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 3 pipes and a can of spinach

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

Nah, not interested. Sorry.

Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 3

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)

The last time Peyton Manning lost back to back games was in September 2012. The last time Oakland won a game of any description (except pre-season) was November 17 last year.

Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 20 with a vengeance

New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

So, back to the ‘Trusted Weekly Picks’ theory. Some teams you just feel like you have the jump on. The Cowboys are one for me since I support them anyway. I see them every week and I basically know what to expect. Then you have a team like the Saints, who I will readily admit I have no idea about, or teams like the Browns who I think I understand then I keep picking them wrong. There are easy picks when it comes to the Jaguars, Buccaneers and Raiders who are gonna lose basically every week, while teams like the R**skins , Vikings, Jets, Titans and Falcons don’t have much of a chance against quality opposition.

The Giants are in the Untrusted Bad Team category. I’m not picking them against anyone better than them, yet I’m also watching with a little anxiety. They have upset potential, just like the Rams, Bills and Bears (who I’m classing as bad, sorry Ditka).

The Seahawks, meanwhile, sits in the Untrusted Good tier, along with the likes of the Packers, Ravens, Bengals and, as of recently, the San Diego Chargers.

Untrusted Bad vs Untrusted Good sounds like this could be a sneaky Giants win, but that’s where the trump card comes in: Common Sense.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 9

St Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)

Here we have the best start to a Cardinals season in 40 years, since they moved to Arizona. And as much bitter Cowboys fans like myself are gonna complain that having to start Brandon Weeden changed everything, well, the Cards did this starting Drew Stanton for a large chuck of the first half of the season. Their front seven has seen more line-up changes than Fleetwood Mac. Yet even if they haven’t blown anyone out at all (their biggest wins have all been by 11) they still just find a way to win. The Cardinals are this season’s Panthers in that they keep winning without ever seeming convincing. At some point you just have to accept that they’re really, really good. They do give up a lot of yards passing, though you can attribute that to the fact that their run defence is so good that teams have no other choice. Plus they’ve played Peyton Manning. Perhaps most crucial in the Cardinals’ ascension (don’t forget they won 10 games last time too) has been their turnover ratio. 16 forced, just 6 against.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by, oh, let’s say 11

Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

Jay Cutler’s lost the dressing room. You don’t come back from that easily.

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 8

Carolina Panthers (3-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

The big question here: Can the Eagles win with Mark Sanchez starting?

The answer: Yeah, they can.

The sly truth is that Nick Foles has actually not been that great this season. LeSean McCoy’s been less than the game-breaker he should be too – his carries and yards are both in the top 4 but he only has 1 touchdown all season and his longest run is 28 yards. This team has been winning on defence and special teams. Also, let’s not forget the fact that Marky Mark took the Jets to back to back AFC Championship games. Not saying he’s great. Just that he doesn’t have to be.

The only thing that worries me is that the Panthers need this. They could be desperate.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 4

BYE: Houston Texans (4-5), Indianapolis Colts (6-3), Minnesota Vikings (4-5), New England Patriots (7-2), San Diego Chargers (5-4), Washington Pro Football Team (3-6)

This somewhat cryptic tweet came out from Houston Texans backup QB Mr Mallett earlier this week, causing a few conspiracy theorists to chuck on their tin foil hats. Guess what? He’s been named to start after the Texans bye week. Sorry, Fitzy, you been droooopped.

Mallett doesn’t have any decent stats to go by yet, he’s 26 and he’s been a backup for his whole career. 3 years at the Patriots working with Tom Brady and this season under Ryan Fitzpatrick, so we don’t know too much of what to expect. The lad’s barely taken a meaningful snap.

So the case is clearly less of Mallett forcing the Texans’ hand and more of Fitzpatrick wearing out their patience. The team is a mediocre 4-5, only 4 teams have fewer wins in the AFC. Defensively they’re one of the better AFC teams, with JJ Watt obviously to thank for plenty of that, and the run game does fine when Arian Foster is healthy. In fact Foster is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and is second only to the indomitable DeMarco Murray in total rush yards.

Fitzy, though. He’s done some nice things, he moves well and he can throw a good pass now and then… but not often enough. Too many mistakes for a team eyeing up the playoffs. They tried making a run with a mediocre quarterback in the past with Matt Schaub and they could never get over the line. You don’t win much without a decent QB these days no matter how good the rest of your team is. It’s a passing league, after all. Among qualified starters Fitzpatrick is 28th in QBR and of the five men below him, two (EJ Manuel & Geno Smith) have already been dropped and the other three are rookies. Houston have playmakers in other departments, they don’t need a superstar. But they need someone who can control a game and make third and long passes.

Your move, Mr Mallett. (In a week, anyway)

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Born into a family of weekly NFL prediction columnists, he spent his whole life shunning the ‘family business’, until fresh from the army he found himself thrust into it after his father narrowly survived an attempted character assassination by a rival sportswriter. His father was played by Marlon Brando, in case you still haven’t caught the pass.