The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 8
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 66-39
Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (6-0)
What the Dolphins have done to reinvigorate their season is amazing. Dan Campbell’s come in as interim head coach, upping the run game and upping the intensity. There he is swearing and shouting all over the place, holding players accountable and what not.
Unfortunately this week they play the Patriots and that’s never ideal. Thursday night games though, you never quite know. To date they’ve all gone the expected way except for the Saints beating the Falcons two weeks back but the short turnaround can do weird things to a team, especially one like the Pats that relies on an old QB and a few injury prone fellas that are always getting busted up anyway. Not saying I can pick the Dolphins, but I am saying they should give the buggers a battle.
Man, last week was a stinker for picks. If it weren’t for the Panthers and Cardinals in the TV games then I might’ve even fallen to evens… or worse. My hopeful Cowboys pick went sour (DAMMIT CASSEL, PROTECT THE BALL!), while the Bills went to play the Jags in London and for some reason, they played on the other side of the world at the exact inverse of how they play in Buffalo. Idjits. Somehow the Colts lost to the Saints, which makes me wonder if they just aren’t that good at all and the Steelers were disappointing with Landry still in place of Ben, losing to the Chiefs. Oh and don’t even get me started on the Chargers. For Christ’s sake, what is going on there!?
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 6
Detroit Lions (1-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-5)
Not sure how much difference it’ll make but the Lions sacked Joe Lombardi this week, their offensive coordinator and O-line coach. Clearly not living up to his namesake.
In a universe where things go to plan, these two teams would be competing for the playoffs. I still like the Lions a bit though. They’ve gotten more aggressive with the ball and you may as well back the team that can occasionally move the ball against the team that simply cannot. If the Chiefs win, they’ll have +3 turnovers.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-1)
We’ll talk about the unbeaten teams in a sec but in a way, perhaps the Falcons loss to New Orleans the other week is a good thing for them? For one thing, they have a ridiculously easy schedule that would have had an asterisk next to it for eternity if they’d gone 16-0. For another, they’re not really good enough to be much more than an 11 or 12 win team with a balanced run, they’re not gonna beat the Patriots, Packers or Bengals. Yet they’re still a damn fine team that’ll roll towards the playoffs and now they can do it without the pressure of a big fat zero besides their name.
As for the Buccaneers, it takes a special kind of team to throw away a 24 point lead against the Washington R**skins. A very special kind of team.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 9
Arizona Cardinals (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)
The Cardinals’ whole thing is that they destroy teams that are worse than them. There will be no mercy in Cleveland.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cards by 11
San Francisco 49ers (2-5) at St Louis Rams (3-3)
All is not well in 49ers-ville.
After reports earlier in the week that Colin Kaepernick is “on an island” in the Niners locker room, which he and the other players obviously came out and denied, it sounds like losing football games still isn’t really helping morale. This from the CSN Bay Area.com:
“Coach Jim Tomsula said he called a meeting after the 49ers’ offense struggled in a loss to the Green Bay Packers on Oct. 4. Tomsula asked the players to continue to discuss their differences after he left the room.
Tight end Vernon Davis called out Kaepernick and left tackle Joe Staley jumped to Kaepernick’s defense, according to multiple sources and first reported by BayAreaSportsGuy.com. The exchange became heated and may have even gotten physical, sources told CSNBayArea.com.”
The old Players-Only Meetings are never a good sign of things, even before the fisticuffs breakout. That’s a desperate effort move and to pull that one in week four doesn’t bode well.
Since then Kap has been a fair bit better (and the Niners have even won another game!) but to say he was the problem is pretty wide of the mark. This team is scattered with issues.
- Kap through weeks 1-4: 72 of 114 at 63.2% / 727 yards / 2 TDs / 5 INTs
- Kap through weeks 5-7: 52 of 86 at 60.5% / 726 yards / 4 TDs / 0 INTs
The completion rate’s dropped a bit but only because he’s actually trying to throw downfield. Look at the yards, almost level despite 20 fewer completions. Plus he’s cut out the interceptions, though to be fair four of them came in one game against the Cardinals. The worst part is that in two divisional games, Kap’s got a Quarterback Rating of 24.5.
As for the Rams, they always seem to get better in divisional games. Not sure what it is but it works.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 10
New York Giants (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-4)
The Saints have quickly found a bit of form about them. Not sure how, but I’d say it started with the win over Dallas. See, don’t ever say Brandon Weedle doesn’t make teams better, he sure did it for New Orleans. The Giants had troubles against Dallas’ run game last week and if Mark Ingram plays like he did last week then the Saints can come up with a massive win here. They really need it, dropping back to 2 games under sea-level after this little resurgence would be pretty damaging, they need to keep up the momentum. The Giants, they don’t. Their division is awful. Plus they’re not even that good, to be honest, and after a good little stretch of his own Eli Manning is due a clunker. Every time I pick against the Giants I do so out of bitterness and gladness. It’s one of the most rewarding things I know when it comes true too.
Wildcard’s Pick: Come on Drew Breezy, don’t let me down…
Minnesota Vikings (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)
Stefon Diggs, welcome to the NFL.
Yes, that’s a real name, another in the long list of brilliant ones in the NFL. Stefon Diggs is a person and a great wide receiver. Not a Key and Peele punchline.
Last week he had six catches and 108 yards with a TD and also a 9-yard rush. Bridgewater throws on average 110 more yards when Diggs plays this season to when he doesn’t. This was a major recruit out of high school who’s never played with a great QB in college or in the pros, the Vikes took him in the fifth round this last draft. After being inactive in the first three games, he’s come in and given this team an offence beyond Adrian Peterson. They’re pretty good now.
Okay, the Vikings’ four wins have come against the Lions (twice), Chiefs and Chargers. But their only loss since week one to the Niners was a 23-20 defeat in Colorado against the Broncos. The defence looks average on paper but is doing enough (fifth fewest offensive yards against and the tied-second fewest points against – and they’ve played some teams in Detroit and San Diego who like to push the ball through the air), though the offensive line needs to do much better, only the Seattle Seahawks have lost more sack yardage than the Vikes.
The Bears, they’re in the same boat as the Chargers and Lions so I’ve not got much faith there – which seems to be when they’re at their most dangerous.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 3
San Diego Chargers (2-5) at Baltimore Ravens (1-6)
Damn, how do you pick a result between the two most disappointing teams in the NFL? I mean, at least the Chiefs and Cowboys can blame injuries, at least the Lions are playing a little better these days. At least the Texans weren’t expecting to make the playoffs.
For the Chargers, the problem is probably the one we expected it to be: Blocking. That and the fact they give up more yards per play than any other team (6.5). Hey, they can still score points with Philip Rivers throwing passes but they don’t make it easy on him. Nor are you gonna win many games when you haven’t kept a team under 20 points against you all season.
And for the Ravens… well, luck is a part of it. That ominous logo of theirs is counting against them or something. They’re a lot better than their record but they seriously need to find some playmakers on offence beyond Joe Flacco. This is a Super Bowl winning quarterback and the only receiver he has with more than 271 yards is 36 year old Steve Smith. Kamar Aiken, Crockett Gillmore, Marlon Brown… these are not names to put the fear of Omar into teams.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 5
Cincinnati Bengals (6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Let me know if Big Ben’s playing, coz otherwise the Bengals are not gonna blow this. They’re as well-rounded a team as there is in the NFL and this is a massive chance to give themselves a near-unassailable lead in the division after only eight weeks of football.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 3
Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5)
Oh dear.
Wildcard’s Pick: Meh, Titans.
New York Jets (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-3)
I can picture a world in which I am the very last person to completely buy into Derek Carr. I’m more into WR Amari Cooper. There’s a real player right there.
Darrelle Revis vs Amari Cooper is gonna be a blast.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 5
Seattle Seahawks (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-4)
Please don’t make me do this.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 7 – I feel filthy…
Green Bay Packers (6-0) at Denver Broncos (6-0)
Yes please. Two unbeaten teams, one elite offence and one elite defence. Two of the greatest quarterbacks in history. The difference is that one is in their prime and one is on the lower end of his career. Denver has ridden a borderline-best-in-the-league defence to get where they are and their offence is simply not getting it done. Green Bay’s is and their defence is top five as well. There’s the split.
The fact that they’re playing each other means one of these teams loses their perfect record. It also means one keeps it, so there’ll be at least one 7-0 team next week. Four if these picks all pan out. This will be the toughest game of the season for the Pack, not that it gets too much easier away to the Panthers next week. Supposing Carolina and Green Bay both win this week then that guarantees an 8-0 team. Weeks 10-13 are games the Packers should win, though a homer against Romo and the Cowboys in wk. 14 is a toughie, as is wk. 16 away to the Cardinals. I’d say they might lose both of those, as well as another one against the Vikings or Lions simply because every team has at least one week where they don’t turn up.
The Panthers (who we’ll get to next), I figure they’ll lose to the Packers and they’ll also likely get Romo’s Cowboys later in the season, as well as a trip to the Giants bookended by games at and against the Falcons. They could easily finish 4-5, which would still have them at 11-5 if they win this week. Things look good there.
The Patriots will have to travel to the Giants and the Broncos in weeks 9 and 11, never ideal situations taking on the Mannings (though Brady usually has Peyton’s number at least). Plus finishing away to the Jets and Dolphins, those two teams might be in the wildcard hunt as the Pats after the Pats have already wrapped up the division, so let’s say 14-2.
It might be the Bengals with the best chance of 16-0, whether they want that or not who can say? Like, this is a team that always does well in the regular season and has made improvements every time… yet they still haven’t won a single playoff game with Andy Dalton. Going into a game after a first round bye against a team that the previous week will have won more playoff games than this entire franchise has since 1990. That’s a brutal situation. Still, the way they’re playing you can see them giving the Cardinals hell in Arizona, week 11. Maybe the Rams give them the attritional dog-fight that finally gets the best of them, or maybe the Broncos away in week 16 will have figured things out enough to take them down. Really hard to see them finishing with fewer than 13 wins though.
Ah, yes, and the Denver Broncos themselves. Can we ever truly write Peyton Manning off? He’s playing worse than he has in a decade and is undefeated. To be honest, this is not likely to last. The undefeated thing anyway. Games away to the Colts and Steelers, home to the Patriots, Bengals and these Packers all look tough. Love this defence, none is better, but they need more than the league’s third fewest offensive yards (they have had their bye already, so the 49ers will threaten that number soon).
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 3
Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-0)
A black cat’s about to cross the trail of the Indianapolis Colts.
I’m in. I’ll admit it. I’m in on the Panthers (and almost out on the Colts – how fireable is Chuck Pagano?). Great run game, really good defence and a quarterback who’s making plays. Pump the brakes on the Cam Newton = MVP campaign, people. But stay in on the Panthers for another week yet. This is a tough team.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 7
BYE: Buffalo Bills (3-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5), Philadelphia Eagles (3-4), Washington R**skins (3-4).
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. If you enjoy his NFL writing, then be sure to check out his series of sports-based literary erotica, entitled ‘Hardballin’’. Popular titles include ‘Bowling The Maiden Over’, ‘Loving in the Locker Room’, ‘Get Some, Rookie!’, ‘The Fly-Half Who Loved Me’ and the latest addition: ‘Deflate These’.