The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 16
Last Week: 11-5
Season: 134-90
San Diego Chargers (4-10) at Oakland Raiders (6-8)
Washington R*dskins (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-8)
Hey, yeah, sorry for not getting these up before the games were actually played but, like, it was Christmas. Sometimes the old NFL picks just have to wait, no need to be grinches about it man. Anyway, I put it out there on the TNC twitter (giz it a follow, eh?) and as predicted as it… well, as it was.
Check the date on that tweet, it’s legit.
I gave up on my own attempted market correcting of the NFC East division last week and rebounded with an 11-5 round of picks. Solid enough, let’s see if I can ride that wave on into the end of the regular season. So far so good.
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders and R*skins
Indianapolis Colts (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (5-9)
Eww, yuck. The thing with this stage of the season is that some games are absolutely crucial and others are… pretty irrelevant. This should be one of those except that the Colts are still – at 6-8 – in with a very real chance of winning their division. I mean, they’re relying on the Texans to drop at least one of their last two games but then, like: Brandon Weeden. That’s as strong an argument as I can put forth.
On a more specific note, I don’t think the Dolphins are as far away from where they wanna be as many think, despite their terrible season. They’ve got pass rushers that should come good on a more competitive team, they have a decent QB and a quality WR in Jarvis Landry – who’ll probably hit 100 catches and 1000 yards this game. Things have looked better under Dan Campbell and if it’s him or some other that gets the long term head coach role then whoever it is will benefit from a full off-season.
But the Colts are a mess. The last couple years they’ve been a bad team that got by thanks to their quarterback. With Andrew Luck injured, they haven’t had that luxury and it has not been good asides. I still believe in Frank Gore 2016 but he was supposed to bring a run game to this team and they’re 30th in yards per attempt and 31st in total rush yards. The rest of the offence hasn’t been much to speak about either, leading the NFL with 29 turnovers lost. When you have to make drastic changes to your offensive line two weeks in, when your offensive coordinator is sacked halfway through, there must be some severe issues to deal with. Don’t be shocked to see a bit of an overhaul before next season.
T.Y. Hilton has some suggestions:
“It’s hard because we’re not taking shots down the field, so they’re just sitting at the chains waiting for us to break, and they’re breaking, too. We just have to start taking shots down the field and loosen up the defence and get us open. Once we start taking shots, it will loosen up the run game and the passing game. Instead of it being five, six, seven (defenders) in the box, it’s all 11. They’re just waiting.”
You know, I’m pretty sure I picked this team as Super Bowl contenders. Whoops.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 3
Chicago Bears (5-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)
Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 7
Cleveland Browns (3-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
Per ESPN: “[Alex] Smith’s average pass this season travels 6.1 yards past the line of scrimmage. That’s nearly half a yard shorter on average than any other player this season and the third-lowest rate by a qualified quarterback in the past 10 seasons. Only Smith’s 2014 season (5.6 air yards per attempt) and David Carr’s 2006 season (5.9) featured shorter passes on average than Smith’s 2015 season.”
So we know he’s conservative. He’s also setting career highs in:
- Completion percentage (66%)
- Yards per attempt (7.6)
- TD/INT Ratio (4/1)
- Total QBR (63)
Plus it looks like Jeremy Maclin will be the first 1000 yard receiver of his career. He’s 15 yards short, all that could stop him would be an injury or if Travis Kelce (822 yards) gets there first.
And here’s another one. Longest active win streaks in the NFL for 2015:
- 14 – Carolina Panthers
- 8 – Arizona Cardinals
- 8 – Kansas City Chiefs
Don’t overreact here, but I have it on good authority that the Cleveland Browns have been working out a few new quarterbacks…
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 14
New England Patriots (12-2) at New York Jets (9-5)
What do you reckon Christmas is like in the Brady household? Just think on that for a second.
Right, and now think on an injured Pats team against a division rival that they tend to beat but usually only by a score or less. Think of that Jets team playing at home in the cold and think of the run game that they’ll be able to bring in with them, as well as a quality secondary up against a unit that will most likely be without both Edelman and Amendola while Gronk did not look much more than 70% last game. The Pats clinch home-field through the playoffs with a win but a loss and they’ll get the same with a win in Miami next week, while the Jets desperately need to win their last two to hold off the Chiefs and the Steelers in the wildcard race.
I dunno, ordinarily the Patriots should take this with a strong fourth quarter but the Jets need it so much more. If you can afford to lose a game like this and dude’s need resting… it figures this one might go quietly.
Oh hey but shouts to veteran RB Steven Jackson. He figures to make his Patriots debut in this one and will play for his first playoff team since the 2004 Rams. Poor fella.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 3
Dallas Cowboys (4-10) at Buffalo Bills (6-8)
How bad is Matt Cassel? He got flagged for intentional grounding on an intercepted pass. He’s THAT bad.
So it wasn’t a shock when he was dropped for former Detroit Lion Kellen Moore, who you’d presume will hold that starting spot despite getting picked off three times in his first ever NFL appearance. He’s a lefty which adds something different, who showed a decent enough level of comfort (he’s 26 but has spent his entire career carrying the clipboard so far). He actually played the Bills in pre-season and beat them 17-10 while he was still a Lion. As Rex Ryan said:
“First thing that jumps out at you, he's a little bitty dude. You're expecting these big 6-5 dudes and here's a guy that's 6-foot. Then he's throwing with the wrong hand. But he's accurate. He's poised. And obviously the numbers he put up in college speak to that as well.”
Here’s the thing, though… he has no neck. The Cowboys are starting the Hunchback of Notre Dame at QB, that’s how bad it’s gotten beyond Tony Romo. Not a terrible quarterback but he looks like a kid trying on his parents’ clothes for dress-up. How can he even see over his own offensive line?
Also, Dez Bryant isn’t playing. A QB in his first career start and he’s without the team’s star receiver. That won’t be pretty. It’s also a clear sign that the Cowboys no longer care, which you’d suggest is fair enough what with the playoffs now over for them. Dez hasn’t been healthy all season and it started with him skipping pre-season as he awaited a new contract.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 7
Carolina Panthers (14-0) at Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Not as clear cut as it may appear. The Panthers would probably do well to take a few potential targets out of the firing line, guys like Josh Norman who they’d much prefer in a place where he isn’t getting blindsided by WRs with their helmets down charging like rhinos at him. Maybe even Cam Newton, though good luck getting the ball outta his hands. And they certainly don’t need an injury to Jonathan Stewart this close to the big time. Plus the Falcons are at home and coming off their first win in forever. I’m picking the Panthers to finish undefeated but just know that I’m not locking that in quite yet.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 6
San Francisco 49ers (4-10) at Detroit Lions (5-9)
Guess who’s baaaack!
Damn, J, ain’t seen you in a while. Best see how all that practice squad practicing's been coming along. The Hayne Plane was reinstated for air travel this week with LG Alex Boone dumped on injured reserve and the Niners struggling horrifically for anything resembling a run game in the absence of Carlos Hyde. Shaun Draughn teased a little something some but he’s out with a knee injury.
As to whether Hayne is active for the game or not, that may depend on how much more confidence they have in him rather than rookie Kendall Gaskins or Ravens PS poach DuJuan Harris. Yeah, like I said, they’re skint. But Hayne offers some special teams possibility too. Three of the team’s inactive spots for this game are already taken by minor injuries.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 9
Houston Texans (7-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-11)
WEEDLE! WHAT A TREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK!
But not really, this dude is a terrible QB and with T.J. Yates out for the season, he’s got a shot to start a playoff game. Absolutely incredible. Some guys just stumble into their good fortune, he’s like the Forrest Gump of the NFL. Except that he usually loses.
Hahaha, I cannot get over the fact that the Texans are gonna make the playoffs with Brandon Weeden. And you know who’s starting for Tennessee with Marcus Mariota done for his rookie season? Zach Mettenberger, who has lost all six of his career starts and was sacked seven times the last time he played Houston. With such comical quarterbacking (and devastating pass rushing – on both sides too, it’s one of Tenn’s better angles), this calls for an early morning drinking game. Chuck a lil Irish in ya coffee and play along:
Drink once for a sack
Drink once for a passing first down
Drink twice for an interception
Drink twice for a touchdown pass
Drain your glass for a pick six
Let’s see how well you pull up at lunchtime after that.
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 3
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-10)
Here’s one from the same old well. Pour one all the way out for the 2015 Ravens season, which is about to get a fair bit worse before it ends. We knew the Steelers were gonna have a great offence but they’re holding their own defensively too. 26 takeaways helps a fair chunk, this is a very good team and if the Pats and Bengals are still nursing injuries to key players in the playoffs then the Steelers can take any one of them. I honestly think that.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 17
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 6
St Louis Rams (6-8) at Seattle Seahawks (9-5)
Doug Baldwin, weeks 1-8: 31 rec, 345 yds, 2 TDs
Doug Baldwin, weeks 9-16: 34 rec, 540 yds, 11 TDs
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 14
Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (12-2)
Here’s a fun fact: The Cardinals are 9-0 this season when they rush for 115 or more yards. Meanwhile the Packers give up the seventh most yards per rush (4.4) and only the R*skins are ahead of them and in a playoff position – which comes with an asterisk given they’re 7-7.
This is worthy of a playoff game and there is a good chance it’ll be one too.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 2
New York Giants (6-8) at Minnesota Vikings (9-5)
The Giants would be at 10-3-1 if their games had all ended with 75 seconds left. Those two minute drills, man, just killin’ ‘em. It’s all over if they lose here (or if the R*skins win) but they’ll definitely be left wondering what if.
The Vikings will clinch a playoff spot with either:
- A win
- A Seahawks win
- A Falcons loss
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 5
Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) at Denver Broncos (10-4)
Yeah, how about this one to finish the week!? Andy Dalton vs Peyton Manning!
Oh no wait. A.J. McCarron vs Brock Osweiler. Hmm.
I’ll tell you what else, in my ESPN Playoff Machine fiddlings, I’ve come to the conclusion that there is a very, very real chance that the Broncos miss the playoffs. What with Pittsburgh, Kansas City and NYJ with decent chances to win out, the Broncos really need this one. And I don’t think they’ll get it. At least they’ll already know if the Jets have beaten the Patriots because that’s their best backup option – a Jets loss either in that one or next week in Buffalo. It could happen. Then again, it might not.
If there are no playoffs to worry about, I don’t expect to see Peyton back in 2015 (and I figure 2016 to be his last run). If there are… I wonder if they won’t give him next week as an audition – which also makes this an audition/last chance for Ossie.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 1
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He is currently working on the script for the film ‘Concussion 2: Goodell’s Revenge’ while he waits for Will Smith to return his calls.