The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 17
Last Week: 12-4
Season: 146-94
Detroit Lions (6-9) at Chicago Bears (6-9)
Well, ladies and gentlemen, this is the end of another season of Wildcard NFL Picks. From here we advance into the strange and always unpredictable territory of the playoffs, where legends are born (only to be dropped as starters a few years later) and feats of wonderment are performed for an adoring public who didn’t bother to watch that movie ‘Concussion’ because, like, Will Smith sounds weird with an accent and anyway the NFL and Sony totally watered it down to cover up the real issue. I wouldn’t know, I didn’t watch that movie either.
This was the third full year (plus one partial season) that I’ve written this column for this glorious website which if you don’t already you should definitely follow on Facebook - link below and to your left. Safe to say that the midseason slump of 2015 has destroyed my chances of a personal best but I’m happy to say that after that ill-advised tanking experiment at the nadir of my misery, I’ve actually bounced back pretty well. 17 games left, all on NFL Sunday/NFL NZ Monday, to add what I can to these numbers:
- 2015: 146-94 (60.8%)
- 2014: 170-85-1 (66.7%)
- 2013: 159-96-1 (62.4%)
- 2012: 43-21 (70.3%)
A down season of picks, sure, but a 14-2 week and I can still overhaul 2013. Take THAT Past Wildcard, you snarky bastard.
This one’s for last place in the NFC West. Nothing else lying on it so let’s move on, shall we?
Wildcard’s Pick: I still kinda like the Bears
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
You blew it, Pittsburgh. You blew it. Win this one, win it by 40 points if you can. Johnny Manziel isn’t playing and Cleveland are probably staring at that top overall pick anyway. But it’s too late, you’ve already blown it. Playoff qualification is out of your hands. All because you lost to Baltimore. A Baltimore team without half their starters (or something like that), which has notoriously been losing close games all season. And you lost to them with one of the best offences in the NFL. There’s no excuse for that. You blew it.
Fun fact (per ESPN): “The Steelers have ended the season against the Browns in four of the past five seasons. The Steelers won those four games by a combined score of 98-35.”
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 15
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7)
Brandon Weeden on Jerry Jones and the Cowboys’ (continued) collapse:
“I mean, yeah. Absolutely. We get to play extra football and he’ll be watching on his couch. That’s what it’s all about. We’re playing for something.”
Jerry Jones replies:
“I like that. The thing you wanted from him is competitiveness, caring, really getting in there and getting angst about it and really passionate about it.”
For God’s sake, Weedle, you can’t even trash talk properly!
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 6
New York Jets (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8)
Win and the Jets are in. Lose and the Bills may be looking for a new head coach. Is that harsh? Maybe it is, I think Rex Ryan has done enough to be worth sticking with another season, though it’s alarming how much the defence has regressed this past year under a coach known foremost for his defensive leanings. It also wouldn’t be very fair to sack the dude after playing his old team, imagine the horror.
I’ve got a weird one for you now: Ryan Fitzpatrick has not lost a game since shaving off his beard. Whichever razor he used for that filthy deed, I’d like to take a look at it. Might be filled with magic or something, which sounds like some 90s Disney film but that’s a film I’d like to watch. I’d also like to see The Revenant. That looks real cool. Leo fighting bears and jawing with Tom Hardy, that’s a sure recipe for success. Not sure if I like that director or not though, Birdman was a movie that conflicted me. Brilliant in places, kinda stupid in others. It flopped the landing for one. Oh, and Hateful Eight too, I wanna see that. I already saw Star Wars though, you can read my thoughts on that one here.
I don’t trust a non-playoff Bills team that couldn’t even put the Cowboys away convincingly. Jets to sneak it in a low-scorer, they’ve got a few more points in them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 2
New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10)
Play a tune for a truly disastrous Miami Dolphins season. I genuinely thought they could make a run at a wildcard spot but they’ve been so disappointing. The Pats will squeeze this out and get that first round bye.
Wildcard’s Pick: Pats by 6
Tennessee Titans (3-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
Here’s what the Indianapolis Colts – who according to sources have already decided they won’t be inviting coach Chuck Pagano back – need to do to make the playoffs:
First off they need to beat the Titans. The 3-12 Titans without their franchise quarterback, that should be something within the realms of probability.
They will also need the Houston Texans to lose to the 5-win Jaguars so that both Indy and Houston finish at 8-8.
Then they need to end up with the tougher strength of schedule split against the Texans, which means that the need:
- The Falcons to beat the Saints
- The Ravens to beat the Bengals
- The Bills to beat the Jets
- The Broncos to beat the Chargers
- The Dolphins to beat Patriots
- The Raiders to win or tie vs the Chiefs
- And the Steelers to win or tie vs the Browns
- (But not if the Raiders and Steelers both tie)
Nine of the 17 games this week that the Colts need to go their way. I’m picking four of those nine. For what it’s worth, Yahoo Sports crunched the numbers and a single dollar bet on the eight non-Colts games would pay out a massive $1571.78. You can push that up over $3k if you also had the Broncos to beat the Bengals last week, which they also needed to pull through.
I believe this calls for the obligatory Dumb and Dumber meme…
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 3 – even despite their own QB crisis
Baltimore Ravens (5-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
The Ravens won their Big Splash game last week, teams in their position don’t do that twice in a row at this stage of the season. Also, Bengals > Steelers when it comes to not losing to dumb teams. The Bengals are still playing for a possible first round bye and when your starting quarterback is still a “couple of weeks away” (so the sources say) then that is absolutely crucial. The Ravens are not ready for this.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 11
Washington R*dskins (8-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-11)
Nothing on the line for either team but pride and maybe draft positioning. The Cowboys are never going to lose a game on purpose (thanks to Jerry Jones, competitive to a fault that fella) but they’ve put Dez Bryant on injured reserve (man, just a terrible season for him) and are starting Kellen Moore again. Guys are auditioning for next season when Romo will be back for at least one game, maybe more if he can avoid landing on his collar bone.
Dez Bryant in 2015: 31 catches, 401 yards, 3 TDs in 9 games. All are career lows.
Having said all that, I don’t think the R*skins are gonna go all out here and the Cowboys already beat them once. Even if the Skins have emerged as the clear superior in this division, it just wouldn’t be right if the NFC East winner was anything better than 8-8.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 3
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
The Falcons put up a season-salvaging performance in beating the Panthers last week. Sure, they’re not going to the playoffs. But in beating a 14-0 rival they’ve given their fans something that they will be bragging about for a long time to come, a great moment in Falcons history. And while the defence played super well and all, the defining player in that game was Julio Jones with that insane grab for his 70 yard TD. It almost makes you wonder why they don’t throw deep to him more often, right?
Julio Jones in 2015: 127 catches for 1722 yards
All-time record for catches in a season: Marvin Harrison – Colts – 143 (2002)
All-time record for rec. yards in a season: Calvin Johnson – Lions - 1,964 (2012)
Yeah, he’s 17 catches and 243 yards away from breaking each of those records. This is a real, if outside, chance of happening. His career high for catches came against the Giants in week two with 13 of them, but he was also targeted 20 times against Dallas in week three (both wins, not coincidentally). And his record for receiving yards in a game is 259 which he did against the Packers in 2014. This might happen. And if it does, it’ll be happening for a future legend. And the Falcons should do everything they can to make it happen because we’ll all be keeping an eye on this.
He may talk a good game, but he’s playing against a team with a reputation for abysmal secondary play, at home, and with little else on the line. THROW IT DEEP, MATT!
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 14
Philadelphia Eagles (6-9) at New York Giants (6-9)
Both of these teams really thought that they had a shot at the Super Bowl this season…
Then again, I shouldn’t laugh. I’m a Cowboys fan.
Stray thoughts on the Chip Kelly sacking:
- What does this mean for DeMarco Murray?
- Who wants to clean up the mess?
- Is there actually a really good team hidden in there somewhere?
- Chip Kelly to Tennessee then? He really did want that Marcus Mariota reunion in Philly.
- How many teams are in for Sam Bradford if he’s on the block? I’d guess the Browns, Texans and 49ers (especially the 49ers) would give him a starting berth, while at least the Cowboys, Colts, Titans, Ravens and Bills could have used him as a backup this season.
- What if the Eagles had only reined Kelly in on the trades and signings? Seems like that’s the most of where it went wrong.
- What does this mean for hiring coaches outta college in the future?
Who wins between this exact team with Bradford & Murray vs this exact team with Foles & McCoy? Bradford’s not been all they hoped but then Foles has been much worse.
Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 7
St Louis Rams (7-8) at San Francisco 49ers (4-11)
You know, for a week 17 in the NFL, there are a lot of meaningful games still to be played. A lot of competition left and a lot of playoff IMPLICATIONS on the line. This game does not apply to any of that.
Rams season records since 2003:
8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 3-13, 2-14, 1-15, 7-9, 2-14, 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10.
8-8 will be a refreshing season of success for them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Carolina Panthers (14-1)
The Buccs seemed to ease up after slaughtering the Eagles five games ago. Since then they’ve dropped four and won only one, beating the Falcons and losing to four teams (Colts, Saints, Rams & Bears) all of whom cannot finish with winning records. They teased the team they can become but this was a year too soon. Count on a solid improvement in 2016 with a couple new faces and a chunk of new experience.
As for the Panthers, I get the feeling that if they were ever gonna lose a game, last week was the perfect time for it. Gone is the shadow of UNDEFEATED, gone is all that pressure and expectation. I get the feeling that we’ll see a much looser and chirpier Panthers team in this one. A few names rested but more than enough to roll on to 15-1 for the tied-third best ever record.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 10
Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)
Hey so with the Panthers losing, the Chiefs now have the longest active winning streak in the NFL! Well, tied with the Arizona Cardinals anyway. But still, nine games and counting…
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 8
San Diego Chargers (4-11) at Denver Broncos (11-4)
It’s funny how Peyton Manning’s supposed scandal has been shrugged off while the Tom Brady Deflategate thing went on forever, right? Here’s why that happened. Peyton Manning was confident and assured in denying it, he was profuse and he used a naughty word to show how offended he was. And that was it. Meanwhile Tom Brady trashed his phone, lawyered up and went to the mattresses. People latch onto that sorta stuff, just be open and don’t act shamed and nobody will be interested. Unfortunately for Brady, he had the worst possible fan base for shrugging things off behind him. The infuriated Patriots fans literally burned effigies of the commissioner, they took it as a declaration of all-out war. Which in turn drags the whole affair out and all this stuff gets reported on more, it gets the microscope and the third degree. Remember that this is a group of people that last week made winning a coin toss into a conspiracy. I’d like to see Peyton back in the playoffs for sentimental reasons but based on the fact that Brock Ossie is starting again, I’d say that means he won his audition.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 17
Seattle Seahawks (9-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-2)
Stuff to watch out for this week:
- Tom Brady (4636), Philip Rivers (4564), Drew Brees (4547) and Carson Palmer (4542) all have feasible chances at hitting 5k passing yards.
- Blake Bortles is a real chance to catch Peyton Manning’s league-leading 17 interception. Blake has 16, Matt Ryan has 15 and Eli & Big Ben are on 14.
- Ryan Tannehill has cost his team 113 more sack yards than any other QB. 42 to Teddy B’s 299. Let’s see if he falls on his ass some more. (That’s on only 44 sacks, btw. Nobody’s been sacked more, but Alex Smith’s also gone down 44 times and he’s not even in the top ten in lost yardage. That’s called GAME MANAGEMENT).
- Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in pass completion (69.5%). Huh!? Big Ben and Russ are at 68.1%.
- Adrian Peterson’s 1418 rush yards give him a big lead over Doug Martin’s 1354. Todd Gurley and Latavius Murray also have 1k on the board, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart (if he plays), Chris Ivory and Devonta Freeman should pass that mark this week.
- Julio Jones, see the Atlanta pick. Antonio Brown also has 123 receptions.
- Antonio Brown has a slight lead over Jarvis Landry in all-purpose yards (1882 vs 1826).
- Marcus Peters (KC) and Reggie Nelson (CIN) are tied with 8 interceptions. Trumaine Johnson (STL) and Kurt Coleman (CAR) have 7 each.
- Sack leaders: Khalil Mack (OAK) with 15.0, J.J. Watt (HOU) with 14.5, Ziggy Ansah (DET) with 13.5, Carlos Dunlap (CIN) also with 13.5, Chandler Jones (NE) with 12.5 and Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ) with 12.0.
This should be fun. The Cardinals came back from 15 down to win 39-32 in Seattle earlier in the season but that was before Kam Chancellor came back and before Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin started doing their thing. These are two serious Super Bowl challengers. In fact, I’m gonna go on week 17 record and say that I’m backing the Cardinals to win the whole thing this time. I’d back them over the Broncos or the Bengals. I’d back them over the Patriots. They’ve already beaten the Seahawks, thrashed the Packers and edged the Vikings and I’d even back them over the Panthers too. Win this and it’ll mean they’ll have won 13 games in a row by the time they lift the trophy but I never really get why that’s such a big thing. They’re not undefeated, there’s no hype with that. Wouldn’t you rather be the team that keeps on winning when it comes to keeping on winning?
Seattle last week snapped a 62 (SIXTY TWO) game streak in which they’d held a lead at some point in each contest, win or lose ultimately. That is a looong time.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 3
Minnesota Vikings (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-5)
This is where we finish. This is the final game of the regular season and it is a massive one. Although I’m about to drop my craziest fact of the week and here it comes in three, two, one…
Neither the Vikings nor Packers, who have twenty wins between them, have beaten a team with a winning record, aside from when Green Bay beat Minnesota a few weeks back.
Yeah, dude, that’s insane. I’m not sure that either of teams are good for a playoff win unless they end up playing each other and they probably will so scratch that. The way I expect it to go is that the Vikings win this one on a late field goal to massive away fan celebrations at Lambeau, only to lose to the Pack next week when it really matters. That’ll also cap a funny anomaly where the Packers will have won against each of their division rivals on the road and lost to each of them at home. Ha, football. What a laugh, what a giggle.
Have a bloody great final week of games and I’ll catch ya at some stage during the playoff, aye?
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 1
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Sources say that he was born in the midst of a thunderstorm atop a Himalayan mountain in a small wooden hut. Those sources also know who the second shooter on the hill was and they’ve seen Ashley Manning’s medical records.