The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 8
Last Week: 11-4
Season: 64-42
Miami Dolphins (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
Friday 1.25pm NZT
That’s three wins in a row for the Dolphins now and it may not have been easy against the Jets but they got there thanks to the fourth quarter heroics of… Matt Moore! There was something about watching Jay Cutler be Jay Cutler all this season, he’s so depressing. It’s been sad to watch because it was so unambitious but Adam Gase seems like the stubborn type so nothing was due to change. Then Cutler injured his ribs. Stink for him but it’s one of the ruthless things about this sport that sometimes an injury is the boost a team needs.
Matt Moore comes in and hits a couple 20-odd yard completions. They don’t score and the Jets go up 28-14. Then Moore hurls one deep for Kenny Stills to close the gap to one touchdown and ties it up with another one to Stillsy after getting them down there with a bomb to Jarvis Landry. Then he took them back down for the winning field goal.
It’s not that he’s a better quarterback than Cutler… although in 2017 he definitely is… it’s that he’s so much more fun. Spell it with me: G-U-N-S-L-I-N-G-E-R! He and Cutler played almost the same amount of snaps in that game and their numbers were pretty similar. But Moore made them fun, interception and all, while Cutler makes them sad. It’s an easy decision for me.
Although it’s not even a decision at all because Jay Cutler’s cracked ribs mean he won’t play this one. Hands up who got an even worse injury as quarterback last week?
Oh damn, sorry Carson. Can’t really put your hand up… yeah my bad.
A broken arm there for Palmer. The Cardinals are on their bye this time so they’ll at least have time to nurse their backup into the role but after getting shut out against the Rams now feels like the ideal time to rule the Cardies out of the playoffs for 2017. It’s been a rough one, I can sympathise. Wonder what the chances are of Adrian Peterson finishing this season on another team are…
Wildcard’s Pick: Fins by 6
Minnesota Vikings (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-7)
Monday 2.30am NZT
We’re back in London here, which means no relevant home field advantage and a very high chance of a weird res-… oh nah the Browns are playing. No dramas then.
That one goes out to Joe Thomas, the best player on the Cleveland Browns for several seasons now. Yes, he’s an offensive tackle. But he’s a bloody great one who played 10,363 consecutive snaps before tearing the triceps in his left arm. He’s played through torn knee ligaments before but at 33 years old it’ll be tough to return from this. One more depressing thing for the most depressing team in the league.
By the way, I get that Browns fans are annoyed about the 49ers having an equal record and getting more credit in the bank than Cleveland. That’s because they haven’t been this bad for a whole decade though. Also, until they got smoked by Dallas they’d lost five straight games by a field goal or less, having gone to OT twice. That’s the best 0-7 team in history right there. The Browns? They’ve lost by 3, 14, 3, 24, 3, 16 and 3 (OT). Which means that they’re due a big loss this week.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikes by 10
Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
THE PATRIOTS ARE BACK! THEIR DEFENCE IS GREAT! THEY’RE BACK ON THE HIGHWAY TO THE SUPER BOWL, THIS IS NO LONGER A ONE-MAN TEAM! NEW ENGLAND, YAY! BOSTON ALL THE WAY!
Jeezus, people. One big win is all it takes, aye? Come on.
Wildcard’s Pick: Pats by 3… I know…
Chicago Bears (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Mitch Trubisky now has 24 completions (at 50%) in three starts. Two TDs and a pick. Lost to the Vikings with 12/25 passing but beat the Ravens away with 8/16 and beat the Panthers with 4/7. Wait… 4/7? Yeah. He completed four passes in a victory, which is as many completions as he had sacks. AND THEY WON BY 14 POINTS! That, quite frankly, should be a sackable offence for Ron Rivera.
Thank Christ then that the Saints seem to have an uncontainable offence because it really doesn’t look to be that difficult to figure out a team that only attempts seven passes in a game – they won with only five first downs! 153 total yards! The one thing that rings through from both those victories is that they force three turnovers so there’s ya blueprint Breesy Boy. Don’t turn it over.
While we’re here, Rest In Peace to one of New Orleans’ greatest Fats Domino.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 13
Carolina Panthers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Speaking of the Panthers and their complete and utter madness, here they are and they’re playing the Buccaneers in their own ignoble lack glory. Although Cam Newton was the only one to sulk out of a press conference this week when quizzed about his failing offence.
Can he just have a week dealing with the media like a normal person? I get his frustrations but you act like that and you just come off looking like an arsehole. We all know that the offensive line is the biggest problem with the Panthers (dropped passes don’t help) but your quarterback is your leader and he needs to deal with this stuff better, man. In the pressers and on the field because you don’t lose that game to the Bears and escape with no criticism. There’s a funky smell here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 4 because they’re that kinda team
Indianapolis Colts (2-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
T.Y. Hilton: “We were winning our matchups. The O-line just has to play better. Far as receiving, nothing can change," Hilton said. "We've got to take some pride up front and block for him. What if we put them back there and take those hits? We've got to start up front. Once we get the O-line going and back in rhythm, we will be fine.”
I mean, when you go scoreless in any NFL game you’ve got problems. When you miss on 10 of your 15 third downs and all three of your fourths then you’ve got problems. When you average 2.9 yards per pass attempt you’ve got problems. When you take ten sacks you’ve got problems. When you don’t even turn the ball over once (other than on downs) and still lose by 27 points then you’ve got problems. And, yes, when your superstar quarterback hasn’t played all season, and at this stage there isn’t much point in that changing, then you’ve got problems. When your best wide receiver is calling out your offensive line on top of all that then perhaps you’d be better off focusing the Pacers games instead.
Getting whupped by the Steelers probably kills the Bengals off. Clearly not mathematically but who’s picking them to make the playoffs at this point? They don’t deserve it on what we’ve seen so far, that’s for sure. If the comeback’s gonna happen though this is as good a chance as any to get it started… beginning with another big one from AJ Green – ideally without another dropped pass being intercepted.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 9
Oakland Raiders (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (4-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Yo, that Thursday night game… Holy Toledo Batman! I mean, I was trying to juggle that game with the season opener for Steven Adams and the OKC Thunder so I had the basketball on the laptop, the NFL on the telly and at the same time I was trying to, you know, do my job and all that. Nah, not a lot of writing was getting done during all that madness.
I picked the Chiefs in week seven’s predictions with the caveat that the Raiders’ season is pretty much over and yeah I still stick by that. But I gave them a slight chance to win and as soon as they scored first they were always in with a good chance. Lots of lead changes (more than any game all season, apparently) and lots of entertainment. Like Marshawn Lynch’s ejection, for one thing. Or that 99 yard scoring drive by the Chiefs. Or Amari Cooper’s breakthrough day.
But nothing was quite like that final minute of play, no way. Here’s the nutshell version:
- 2:11 – Raiders get the ball on their own 15 yard line, down 30-24
- 1:27 – Derek Carr throws down the middle for Amari Cooper, netting 39 yards
- 0:31 – Carr completes to Jared Cook for 13 yards on 4th & 11 at the KC 42
- 0:23 – Carr hits Cook in the left corner on 3rd & 10, initially called a touchdown on the field but the call is overruled and Cook’s called down at the 1-yard line
- 0:03 – Carr hits Michael Crabtree for the winning touchdown but the score is nullified by an offensive pass interference call
- 0:00 – Carr goes over the middle for Cook, who drops a catch he should have made above his head as time expires. Defensive holding means the game is extended, however
- 0:00 – Carr misses on a pass to Cordarrelle Patterson but another defensive holding call extends the game one further play
- 0:00 – This time Carr goes left to Crabtree, who makes the catch for two yards and the touchdown, the extra point was good and the Raiders, eventually, won
Absolute madness and an amazing game to watch.
What else is insane is that Amari Cooper had 210 receiving yards (and two scores) on 11 catches and there were still eight other passes that went his way that he couldn’t reel in. He must’ve dropped at least a couple of them too – imagine the day he could have had.
The Bills had another good win last week, Tyrod Taylor’s playing well… it’s proper stuff. Thus I can see this pick going the complete wrong way but I really like the momentum a team gets from a heroic late win. If Derek Carr can stay upright in Buffalo then they can even win this with a couple seconds to spare.
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 2
San Francisco 49ers (0-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Umm, so… Carson Wentz is the MVP favourite now? He might be… but you won’t hear me say it. Pretty sure I remember Wentz being amazing early on in the season last time too and that didn’t quite turn into a Super Bowl run, did it? He’s a very good quarterback already but if he’s an MVP candidate then it’s only because the Chiefs have lost a couple in a row.
Wildcard’s MVP Picks (after seven weeks):
- Alex Smith (Chiefs)
- Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Todd Gurley (Rams)
- Drew Brees (Saints)
- Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)
Right now with that presumptive bollocks out of the way, we can look at this ginger ninja with a bit of perspective. Wentzylvania and all that.
61.6% COMP | 1852 YDS | 17 TD | 4 INT | 104.0 RATE
That’s 23rd in completion, 4th in passing yards (he hasn’t had his bye yet), 1st in touchdown passes and 4th in quarterback rating. Some of that will even out as other teams get through more games but you can’t deny it’s been fantastic so far. Helped along by a superb defence as well. Which leaves me wondering where it’s gonna go wrong… hmm.
Last season it was that game against Pittsburgh that he lit it up best in. He went his first three games without a pick and when he finally threw one against the Lions in week four he still played great. Then over the rest of the season he dropped his completion down to around 61% - he’s at a similar mark right now but for far more yards per attempt – while throwing 9 TDs and 13 picks. The other thing we only saw in flashes last season was his ability as a runner. He’s rushing nearly twice as often in 2017. That’s gonna help him out of a few binds, particularly as a QB who holds onto the ball that little bit too long.
So obviously what happened last time was the turnovers appeared. He hasn’t had a multi-pick game yet after four of them last time. There’s one option for disaster. The completion rates don’t seem to be changing, he still has those games where he barely tops 50% and those where he’s in the 70s. He’s getting sacked just as often too, if not more. This is a bit annoying, I can’t find the obvious flaws.
Ah bugger the lad. The Eagles won three in a row to start last season then lost nine of 11. They’ve won six in a row right now. Let’s just call them a streaky team and be done with it – we’ll see where they are in a few weeks after they’ve played the Broncos and Cowboys. There’s also a three game road trip later in the season where Philly goes to the Seahawks, Rams and Giants all in a row before closing at home to the Raiders and Cowboys. Who’s to say they don’t lose at least four of those games? Yo, all of a sudden 9-7 isn’t so hard to imagine… YES, I DID IT! I TALKED MYSELF OFF OF THE EAGLES! Phew.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 10
Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Things aren’t so glamorous in San Francisco, sure, but if anyone’s doubting Kyle Shanahan then just look at what’s become of the reigning MVP and the best offence in the NFL for 2016. The Atlanta Falcons are a mess. I don’t get it. Matt Ryan’s thrown 7 TDs and 6 INTs after throwing 38 TDs and 7 INTs in all of last season so don’t come looking to me for answers there. I picked the Falcons to beat the Pats, I’m as confused as anyone. The whole thing is about as foggy as… the fog that the Super Bowl rematch was held in.
I do agree with the ‘Lanta staffers that firing Steve Sarkisian would be the wrong thing to do. You’ve gotta give the team time to get on the same page and sometimes it takes a whole season. If that means they waste 2017 then they can’t complain – they had their chance last time and they blew it. Having said that, the same play-calling weirdness that cost them that title is still there in this three-game losing streak. There’s a remaining overreliance on the passing game while they’re no longer hitting those deep passes and red zone passes with anywhere near the same accuracy.
It’s not great… but there’s plenty of time to figure this out and they’re only a game back on the Saints. Plus they’re playing the Jets this week. Hey, NYJ will play ya hard, of course they will. But that devastating interception’s coming sooner or later as long as you stay in touch.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 7
Houston Texans (3-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
Monday 9.05am NZT
I like this week, there are no completely terrible games. Maybe the Colts-Bengals but that’s it. Guess that’s what happens when you put the Jags, Giants and the two teams with injured quarterbacks all on the bye at once.
So the third highest scoring team this season comes up against the best scoring defence. It’s also the toughest test of the season for Deshaun Watson… who came away from a quietly subpar game in the win over the Browns. Still had three scores but he threw a pick and completed at under 60%. That’s subpar for him although DeShone Kizer would murder a person for it so eye of the beholder and all that. Something like that.
But the Seahawks defence is brilliant again, dude. They aren’t letting a rookie waltz in and do them like that, not a chance. Last time they played at home they put 48 points in the Colts and they’ve won two more since that. It’s not always pretty and they don’t always get along but when the Hawks are in Seattle they almost always win. 2-0 in 2017 so far, 8-1 in 2016 including playoffs.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6
Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington R*dskins (3-3)
Monday 9.25am NZT
Zeeeeeke.
He’s cleared to play at least one more week – man, that saga’s a joke – and his last five quarters he’s been back to the player he was as a rookie. He had 147 rush yards against the Niners with two rush TDs and a 72 yard catching score on a little screen pass.
Two teams at evens after six, ten games to go so there’s plenty of time but with the Eagles in the same division and nursing what’s soon to be a six-game win streak this matchup kinda feels like an elimination play. Most likely both of them struggle to make the playoffs what with that three-game deficit already in the divvo while a bunch of other buggers are looking better for those wildcards. The Seahawks are second in their div right now, trailing the Rams. The Saints, Falcons and Panthers can put teams away on their day. Then again, with the Packers and Cardinals probably getting swiped off now that path’s a little more open. Never know.
But this is still a massive game and I know I’m not exactly a neutral party in this and I realise both teams have their flaws… but the Cowboys are much better than the R*dskins, seriously. Kirk Cousins does his thing but he’s pretty overrated. Against this team he’ll keep it close with his arm but other than that bluff game against the Rams I don’t really know if the Skins are a rushing kinda team and that’s how you beat the Cowboys – you stop their rush and you shorten the game by running it yourself. Washington can’t do either.
And now a moment to honour the Dallas safety who stepped up to take five kickoffs and three point afters following Dan Bailey’s injury mid-game. Jeff Heath hadn’t taken a kick in practice all season, though he did do the task in high school apparently. Gotta love an unlikely hero.
Thought: is it that hard to have other position players double up as punters and kickers? Not for every team but now and then for that extra roster spot, ya know? Just a thought.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 8
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)
Monday 1.30am NZT
Hide and seek? Really?
Eh, I’ve seen worse I s’pose.
Things are getting sticky for the Lions, a team I’m never comfortable picking against but a team that has some obvious weaknesses too, ones that make them as tough to pick as they are to pick against. Meanwhile the Steelers continue to confound. The win over the Chiefs was desperate stuff but the win over the Bengals was slick. They know what they’re doing now.
Game one and they barely snuck by the Browns without giving Le’Veon Bell hardly anything to do (because of his preseason contract holdout). He had 10 carries for 32 yards and they won by three points against a team that’s still winless two months later. My theory is that the win there gave them too much confidence in not grinding with Bell, they lost to the Bears in OT and Bell had 15 carries for 61 yards. They lost to the Jags and he had 15 carries for 47 yards. Their three wins in October? 35 carries for 144 yards at BAL, 32 carries for 179 yards at KCC & 35 carries for 134 yards vs CIN. Makes sense now. Big Ben’s not the same (although he was good vs Cincy). Gotta let Le’Veon get to work early and often.
Mark Ingram had 114 rush yards and 2 touchdowns against the Lions last game they played so that’s not ideal considering Le’Veon Bell is considerably better. There’s been a bye week to figure things out since. Maybe that’ll do the trick – Jim Caldwell, mate, you got this?
Haha, JuJu.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 4
Denver Broncos (3-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
Tuesday 1.30am NZT
The Chiefs have dropped two in a row but they’ll be fine. Dropped a tight one to the Steelers who were basically a cornered animal and then that nutcase of a game away to Oakland. I’ve got their trip to Dallas as a possible loss after this if only because it’s in Dallas and the two teams are gonna bring a similar theme to the table (insert spiderman clone meme here) but after their bye things clear right up. The Giants suck, that’s a win. Home to the Bills, that’s probably a win. The Jets are a win, then Raiders rematch at home should be a win too. Chargers and Dolphins both at home? Might be more than meets the eye (“TRANSFORMERS (tm)”) but could be wins and then away to the Broncos for another win the way the Broncos are travelling. That’s 13-3 right there and potentially an MVP award for Alex ‘The Gamemanager’ Smith.
Trevor Siemian. Perfectly reasonable quarterback. He tries hard, he seems like a switched on bloke. But he’s not that great now is he? Since he helped demolish the Cowboys in this century’s greatest wonk game (I’ve got so many picks wrong because of that one result) he’s done this:
4 GAMES | 62.3% COMP | 1021 YDS | 2 TD | 5 INT | 72.8 RATE
Scored 42 points against the Cowboys and haven’t topped 16 in a game since, having just gone scoreless against the Chargers. Now the Chargers are a better team than their record, with their habit of blowing wins they almost always are, but that’s pathetic, bro. And their backups are Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler so there’s no plan B either. By the way, not hearing a lot of goodness about Paxton Lynch these days, aye? Not hearing anything about him at all actually and when a backup’s gone MIA while the starter struggles that is a very bad sign. Didn’t everyone love him at the draft? He’s really tall! He’s got a long arm! I know he’s been injured but it’s like nobody even cared.
Yeah… you tell ‘em Pax. You tell ‘em all real good.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 9
BYE: Arizona Cardinals (3-4), Green Bay Packers (4-3), Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3), Los Angeles Rams (5-2), New York Giants (1-6) & Tennessee Titans (4-3)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He’s not a woman. He’s not a man. He is something that you’ll never understand (… he’s an NFL picker!).
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