Last Week: 10-6

Season: 40-23

New England Patriots (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

Friday 1.25pm NZT

Whisper it quietly but what do the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers all have in common?

Answer: Better records than the Pats through the first quarter of the season.

And you can’t blame Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski or any of those jokers either – those blokes are all doing their jobs just as Billy B always asks. In fact Brady’s been one of the best players in the league so far – 1399 passing yards with 10 TDs and zero picks. Wasn’t great against the Chiefs but he’s completed at least 71% of his passes in all three games since. Second in passer rating only to Alex Smith, the untouchable.

Nah, this is the problem:

• 31st in points against (32/game)
• 32nd in yards against (242 more than anyone else)
• 32nd in yards per play (a full y/p worse than anyone else)
• 31st in first downs conceded (24.5/game)
• 27th in defensive penalties (31 in four games)
• 32nd in scoring percentage (concede points on 48.9% of drives)

These are the reigning champs and they’re not just bad on defence… they’re the worst defence in the NFL for chrissake. That they’ve still won two games is entirely down to Tom Brady’s brilliance and the offensive help around him. A few injuries there but damn. Now they’ve gotta go to Tampa Bay on a short turnaround which doesn’t leave a lot of room to fix things up… this might be a really cheeky game then. A grinding win and the Pats get their whole season back on track. Lose and they’ll have a losing record after five games for the first time since 2001. Although… they won the Super Bowl that season. Dammit.

Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 5

San Francisco 49ers (0-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Just to warn you, there are some terrible matchups coming this week. Beginning with this one but there are five games without a team with a winning record on the way – precious opportunities for some and opportunities to condense the ol’ tab switching experience for others. Just leave RedZone on in the background and she’ll be sweet.

Weekly performance review time. Started off okay, getting the TNF and London games right. Then went into absolute crisis mode during the early games again before salvaging a respectable 10-6 with the last six picks all correct. There were some tough ones in there though. The Patriots lost by a field goal, the Jets won in overtime, Atlanta turned it over on downs trying to storm for the win. And I’m still not entirely sure what happened to the Cowboys’ lead against LAR. Anyway, much better than the piss stack of last week’s picks.

Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 7

New York Jets (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-4)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Yo, throw it up there for the best team in NEW YORK CIIIITYYYYY!

You know, the Jets were supposed to be the worst freakin’ franchise in the NFL this season. They looked aaaawful on paper. Dumped a bunch of vets, traded Sheldon Richardson, started Josh McCown. Mate, that doesn’t sound like much of a team right there and yet here we are. Two wins on the trot. Ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East (haha!).

Umm, except that the two quarterbacks they’ve beaten have been Jay Cutler and Blake Bortles. Shout outs are in order for keeping both to some crap numbers (Cutbags: 26/44 for 220 yds with 1 pick // Bort: 15/35 for 140 yds with 1 pick) but to be fair those two can do that against anyone. NYJ completely annihilated the Dolphins run game but the other three teams all grabbed 175+ of ground yardage on them. Dunno where the magic solution lies within that. More likely they played conservative footy against two confused teams and their lack of mistakes took them home. McCown is completing at 70%. Bilal Powell and Matt Forte are picking up a few on the ground. They make the tackles that they can. That’s a bad team doing their best but after this game in Cleveland they have:

Patriots, Dolphins (A), Falcons, Bills, Buccaneers (A), Bye, Panthers, Chiefs, Broncos (A), Saints (A), Chargers & Patriots (A)

Considering that the Dolphins, bad as they’ve often looked (and they’re a missed LAC field goal from being 0-3) haven’t played a game in Miami yet – where they were 6-2 in 2016 – somebody please point to the winnable game in there. Not saying they’ll close 0-11… but they might.

(Yes, I realise that the answer is obviously the Chargers. Make that 1-10 then).

Meanwhile the Browns are still looking for win numero uno and if it doesn’t come this week then they’d better hope they get the Titans and Vikings without their starters (rather possible, tbh). Lose those and away to the Texans before that (expected) then they hit the bye at 0-8. Might mean a coaching change then and afterwards they do still have games like Jags at home, Chargers in LA, and Bears in Chicago which might be winnable. I’ll reiterate what I said a few weeks back, I don’t think the Browns are terrible. But they’ve got some terrible habits still.

Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 3

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Blake Bortles is not a good quarterback. He will never be a good quarterback. Blake Bortles is, in fact, a bad quarterback. The Jaguars defence might be quite fantastic, and it is, but as long as they have a walking Bort at QB they can lose any game at any given time. If you ever played those Pokemon games – bear with me here – and not the silly phone app one from the other year that everyone played for like two weeks but the proper Gameboy ones, there was this one move that you got late in the run called ‘metronome’ and it was basically a roll of the dice, it could be any single move in the game: maybe it’d throw out a ‘psychic’ or maybe a ‘tail whip’. And Bort is like metronome only he’s skewed three outta four tail whips. He can put up a few massive bombs downfield… but he throws three times as many wild ones.

The Steelers should win this one. They’re at home and despite not hitting their stride yet they’re also 3-1 and should be 4-0, really. That’s exciting news if you’re looking to rock the black and yellow in the playoffs. See, Big Ben, Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell make for an incredible offensive trio, the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league, probably. And yet while dudes on that team are openly calling Brown selfish and Big Ben’s calling him out for his temper tantrum and all that it’s the defence that’s conceding the second fewest points per game of anyone so far. We knew they were gonna be scary with the ball in hand. We didn’t know they were gonna bring it this hard without it. Y’all gotta be worried about a team sitting 3-1 already with this much room to improve.

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 10

Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) at New York Giants (0-4)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Hahaha… well somebody’s gotta win. Don’t they? … don’t they!? I dunno, it’s the Chargers against the Giants after all. The only thing you should bet on here is the amount of turnovers.

Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 7

Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Monday 6.00am NZT

I still don’t think the Bills have improved all that much, to be honest. Not sure how I’m supposed to justify that when they’ve just beaten the Broncos and Falcons back to back but I just don’t. I think they’ll come back down to earth eventually, they don’t have much depth and teams that can’t pass the ball well don’t tend to go too far. Yo, imagine if they really had traded Tyrod Taylor though – then they wouldn’t be where they are now, that’s for sure.

Tell you what I did underestimate about the Bills: No more Ryan Brothers. It’s made a difference, you can’t deny it. They’re a steadier, more conventional team now and that defence is really, truly shining. Fantastic on third down, only given up one passing TD all season… hell, only given up four touchdowns in total. They have to be this good for the Bills to keep winning though, that’s probably where I finally find my justification. Don’t hate me, Buffalo. You’re still good enough to beat the Bengals… I’m putting a 10-win cap on this season though. No more (probably less).

 So do we give the Bengals credit for beating the Browns? Sure. Why not. They may as well take what small favours they can find at this point.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 6

Carolina Panthers (3-1) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

Monday 6.00am NZT

The Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the NFL but the Lions are one play away from being able to join them. That Golden Tate catch against the Falcons, dude… so it goes. Instead they’re one of several teams at 3-1, the Panthers included. You’ve also got the Rams, Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Bills, Broncos and Steelers. The Broncs, Steelers and Falcons I’d put a step above. The Lions and Panthers are in that next group. Two top defences with playmaking quarterbacks on hand, gotta love it. And cheers to Riverboat Ron for giving up on the whole ‘Christian McCaffery is our entire offence’ scheme. Quite relieved by that tweak.

Julius Peppers, 37 years old now and still playing, has 4.5 sacks this season. That’s fifth best in the NFL and there isn’t another dude with more than three aged over 31. Love a bit of Peppers.

Fair play to Detroit fans, aye. Gotta respect the hustle.

Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 4

Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-2)

Monday 6.00am NZT

So… the Weedle is back in the NFL while Colin Kaepernick continues to sit on the outside looking in. First of all, Weedle is not a good replacement for anyone but Kap actually kinda fits the mould of Marcus Mariota so if there’s anyone left arguing that Kaepernick is out of the league for football reasons and not political reasons then you can take that argument, cut it into little pieces, chuck it in the blender with a dollop of human faecal matter and call it a smoothie. See which flavour you choke on first. Brandon Weedle, you gotta be kidding me. Bloody hell.

At least that takes the spotlight off of Jay Cutler for a second. He’s also nearing the drop zone and not because he’s injured either. Wonder if that TV gig is still there waiting for him…

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 1

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)

Monday 6.00am NZT

Taking shots at the Chargers now? That’s low, Philly. That’s low as hell.

There’s a lot to like about the Eagles this season. They might not be fantastic in many areas but they also maybe don’t have too many weaknesses and that makes them a bitch to play against. The Cardinals used to be like that but these days not so much. Just recently they’ve shown some signs though and the Cardies remain a very good defensive team against the run (not to mention that quality secondary). Not an easy team to dominate when they actually protect the ball. And Philly just discovered a real quality running game last week so you know what that means? Get the cliché klaxon read…

“I THINK THIS GAME WILL BE WON UP FRONT, JACK. A REAL BATTLE AT THE LINES.”

Bloody think on that then. Arizona need the win a lot more but I’ve gotta lean towards Philly, where the sun always shines.

Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 6

Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Monday 9.05am NZT

OAKLAND IN CRISIS! DEREK CARR TO MISS 2-6 WEEKS! OLD TIMEY HEADLINES CANNOT DO THIS TRAGEDY JUSTICE! THE RAIDERS ARE SCREWED!

The good news is that they have a bye in five weeks so that’s one game he won’t have to miss. They bad news is that, should he miss all six games and back injuries are not easy to come back from in a hurry, then he’s out for contests against the Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs, Bills and Dolphins. There are three very powerful defences there… and the Dolphins and Chargers who can do a thing or two on their days. EJ Manuel and Connor Cook are not gonna be able to ride that wave and they could be lucky to find themselves at 4-5 when they play Patriots in week 11. Recall that they stank it up after Carr broke his leg last season. Recall that the Raiders play in the same division as the Chiefs and Broncos. How you feeling now, Oakland?

At least they still have Marshawn Lynch. He only made 12 yards on nine rushes last week (the Broncos do that to teams, btw) but imagine having this dude in your locker room. He’s honestly the best. Such a cool dude.

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 2

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

Monday 9.05am NZT

Right then, I’m sold. The Rams are for real. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFL. Todd Gurley is gonna win MVP. The Rams are heading for the Super Duper Bowl. I mean, I’m being facetious here… but not entirely. They’re an honest to God great team this year. The Cowboys haven’s been as good this time as they were twelve months ago but they didn’t lose that game – the Rams won it.

(Technically they lost that game… but what I’m saying is they didn’t throw it away, it was taken from them).

The Rams already had the makings of a top defensive unit and then they added Wade Phillips to the mix as DC and so it’s no surprise they’ve been able to do some things there (although they’re crap against the run). What’s more of a shock is that guy who didn’t win a game as a rookie, who spent half a season playing behind Case Keenum for nine games - and that’s 2017 week four Case Keenum, not the fluke he was in week three for the Vikes – is suddenly making plays like some freakin’ ten year vet. Take a look at this black magic…

Goffbags in 2016: 7 G | 54.6% COMP | 1089 YDS | 5 TD | 7 INT | 63.6 RATE

Goffbags in 2017: 4 G | 66.7% COMP | 1072 YDS | 7 TD | 1 INT | 112.2 RATE

Todd Gurley was a rookie pro bowler so it’s not as much of a slap in the face that he’s suddenly incredible now but remember how bad he was last season and consider now that he’s added a whole yard per rush to his 2016 average and already has more total touchdowns in a quarter of a flippin’ season. The insane improvements that Goff and Gurley have made almost at the click of a finger under McVay make for a compelling argument as to his literal wizardry.

Apparently Goff looks like Ryan Gosling too? Dunno, I don’t see it, tbh.

This game is awesome, so looking forward to this. The Seahawks took a hit with Cliff Avril’s injury but they’ll still present the Rams with their toughest defensive opponent so far. Only that the Seahawks can’t really move the ball so well which probably ensures a tight contest – hence the little mistakes could make all the difference. The Hawks have been where the Rams are trying to go. Yeah, did I say I’m looking forward to this one?

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 3

Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

Monday 9.25am NZT

Don’t make me do this, don’t make me do this, don’t make me do this, don’t make me do this, don’t make me do this, don’t make me do this. Argh dammit. I’ve gotta do this, don’t I? Nah bollocks. Cowboys gonna win, they need it more. Yeah piss off.

Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 0.5

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Houston Texans (2-2)

Monday 1.30am NZT

Y’all can chill out on the Deshaun > Dak stuff but young Watto is a serious player, that’s for sure. He’s a leader and a talent. The signs were there against New England but what he did against the Titans last week was the breakout that suddenly turns the Texans into a team worth fearing. If Marcus Mariota is out for any extended amount of time then the Texans might just run away with that division.

57-13, that’s the biggest winning margin and the highest score in Texans history. Watson threw four touchdowns and ran for another one, five TDs in a single game and in this case only his third start as a rookie. Yikes, man. He was on point all day, particularly on his short passes. It was like he couldn’t miss.

Bill O’Brien: “He really can throw the football. He’s a very accurate passer. He’s got big hands. He can really sling it, and he’s a very smart runner. Running is not all about speed. It’s about instincts and understanding how plays are being blocked and understanding the defense that you’re seeing to kind of weave your way through. And so far, so good with that.”

Yeah you’d better be happy with him, Billy. He might end up saving your damn reputation – if not your job. Because whose choice was it to start Tom Savage in week one? Oh yeah, that’s right.

Fun fact: J.J. Watt doesn’t have a single sack so far this season.

But the Chiefs are amazing, they’re the best team in the NFL right now. Dunno if that’ll mean they finally go on a decent playoff run but it’s too early to talk about that anyway. The Chiefs are brilliant. Desean Watson has played one brilliant game in his entire career while the Chiefs have been building towards this for years now. They still have that same baseline, the strong defence, the running punch and the game manager at QB but now they’ve added game-breaking speed amongst their skill players and this is the result. Watson, again, has had one great game. He’s gonna have plenty more troubles to overcome in his career and that might well start with the drop back to earth this week. Possibly. Possibly not though, the Texans are no mugs either.

Quite enjoyed this:

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 4

Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Chicago Bears (1-3)

Tuesday 1.30pm NZT

It’s Trubisky Time, baby!

John Fox: “It was just a decision I thought needed to be made. We’ve had 10 giveaways in the first four weeks of the season, and you can’t win football games that way. Not that they were all one guy’s fault, but the combination of that, we’re going a different direction.”

Not that it was one guy’s fault, but the combination of that means that we’re replacing one guy’s job. Sorry Mike Glennon, you had your chance and you rightfully cocked it up. Now it’s the chance of the bloke whose own fans booed him when his team traded up to draft him. To be honest, it might not make a difference who plays at QB for this Bears squad… but at least this move shows some ambition.

The Vikings are swapping guys in and out too. It’s like an experiment. Sam Bradford went down and they were okay until they weren’t. Now Dalvin Cook, frontrunner for rookie of the year until then, is out and the plot thickens. Next up you can count on a defensive stalwart copping one because as things stand that defence is all that’s keeping them in the air.

Ah, I’ve gotta end it with this one then, don’t I?

Rest in peace and love, Tommy. You were one of the best.

Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 1

BYE: Atlanta Falcons (3-1), Denver Broncos (3-1), New Orleans Saints (2-2) & Washington R*dskins (2-2)

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache and he won’t back down. No he won’t back down. You can stand him up at the gates of hell and he won’t back down.

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