The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 9
Last Week: 11-2
Season: 75-44
Buffalo Bills (5-2) at New York Jets (3-5)
Friday 1.25pm NZT
Kinda stunning that the Bills are 5-2, isn’t it? The Saints are 5-2 but with five straight wins we’ve heard all about it. The Rams are 5-2 and they’ve been the story of the season, arguably. Seahawks? They’re always 5-2 at this stage. Zero dramas there. But the Bills have snuck under the radar.
I dunno that the Jets will be the defining statement for Buffalo but at least it’ll be a televised game that gets them a bit of deserved spotlight. There’s nothing special about the Bills, they’re back with a proper defensive unit that makes plays and they’ve got an offence that can rely on LeSean McCoy again and that tends to do the trick against most sides in the NFL.
Damn, and they just traded for Kelvin Benjamin! KB hasn’t been the same since he got injured in the year the Panthers went to the Super Bowl but he’s still a top quality WR. Cam Newton sure wasn’t too stoked with the trade, that’s for sure. It’s funny because the Bills traded away all their bloody wide receivers before the season, leading to everyone (including me) assuming they were gonna tank, but the NFL is a strange sport and sometimes the path to becoming a good team is way closer than anyone realises. A few position players start playing better, a coach makes a tweak to the strategy… boom. Winning games.
The Bills have a numero uno receiver again. The Bills are going for it.
Hey so’s this guy, shout out to young mate JuJu. Enjoy that bye week, lad.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)
Monday 7.00am NZT
So the hopes that the Buccs were gonna come flaming out of the Hard Knocks experience towards a big season and a push for the playoffs are now all but officially over. That’s four straight losses now and the rot is setting in. Not only that but Jameis Winston has a bad shoulder and he carries that team at the best of times… I wonder if they’ll consider resting him up for a few weeks or if they still think there’s a chance they get back into this thing. This game might be the last of those chances. Also the two games they won were against the Bears and Giants so there’s no reason to think they’ve got anything left. Four of their next five games are away from home.
You know what’s weird about the Saints’ season? Only 11 touchdown passes in seven games for Drew Brees. He’s potentially on track for another 4500 yard season but he’s not hurling them in anymore. The reason for that being that for once the young dudes around him are getting it done.
- Mark Ingram: 464 rush yards @ 4.3 Y/A with 4 TDs
- Alvin Kamara: 243 rush yards @ 5.8 Y/A & 257 rec yards
- Michael Thomas: 480 rec yards on 42 catches
- Ted Ginn: 421 rec yards on 24 catches
- Brandon Coleman: 245 rec yards on 13 catches
And that’s just the offence, I haven’t even gotten into rookie corner Marshon Lattimore or edge-destroyer Cameron Jordan. The Saints are fast becoming one of my favourite teams to watch again.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 13
Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
This sounds more like a therapy session than a heated rivalry between two recent NFC Champions. Let’s all get together on a Sunday afternoon and list everything that’s gone wrong this season. Still got nine wins between them but… argh. So frustrating. In another timeline each of these teams could be dominating the league but instead they’re very, very unconvincing 4-3 and 5-3 teams.
Good thing about the NFL is that you can sort it out in a hurry with a couple tweaks and as long as the goods remain then the potential remains. Like how the Falcons still average the second most yards per play on offence in the entire damned league. Only the Chiefs are better! Yet they’re 19th outta 32 in points scored and even in yardage they’re only ninth. Gotta figure that running fewer offensive plays than any team other than the Bengals has something to do with that – stay on the field and they’ll be fine.
Two things there: they need to start making stops defensively and then they also need to stop not making stops defensively. Get both those things done and Matt Ryan’s gonna look somewhere close to where he was last year again. Seems easy enough when I read it back like that, I guess I just solved the Falcons then.
Time to fix the Panthers. First thing is, trade for Kelvin Benjamin. Need another WR in there. Okay, nah, jokes, I’ve watched too many painful Cam Newton drives to believe that Benjamin wasn’t getting it done like he used to and even though I’d blame those other jokers for dropping passes more than I would for KB, I also don’t hate the rationale that they wanna get faster out there. Quicker WRs mean quicker releases for Cam which means fewer hits and longer plays. Look at the Chiefs and how fast they got, the Rams too, and you can see what Carolina’s getting at.
That’s about all I have to say about them. Too many turnovers obviously, a weak O-Line and a poor run game don’t help. But mostly the Panthers just don’t score enough points and it could only take one shift to fix that.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by a prayer
Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at New York Giants (1-6)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The best thing about the Giants being 1-6 is that I don’t have to write about the Giants anymore.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by who cares
Baltimore Ravens (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Oh man… the form is back in these picks. The magic has returned. But that 11-2 could’ve been an unprecedented 13-0 if I’d not made regretable picks like taking the Raiders to beat the Bills and the Dolphins to beat the Ravens. Both times I got swept up in recent history and personal preferences and those are the two things that ruin any week of picks the fastest. I picked the Dolphins and they went on to lose 40-0. That’s as bad as it gets, haha. Yikes.
Having said that, does anyone believe in the Ravens even after that win? They’re such an ugly team (although the ugliest thing in that game was the hit on Joe Flacco, jeezus). Best moment in that game was when the cat ran on the field and it wasn’t even close. And Tony Romo’s commentary of it, of course.
People who know a lot more than me said that the Titans were gonna be this season’s Raiders but in the four weeks before their bye they let in 57 points in Houston, lost in Miami then beat the Colts and needed OT to beat the Browns. They’re still in a decent place, however this game’s gonna tell us a lot about whether the Titans are legitimately capable of beating good teams. Not because the Ravens are one but because the Ravens are in exactly the same position. It’s like a gatekeeper game. Winner advances to the next level and gets to test themselves there.
Here’s a disgusting stat: in 176 pass attempts and six games Marcus Mariota has only thrown four touchdowns (with four picks) which is a TD% worse than Joe Flacco, Mike Glennon, Trevor Siemian, Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3
Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Marvin Lewis said that he was relieved to find out that the Browns had buggered up the paperwork that meant the AJ McCarron trade didn’t go through. That’s good for him, of course he’s gonna say that. Most people just laughed at yet another example of ineptitude from the Cleveland Browns though. However, I propose this suggestion: what if they tanked it on purpose? Like, they got cold feet and spoiled the ballot sheet.
It’s not the cleverest thing even still because it means they nearly traded for AJ McCarron, who’s not good enough to make a difference for this team right now. He’d bring some stability, sure, but I seriously doubt he’s the dude for the future. Jimmy Garoppolo? He could have been but probably not either, though Cleveland easily could have topped what San Francisco offered from him. Which made it, to me at least, seem like they hesitated on the available Pats guy and then almost panic bought a Bengals backup instead. Still a mess of a situation but those are my thoughts on the matter. I don’t really know the timelines but yeah. Better doing nothing than something that you’ll only regret later.
Anyway, here’s a paragraph that’ll give you some chuckles:
“The Bengals located an email from the Browns regarding the potential trade of quarterback AJ McCarron that was sent shortly before Tuesday's trade deadline, a team spokeswoman said. However, the Bengals didn't see the email until after the deadline because it was sent on an unrecognized email address from the Browns, and because they were in the process of filing their own paperwork on the seemingly finalized trade to the NFL, a major step the Browns failed to complete in time. Cleveland needed to send its own signed documentation to the league and communicate directly with the NFL in order to execute the trade before the deadline.”
But, but, but… emails!?
In other news, Josh Gordon’s been reinstated to the league.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jags by 5
Denver Broncos (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Why didn’t the Broncos trade for Garoppolo? Why not, just flick ‘em a firstie and a fourth and you’d probably have a deal. Unless the Pats refused to trade with a team they might yet meet in the playoffs – just the sort of thing Belichick would do, that slimy toad.
Oh, that’s why the Broncos weren’t at it. We all forgot about Brock!
The Eagles have run more rushing plays than any other team this season, let that sink in. although the Broncos have the sanctified Best Rush Defence in the NFL so… should be fun. Then again, that’s probably irrelevant if it’s gotten to the point where Brock’s starting under centre. Carson Wentz is in the MVP conversation. Brock Osweiler is still being paid by the Browns even after they cut him. Never mind.
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 7
Indianapolis Colts (2-6) at Houston Texans (3-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Tell you what, I’m all in on Deshaun Watson. Like everybody else I already rated the bloke but you go to Seattle and drop 402 yards and 4 passing scores on them then you’re legit. Like, soon to be top ten in the league legit. There were also three picks and they lost… but that’s why he’s a rookie ‘soon to be’ rather than ‘already is’. This at a time when people are starting to second guess Derek Carr (come on, gimme a break!). Love a bit of DS Watto. Just think: there were 11 players (and two quarterbacks) picked ahead of him. The 49ers really shoulda pulled up on Watson, in hindsight. Nothing against Solomon Thomas who’s been solid but maaaaan. Eh, I do hate that rearview mirror re-drafting stuff though. Deal with what ya got, Jimmy Garoppolo came pretty cheap in the end.
Most Touchdown Passes in Rookie Season:
- Peyton Manning (1998) – 26
- Russell Wilson (2012) – 26
- Andrew Luck (2012) – 23
- Dak Prescott (2016) – 23
- Charlie Conerly (1948) – 22
- Jim Kelly (1986) – 22
- George Ratterman (1947) – 22
- Butch Songin (1960) – 22
- Jameis Winston (2015) – 22
… and Deshaun Watson already has 19 with nine games still to go. He’ll probably put another five on the Colts and jump to third all-time with half a season remaining.
UPDATE: Oh for fu...
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by… 100
Washington R*dskins (3-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
Monday 10.05am NZT
The Skins have only lost four times, they have a quarterback who can throw deep and they’re capable of making plays defensively. That’s all well and good for a back-half comeback… except they’ve already lost twice to the Eagles and now once to the Cowboys. Three divisional defeats already and there’s not a lot of coming back from that.
Speaking of comebacks, ladies and gentlemen it’s RUSSELL WILSON!
The same Russell Wilson who just hurled 452 passing yards with 4 TDs with the match-winning comeback at the end there. The same Russell Wilson who, given Jimmy Graham’s butterfingers and the injuries at RB and a pretty poor offensive line, comprises of the whole of the offence for a team that’s won four straight. The same Russell Wilson doing this in 2017:
7 GM | 63.6% COMP | 2008 YDS | 15 TD | 4 INT | 100.4 RATE
He’s an MVP candidate, you know. He’s right up there in that conversation. Probably the third best quarterback in the NFL too, just gonna leave that one out there. Also, Duane Brown. Good addition. Get the team’s MVP a left-tackle to work with and see if it works better. The Seahawks are a smart team that’s always making these clever little moves – that’s why they’re so damn consistent.
This too, this helps:
Oh and another thing…
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 9
Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at San Francisco 49ers (0-8)
Monday 10.05am NZT
Well, lads, this is your best chance. At home against the Cardies who don’t even have a quarterback any more, a team who had already lost their starting running back, a team that definitely looks like they’re heading for the slippery slope. Just had a couple big defeats, sure, but that was before you traded for Jimmy Garoppolo.
Ah yes, Jimmy G. The NFL’s most handsome backup… or at least he was. It’s interesting from a Niners perspective that they were willing to trade for him but it’s equally as interesting from a Patriots perspective. Apparently Bill Belichick is all in on the idea that if there’s no Brady then there’s no chance so it doesn’t matter who they replace him with. Short of getting in, like, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers that’s probably true, too. Might as well trade this joker and get a second rounder for it. A second rounder who’ll come up right near the top of that round, effectively a late-first rounder but cheaper. That’s Billy for you. Just be glad the Pats are on a bye so I don’t have to chuck that pic up of him with his missus either.
Garoppolo’s decent but he’s used to playing for a team that’s had every little possibility mapped out for the last decade and suddenly he’s on a team that’s heavily rebuilding. A team that hasn’t won a game all season. Good for Kyle Shanahan to have a QB that learned under Brady but then he already had Brad Hoyer who is no worse at this moment in time than Jimmy G and that didn’t go so well. But, yeah, there is that one lucky factor that the Cardinals will be starting with Drew Stanton so if the Niners are gonna finally win a game then here’s a decent chance.
Tell you who this affects a whole lot? Kirk Cousins. That market just took a big swing, pretty much everyone assumed he was gonna be a Niner next season and now his best alternative’s gone. Browns or bust, baby!
Wildcard’s Pick: 49ers by 0.1
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
Monday 10.25am NZT
The Chiefs, aye. They got that win they needed which oughta keep them from squandering that 5-0 start and now they can ride with a defeat here if it happens. Which it might not, Dallas are without Zeke Elliott – at least for now, you know how that one’s gone so far – and it’s hard to say how much that’ll affect them. I didn’t think so much at first but it’s no coincidence that the last two weeks when Zeke has got it going have been the two best results of the Cowboys season. At the very least the Chiefs need to expect a split from this NFC East trip that sees them play the Giants next week.
It’s a shame, woulda enjoyed the Kareem Hunt vs Ezekiel Elliott thing but whatever. And I’m not even gonna get into the moral implications of Zeke’s thing because I don’t even know what to believe at this stage. The NFL Players Association’s sure fought hard for him so yeah. Weird one.
Guess this one falls back on Dak Prescott then and it might not have been the story of the Cowboys season yet by any means but Dak’s playing fantastic, if you didn’t realise. I’ve still got Alex Smith as MVP frontrunner at this stage (holding off my man Russ) but Dak’s numbers are surprisingly not as far off as you’d think, you know. And I typed that before I even looked them up…
- Alex Smith: 69.1% COMP | 2181 YDS | 16 TD | 0 INT | 115.4 RATE
- Dak Prescott: 62.8% COMP | 1569 YDS | 14 TD | 4 INT | 96.6 RATE
Obviously Smithy’s cutting it but Prescott’s right up there considering he’s played one fewer game. So add in 300 yards and a couple TD passes and there ya go. Crucially both of them have also run for over 150 yards (Dak with three rush scores) while Prescott’s sack percentage of 3.8% is among the best in the business this season.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 2
Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)
Monday 2.30pm NZT
Ooh look, the two teams I picked wrong last week. Yeah… nah. Not interested.
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 9
Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Detroit Lions (3-4)
Tuesday 2.30pm NZT
What a way to finish things, the Packers without their star player against the depressing Lions. Nobody cares about the Packers when Aaron Rodgers isn’t there and the Lions keep losing close games because clearly that whole Matt Stafford winning every game in the last five minutes thing was always going to level out in the long run. It happened to the Panthers a few seasons ago – that team that won every game close in one year always thinks they’re so much better than they are the next year. Folks, your 2017 Detroit Lions!
Honestly, if the Vikings don’t win this division then bugger it. The Lions did beat the Vikes at the start of October though, wedging a foot in the door just in case. I just can’t come up with too many reasons why I oughta watch this one now that the basketball season has started is all.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 6
BYE: Cleveland Browns (0-8), Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2), New England Patriots (6-2), Los Angeles Chargers (3-5), Chicago Bears (3-5), Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. When he heard that Jimmy Garoppolo was looking for a trade he thought he meant he wanted to fix the plumbing or build houses or something. In a way he’ll get to do both now…
Hey, smack an ad to show some lovin’ for TNC and all these things that we write. We always appreciate that stuff and it’ll help us be able to keep penning them. Cheeeeers.