The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 10
Last Week: 8-5
Season: 83-49
Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
Friday 2.25pm NZT
The more completely stupid Thursday night results that we get, the less this idea makes any sense. I chatted up the Bills as having their chance for a statement result against the Jets last week and they made a statement, alright. Oh mate did they make a statement… losing 34-21 in New York.
Like, doesn’t it seem hypocritical to try emphasise the stuff about player safety and then have teams playing on such a short turnaround like this? Richard Sherman called it a poopfest last year so hopefully he enjoys this one a little better but it’s not like any other coaches or players prefer it either. And as a fan it’s like… we get this one game to start the week but there’s then two days before any other football to savour, it’s just so out of synch that the only reason it exists is to take advantage of a free day of the week for the grid iron telly networks. There’s college stuff the next two days, then NFL the next two and Tuesday and Wednesday are… what, for watching basketball?
Plus it’s so annoying when I have to scratch this thing out every week before the Thursday game then some jerry dumb-bugger gets injured the next day which woulda changed my pick. Deshaun Watson, for example. Or Ezekiel Elliott getting yet another flip-flop on that suspension. Everyone just moans about TNF anyway… although that seems to be the default setting for American sports fans.
Hawks will win. Drew Stanton ain’t getting 250 yards on this defence, whether Earl Thomas plays or not.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by enough
New York Jets (4-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Really wouldn’t have picked the Jets to have twice as many wins as the Buccs at this stage, not before the season started. It’s been a long strange trip already and we’re only at the half-way stage. Although get used to the Buccs being a bit crap because this kinda thing ain’t getting anyone going, broooo…
Just look at DeShaun Jackson’s stonefaced reaction the whole time – he’s #11.
And for some reason the Lions have been going hard at the Eating W’s stuff, TJ Lang going at it on his radio guest show and that opened the floodgates. The Lions didn’t play the Buccs last week, nor are they playing them this week, but if the chatter is coming out of Detroit then they must be feeling brave. Beating Green Bay in Wisconsin will do that for ya, even without Aaron Rodgers.
TJ Lang, Detroit lineman: “I’m not going to lie. That was one of the most embarrassing pregame speeches I’ve ever seen. It wouldn’t have been as bad if his teammates got riled up, but the looks on their faces like, 'What the hell just happened?' I mean, if the guys would have got riled up, you could have been like, 'OK, that was kind of funny, it was kind of cool.' But it was just dead, man. It was brutal.”
Matt Stafford: “I have not eaten a W. I’m not a good pregame speech guy, but no W's eaten over here.”
Jameis, mate. You’re getting trolled by the rest of the NFL here.
Also the Buccs went on to lose 30-10.
Also this:
WHO WANTS TO EAT A W!?!? (Try playing the Buccs).
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 2
Cleveland Browns (0-8) at Detroit Lions (4-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Here they are, those garrulous Lions. They may still have their share of problems but, yo, those receivers sure know how to pull in a highlight reel catch. Every week there’s two superb takes. And their post-TD celebrations are so good that Golden Tate’s selling them on t-shirts.
Hey you know what’d make a great shirt? Eating W’s. Make it happen, somebody.
Could this be the memorable first win of the season, the day that the streak ends, the game in which the Cleveland Browns mark the beginning of a new era, a new quarterback, a new team, the victory that turns finally closes the chapter of misery that the fans have been subjected to for so long…!?
Eh, probably not.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 10
New Orleans Saints (6-2) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Six in a row for the Saints and while Thursday night should have zero ramifications on anything else, it’s still hard to see them doing the Saints for one. New Orleans have turnovers in each of those six games and even though they’ve coughed it up at least twice in their last four they’re still winning by multiple scores. This is a very good team with room to improve, something I’ve dug into in the past. They’ve developed this impressive young secondary, got a genuine run game going even without a star running back (I really like Alvin Kamara, their rookie alt-back). Drew Brees, for once, doesn’t have to do it all.
However there is one area where the Bills can strike and that’s on the ground through the magnificence of LeSean McCoy. Shady’s 3.7 yards per carry are easily the worst of his career to date but that’s largely down to a couple dud games (one against the Jets last week). He’s very up and down this season, thanks in part to inconsistencies around him, but when he’s on he’s incredible and the Saints defence has given up the fourth most y/c in the NFL so far (4.7). The Patriots, Jaguars and Chiefs are the only teams worse (and two of those teams have insane secondaries… as do the Saints on a lesser scale).
Just saying, that’s the blueprint for the Bills. While if the Saints can stop Shady then there’s very little that Tyrod Taylor will be able to do about that. The Saints could make the Super Bowl at this rate, they’re legit good.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7
Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3
Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Over or under: total passing yards in this game. I’m putting it 350, with neither quarterback getting to 200 on their own. Unless this is the big breakout for Mitch Trubisky. Doubt it, though.
Having said that, I do wanna make a point here about the Green Bay supporting cast. Like, I dunno when it was that Clay Matthews stopped getting noticed. I know when that moment was for Jordy Nelson, it was when he missed an entire season of the NFL with a busted knee, but that doesn’t mean he’s suddenly some scrub. The Packers have useful players around. Randall Cobb is still there. Davante Adams gets things done. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is more than just a great name. Lest you think they’re a bunch of old fellas too Blake Martinez leads the team in tackles and he’s only in his second pro season. His emergence at inside linebacker in 2017 has been enormous.
Three defeats in a row since Rodgers got injured is nothing to settle the nerves but Brett Hundley has consistently gotten better with each new game:
- @ MIN (L 33-18) – 18/33 COMP | 157 YDS | 1 TD | 3 INT
- vs NOR (L 26-17) – 12/25 COMP | 87 YDS | 0 TD | 1 INT
- vs DET (L 30-17) – 26/38 COMP | 245 YDS | 0 TD | 0 INT
And it’s not just him that has to adjust, the rest of the team has relied on Aaron Rodgers so much that here comes this fella with 10 total pass attempts in his career before this season and that’s gonna sort itself out straight away? Of course not. But the more comfortable he gets the more he can open things up and while the Pack’s season is done, no worries, they’ve got a few more wins in them.
For comparison’s sake…
- Brett Hundley – 57/97 COMP | 489 YDS | 1 TD | 4 INT | 58.3 RATE
- Mitch Trubisky – 38/80 COMP | 512 YDS | 2 TD | 2 INT | 66.2 RATE
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 6
Los Angeles Chargers (3-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Time for some numbers…
- The Jags have given up the fewest passing yards by a distance of about two Mitch Trubisky games – 1251 compared to the Steelers with 1440 in second.
- The Jags have only given up four passing touchdowns all season, two clear of the Steelers in second and three clear of the Bills in third.
- Opposition QBs complete 58.1% of their passes against the Jaguars, fourth best in the NFL. The Chiefs are top at 54.8% but have given up four times as many passing TDs as Jax.
- With 10 interceptions, the Jags are tied for fourth there but the two top teams, Baltimore (13) & Philly (11) have each played an extra game – both are on their byes this week when the Jaguars come up against Philip Rivers.
- Yards per passing attempt? 5.8… which is well clear of the Steelers’ 6.2 in second. Yards per completion? 10.0… also the best in the league (Vikings are 10.2).
- Hey and the Jaguars also have a big lead on total sacks. They have 35 of them, the Panthers are second with 29 and haven’t had their bye week yet.
Now, to be fair to Philip Rivers he’s only thrown six picks all season. But three of them came in the one game against the Chiefs and they’re the only one of the teams he’s played that are in that top tier of secondaries like the Jaguars are. Rivers has a tendency to compound his errors – he has 44 multi-pick games in his career. I still rate Rivers and I still rate the Chargers but they blew this thing up before they’d even got started and I get the feeling that this might get ugly… unless Bort serves it up for lunch first.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 11
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Washington R*dskins (4-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Skins going to Seattle and winning makes no sense. Those stupid bastards went and cost me what I thought was a dead-set pick and some of that blame, gotta say it, falls down upon a poor showing from Russell Wilson. Not good enough, champ. You drop down the MVP Power Rankings now because of that, dammit.
Week 10 MVP Power Rankings:
- Alex Smith
- Tom Brady
- Carson Wentz
- Drew Brees
- Jacksonville’s Secondary
- Todd Gurley
- Dak Prescott
- Russell Wilson
- Antonio Brown
- Kareem Hunt
Kirk Cousins is an overrated thrower but he’s got a knack for the moment and he made the plays that counted where Wilso missed ‘em. However it was the Washington defence that did it for them. DJ Swearinger sounds like a character outta Deadwood but he picked off that two-point conversion. Kendall Fuller had an interception too. Add in some Josh Norman and there are playmakers there.
So a good thing then that the Vikings coming off a bye are a team I feel confident in saying will beat this Washington lot. They have a defence that is as good as the 2017 Seattle lot and the kind of running game that can pummel the Skins down in the way that the Cowboys and Chiefs already have.
Wow, I laughed at Teddy Bridgewater’s call that he’d play this season but…
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 6
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-6)
Monday 7.00am NZT
You know the Colts have been outscored 97 points to 28 in fourth quarters this season? Meanwhile the Steelers have a top three running back, a top three wide receiver and a division race that they’re starting to pull away from. Count this as another step along the path for Pittsburgh, who looked to be in a complete shambles a month ago and now look like contenders for the AFC again. Funny how sports is.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 14
Houston Texans (3-5) at Los Angeles Rams (6-2)
Monday 10.05am NZT
The Steelers avoided a shambles but the Texans are right arse-deep within one. That Watson injury obviously derailed their season, it’s pretty hard to see them getting to the playoffs from here now. They should have more than three wins by now, they’ll be lucky to get three more wins all season.
Which puts into sharp focus exactly what a mess they’ve been with quarterbacks under Bill O’Brien. Even ignoring the whole Brock Osweiler thing and all the dudes they’ve rolled with in the past, you only had to look at Tom Savage throwing as erratically as he did to see that they really don’t have much to go with here. TJ Yates has been brought back, Matt McGloin was signed on short notice. Then they cut McGloin and signed Josh Johnson – who has not played an NFL game since 2013.
All of this is understandable when you consider Deshaun Watson’s injury but the thing is that Watto’s emergence was a bit of a fluke. As good as he was in his rookie season… BILL O’BRIEN STARTED TOM SAVAGE AHEAD OF HIM IN WEEK ONE! The last few weeks have only made that decision look more and more insane.
So how about them Rams, aye? Imagine this team with a proper quarterback instead of a game-managing Goff chap.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 7
New York Giants (1-7) at San Francisco 49ers (0-9)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Riiiiiiight. Good chat.
It’s all over for McAdoo if they lose here, surely. The reports are already out that he’s lost the dressing room and suddenly he’s talking about dropping Eli Manning when he’s the only damned decent player left on the roster who’s not injured and hasn’t quit on the season yet. You’re gonna be the guy to break Eli’s consecutive game streak, are you?
Anonymous team sources are the best.
The problem is that while the Giants are impossible to pick, the Niners are bloody winless. Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t play last week which meant CJ Beathard got to throw at 47% completion for the second straight game. He’s at 51% for the season which is dead awful, man. He’s not a terrible player though, he’s just a young and inexperienced one… but future Super Bowl winners don’t tend to start their careers that way. Beathard will, however, probably start this week against the G-Men as Jimmy G eases his way into things. Not necessarily, depends on the next few days. But Garoppolo’s inevitable, sooner rather than later.
Holy crap, I’m about to pick the Niners for the second week in a row. What’s wrong with me?
Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 6
Dallas Cowboys (5-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Y’all can laugh at that Tyreke Hill touchdown if you want but the other way to look at it is that the play there right before half-time, a freak play regardless of the sloppy defence, was the only thing that kept the Chiefs in that game as long as it did. The Cowboys outplayed them. Dak Prescott dominated the MVP frontrunner. The Cowboys might be back.
Also, the Cowboys have the third-most sacks this season. The secondary deserves all the question marks it has but Dallas has built a sneakily good front seven and when Sean Lee plays they’re a genuinely good front seven. DeMarcus Lawrence, dude. He shares a name with DeMarcus Ware and he also shares that knack for putting quarterbacks on the ground. That bloke is the real deal.
The Falcons, hmm, the Falcons… look, I wrote a whole thing last week about how close they were to getting back up to being one of the better teams in the NFL and they didn’t listen to a damn word I said so why should I help them out now against my very own beloved Cowboys? Shout out to Jerry Jones’ lawyers by the way. Getting PAID.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 5
New England Patriots (6-2) at Denver Broncos (3-5)
Monday 2.30pm NZT
So that Brock Osweiler thing… that worked out well, aye? 19/38 completions for 208 yards and a couple interceptions in a game where one of the best defences in the NFL conceded 51 points. Apparently it’s infectious.
Here you go, some notable quarterback performances from week nine…
- Brock Osweiler – 19/38 COMP | 208 YDS | 1 TD | 2 INT
- CJ Beathard – 24/51 COMP | 294 YDS | 0 TD | 1 INT
- Tom Savage – 19/44 COMP | 219 YDS | 1 TD | 0 INT
Drew Stanton was okay though, he threw a couple scores. Brett Hundley didn’t but at least he was able to tick over a few checkdown completions to keep the stats in order. Ooh and Bort had one of his better performances too. That’s the model going forward for him – take a sack rather than interception, you can’t be trusted to throw under pressure.
Honestly, it’s disgusting how the path is just clearing up for the Patriots like this. They’re nowhere near as good as they were last time and yet they’re still gonna cruise to 12 wins and a home playoff game. Bloody ridiculous.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10
Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)
Tuesday 2.30am NZT
Yo, stepped him! Oh no wait he was uncovered. Haha, nice.
Umm… probably gotta give this one to the Panthers and just be done with it.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 7
BYE: Baltimore Ravens (4-5), Kansas City Chiefs (6-3), Oakland Raiders (4-5) & Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He is to Adam Schefter and Peter King what Thursday Night Football is to the Super Bowl.
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