The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 4
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 30-17
Chicago Bears (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Friday 1.25pm NZT
Yup… me too, I know the feeling. Bloody Bears. Bloody Jordan Howard. You know Mike Glennon only threw for 101 yards in that win? A win against Ben Roethlisberger? Can’t say that reflects too well on the Steelers but I can say that the run from Jordan Howard that pretty much won it in overtime (almost did but for a sprig on the sideline) was probably the most badass thing I saw all week three. Absolutely magnificent, the speed and the cuts, maaaaate. Get some.
As for the stinkin’ sideline, this is how close it was…
Both of these two teams are coming off overtime wins ahead of the short turnaround which could turn this into something completely wild. You never quite know with Thursday night games and even less so if they’re both that little bit more tired. Neither of those games went deep into OT but the effort required to get there is huge. Aaron Rodgers was 0-7 in career overtime games before leading the Pack back over Cincy last week, by the way. What a mental stat that is.
Then again, it’s the Bears playing away to Aaron Rodgers – who has beaten them 14 times in his career. 38 touchdowns to 9 interceptions vs CHI. Career 67.7% completion rate. Shouldn’t be too complicated… although after throwing at least 42 pass attempts in every game so far it’d be nice for GBP if they could maybe get a win with more of a balanced offence, just saying. 134 pass attempts so far, Carson Palmer has 132 and the next joker is Eli Manning at 117. Not even close. Matt Ryan is 3-0 with only 93 passes, Alex Smith (less surprisingly) is 3-0 with 84 passes thrown.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 17
New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)
Monday 2.30am NZT
What’s this, another London game? Yup, Wembley Stadium. They must be doing well there because I’m long since over the novelty, honestly... I don’t even get to watch them with that time zone, man! Bloody middle of the night!
You know they even play the British anthem before the games alongside the American one? How about playing neither? The paid patriotism thing in American sports – particularly the NFL – is massively uncomfortable. You know the pentagon pays the NFL to ensure that they do these things, right? Not specifically the anthem but that’s all part of the overall effect. But I already wrote about that so this is about all you’ll read about the protests in this column (power to the people). Oh… apart from the Steelers. We’ll come back to the Steelers.
If the Chargers had hit that field goal then Miami woulda been 0-1. Instead they came out with a tight win which perhaps a little too much confidence was gained and the next thing they’re getting beat by the Jets. The goddamned Jets, who does that!? Then Adam Gase went on the absolute offensive about his offensive offence…
The goddamn Jets, man. Come on.
Does that leave the door open for the Saints? Hell yeah it does, especially on neutral ground. New Orleans can move the ball, they did so against the Panthers so they can do so against the Dolphins too – although that Miami defensive line is its strength. For them it’s a matter of limiting teams on defence. Gave up 470 yards to the Vikings? Lost easy. Gave up 555 yards to the Patriots? Lost easy. Gave up 288 yards to the Panthers? Victory! And, ah, not to freak anyone out here but the Dolphins are averaging 280 yards per game through their first two.
And Adrian Peterson? Done absolutely nothing so far. 77 yards on 23 rushes. Wouldn’t give up on him just yet though.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7
Carolina Panthers (2-1) at New England Patriots (2-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Still not gonna mention the protests… but did you realise that Robert Kraft gave Donald Trump a Super Bowl ring a couple months ago? At what point is it not cool for players to express political opinions yet cool for owners to give expensive gifts to a disgrace of a president? Seriously, you’ll go a long way to find more hypocritical people than NFL owners. Apparently over $7m was donated to Trump’s campaign by NFL owners. Many of them also put out statements defending their players this week.
This was Trumpoid talking about how he’s still friends with Bob Kraft and no dramas and he can do whatever he likes. At the same time he conspicuously drags a middle finger over his eyebrow. The president of America, ladies and gents. What a joke.
The Panthers looked awful in losing to the Saints. They really just can’t do a damn thing with the ball these days and it’s sad to watch Cam Newton trying to make it work on his own, almost. And he’s nowhere near his best either. Meanwhile Tom Brady, at 40 years old, just played one of the best games of his career. It’s not even fair.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 10
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Bloody 7-9, mate. I went 7-9 last week. That’s flippin’ pathetic. All of a sudden I’m the Jeff Fisher of NFL picks, week four can’t come soon enough to cleanse this disgusting palette. In week two I picked all eight of the early games correct. It was triumphant. This time I went 2-7 for the early games. Like the hubris of Odysseus, I was scorned by the vengeance of Poseidon!
Accurate.
There’s always a wonky week early on. This, hopefully, was that. I did pick an unnatural amount of away winners but then there were a lot of away favourites too. The Broncos lost to the Bills, the Buccs lost to the Vikings (with Case Keenum at QB), the Jets beat the Dolphins, the R*dskins smashed up the Raiders. All of those were unexpected. Then there was Pittsburgh wetting the bed against Chicago and these here Jaguars bringing the HEAT against the Ravens. 44 points… wasn’t that Ravens defence meant to be insane!? Maybe… but that doesn’t mean they can’t have an off game. It also doesn’t mean they can in any way overcome the short yardage of Joe Flacco’s interception party.
The Jets got their win last week, good for them. Saves an 0-16 season. However I’mma let Jalen Ramsey cover this one. Don’t necessarily agree with him yet – let’s see that secondary against the best QBs - but I do love the hype:
Say, this here is Shahid Khan, the owner of the Jags. He also owns Fulham FC in the English Championship. Plus he has an incredible moustache.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 6
Tennessee Titans (2-1) at Houston Texans (1-2)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Here’s a nice person doing positive things for the community, a fair representation of the NFL’s player base as compared to inherited millionaires who… oh wait I said I wouldn’t mention the protests again, sorry.
He’s also a very good player, you know. Threw for 301 yards against the Pats and against potentially 30 other teams in the league that would’ve been enough for the win… but it was the Pats so no deal. Still, that was the first time Watson looked comfortable in the NFL. If he can get this team on the stroll then you already know they have a defensive front to keep them in most games.
Best part of the Titans win over Seattle? They set that run game en fuego! DeMarco Murray had 115 yards on 14 carries, Derrick Henry bagged 54 on 13 and Marcus Mariota dashed 7 times for 27 yards too. They did what everyone else has been doing and shut down Seattle’s rush but they did what few others have done and ran back over them in return. The Niners got to 159 yards on the ground last week but Seattle annihilated their pass game so all that happened was neither team could score. The last time that a team put 195 rush yards on Seattle? The Buccs in an OT game back in 2013.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 2
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
The Pittsburgh Steelers stayed in the locker room for the anthem. Sweet as, good for them. Except for Alejandro Villanueva, a former military man, who emerged to stand by himself. Coach Mike Tomlin was diplomatic but firm on the whole thing. He said they wanted to “remove ourselves from the controversy”… which is a cop out way of protesting without having to say you were protesting. It didn’t work at all and angry Steelers fans started burning jerseys and writing letters. What a world we live in.
President Art Rooney II had this to say, doubling down on Tomlin’s comments: “The intentions of Steelers players were to stay out of the business of making political statements by not taking the field. Unfortunately, that was interpreted as a boycott of the anthem – which was never our players’ intention.”
That’s remarkably dumb, tbh. Like, that’s not gonna appease either side of the matter – and a matter with only two distinct sides is already a problem. How much do you have to love your symbolic national song and the garbage ceremony of singing it to let that cloud your love of your favourite team? Man, my team’s running back is playing on a suspended sentence for domestic assault, now that’s a difficult thing to support someone through (although I do believe in second chances, you kinda have to ask for that second chance first). Not approving of institutional racism and violence… seems like a rather black and white one. Literally, which is half the problem. I’m actually disappointed there weren’t more white players kneeling. There were some, but not enough.
Speaking of, Ben Roethlisberger then came out and criticised the decision to stay in the sheds. Not really surprising and I get how a dude might have a troubled conscience over that but he also just spoke out publically in opposition to his coach. Meanwhile Villanueva apologised for standing alone and wished he’d been more solid with his teammates despite his patriotism. See, there’s a veteran who cares. Not one of your trash memes. (Not you specifically, I mean…).
The Steelers lost to the Chicago Bears last week. They should’ve won easy but they lost. Straight after staying in the locker room and they lost. Then all this other stuff… I really don’t like the way this is going for the Steelers. And, yes, I realise that the Ravens conceded 44 points to the Jaguars last week but that was in London, you can write that one off.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3
Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-3)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Cool story: the Bengals were the only team in the NFL that Aaron Rodgers had never beaten before. *Were* because now he has beaten them. As well as breaking his OT duck too. But honestly the Bengals let that one sliiiide.
For real, does Andy Dalton not understand that he can throw to whoever he wants? Multiple times in that GB game he had open dudes on one side of the field while he stuttered and stumbled trying to delay as his first intended WR got free… or didn’t. He’s really not been very good so far and I don’t know if he’s still considered untouchable or not. I doubt that AJ McCarron is gonna help anything but at some point you’ve gotta think about it anyway.
Then again, the performance against the Packers was a lot better than the games prior. Just that they got too timid with it towards the end and failed to kill the game off against the best quarterback on the planet – at least one of the top two. Plenty others have made the same mistake. Luckily for the Bengals too the Ravens and Steelers both copped demoralising defeats which keeps the division within two games. And they also play the Browns this week. So… do what they did in the first half against the Packers and they got this, bro.
Credit to Carl Lawson, Cincy linebacker. Somehow he slipped into the fourth round of the last draft but he’s been talked up ever since. Problem was with the Bengals as bad as they were against the run he never got much of a chance to shine in the first two weeks. The Packers don’t play so well on the ground so that brought the pass rush into play and Lawson was magnificent. 2.5 sacks and another one that got wiped off for a flag. Scary stuff.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 8
Detroit Lions (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Was it a catch? Probably not. Looked like a fingertip brushed the bugger with a knee down. Was it a rough call on the Lions, to take away their last-gasp victory like that? Abso-freakin’-lutely. Cost me an even week on the picks too, the buggers. Technically it’s true to the rules but like Dez Bryant’s one in the playoffs a few years back it just doesn’t feel completely fair.
And that’s before you count the fact that because it was ruled a touchdown and reviewed, there was a ten-second runoff on the clock – since the Lions hadn’t saved a timeout for the last eight seconds of the game and all. Instead of one last down it was game over – had the catch been ruled down short of the line in the first place then there might have juuuust been enough time to run another play. Maybe, probably not. But it’s still harsh.
Of course, the Lions can’t be toooo upset at getting stiffed like that for a game in which they never once held the lead. Not that you need to sell Lions fans on a global conspiracy against their team.
Case Keenum, you sly dog. 25/33 for 369 yards with 3 TDs and 0 picks. I only wish I knew before I wrote the Vikings off because of his starting that the Buccs are the only team that Keenum has beaten multiple times before and never lost to. He’s 3-0 against them now, of all the bogeymen to haunt your team Case Keenum has gotta be one of the weirdest.
The Lions won twice against the Vikings in 2014. The Vikings won twice against the Lions in 2015. The Lions won twice against the Vikings in 2016. There’s a pattern emerging here… but I’m not gonna follow it. Count it as yet another fourth quarter comeback for Detroit – they owe themselves one after last week (and, hey, the Falcons are amazing, no dramas losing by eight seconds there).
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 3
Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Monday 6.00am NZT
I can’t even believe that the Cowboys won that game. You read this thing – I’m not one to jump to rapid conclusions. Yet coming off that Denver game and watching that first quarter in Arizona… yikes. Dallas had two three and outs, they had the ball for less than two minutes in the 1Q. But somehow, someway (keep coming up with funky-ass… sorry) they managed to stay within a single score, a missed field goal helped, and before you knew it Dak Prescott was forward-flippin’ over defenders to tie the game up and after that the Cowboys figured out what they were doing. Credit to an extraordinarily inexperienced secondary for staying in it even as they were getting dominated by the great man Larry Fitzgerald. Shout out to Larry, old boy’s still got it.
Man, full credit to my boy Tony Romo as a commentator too. How good is he!? Nice to hear a colour caller who really sounds like he’s enjoying what he does – which makes it enjoyable for the rest of us. Jeez he’s quality. What a man. I love him. I really, truly do.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 9
Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
Monday 6.00am NZT
Early days yet but the Falcons are top five in points scored, offensive yardage and offensive yards per play. They didn’t punt against the Lions until deep into the fourth quarter and while I’ve already mentioned how the Lions got stiffed by the rule book, the Falcons coulda been out of sight long before then had they been that little more clinical – they had three interceptions, one a pick-six and the other two from dropped catches.
And people are trying to say they’ve been lucky to start 3-0?
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 5
Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-3)
Monday 9.05am NZT
Los Angeles Chargers: already missed two game-winning field goals this season.
Philadelphia Eagles: this…
Wildcard’s Pick: Eagles by 3
San Francisco 49ers (0-3) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
Monday 9.05am NZT
The Cardies could use this game about now, there aren’t many teams who can rival the struggle of their season so far. The Chargers, sure. But not too many others. Blew a 17-15 lead going into the fourth quarter against the Lions – not the biggest lead but they conceded 20 points in the fourth so yeah. Then they beat the Colts by three which required 13 points in the fourth quarter and overtime after scoring just 3 against one of the most limited teams in the NFL in 2017 over the first three quarters. Then, yeah, they dominated the Cowboys off the park in the first to only score once and went on to lose 28-17 despite that.
I dunno if that makes them a great team or an awful team – their performances have been inverses of what they should be only to then reverse the inverse at the end. They’re obviously pretty reliant on Carson Palmer making plays given the injuries on offence and Palmer, to be frank, isn’t consistent enough to put four full quarters in against better teams anymore, it’d appear.
Their fixture list doesn’t look too tricky from this point on. Wouldn’t count the Cardies out of figuring it out over the next few weeks – they don’t play a top notch QB until Russell Wilson in six games time and a team with Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu will cause some trouble.
Plus the Niners suck, dude. They’re just not very good. Lotsa young players so the future is brighter than the present but the present ain’t pretty. Say… what’s Colin Kaepernick up to these days?
Wildcard’s Pick: Cardinals by 12
New York Giants (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Monday 9.05am NZT
Yo Eli, how’s that season going for ya!?
Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 2
Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
Monday 9.25am NZT
Flag… that’s a 15 yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct – offering a hand to assist an opponent then pulling it away and giving both players a good laugh. Nah, can’t do that in the NFL, boss.
Need we panic over either of these teams after they followed great starts with bad losses? Eh, maybe a little bit. Trevor Siemian threw some bad ones against the Bills, gotta admit that much. And the Raiders really didn’t look like themselves at all against the Skins, though a lot of that may be having such a big trip to get to Washington. Fair to say that’s a factor that doesn’t get considered so much these days and, sure, it’s not as big a deal as it once was. But no matter how much bouree goes on on the plane you’re still gonna be tired (do they play bouree in the NFL or is that just an NBA thing?).
Chances are those were just bad matchups/circumstances for each team and they’re back to where we expect them to be in this one. Which is a tasty prospect, what with the Chiefs threatening to open up some distance on the rest of the AFC West adding to an already hefty rivalry. Based on stuff so far, I’d imagine we see the Broncos dominate home games and struggle on the road… well they’re at home in this one. The Raiders might have a similar trend, actually… although they were 6-2 for each in 2016. Hard to say but this definitely looks like the most competitive game of the week. Buckle up, amigos.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 4
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Monday 1.30am NZT
I know he came in late but the fact that Scott Tolzien was ever considered a better option than Jacoby Brissett is insane. Speaking of quarterbacks, here’s your weekly Andrew Luck update:
Aaaaalrighty then.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 6
Washington R*skins (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
Tuesday 1.30pm NZT
This Kareem Hunt dude, you gotta be kidding. Three straight games to begin his career with at least 80 rush yards and a rush TD. He skinned the Chargers last week and will probably do the same to the R*dskins this week. By the way, Dan Snyder comes out to stand arm in arm with his team for the anthem like he gives a damn when he refuses to change his own team’s name. I guess the people that would want to change the R*dskins name are not the kinds of people who would buy the R*dskins anyway. Yuck.
Here are some reasons why the Chiefs are the best team in football right now:
- Kareem Hunt, obviously.
- Alex Smith’s completion percentage.
- Andy Reid’s appetite for steak.
- Nine straight games with a scoring play of 50+ yards.
- Top quality pass defence.
- They thrashed the Patriots.
- One turnover in three games (with five takeaways).
- Tyreke Hill’s speed.
- Best yards per play in the NFL so far (7.1).
- Justin Houston.
- Won 13 of their last 15 regular season games.
- They just are.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 10
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache and he’s taking a goddamn knee, baby.
If you wanna support TNC for the things we write and produce (and the things we wanna do but can’t just yet) then just smack an ad. Simple as, mate.