The Wildcard’s NFL Predictions - Week 1
Last Season: 171-85
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Friday 12.20am NZT
You know that phase in the morning when you’ve woken up but your eyes are still closed and you’re not really all there yet? That’s the NFL preseason. And usually when you’re half-awake but unaware that you’re half-awake (because as soon as you are, then you’re fully awake) you just roll over and keep dreaming, trying to preserve that blessed semi-conscious harmony for as long as possible. Which is cool because you can sleep through the NFL preseason and not miss a thing. But then the bloody alarm starts screeching and, oh damn, gotta get up. The regular season’s about to start!
As always, we begin with the defending champs and the Philly Eagles, much as I normally hate them, have made for a pretty compelling set of defending champs. For one thing they beat the Patriots which was amazing. They also did it with a backup quarterback and Nick Foles will start again here with Carson Wentz still not quite ready to go and there’s no real reason to rush him. Lots of young players and a young coach, all combining for what should be a quality team for several years to come. Hey and they signed Aussie rugby league prospect Jordan Mailata to their 53-man active roster after drafting him late on. That’s pretty awesome.
Speaking of the anti-Pats thing, tell you what, I’ve been loving Lane Johnson’s assault on them over the offseason. Actually he started in the lead-up to the Super Bowl, calling Tom Brady a “pretty boy” and all that, but Bostonites being Bostonines they just keep on dragging more out of him.
Take it away, lad: “I just think that the Patriot Way is a fear-based organization. Obviously, do they win? Hell yes, they win. They’ve won for a long time. Do I think people enjoy and can say, ‘I had a lot of fun playing there?’ No, I don’t. That’s just the God’s honest truth.”
Oh yes, keep it coming: “All the media wants to talk about is rings. Rings. I’m going to get this ring and never wear it one day. I’m going to put it away in a box. The only thing you’re going to remember from your playing days, you’re not going to remember the scores. You’re going to remember the people you played with and how you felt. And that’s the truth. All these guys talking about ‘I’ll take the rings.’ OK. You can have your rings. You can also have fucking 15 miserable years.”
Preach it, Lane!: “Here’s what pissed me off: The Patriots, obviously, I respect their coach, I respect Bill, I respect Tom Brady, but just because the way that they won the Super Bowls, the Patriot Way, is that how everybody else is supposed to do the same thing? No, it’s not. And that’s what I got mad at, the arrogance by them. There was obviously some stuff behind closed doors. Their owner talking shit to our owner. Bill talking shit to our head coach before the game. I’m not going to say it, but a lot of shit built up to that, and I just got tired of hearing about it, man, to be honest.”
Magnifico. Also, who could forget this classic oration of Shakespearean quality?
Good value. The Eagles beat the Falcons 15-10 in the divisional round of the playoffs but I usually favour the underdog in these kickoff games, they’ve got more to prove and the Falcons have a lot going for them. A fit starting quarterback helps. They’re also coming into their second season with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I’m picking that helps the ol’ red zone woes. Alshon Jeffery is out for the Eagles as well.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 7
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Monday 5.00am NZT
So here’s what happened while you slept through the NFL preseason:
- Khalil Mack got traded to Chicago and signed a big-ass extension
- Aaron Donald also got paaaaid by the Rams, as did Odell Beckham Jr and Aaron Rodgers by the Giants and the Packers respectively
- Le’Veon Bell is still holding out and his teammates are pissed
- Dallas cut Dan Bailey
- Colin Kaepernick’s Nike ad
- Nathan Peterman, Nick Foles, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Sam Darnold are all slated to start in week one
Umm… probably some other stuff too. But no football, didn’t miss any of that.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bengals by 3
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Monday 5.00am NZT
Say, did you happen to already read my NFL Team Previews? No? Well then why do I even bother writing this stuff for you ungrateful… ah, here you go, have a peek at it now:
I’ve made my feelings on Joe Flacco known across my various writings recently. They’re all talking him up and I’m just not buying it. A sharp preseason means nothing, there’s no way he’d be getting so much support if he wasn’t getting $25m this season and another $26.5m the year after. It’s possible they can get out of the deal in 2020 but they’re financially stuck with him for at least two more seasons. Not saying they don’t believe their own hype in Baltimore, simply saying that that terrifying contract means they have to say stuff like that even if they don’t.
Hmm but they still have a bloody great defence in Baltimore and I’ve got zero confidence in the Buffalo quarterback situation this season. This will be the rebuilding year we thought they were primed for last time. Which is all good, Nathan Peterman/Josh Allen ain’t ready yet so there’s no hurry. Picking there to be a few sacks and interceptions in this one.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Monday 5.00am NZT
The NFL’s pretty ruthless. You can have an outstanding season, every bit the stuff of champions, but one botched defensive play in the last minute of a divisional game and it’s all over. The Saints, in my mind, are good enough to win the Super Bowl this season. I’ve got them as early season possibilities along with the Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers (Le’Veon depending), Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles. Outside bets being the Green Bay Packers and LA Chargers. Not buying that the Rams and Texans can go all the way but, hey, it’s a long season so plenty can change between now and then. As my mindfulness app often reminds me, the only true knowledge in this world is the knowledge that we know nothing. It’s one to ponder while sitting under your favourite meditation tree.
Also, last season Drew Brees 508 yards at 77.2% completion with 3 TDs and no picks against the Buccs. Tampa came back to win one of those, in week 16, but Brees was extremely useful both games. Easy Breesy, my friend. In fact Drew Brees isn’t the worst outside bet for MVP if it all comes good. Last season Alvin Kamara took the focus as the explosive rookie talent but if the Saints keep growing, as a young team should (especially defensively), and DB adds ten TDs to his tally then it’ll take a lot to beat him.
Oh, no Jameis Winston here either, another reason for the Saints to do it with room to spare. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a perfectly okay backup but nah. I’ve got high hopes for Marshon Lattimore and Patrick Robinson at corner for New Orleans. Man, I like a lot of things about this New Orleans team. Play us out, Fats. It’s a Norleans boogie.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 14
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Monday 5.00am NZT
Come on, we already know it was Tom Brady who wrote it. Why do these people hide behind their anonymous op-eds, thinking they can write this stuff without facing up to any tangible consequences? Be a leader, Tom. Slander your head coach in public like we know you want to.
This is a crazy good game for a week one clash. The Texans were awful last season but are welcoming back Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt as well as adding some interesting guys in the draft despite not picking in the first two rounds – Duke Ejiofor coming off the edge is one guy, tight end Jordan Akins another. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are a superb WR combo. Jadaveon Clowney is brilliant. Tyrann Mathieu’s a nice free agent pick up too. See, this is why people are all over the Texans in 2018.
The Patriots are one of the seven teams that Deshaun Watson has already played before, Tom Brady throwing a touchdown to Brandin Cooks with 23 seconds left for a 36-33 Patriots win in week three. Watson threw 301 yards but had two picks with his two TDs. It was a turning point for DW though, the first week he really looked like he was onto something, and he threw 16 touchdowns in his next four games. The Pats are 4-0 at Foxborough against the Texans and they usually find a way to win in week one. Didn’t last time, they got smoked by the Chiefs, and I toyed very much with giving the Texans the win here but ultimately it’s Bill Belichick against Bill O’Brien and Belichick has no sympathy for his ex-assistants. Even Darth Vader still takes orders from The Emperor.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 4
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings
Monday 5.00am NZT
Ahkello Witherspoon is Jimmy Witherspoon’s grandson. I only just found that out. The Vikings are a much better team and the Niners are going to struggle without a proper running back (they signed Jerrick McKinnon from the Vikes but he busted his knee in preseason, which sucks) so don’t think too hard about the outcome. Garoppalo’s first defeat. I love Jimmy Witherspoon, mate. Blues singer from the 50s and 60s who had a real jazzy, late night feel to his stuff. Check out his 1963 album Evenin’ Blues, it’s a jam.
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 3
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
Monday 5.00am NZT
Wait, there’s more. Here’s another thing to read and, guess what, neither of these two quarterbacks are ranked particularly highly. But fair play to them, I like ‘em both and wish ‘em well. There are better games to be watching on the opening Monday morning of the season though.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 1
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
Monday 5.00am NZT
Odell Beckham Jr. Eli Manning. Saquon Barkley. Sterling Shepard.
Jalen Ramsey. Calais Campbell. AJ Bouye. Myles Jack.
The funny thing is that I instinctively looked at the two teams in question and shrugged it off before realise, no wait, this could be an amazing game. I’ve got huge doubts about the Jacksonville offence with Blake ‘The Bort’ Bortles in action and not particularly liking this post-Jason Pierre-Paul NYG defensive unit either, although at least I can see them exceeding those expectations. However you give me the unpredictable dynamism of OBJ up against the lockdown, throw away the keys Jalen Ramsey and that right there is already a battle even before the rest of the Jags D get amongst it.
By the way, do yourself a favour and read Jalen Ramsey’s GQ piece from a few weeks back. Skip the scene setting and go straight to the Q&As where he starts ripping on everybody. Some notable opinions of Jalen Ramsey…
Josh Allen: “trash”
Joe Flacco: “sucks”
Matt Ryan: “overrated”
Jimmy G: “I don't know yet”
Andrew Luck: “I don't really think he's that good”
Eli Manning: “Eli.. It's not really Eli. I think it's Odell. I won't say Eli's good, I'll say Odell's good. And their connection is good.”
He also says a lot of nice things about a lot of other players, I just picked the shit-stirring. Dude speaks his mind which is what you want from him in an interview, hence why I say go and read it. Pretty enlightening. He got me thinking about Blake Bortles too, how they stopped trusting him to throw the ball in the playoffs against New England last year and that ended up costing them the game. The team got nervous and didn’t trust him when, say what you will about him, he was good enough to get them that far.
Good dude, Jalen Ramsey.
Wildcard’s Pick: Jaguars by 10
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Monday 5.00am NZT
Let me tell you this right now, the Browns are going to win. I know, it’s a risky bet. But this is the new season and I’m all about living the dangerous life. Live it up.
The Steelers started slow last season. They only beat the Browns in week by three points and then they only beat them by four in the final game of the regular season too. A +7 points differential in two games against an 0-16 team. Then consider that Le’Veon Bell situation which is bubbling away. Even if he plays and I doubt at this point that he will, there’s already been some fire in the locker room with teammates calling him out for being selfish and… well, this does not bode well for me, to be honest.
I also think that a team like Cleveland, with so much misery recently and an entire preseason building towards breaking that winless streak, will come out burning with the fire of a thousand suns in week one, they’ll never be more focussed than they will be here. Lose this and they’re back on a losing streak and every subsequent loss makes it harder to recover emotionally. We saw this with them last season. Then chuck in that Tyrod Taylor is one of the safest QBs out there, a guy who does not make silly mistakes, and I’ve really sold myself on this madness. You’ll see me in a straitjacket next week if Big Ben throws five touchdowns and the Steelers win by forty.
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 0.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Monday 8.05am NZT
I’m all aboard the Chargers bandwagon this season and will be until they succumb to their first horrific choke of the season. It usually comes in week one but Patty Mahomes surely isn’t gonna show up and pop one on Philip Rivers. I mean, this game’s in LA. Nobody’s gonna show up at all.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 7
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
Monday 8.25am NZT
I kept it neutral in the preview and QB ranks but now is the time to let the Cowboys flag fly. Not really sure what to think about the Boys in 2018, there are injuries/illness on the offensive line and a couple free agency hits haven’t helped but I really liked their draft for the most part and keeping DeMarcus Lawrence was crucial. A fully prepared Zeke and Dak will go a long way towards keeping this team competitive though I’m not all that confident of a playoffs spot, not in the NFC, not this season. See how it goes.
The one thing with the Cowboys is that they’re two years removed from Tony Romo’s retirement and they’ve just had Jason Witten retire and Dez Bryant left. There goes 132 of Prescott’s 308 completions last season and 119 of 311 the season before. Witten is a legend in the locker room and a massive loss, even if he was starting to show his age. Bryant remains an excellent receiver but for whatever reason he wasn’t getting his opportunities in this system. He and Romo were on lock, he and Dak never figured it out. It’s telling that Dez isn’t even in the league at the moment, teams aren’t looking to give him his dollars, but he’ll settle for something soon enough. He’s got more in the tank… but I’m not so worried about him leaving. Dallas’ wideouts are all about the speed at the moment and that’s a nice development, however not having the security blanket of a monster tight end is a worry. Cam Newton could tell you that much with Greg Olsen.
Wildcard’s Pick: Dammit, Panthers by 3
Washington R*dskins at Arizona Cardinals
Monday 8.25am NZT
Can I quickly say something about the Colin Kaepernick/Nike thing? Of course I can, this is my column. So fair play to Kap for getting paid, he’s done the hard yards and he’s an American hero at this point. A proper icon. I don’t care about flags, about anthems, about idiots who care about flags and anthems. He’s back in the focus and with that his message is back in the focus. Sweet as. But let’s not make out that Nike are the good guys here by association, they’re just doing what establishment organisations have done all through history. They take what’s revolutionary, package it for the masses and then sell it back to them so they can feel cool about themselves. You’re not more woke for wearing Nike than you are for wearing bloody anything else. In fact you’re probably most woke if you walk around town in barefeet because Nike still make those shoes in South Asian sweatshops, pretty sure. And the markups on those things!? Please. Nike don’t care about human rights, they’re just trying to make another buck and cash in on the side of the political divide that isn’t going to die off in a few years. I hate capitalism so much.
And while I’m at it, Washington: change the name.
Wildcard’s Pick: Skins by 6
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Monday 8.25am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 2
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Monday 12.20pm NZT
Yeah, see the Bears have long had an Aaron Rodgers problem. The Patriots are the best example of where being the default best team in your division year after year can get you while the Bears are currently trying to overcome the opposite where the Lions are looking sharp again, the Vikings have genuine title intentions and the Packers just welcomed back the man who has constantly torched them whenever they’ve played. It’s fair to dig what the Bears have done this offseason but it’s also fair to think they’re a long way from contention just yet. Mitch Trubisky has started 12 games in his entire career so far while the other three QBs in the NFC North are all top-15 talents. Some might even argue top-10, depending on where you rank Kirk Cousins. I have him at 13th, for what it’s worth.
Khalil Mack makes a big difference to that defence. He turns the Bears D from an interesting bunch of prospects to a genuine unit with a central threat. But Rodgers has taken care of plenty of superstar defenders in this division already in his career – think Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Ndamukong Suh and Brian Urlacher for starters.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 9
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
Tuesday 11.10am NZT
Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold.
Wildcard’s Pick: Still picking the Lions though
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders
Tuesday 2.20pm NZT
Yeah… really not buying the Jon Gruden thing. He’s already cocked up by letting the team trade Khalil Mack, he is what you hope a couple first round picks might turn into so you don’t go backwards with it like that. They had a team that was in the playoffs two years ago and now they’re back almost at square one with a bunch of boring veterans and a quarterback who had a real down season last time. Derek Carr doesn’t worry me. He’s maybe the only one who’ll thrive under Gruden’s coaching. Because doing a few quarterback camps doesn’t keep your reps up as a head coach and ten years is a long time to be out of the game.
Bleacher Report: “There are some aspects of the game he liked better before. Instant replay has run amok, in his opinion. He doesn't understand the regulations that prohibit contact between coaches and players for about three months in the offseason. He's not sure what a catch is anymore.
And he can do without some modern technology, like virtual reality training. "I don't want to wear goggles in my quarterback meetings, you know?" he says, putting his fingers in rings around his eyes. "I don't. We're not going to sit there in goggles and buy a spaceship. I'm not going to have some robot tell me what play to call."”
Middle-aged man is resistant to the modern ideas and ridicules them through exaggeration, wishing instead to recapture the glory days. Stop me if you’ve heard that one before.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 12
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He is a part of the resistance, working from inside the clickbaity kiwi sports media administration and thwarting the whatever the line is, you get the idea, etc.
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