The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 11
Last Week: 4-9
Season: 89-58-1
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-6)
Friday 2.20pm NZT
I’d just like to take a moment before we begin to thank you for continuing to read this column. Not only because I’m poor and I need the views but also because last week was probably the worst week I’ve ever had doing this thing (and this picks column was the first thing I ever wrote for TNC) so whether it be your continuing faith, simply your interest in my peculiar perspective on the NFL, or a general sense of wanting to laugh at my failures... whatever floats your boat, I’m grateful for it. Your readership means more than my own (lack of) competency ever could.
Nah but seriously what a week. The Dolphins and the Jets both won. The Saints lost to the bloody Falcons (bring back Teddy Bridgewater!). There was late drama basically across the board... eleven of the thirteen games finished within eight points and five of those were two or three point games. The drama. The chaos. The absolute carnage upon my picks.
Both of these two teams sprung rough ones on me last week. The Browns managed to stick to the script in getting an interception-free game from Baker Mayfield and 116 yards at 5.8 per carry from Nick Chubb, therefore asking the Bills offence to beat them and that lot weren’t able to. Similar with the Steelers, who know that they can’t do what they used to do on offence but they limited where Mason Rudolph could go wrong and then unleashed fury upon Jared Goff. Lol, remember how that guy was an MVP candidate a year ago? And how, Mahomes aside, that was an actual logical position to hold? Yeah not so much this time around.
Divisional battles always get frisky. Close rivals often know a team’s weaknesses better than anyone else and if these respective coaches are also going to call this game conservatively then that only adds to the friskiness as every error could be definitive. The Browns have been full of those, from dumb penalties to dumb coaching to Baker Mayfield not being able to control his worst impulses in the passing game... and if they lose this then their playoff hopes are effectively kaput. That’s a lot of pressure, even for a home game, and despite the fact that they clearly have the better roster of the two teams there’s not much about the Browns that make me wanna trust them. Mike Tomlin over Freddie Kitchens literally every day of the week. And next week too. All month in fact. Hell, make it a year.
And so I won’t trust them. The Steelers are on a four-game win streak in which they’ve had 14 defensive takeaways (and they had three more in an OT loss to the Ravens the week before). Minkah Fitzpatrick has taken two of those to the house. This Steelers defence, which for the last few years has been their weakness, has really stepped it up with some crucial plays over the last month. And fair play too because it’s revived their season. Meanwhile the Browns are fourth in the most turnovers on offence this season, as well as being the third most penalised team.
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 3
Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Carolina Panthers (5-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Atlanta Falcons for the first eight weeks: Seven sacks
Atlanta Falcons vs the Saints last week: Six sacks
It’s pretty much that simple too, they brought mass pressure to Drew Brees and a very useful offensive line for the Saints and it won them the game. This was beyond breathtaking. It was breath-mugging. The Falcons were the second worst team in the league for getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks going into their bye week and here they come out and dominate a really good team like that... I don’t even know what else to say.
They did promote linebacker coach Jeff Ulbrich to call defensive plays though, so yeah maybe stick with that arrangement. They’re still in the playoff hunt too, win out and you never know what 9-7 might do... haha nah that’s not happening. But Dan Quinn can still save his job and a good chunk of these players might do the same. They did that with Matt Ryan throwing less than 200 yards as well so there’s room to grow even still for the team who had been the single most disappointing of the first half of the 2019 season. For such a drastic shift between games though, it’s kinda hard to see them backing that up.
People have stopped talking about Christian McCaffrey at the same rate, probably because the Panthers have lost two of their last three and now Cam Newton is confirmed out for the rest of the regular season at the very least. But CMC has not slowed down. He has at least 108 rush yards at a minimum of 5.4y/a in each of his last three games. Weirdly the only team that’s had an answer for him has been Tampa Bay, who have limited him to a total of 68 rush yards on 38 carries with one touchdown (as well as six catches for 42 yards and a touchdown) in two games. Against everyone else he’s just straight up dominated. He’s scored a touchdown in seven consecutive games. And incredibly last week he made his first fumble of the entire season. He’s thirty total yards from scrimmage behind Dalvin Cook and he’s played one fewer game thanks to the bye. His 14 total TDs lead the NFL tied with Aaron Jones.
Wildcard’s Pick: Panthers by 8
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Detroit Lions (3-5-1)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Whatever the hell that was last week it was inexcusable. Once again the Cowboys started slowly but on the back of a Dak Prescott masterclass they had it in the bag on the drive for the winning touchdown... only for Jason Garrett and Kellen Moore to inexplicably take the ball out of Prescott’s hands and run consecutive rushing plays, the second one for a loss, against a Vikings defensive line that had crushed the run all day. Like, Zeke didn’t have a single yard that wasn’t hard earned. Why would you possibly be so stupid as to not let your red-hot quarterback win you that game? Seriously, these fellas really overthink things sometimes.
That infuriating defeat drags the Cowboys back to even at the top of the NFC East with the Eagles, though ahead on the tiebreaker. The two teams get to play each other again in week 16 which is shaping up to be rather essential... but it’s also been the case that whenever Dallas has cocked one up the Eagles then hand the initiative straight back. And Philly has a much tastier schedule the rest of the way but they do have to get through the Patriots and Seahawks first. A win at home in that week 16 game eliminates one of those with the tiebreaker but they still have to win that for it to matter and they kinda did lose 37-10 last time they played Dallas. So it’s sorta negligible. Also I think the Cowboys can back themselves against teams like the Bills, Bears, and Rams. Those teams have just as many, probably more, holes as Dallas does.
Cowboys remaining games: at Lions (3-5-1), at Patriots (8-1), vs Bill s (6-3), at Bears (4-5), vs Rams (5-4), at Eagles (5-4), vs R*dskins (1-8)
Eagles remaining games: vs Patriots (8-1), vs Seahawks (8-2), at Dolphins (2-7), vs Giants (2-8), at R*dskins (1-8), vs Cowboys (5-4), at Giants (2-8)
I’ve already mentioned Dak Prescott and check the stats because he’s right up there in all the major categories. If his team was 7-2 like they should be if they’d beaten the Jets and Vikings then he’d be getting MVP yarns (he’s in the second tier as it is, along with guys like Christian McCaffrey and DeSean Watson)... but last week was a masterclass from Amari Cooper. Dude’s a fantastic wideout but he’s made some drops this season. But catches like this... damn. How are these even possible?
Nothing much to say about the Lions. I wouldn’t have picked them last week if I’d known that Matt Stafford wouldn’t play and Staff’s still not back in practice and with a back injury as a quarterback that’s a really tough one. Which ended a 136 game starting streak by the way. But yeah he’s still in doubt here and with only three wins so far there’s not a lot left to play for in Detroit. They’ve already blown a couple too many close games. And Jeff Driskel ain’t saving them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 10
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-4)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Nick Foles threw eight passes (with a touchdown) in week one before breaking his left clavicle bone and missing every snap since. But he’s back now, Saint Nick has returned to inherit his offence once again after that whole Minshew Mania thing. Which, look... Minshew was mostly great. 61.2% completion with 2285 yards and 13 TDs to just 4 INTs... but they’re paying Nick Foles a lot of money and they owe it to him to see what this team looks like with him in charge. If it doesn’t work then difficult decisions will be made. But at the very least they’ve got some lovely trade bait in Minshew. Foles was the guy they committed to though and with this team at 4-5 it’s not like you can say they bossed the show without him. There’s no scandal here.
On the other side of this equation we might have a quarterback crisis though. I thought Brian Hoyer would be good enough to carry the load while Jacoby Brissett was out but oh boy was I wrong about that one. One bad game does not a bad quarterback make however there’s not really any excuse for losing to the Miami Dolphins like that. Jacoby Brissett’s injury isn’t as bad as feared and he should be back this week but that loss last time out is brutal for a team on the edges of that playoff picture. I suspect they win this one with Brissett back taking snaps but they’re going to have to do the same away to the Texans next time too or else that Miami loss is gonna haunt them all offseason.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 2
Buffalo Bills (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Surely not three in a row. Surely not.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 9
Houston Texans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Not sure what’s going on with the editing on that clip but that touchdown run, with that swivel cut, is one of the most incredible things I’ve ever seen on an NFL field. Now, take a peek at rugby union and league in this part of the world and we see those all the time – this ain’t nothing but a bit of Joe Rokocoko magic – but for an NFL quarterback to be able to move so elusively at such speed against guys who are literally going to ram their helmets into his flesh at max power if they get half a chance, was electrifying. This guy is something else. No, he hasn’t done enough to overtake Russell Wilson in the MVP stakes just yet but he’s the only other person in the conversation right now.
DeSean Watson is also on that top tier list of Must Watch Players who if you have the opportunity, you focus specifically on them and what they can do. Watto makes at least one play every week that is jaw-dropping. I’m sure I’ll miss a few so don’t think of this list as complete in any way but off the top of my head...
THE WILDCARD’S MUST WATCH PLAYERS LIST
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
DeSean Watson
Dalvin Cook
Khalil Mack
Russell Wilson
Saquon Barkley
Odell Beckham Jr
Anyone with the last name Watt or Bosa
Michael Thomas
... I dunno, this list is getting silly because I don’t know whether to just list the best players or guys with flaws but who make incredible plays and basically I’m getting bored of researching it but we all have those favourite players who capture our attention more than most.
Massive game this one. The Ravens have been living in the spotlight after chasing a win over the Patriots with a hiding dished out to the Bengals. But they smashed the Dolphins too in week one, they’ve been dealing to the worst teams all season so nothing new there. Like, give Lamar Jackson all the credit he deserves for taking down a Bill Belichick team but dude come on... the Bengals suck and that was a walk in the park. Joe Rokocoko moves aside. Deal in the same numbers against Houston though and now we’re talking. I might have to tell my buy Russell Wilson to step it up after that.
The AFC is getting sweaty. There are nine teams between 4-6 wins who are all feasibly still in the hunt and even the Broncos might not be out of the mix at three wins back on the Chiefs in that division. It’s too early to start pondering on wildcard spots but considering every division has at least two 5+ win teams you can safely assume that it’s a wide open field. The Patriots should be okay from here and the Ravens or Chiefs could join them in the first round bye with a strong run home. Everything else, your guess is as good as mine which is as good as the best bet of a street-corner wino.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 3
Denver Broncos (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (7-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
I don’t really want to think about the Vikings after what happened last week. On a grand scale of all Cowboys fans I’m probably more on the side of supporting Jason Garrett, who I think is a very competent coach in all aspects that don’t include game strategy and play calling (which is a substantial list, to be honest, people always ignore the six days a week spent preparing for games and maintaining a winning and respectful culture). But I already said there’s no forgiving that loss and I stand by that claim even all this many words later.
Kirk Cousins has now improved to 7-13 in late kickoffs and he’s 3-10 in afternoon games in his career. Including 0-7 in MNF games. He played really well in that one again but honestly it was there for the taking and I’m still extremely upset at the moronic idea to call two rush plays in a row in that situation. Dallas had 50 rushing yards on the entire bloody night. Dammit.
Oh but I will take the requisite opportunity to remind you that Dalvin Cook might be the best running back in the entire sport. He’s undoubtedly top five.
(McCaffrey will join him in that latter stat this week though)
Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 7
New York Jets (2-7) at Washington R*dskins (1-8)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Jets by 3
New Orleans Saints (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Big question here is was that Saints defeat against Atlanta a sign of the decline or just a one-off wonk game? Every team is allowed one excusable defeat throughout the season, that’s just an NFL writer’s rule. More than one and you’re in some trouble though. The Cowboys have four defeats for example and the Jets defeat was probably a wonk one. The Vikings one I’m on the fence because while that was a massive choke from the coaching staff the Vikes are still decent. And losing to the Saints and Packers ain’t no thing. The Rams have been blown out by the Buccs which is definitely a wonk. Losing to the Seahawks, Niners, and Steelers though? Hmm... maybe the Steelers. The Colts had a wonk against the Fins last week. And have lost to the Chargers, Raiders, and Steelers. That’s very close. I could go on.
Anyway, the Saints are fine on the face of it. They’ve beaten the Seahawks already and will face the 49ers in early December so even with their six-game win streak busted they’ve still got it all in their own hands and if they win out they will be the number one seed in the NFC. But they won’t win much if they block like they did last week. Guard Andrus Peat is out for six weeks now having had surgery on a broken arm and he’s merely the latest in a line of injuries that this team has had to deal with. Teddy Bridgewater filled in beautifully for Drew Brees for five starts but overall this team just doesn’t have a massive amount of depth. There’s a big worry if Marshon Lattimore misses this game as he’s in doubt to.
I’ll also add that Alvin Kamara isn’t exactly living up to his stature yet. This guy was incredible his first two seasons, getting more than 1500 yards from scrimmage in each. This year I know he’s missed two games with that ankle injury but he’s only had one game with 70 rush yards or more and none over 100 while he’s averaging career lows in yards per reception. He has two total touchdowns. This isn’t a massive problem since a lot of it’s simply because Drew Brees missed time. I’m just pointing out that the bigger role Kamara has in this offence from now on the better and if he gets that then there you go.
One the other side of the coin, however...
New Orleans Saints: “receiver Michael Thomas continued his assault on the NFL record books. His 13 catches for 152 yards pushed him past 400 career receptions; he caught 400 passes faster (56 games) than anyone else in NFL history. Also, with 86 catches through nine games, he’s on pace for 153 this season, which is 10 more than the NFL single-season record.”
For now I’m sticking with last week being a wonk game. But there’s definitely a path down which that isn’t true and the Saints can’t overcome the pressure on their depth. No dramas yet though. That’s for when the second wonk defeat happens.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 7
Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1)
Monday 10.05am NZT
Pretty self explanatory, really.
Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 12
Cincinnati Bengals (0-9) at Oakland Raiders (5-4)
Monday 10.25am NZT
The Oakland Raider are 5-4 and I haven’t picked them to win a single game this season so a homer against the Bengals is about the right time to rectify that oversight. They have the Jets next week too so they might* even get a bit of an encore pick.
*will definitely
The funny thing about Derek Carr is that he’s actually playing better now than he did in that 2016 season when people overreacted and decided he was this burgeoning superstar (I was a bit on that bandwagon too, have to admit – though I still give him credit even in the two dud years that followed). But people have done that typical American/NFL thing of overreacting to the overreaction, overcorrecting it you could say, and have decided that he’s useless and aren’t noticing.
Carr in 2016: 63.8% COMP | 262.5 Y/Gm | 28 TD | 6 INT | 96.7 RATE | 7.5 AY/A
Carr in 2019: 70.8% COMP | 244.7 Y/Gm | 14 TD | 4 INT | 104.4 RATE | 8.2 AY/A
He played 15 games in 2016 and has played 9 so far in 2019.
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 14
New England Patriots (8-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Already wrote about the Eagles and their little scrap with the Cowboys, it’s been a stupid race for that NFC East title but the fun part of that is whoever misses out won’t be getting a wildcard. They’re two games out and each has a couple more defeats on the way – like, neither the Cowboys nor Eagles are winning out from here or even getting close. If one of them gets to 10 wins I’ll be stunned. It’s not like the talent isn’t there but you know what these two teams have been like.
Hey look it’s a replay of Superb Bowl 52! Crazy that this was only the season before last, so much has changed since then... although not for the Patriots. Same old same old for them and one of those trends is winning games after byes. The Eagles are also coming off their bye week but the Pats have won 13 of their last 16 games after the week off. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady tend to make use of the extra time to prepare. If that’s not enough for you then the Pats also don’t lose twice in a row very often. It happened two times last season, never in 2017 or 2016, twice in 2015 (though each time included an overtime game), none in 2014 or 2013, once in 2012, once in 2011, never in 2010... not including playoffs they’re 22-6 over the last ten years after a loss.
It’s not like the Pats are unstoppable. It’s not like the Eagles aren’t capable of beating them. It’s not like I won’t probably pick the Cowboys to beat the Pats next week and a part of me will actually believe it possible. But this is just bad timing for Philly, sorry lads.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 9
Chicago Bears (4-5) at Los Angeles Rams (5-4)
Monday 2.20pm NZT
Just think, before the season this was a really exciting and fascinating game.
Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 3
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6)
Tuesday 2.15pm NZT
Patrick Mahomes isn’t even fully healthy and he’s making plays like this. He’s only going to get fitter, he’s only going to make more of these beautifully unique passes that only he is capable of.
Okay, the Chiefs lost to the Titans last week. It happens. This wasn’t even a wonk game though it was just a freak set of circumstances:
Patrick Mahomes was coming back from injury and not quite at his best (and still threw 446 yards with 3 touchdowns), forced to settle for five field goal attempts
Ryan Tannehill was inexplicably awesome, hitting 13 of 19 passes with a couple scores and some really tough completions in there too
Tennessee scored a 53 yard fumble return touchdown to take the lead in the second quarter
The Chiefs absolutely cocked up a punt attempt with 1:27 to play and the lead, which saw the punter charged with intentional grounding and Tannehill led the Titans for a TD with a 2PAT in four subsequent plays
The Chiefs still got into position for a 52 yard attempt to take it to overtime but Harrison Butker’s field goal was blocked
I guess what I’m saying is that the Chiefs are going to beat the Chargers... although not a fan of how they had Derrick Henry run all over them in that game and Melvin Gordon, to his credit, has played really well the last two games. There’s your gameplan, LAC. Bags not being the one to tell Philip Rivers.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 7
BYE: Seattle Seahawks (8-2), Tennessee Titans (5-5), New York Giants (2-8) & Green Bay Packers (8-2)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. He was born under a bad sign, been down since he began to crawl. If it wasn’t for bad luck he wouldn’t have no luck at all.
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