The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 12
Last Week: 12-2
Season: 101-60-1
Indianapolis Colts (6-4) at Houston Texans (6-4)
Friday 2.20pm NZT
Thursday night games can get pretty mental as the short week of preparation wreaks havoc on coaches and players. To be honest these games shouldn’t even exist, they’re only there for extra primetime telly spots and to have one game so far out of sync with the rest of the round is actually kinda dangerous for players’ recovery, let alone how silly it is for fans. But this game doesn’t have the choice of being mental because it features two 6-4 teams tied for the top of their division. The Colts won by a touchdown the last time they played but that was the Texans’ only loss from within the division so far and they have a better conference record so chances are this game decides who has the tiebreaker between the pair and if those aren’t serious ramifications then I don’t know what serious ramifications are. I s’pose the issue there is in how much the word ‘serious’ can ever be applied to a game for grown men involving organised violence... but we’ll talk about Myles Garrett later.
Incredible stat from Deshaun Watson after last week. He’s started 32 regular season games in his career now, winning 20 of them, and in his 12 losses he’d never gone down by more than a touchdown until the Ravens blew him out 41-7 a few days back (in fact this was his worst defeat since High School). There was an eight-point loss to Kansas City in 2017 in there but two-point conversions are always possible. Not including his career debut in which he didn’t start but threw 23 passes after he subbed in at half-time for an ineffective Tom Savage (is their any other kind!?) in a 29-7 loss. Also not including his lone playoff appearance when he threw 29/49 for 235 yards with a score and a pick... against these Indianapolis Colts back in January.
Deshaun Watson vs the Colts:
Wk 4 2018 | W 37-34 | 29/42 for 375 YDS with 2 TD & 1 INT (102.8 RATE)
Wk 14 2018 | L 24-21 | 27/38 for 267 YDS with 1 TD & 0 INT (99.3 RATE)
WC Round 2019 | L 21-7 | 29/49 for 235 YDS with 1 TD & 1 INT (69.7 RATE)
Wk 7 2019 | L 30-23 | 23/34 for 308 YDS with 1 TD & 2 INT (81.5 RATE)
He also had a rushing touchdown in that lone win, which came in overtime with Watto leading the team to two field goals in bonus footy after Andrew Luck had thrown a touchdown and a 2PAT in the final minute of regulation to take it into extras and then Adam Vinatieri had knocked a field goal over on the Colts’ first drive leaving Houston needing to respond. So, yeah, he’s had his golden moments against the Colts even if his overall record against them isn’t that flash. 20 wins from 32 starts but he’s 1-2 against Indy with a playoff defeat as well. He’s also been sacked at least three times in each of those games. Aaaand he’s gonna be playing on a sore ankle here.
Speaking of QB injuries, the Colts looked muuuuch better with Jacoby Brissett back as they strolled to a comfortable win over Jacksonville, scoring 31 unanswered points from late in the first quarter to early in the fourth. Brissett didn’t have to do much though, only throwing 148 yards (1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rush TD) as they got 100+ rushing days from both Jonathan Williams and Marlon Mack. The Texans have a way of keeping teams from favouring the run though... and that way is their poor pass coverage which has given up the fourth most yards through the air in 2019. One of my tendencies is to lean towards the better quarterback when it’s a close contest and I think that’s a decent enough rule to apply here too. But this is a genuinely funky game that could take some wild swings along the way with some huge implications. Pity they can’t play it on a Saturday or Sunday when the players are rested properly.
Big churs to Quentin Nelson. His touchdown didn’t count but the keg stand celebration will live on in our hearts for many years...
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 6
Denver Broncos (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Denver Broncos were up 20-0 at half-time against the Minnesota Vikings. They were up 23-7 as the fourth quarter got underway. The Vikings had the ball on the drive at that moment but a healthy lead all the same, the kind of lead that normally leads to a victory. But not for this team.
First Dalvin Cook scored a three yard run, with Kirk Cousins missing Cook on a 2PAT to make it 23-13
Then the Broncos went backwards on a Third & 1 to have to punt, three and out
Three plays later Cousins hit Steffon Diggs for a 54 yard score, making it 23-20 only five minutes into the fourth
Denver managed to get a first down this time, as Courtland Sutton hauled in a 43 yard completion... but Brandon McManus missed a 43 yard field goal attempt
Kirk Cousins to Kyle Rudolph, 32 yards for the touchdown, Minnesota are in the lead and there’s still six minutes remaining
Denver then held possession for the entire rest of the game, running getting 56 yards from 19 plays which included eight incomplete passes, a sack, and a failed pass interference challenge – Allen converted with his legs on a fourth & one but couldn’t score in three attempts from four yards out
Even for the Broncos this was an impressive late choke. There was some controversy late on with two of those last three passes clearly deserving of pass interference (or at least the blatant face mask on that second one). But it’s been five years since a team last lost after leading by 20+ at the half and the Broncos have nobody but themselves to blame for all this. Losing close games is kind of their thing, you can add this one to three games this season in which late field goals in the last 30 seconds of games from their opponents swing the result in favour of a Broncos loss.
And this week they face a Buffalo Bills team that has specialised in winning close games. He’s hardly playing flawless footy all of a sudden but Josh Allen does have 8 TD (plus four more rushing) and 0 INT in his last five starts and combined with a strong rush game, a fantastic defensive secondary, and some pass rush this Bills team is going to force the mistakes they need out of weaker teams to win. Which is probably gonna take them to the playoffs.... where they’ll lose in the first round but it’s worth it just to get there. Funny story...
Teams the Bills have beaten: Jets (3-7), Giants (2-8), Bengals (0-10), Titans (5-5), Dolphins x2 (2-8) & R*dskins (1-9)
Teams the Bills have lost to: Patriots (9-1), Eagles (5-5) & Browns (4-6)
Pretty obvious trend there in beating worse teams, losing to better teams. That Titans win was away but it was also against Marcus Mariota who would soon be benched while we all know the Eagles and Browns have more talent than their records suggest, but injuries for Philly and idiocy for Cleveland have cost them Ws. Unfortunately for Denver, they fall in the worse teams column.
Wildcard’s Pick: Bills by 2, probably with a last second field goal
New York Giants (2-8) at Chicago Bears (4-6)
Monday 7.00am NZT
POOR MITCH
Poor Mitch, they thought you were good but it turns out you suck, Poor Mitch
Poor Mitch, could have had Pat or Deshaun but took you, Poor Mitch
Poor Mitch, the Bears traded up but you’re dragging them down, Poor Mitch
Poor Mitch, now your hip’s feeling sore but they need you some more, Poor Mitch
Poor Mitch, Chase Daniel’s no smarter so you’re stuck as starter, Poor Mitch
Wildcard’s Pick: Bears by 7
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-10)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 7
Miami Dolphins (2-8) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)
Monday 7.00am NZT
File that under things I never ever wanted to hear a commentator say. Not even in a Miami home game is this acceptable... although a Miami home game is as close to where it might be acceptable as there is, to be fair.
Right so Myles Garrett did a dumb thing? Sure, and he’s been punished for it. But I just found the outrage over that incident to be so hilarious, like we freak out over a fella swinging a helmet like that but people consistently ignore the hundred other times a helmet is smashed into somebody, usually with much more force, during the game while said helmet is still attached to the fella’s head. Tackling technique in the NFL is pretty bad and the violence that happens within the rules of the game can be incredibly reckless and horrific but nah it’s when a bloke steps outside those realms of organised carnage that people get so upset. Please, spare me the double standard. I notice Damarious Randall wasn’t suspended for the helmet to helmet clash that instigated the whole kerfuffle.
There seems to be a whole morality issue with Garrett overstepping the bounds of acceptable violence here, that’s the thing which has really offended people. That he would flaunt the boundaries of what’s allowed and not allowed like that is sort of like crossing a psychic barrier... like if this is something he would stoop to then what else might he do next? In reality it’s just a dude losing his rag. Who might have been kicked in the groin just before. Who has done something awful and been justly punished for it. But until the NFL take seriously the dirty plays that happen within the realms of the game itself then it’s hard to do anything else but look at the rage this has inspired and simply laugh. It’s all a game. All of this. We’re playing a game right now by talking about this as if it’s anything other than theatre... albeit theatre with real life consequences. Hey, all the world’s a stage.
Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Look, they repeated the dose. The Falcons are good now and we all just have to accept it, throw away whatever ideas you had about this team over the first half of the season because there’s a new defensive playcaller in town and suddenly this Falcons D has remembered what they do for a living... which in turn has exposed Matt Ryan to the success he should have been having all along because he’s been playing well from day one, even with injuries getting in the way.
ESPN: “The Falcons' defense looks like a totally different unit from the one that struggled through most of the season's first half and it has sparked a dramatic turnaround, resulting in a two-game win streak and 2-0 start in the NFC South. The defense hasn't allowed a touchdown since the end of the second quarter against Seattle (Week 8), keeping both New Orleans and Carolina out of the end zone. In the past three games, the Falcons have recorded 13 sacks, 25 quarterback hits and four interceptions.”
Clearly I have no choice but to jump on this bandwagon. A defence that’s rediscovered the art of the pass rush playing against Jameis Winston who just threw four picks last week which was his fifth multi-interception game of the year which is two more than he has games without a pick and his 18 for 2019 (one more and he’s got himself a documentary series, right?) is the worst mark in the NFL... yeah that’s not one I feel I need to spend too much time thinking about.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 10
Carolina Panthers (5-5) at New Orleans Saints (8-2)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Kyle Allen’s first four starts for the Panthers:
4-0 W/L | 65.6% COMP | 901 YDS | 7 TD | 0 INT | 8.53 AY/A | 10 SACKS | 106.6 RATE
Kyle Allen’s last four starts for the Panthers:
1-3 W/L | 58.6% COMP | 1022 YDS | 3 TD | 9 INT | 4.18 AY/A | 18 SACKS | 60.3 RATE
Remember when people were trying to say he had a chance to push Cam Newton out of Carolina? God, people are stupid sometimes.
Anyway, Michael Thomas has 94 catches for 1141 yards so far this year, which is already a great season and he still has six more games to play. The all-time record for catches in a season is 143 for Marvin Harrison and he’s on pace to beat that. He’s also on pace for the second most receiving yardage in a season, behind Calvin Johnson (1964) and Julio Jones (1871). This guy stepped into the league and was immediately a top tier receiver, the only man in history to catch at least 90 passes in his first four seasons.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 9
Seattle Seahawks (8-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Oh mate I cannot believe I hadn’t seen that video before. And Nelson Agholor drops a lot of catches. He’s single-handedly (well, two hands... and also his helmet) cost the Eagles some serious opportunities this season and dropping the touchdown that would have taken that Patriots game to OT is as bad as it gets. On behalf of Cowboys Nation I’d really like to buy the fella a beverage to say thanks... but he’d only spill it so what’s the point?
By the way, incredible throw by Carson Wentz there. That man is not the problem.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 3
Detroit Lions (3-6-1) at Washington R*dskins (1-9)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Detroit Lions have held a lead in every single game in 2019. This is a team that has three wins from ten games and they’ve been leading in every single game. There are two other teams who have also held a lead in every single game and they’re the 49ers and Chiefs, who are each cruising towards the playoffs. The Lions have only lost one game by double figures, they have lost six of their last seven games, Matt Stafford is injured and in doubt once again... and I’m still picking them to win because the Skins are a mess.
Of course, there are worse things in the world than being a Lions fan...
Nah, jokes, coz the Chargers don’t actually have any fans.
The Skins are a mess... but we do have to remember they’re a mess who are without their starting quarterback in Alex Smith. He’s a bit of the forgotten guy after that horrible injury a year ago and I’d highly recommend watching this quick video from his wife to be reminded about the human toll of injuries in professional sport. We see the guts and the glory out there on the field but the hardest yards happen behind closed doors without the constant chatter of the NFL media and NFL fandom.
Wildcard’s Pick: Lions by 10
Oakland Raiders (6-4) at New York Jets (3-7)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Fair play to them, the Raiders also have five picks in the top ninety for the 2020 draft too. With Derek Carr playing the best stuff of his career right now and that young defence constantly playing above themselves and with Josh Jacobs already looking like one of the better running backs in the league... gotta say they’re pretty impressive. Not gonna completely backtrack on the Jon Gruden is a nutcase idea but GM Mike Maycock is knocking this shit out of the park, dude.
Clelin Ferrell (DE) – Started mud but has emerged in recent weeks as a genuine pass rush force.
Josh Jacobs (RB) – Rookie of the Year candidate who’ll top 1000 rush yards in his eleventh game this week and also has 17 catches as well as 7 rush scores.
Johnathan Abram (S) – Busted a shoulder in week one so out for the season but had already played well enough in preseason to earn a starting gig.
Trayvon Mullen (CB) – Playing a prominent role busting up passes on the regular.
Maxx Crosby (DE) – Already has 6.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 11 quarterback hits... damn.
Those were their five top picks in this year’s class and that’s not including some quality from wide receiver Hunter Renfrow as well. Foster Moreau’s snagged some catches too, the tight end. That’s an insanely good haul right there and, who knew it, you add heaps of talent to a team and it gets a lot better. I’ve officially stopped sleeping on the Raiders.
Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 12
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (5-5)
Monday 10.05am NZT
How about the Titans with the David Berman tribute the other week? Beautiful scenes. I’m still trying to bring myself to listen to the devastating heaviness of that Purple Mountains record again lately but it’s an absolute lock for my top ten of the year. Haven’t really thought about that list too much yet but Tyler, The Creator is definitely gonna be on it. As is that Stef Chura album. But yeah gotta get thinking on that one.
Now, I don’t wanna overreact to things here... but Ryan Tannehill has seriously upgraded this Titans offence. He’s completing at 71.3% with twice as many touchdowns as picks and with a 3-1 record in his four starts, including wins over Philip Rivers and Patrick Mahomes, and fair play to him because this is a guy whose career had been in a tricky place when the Dolphins moved on from him, never having reached his potential largely thanks to injuries. But a change of scenery can do wonders and the Titans are a better team with Tannehill starting over Marcus Mariota. Shoulda done it sooner.
Also thriving under Tannehill is a fella called Jonnu Smith who has 16 catches and 190 yards in the last four games . The tight end had six catches in the first six games and was barely even a factor in the offence and under Tannehill he’s turned into a key dude, those 16/190 numbers lead the team in the last four games. I guess they got familiar working on scout teams at the start of the season or whatever. I watched that game against KCC and I still didn’t recognise this fella’s name but okay, gotta recognise the emerging blokes too.
Jury’s still out on Nick Foles as he had a tough one last week. If you take out a nice touchdown drive on the Jags’ final possession when they were already down 24 points with no hope of a comeback – then we were looking at less than two hundy yards with one score. Give the fella some time wiht the offence though.
Ah but quarterbacks aside, I’m really here for that Leonard Fournette versus Derrick Henry scrap. Fournette only had eight carries last week and Doug Marrone has already apologised for that discrepancy so fire it up, folks.
Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3
Dallas Cowboys (6-4) at New England Patriots (9-1)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Oh man, this ain’t fair.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 1
Green Bay Packers (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (9-1)
Monday 2.20pm NZT
Damn, there are some solid games this week. This one is right up there, while the Thursday and Monday night games should both be crackers too... unless Lamar Jackson blows the Rams out on the road which is always possible. Dallas against the Patties. Philly against Seattle. This is going to be a belter of a week. For once all the mud games are taken care of in the early kickoffs.
Beautiful to see George Kittle back in training, hopefully he’s able to go this week as without his security blanket presence following an injury in the first game against the Cardies and that’s led to two very close wins over Arizona bookending an overtime defeat to the Seahawks. You’re allowed to grind them out against divisional rivals, no dramas there, but San Fran have been notably weaker on offence without him because it’s not just his team-leading receptions and receiving yards but it’s more importantly his blocking too. The Niners have had the best rushing game all season but the two weeks he’s missed they’ve averaged just 2.8 yards per carry.
After this game the Niners face the Ravens and Saints on the road. Hey, they had an easy run of fixtures at the start and this is what happens. Backloading the schedule, baby. When you’re already 9-1 it doesn’t matter so much and if they can win even only one of these next three then they’ll still be well in the hunt for that top seed. And, like, if you wanna win a top seed you probably oughta back yourself to beat any team out there so can’t complain.
If Kittle’s presence (assuming he plays, he’s still considered a game-time decision) is enough to get the Niners rushing with dominance again then we’re in for a curious battle against a Packers team that is 27th out of 32 teams in yards allowed per rush on defence. It’s also a game that’ll have big playoff implications because GBP have the Giants and R*dskins their next two games. A win here and they’re odds on to be 11-2 before they close with a game each against their three divisional rivals who Aaron Rodgers has traditionally bossed his whole career. This is honestly an amazing game, gimme that playoff atmosphere please.
Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 3
Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at Los Angeles Rams (6-4)
Tuesday 2.15pm NZT
Mmmm yes, that’s the one.
Sneaky old Lamar too, having another blinder of a game while Russell Wilson was on his bye and unable to respond, thus hogging all the MVP yarns for the week. I mean, I’m not quite ready to flip to Jackson here and I still think there’s more historical value to rewarding Wilson at this stage of his career, thinking of legacies and all that, but of course we can’t get sympathetic with these things. People are definitely giving Jackson a lot of credit for being fresh and exciting and new whereas Wilson has been a proven elite guy for multiple years... but there’s still six more weeks so we’ll see what happens. Either way this is a rarity for the NFL where the MVP title is genuinely up for grabs going into the latter stages of the season and that’s something to celebrate.
Russell Wilson – 68.5% COMP | 2737 YDS | 23 TD | 2 INT | 114.9 RATE | 5 GWD
Lamar Jackson – 66.3% COMP | 2258 YDS | 19 TD | 5 INT | 106.3 RATE | 781 RUSH YDS | 6 RUSH TD
Dak Prescott – 67.7% COMP | 3221 YDS | 21 TD | 9 INT | 104.1 RATE | 3 RUSH TD
Michael Thomas – 94 REC | 1141 REC YDS | 5 TD
Aaron Rodgers – 64.8% COMP | 2718 YDS | 17 TD | 2 INT | 102.7 RATE
Christian McCaffrey – 1059 RUSH YDS | 5.3 Y/ATT | 517 REC YDS | 8.8 Y/REC | 14 TD
Deshaun Watson - 69.5% COMP | 2601 YDS | 18 TD | 6 INT | 103.3 RATE
Dalvin Cook – 1017 RUSH YDS | 4.8 Y/ATT | 455 REC YDS | 10.1 Y/REC | 11 TD
I think that’s about where we’re at. Realistically it’s a two horse race but them other folks deserve the buzz too. If you wanna round it out to an even ten then add in Patrick Mahomes and the entire Patriots defence. Mahomes would be top five if he hadn’t been injured and if he didn’t still look injured, and with a couple more weeks of wins he might well be top five again.
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 7
BYE: Arizona Cardinals (3-7-1), Kansas City Chiefs (7-4), Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) & Minnesota Vikings (8-3)
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. And if you’ll excuse him now he’s off to watch some cricket.
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