The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 15

Last Week: 11-5

Season: 132-75-1

New York Jets (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (11-2)

Friday at 2.20pm NZT

The Bills had a genuine chance to beat the Ravens last week. They have one of the rare defences that’s got the talent and the athleticism to contain Lamar Jackson and sure enough he was limited to just 40 yards on 11 carries, which is his worst total yardage and worst yards per attempt since that opening game of the season, the rout of Miami, where they conspicuously withheld his running game and hustled the entire rest of the league with a perfect passer rating to establish that this fella is more than a one tool sort. The Bills also picked him off for LJ’s first interception after seven games without one, all wins.

But the Bills couldn’t take advantage of that with Josh Allen at QB so never mind. There’s an outline there for other teams to follow in the playoffs but the Jets can’t do it and neither will the Browns be able to next week and doubts are out about the Steelers in week 17. We’re looking at a top seed for the Ravens from this point on, amigos.

Lamar Jackson 2019 Rushing Yards: 1017

Michael Vick 2006 Rushing Yards: 1039

So that’s a record that’s going to be broken on Friday arvo. What’s crazy about that is not just that Jacko’s got room to beat the all time record by in excess of like two hundred yards but how about when you compare the passing stats from those seasons, yikes...

Lamar Jackson 2019: 66.3% COMP | 2677 YDS | 28 TD | 6 INT | 109.2 RATE

Michael Vick 2006: 52.6% COMP | 2474 YDS | 20 TD | 13 INT | 75.7 RATE

And Jackson still has three more weeks to go. Two of them pretty comfortable matchups (although he threw three of his six picks against the Steelers a while back... though in week 17 and the Ravens surging towards a top seed he might not even play that one – the Ravens are two games clear of everyone in the AFC not named New England and the Pats are unlikely to win all three the way they’re playing on offence at the moment).

Once again, more evidence that Adam Gase is holding Le’Veon Bell back. Sidelined with flu all week, he was ruled out of the game and told to stay away from the team hotel because of contagiousness but he went bowling the night before the game and rolled a personal best. Which naturally Adam Gase had a moan about it being a bad look even though the real bad look is signing an all-pro running back and then using him in such a ridiculous way that he hasn’t run for more than 70 yards all season. Pretty sure it’s way easier to bowl while sick than to run at an NFL defensive line twenty times while sick. Typical New York media blowing it out of proportion too. Free Le’Veon!

Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by a million

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Green Bay Packers (10-3)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Tell you what, my ongoing misery at the inconceivable underachievements of the Dallas Cowboys are one thing but Mitch Trubisky looks like a different quarterback when he’s incorporating his legs into the equation. The bro can run and with his wonky are the more he brings that running ability into the mix, the better his passing looks are going to get as teams know they can’t just throw big pressure at him or do the opposite and mark up on his receivers. It gives the Bears options on offence and what we saw in that game, disgusting Dallas performance aside, was probably the closest the Bears have come to recreating what they did last year.

Haaaaving said that, they now face the Packers on the road with Aaron Rodgers, then host the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, before travelling to face the Vikings and Kirk Cousins (in an early kickoff, which negates Cousins’ natural aversion to playing well in televised contests/primetime). The Bears are three games back on the Packers for first in the NFC North and are two games back on the Vikings for the second wildcard spot. It’s all too little, too late for Matt Nagy and his crew. But hey at least they won’t look for a new quarterback in the offseason now which is probably good news for every single team in the NFC North.

Among many non-Rodgers reasons why the Packers are in the hunt for a first round bye are their two 27 year old linebackers with the same last name: Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith. In 13 games, each of them has double figure sacks. Only 11 men have double digit sacks this season, and these two are the only teammates from amongst that list (although the Steelers have TJ Watt with 12.5 and Bud Dupree with 9.5... I’ve mentioned how that Steelers defence has turned into a top level unit before). Shaq Barrett from TBB leads the way with 15.0 btw... and also leads the way with 6 fumbles forced (tied with Chandler Jones of Arizona who is one full sack behind him. DPOY frontrunner right there... let’s come back to him later).

Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 10

New England Patriots (10-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-12)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Ahahahahaha.

Ahahahahahaahahaha.

No, I’m sorry, I’ll compose myself now. So the New England Patriots are embroiled in yet another scandal aye? Spygate and Deflategate and now Spygate Two and with plenty of minor indiscretions in between. I mean, it hardly diminishes their achievements but they have always been a bunch of dodgy bugger and it’s always nice for the rest of us to be able to clutch at some straws. Plus it’s hilarious to see the Bostonites scramble to pardon every indiscretion, claiming conspiracies and everything. Silly people, we don’t actually care. It’s expected of this team at this point.

What happened is that a Patriots team employee was caught taping on the Bengals sideline during their game last week. They claimed it was for a video feature which they had permission from the Clevaland Browns (as the home team) to be filming there. They also claimed that this media side of the franchise operates independently of the football team. But this particular footage was an extended take of that sideline exclusively. Clearly more than they needed for background cuts, clearly something a little more dastardly. And the Bengals took exception to that, particularly when the Patriots’ explanation claimed they were focussing on an advanced scout... being as the Bengals have never heard of such a person. Lol, jokes.

Also this is remarkably similar to what they said after the first Spygate. The allegations there was that they’d use excuses about media people, independents from Kraft Productions or Patriots TV, to gain access to other teams and film things for scouting purposes. They even used that literal example of following an advance scout around one time. Hilariously, this is what Bill Belichick said after that snap...

“It was wrong. We were disciplined for it. That’s it. We never did it again. We’re never going to do it again. And anything else that’s close, we’re not going to do it either.”

Well that was clearly a lie.

What I don’t understand is why the Patriots felt the need to spy on the Bengals at all considering they’re a 1-12 team with very little hope of doing anything against the Patriots defence... unless they’ve simply been doing this every week for every opponent and the Bengals are the first to catch them in the act. Dodgy bastards.

Wildcard’s Pick: Pats by 10

Seattle Seahawks (10-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Things really went off the rails for the Panthers. That’s five defeats in a row, with an interim coach in charge and a backup quarterback, and this season is dead. Even Christian McCaffrey has slowed down, his last three games he’s only gotten 161 rush yards at 3.43 Y/A with one touchdown. This a guy who scored a rushing TD in eight of the first nine games of the season and once had 176 rush yards in a since game against the Jags. He’s still racking up the yardage thanks to his presence in the passing game with 33 catches in those three games but again with only one score. He’s been kept out of the endzone in consecutive games. Of course, the first half of the season was so dominant for him that he’s still leading the league in total scrimmage yards and total TDs.

Big opportunity for Russell Wilson here. Lamar Jackson has gained a comfortable lead in the MVP race but Wilson is the one man with a season strong enough to still catch him and over the next three weeks he plays this phoned-in Panthers team, a terrible Cardinals passing defence, and then a potential divisional clincher against the 49ers.

These are his numbers so far:

66.8% COMP | 3422 YDS | 26 TD | 5 INT | 8.9 AY/A | 107.5 RATE

And that’s with an NFL-leading five game winning drives. He’s been absolutely immense, every single game has like three mind-blowing passes. He has had a couple downer games by his standards recently, throwing a pick in each of the last four games, but a strong finish and there might still be some breath in this battle yet.

Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 7

Houston Texans (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (8-5)

Monday 7.00am NZT

As if Ryan Tannehill hadn’t been impressive enough since he took over the QB reins here, this is one of the best bloody tackles I’ve seen all season. There’s huge power in that shot but it’s not a reckless helmet blow, he uses his shoulder like a smart person.

It’s been fun watching him serve it up for the Titans too. He’s blasted this team straight back into the playoff mix with the best football of his whole career and finally justifying what I’ve been saying for so long which is that this dude is a genuinely talented quarterback who has been held back by unfortunate injuries and terrible coaching his whole career. Makes you wonder what other players might be capable of in different systems... I mean, Joe Flacco and Eli Manning have won Super Bowls so just think what other players could lead a team that far.

This is legitimately one of the most important games of the whole 2019 season. A win and the Texans’ playoff odds rise from 69% to 96% while the Titans drop from 64% to 32%. Meanwhile if the Titans win then their odds rise up to 82% and the Texans drop to 55%. Both are in the mix for wildcards as well so there’s nothing definitive here but considering they play each other in week 17 as well and could even meet in the playoffs too if things break right, this one is borderline must-watch. Especially since both these teams have been capable of playing some magnificent gridiron recently.

Also, shout out to this guy. Worthy a try, right?

Wildcard’s Pick: Titans by 3

Miami Dolphins (3-10) at New York Giants (2-11)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Damn, that’s kinda sad to be honest. Almost as sad as me having to cheer for Eli Manning to beat the Eagles last Tuesday, which was so sad that I couldn’t bring myself to watch the game which I’m incredibly relived over because it meant I missed the first half where Eli actually looked like he was gonna do it, up a couple TDs. Also sad is that Eli’s career win/loss record is now 116-117... although he should get the chance to even that out with Daniel Jones still hurt. If that’s the case then this should be his final start at home with the Giants so it should be a nice sentimental occasion, albeit an awkward one for a long-time franchise dude who knows full well that the organisation is done with him.

Wildcard’s Pick: Giants by 5

Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) at Washington R*dskins (3-10)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Help me Dwayne Haskins. You’re my only hope.

(Okay, not quite only but you’re one of them, at least)

((That meme’s just a Star Wars gag but thinking about it, it’s also the winner of the NFC East - IYKYK))

Wildcard’s Pick: Eh, can’t see it happening... Eagles by 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at Detroit Lions (3-9-1)

Monday 7.00am NZT

Here’s the thing about Shaq Barrett... he’s also a free agent at the end of this season. You don’t need me to tell you what that means for his prospective bank balance, mate if you’re looking for a cheeky investor for your half-baked startup idea then you could do a lot worse than bumping into Shaq Barrett for a chat... alternatively if he thinks your idea is dumb then you probably couldn’t do any worse than bumping into him. Me, I think capitalism is dumb so I don’t really care either way. But shout out to Shaq Barrett. He’s having a supreme season and he’s got an undrafted rookie quarterback on the cards this week.

Jameis Winston threw a career best 456 passing yards against the Colts last week, leading his team to victory with four TD passes and a rushing score. Winston being Winston though, he also threw three picks including a pick-six. I’ve made my feelings clear about this dude many times – you just can’t reliably win big games with a guy who makes so many mistakes. But I do have to sympathise with the glamorous upside he’s capable of as well.

Right now he leads the NFL with 23 interceptions. He’s also on pace to throw 5000 yards. The most relevant stat is that his team still has a losing record but only eight men have ever thrown for 5000 yards in a season before... although also only Eli Manning has thrown more INTs in a season this decade than JW in 2019 so riddle me that one. Mostly it’s just the same old Jameis – the highs are lovely, the lows are infuriating. And there’s not much in between. Whether Bruce Arians backs himself enough to iron out those mistakes or not is going to be a major storyline heading into 2020.

Wildcard’s Pick: Buccs by 8

Denver Broncos (5-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)

Monday 7.00am NZT

What a happy chappie. And so he should be, after dropping a major statement win over the Patriots at Foxborough. I didn’t pick them but I’m also not stunned (or in at all upset) about it. Look at the sheer joy on that man’s face! Well, joy by his standards. Still doesn’t make up for the time he said Mozart was a painter earlier in the season but he did just get a third career win over the only current coach with more NFL experience than him so that’s worth plenty. He’s 3-7 all time against Belichick in the regular season and 0-3 in the playoffs but a lot of those defeats have been close ones and of course it was a win over the Pats last season that proved the launching pad for Pat Mahomes’ MVP campaign. Add in that this was the first time ever that Tom Brady and Julian Edelman had lost a game at Foxborough when they’d both started and it snapped a 21-game home win streak for the Patriots and one more for you here Patrick Mahomes is the youngest QB to ever win against Bill Belichick in a Patriots home game. The Chiefs clinched their division with that win and it’s full steam ahead towards the playoffs now.

Curiously, the Patriots might still be second seed as things stand in the AFC but in their last five games they’ve barely scraped by the mess that is the Eagles and Cowboys and have lost to three fellow AFC playoff contenders: the Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs.

Speaking of beating decent AFC teams... Broncos rookie QB Drew Lock has started two games, completed at 72.7% with 5 TDs and 2 INTs, and has led his team to back to back wins over the Chargers and Texans. Yet another backup quarterback to do fine things in the Year of the Backup. Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen (at the start), Daniel Jones (for that one game), Duck Hodges, Dwayne Haskins. All we needed was some Blake Bortles and we’d be sweet.

Shout out to Locky though. He wasn’t even backup, he was third string. Brandon Allen got the go ahead of him after Joe Flacco went down. But the 42nd overall pick in what’s looking like a half-decent quarterback pool at the moment (led by Kyler Murray, of course) has stepped in and played really well so far. Good composure, solid arm strength, decent accuracy, good size. The numbers will dip and this week is a good chance for that as scoreboard pressure will probably be a big factor but so far so good. This is a team that’s been choking late leads all season because they don’t seem to have any structure. Under Lock they at least look like a functioning offence so far and that’s big praise for a young rookie.

The Broncos had not scored more than 24 points since week 7 of 2018. That’s 21 consecutive games. Last week they put 30 on in the first half against a probably playoff team.

Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 14

Cleveland Browns (6-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-9-1)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Odell Beckham Jr this season...

  • 7 catches for 71 yards vs TEN

  • 6 catches for 161 yards & 1 TD at NYJ

  • 6 catches for 56 yards vs LAR

  • 2 catches for 20 yards at BAL

  • 2 catches for 27 yards at SF49

  • 6 catches for 101 yards vs SEA

  • 5 catches for 52 yards at NE

  • 5 catches for 87 yards at DEN

  • 4 catches for 60 yards vs PIT

  • 6 catches for 84 yards & 1 TD vs MIA

  • 3 catches for 29 yards at PIT

  • 2 catches for 39 yards vs CIN

That’s a career-low 64.9 receiving yards per game, which is twenty full yards fewer than his previous worst in a completed season. He has two touchdowns and they came against the Jets and Dolphins. Beckham has started every game yet he’s 33rd in total receptions, 25th in total rec yards, 69th in yards per target, 46th in receptions per game, and 30th in receiving yards per game.

Some of the plays he’s made are proof that he’s no less an athlete than he was in New York, he’s just hampered by an error-laden quarterback and a terrible head coach. Which, like, if you’re another franchise watching this happen and there are rumours already that OBJ Is putting out feelers for other teams to trade for him... you’ve gotta be pretty fascinated by where things go from here.

Wildcard’s Pick: Browns by 6

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) at Oakland Raiders (6-7)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Jacksonville’s last five games:

  • Lost by 23 points to the Texans

  • Lost by 20 points to the Colts

  • Lost by 22 points to the Titans

  • Lost by 17 points to the Buccs

  • Lost by 35 points to the Chargers

Apparently they’re the first team for more than 30 years to lose by 17+ in five straight games. The Jags are already auditioning players for next season, that’s why Gardner Minshew’s taken over, and with Doug Marrone 99% guaranteed to be sacked at the end of the year they just have the feel of a team that’s quit. Barring a sudden resurgence of Minshew Mania, they’re unlikely to win another game this season considering they’re away in Atlanta after this and then home to the Colts – neither scary games but both teams that have at least shown some late-season fight (the Colts have lost five of their last six but only one loss was by more than three points).

Having said that, the Raiders’ recent history ain’t much better. In their last three they’ve done this:

  • Lost by 31 to the Jets

  • Lost by 31 to the Chiefs

  • Lost by 21 to the Titans

So, like, maybe not a game you necessarily need to whip up an alternative stream for. A bit crazy but the top receiver on the Raiders is tigth end Darren Waller by more than 350 yards. Tyrell Williams is their best wideout and he’s only caught 36 passes all season, that’s less than three a game. Derek Carr’s had some great games and some poor games this year but it’s important to remember that this offence was meant to be built around Antonio Brown until that dude just went bonkers and cut his hair like a lego piece then burnt his foot off in a cryogenic chamber or whatever and then had a moan about his helmet and then did some genuinely bad things afterwards in his dealings with people in his life and damn this season has gone so bloody fast but that AB drama feels like years ago now.

Wildcard’s Pick: Raiders by 6 because surely they can’t both lose

Minnesota Vikings (9-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)

Monday 10.05am NZT

Playoff machine time!

Hmm, some genuine funk in there. The way I’ve got it, the Titans vs Texans in week 17 is a playoff play-in game, as is the Cowboys vs Eagles in week 16, while the Seahawks and Niners in week 17 is for the top seed in the NFC... speaking of which how about a conference with FOUR teams with 13-3 records? That’s crazy. And so is the Rams getting to 10-6 and beating the Cowboys but still missing out on the playoffs to a Cowboys team that has two fewer wins thanks to the divisional thing... and of course Dallas at 8-8 getting to host a 13-3 49ers team is ridiculous. Divisions should matter but not this much. Over in the AFC there’s nothing much else going on but the Steelers getting into the playoffs with a third-stringer would be a huge achievement – Mike Tomlin Coach of the Year – and even after fiddling with a few scenarios there’s no real imaginable situation where the Titans and Texans can both make the playoffs and face each other (tiebreakers being what they are) and make it three matchups in the space of four weeks.

This is one extremely strange interaction... Philip Rivers doing his very loud trash talking thing and sounding kinda like a child with the whole ‘oh I will say it in your ear, because that’s what I do!’ thing, all the while Jacksonville defensive end Yannick Ngakoue stays remarkably polite and calm... then afterwards Rivers literally goes up and apologises to him for how he behaved. I don’t even have anything to add, just saying that this was weird is all I have.

Wildcard’s Pick: Vikings by 6

Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at San Francisco 49ers (11-2)

Monday 8.25am NZT

This man is the best tight end in the NFL. Rob Gronkowski has retired and George Kittle, with all due respect to Travis Kelce, has claimed his crown (actually Kelce probably had it last year). Kittle’s not as dynamic an option in the passing game as Gronk was but he’s not a million miles off and he’s also one of the very best blocking tight ends in the league as well. And this guy was a fifth round pick in 2017, hilariously. What an absolute beast and he should have another big one this week too.

As for the Niners, yeah boy. Their schedule started extremely soft, getting teams like the Steelers, Rams, and Panthers all at favourable times to make it even softer than it looks, but since then they’ve lost an overtime game to the Seahawks which could have easily gone the other way, smashed the Green Bay Packers by 29 points, run the Ravens closer than anybody has recently with a three-point loss, and now seen off the Saints in an absolute gun-slinging wild west shootout 48-46.

It doesn’t get much easier because the Falcons here are tracking much better than they were at the start of the year and the Rams seem to have come good too, they’re up next week, before they close away to the Seahawks which is probably a rock-paper-scissors for the NFC West title and thus the difference between a home playoff game and a road playoff game. But the last month or so has proved that these Niners are legit contenders. They can take the best teams. Their quarterback is making plays. They have a superb running game. Kyle Shanahan is a genius doing genius things, they’re brilliantly coached all the way across. This defence is incredibly tough to compete with.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s last three games (GB/BAL/NO):

72.4% COMP | 767 YDS | 7 TD | 1 INT | 11.34 AY/A | 129.7 RATE

Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 9

Los Angeles Rams (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7)

Monday 8.25am NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Rams by 3

Buffalo Bills (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)

Monday 2.20pm NZT

Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 3… but let the record know I’m wavering on this

Indianapolis Colts (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (10-3)

Tuesday 2.15pm NZT

In that classic shootout loss to the Niners, Michael Thomas had 11 catches for 134 yards. With a touchdown of course but that doesn’t matter as much as the other two. Both those records are still conveivably in the realms of possibility... especially those total receptions.

MICHAEL THOMAS IN 2019:

  • 121 receptions for 1434 rec yards – both leading the league by a mile

NFL SINGLE SEASON RECEPTIONS RECORD:

  1. Marvin Harrison (2002) – 143

  2. Antonio Brown (2015) – 136

  3. Julio Jones (2015) – 136

  4. Antonio Brown (2014) – 129

  5. Michael Thomas (2019) – 125

That’s happening. 19 catches in three games? Hell yeah he’s gonna do that. Breaking the receiving yards number is way harder because Calvin Johnson once hauled in 1964 in a single season and Thommo getting 531 yards in three games would be pure insanity if it were to happen. But if he gets a hundy yards on average, which is less than his per game average this year so a conservative estimate, then he’ll end up with 1734 which would be seventh all time. 1781 would match Isaac Bruce’s fifth place. Only Calvin Johnson (1964 in 2012), Julio Jones (1871 in 2015), Jerry Rice (1848 in 1995) and Antonio Brown (1834 in 2015) have ever caught 1800+ yards in a single year before and Thommo is very much in reach of that.

Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 10

The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. Sometimes when he gets to the end of another week’s long-arse NFL picks he can’t think of a single line to write for the fake bio gag at the end of it.

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