The Wildcard’s NFL Picks - Week 16
Last Week: 10-6
Season: 142-81-1
Houston Texans (9-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Sunday 7.00am NZT
Sing hallelujah and be merry dear reader because Thursday night footy is no more for the 2019 season – which is great news for players with niggling injuries not fancying a short turnaround and also for me because it gives me an extra day or so to write this bad boy which is never not a blessing. Busy times that we live in and all that.
The Texans bounced back big time with a 24-21 win over the Titans last week, giving them the upper hand in the AFC South and can clinch the division with a win here... damn the regular season’s almost over already. Yikes. Anyway, the Houston defence stepped up like they needed to but it was the three-pronged wideout attack of DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills, and Will Fuller that led the way with 14 catches between them, Hopkins bagging 119 yards, Fuller with 61 yards, and Stills with a couple scores. That’s the business right there but Stills and Fuller haven’t often been able to support Hopkins in this way because of injuries so get the three of them all healthy heading into the playoffs and that’s a scary proposition.
Also remember when they traded the draft pick farm for Laremy Tunsil? Well this has been one of the top offensive lines this season, doing almost exactly what they planned and protecting Deshaun Watson nicely. Watto’s still had his moments, a guy who holds onto the ball as much as he does is always going to, but the three games he’s been sacked six times in were all defeats (Saints, Panthers, Ravens) which seems like a pretty obvious formula right there. 39 sacks in 14 games is still waaaaay better than the NFL-leading 62 sacks he copped last year. That’s why they traded for Tunsil. Now Tunsil’s in the Pro Bowl (not that I care massively about Pro Bowl selections but whatever… also Tunsil’s gotta ease up on those false start penalties which are almost as bad as sacks anyway).
Four more touchdowns for Jameis Winston last week as well as two more interceptions. Takes him up to 30 TDs and 24 INTs to go with his bonkers 4573 passing yards too. I don’t need to reiterate why numbers like that are not numbers you can trust to win playoff games with but just keeping it nice and specific...
There are 115 occasions of a player throwing 20TD/20INT in a single season
There are only 16 occasions of a player throwing 25TD/25INT in single season, the most recent being Eli Manning in 2010, Jameis is one pick away from joining that crew
There are just 8 occasions of a player throwing 30TD/24INT in a single season and of them only Dan Fouts in 1980 has more passing yards than Winston this year
Nobody has ever had a 30TD/30INT season
Of the 11 5000+ passing yard campaigns in history, the most interceptions thrown was 19 by Drew Brees in 2012... who also threw 43 touchdowns that season – the fewest TDs in a 5000yd season was a tie between Roethlisberger (2018) and Brees (2008) with 34
In other words, Jameis could break records for the crappest 5000yd season ever. Winston is in fact only 905 yards away from breaking Peyton Manning’s all time record and he has two games left to achieve that in. His last two games? 914 passing yards. But me I’m just watching for that 30/30 season, how good? (The Texans only have 8 picks this season though, might need a booster).
Wildcard’s Pick: Texans by 7
Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)
Sunday 10.30am NZT
The Buffalo Bills. Back in the playoffs for the second time in three years after breaking an 18 year streak of missing out in 2017. They still haven’t won a playoff game since 1995... but with the defence that they have they could definitely spoil a few plans. If they win this they might yet take out the division and get a home game too, though that top seed is beyond reach. They gave New England big trouble in Buffalo earlier in the season and even though this one is in Foxborough it’s fair to say that Tom Brady has not been his normal self recently...
Lol.
I mean it’s as much to do with the lack of weapons around him and him not having trust in those guys but usually by this point they’ve discovered some underground king who’ll single handedly win them a playoff game later on with a huge performance. And they’re running out of time... yet they’re still on pace for a first round bye and yet another divisional title as long as they can win right here. God, imagine supporting a team who can legit consider it a crisis season when they’re 11-3 with a healthy franchise quarterback and the best coaching in the game. Spoiled is what they are. Spoiled.
By the way, there are plenty of great candidates for DPOY. Shaq Barrett was a I guy I mentioned last week. TJ Watt and Nick Bosa have been incredible. Tre’Davious White from these Bills should be somewhere in the convo, although he won’t win it (he was their only Pro Bowl nod). You could make a pretty convincing case for Aaron Donald to make it a three-peat as well. Cameron Jordan too. But my pick is Stephon Gilmore.
You have to go back to 2009 and Charles Woodson for the last cornerback to win the award but what that Pats secondary has done is incredible. They’re the only team with more interceptions than passing touchdowns conceded. The Bills have 13 of each and are second in that differential, one or two other teams could tip the scales into the positives over the last two weeks... but the Patriots have 10 TDs allowed and 25 picks. That’s FIFTEEN more picks than TDs when nobody else has one more. And Gilmore is the leader of that, just look at this!
Not quite sure how that works, are people accidentally completing throwaways? But it tells you all you need to know about the gravitational force of Stephon Gilmore.
Wildcard’s Pick: Patriots by 3
Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
Sunday 2.15pm NZT
Our third Sunday game, how good! It’s win or go home for the Rams and considering they weren’t able to barely even land a punch against the Dallas Cowboys last week (cheers lads), that’s a tough one to envisage happening. Jared Goff threw 51 passes (completing 33 for 284 yards) in that one and was thoroughly ineffective, padding things out with some garbage time numbers but oh wow this dude is gonna be the highest paid player in the league next year as it stands if you happened to have forgotten that. When Goff attempts 40+ passes the season the Rams are 1-4. When Goff attempts 31 or fewer passes in a game this season the Rams are 4-1. I just don’t understand how a confirmed genius like Sean McVay cannot see how the balance of this offence is the number one problem.
Granted Todd Gurley hasn’t been 100%basically at all this season. He’s played 13/14 games so he’s grinding through it... but he doesn’t have a single 100 yard rush games in 2019 and only twice has he run more than 20 times – both wins of course. In fact it’s the same as with Goff. When Gurley runs 16+ times they’re 5-0. When he runs fewer than 14 times they’re 1-4. It’s not exactly rocket science there. And that’s made worse by the fact that their run defence was so terrible in that game. Dallas rushed 45 times for 263 yards and 3 scores. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot BOTH had more than 100 yards, just rubbing it in for old mate Gurley. Poor guy.
Need I remind you that the Niners have the second most rush yards or any team this season?
Wildcard’s Pick: Niners by 9
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at New York Jets (5-9)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Steelers by 3
New Orleans Saints (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)
Monday 7.00am NZT
He might be 40 years old but when Drew Brees plays at that level like he did against the Colts last week there’s no better passer in the game. 29/30 for 307 yards and 4 TDs. Dammit, that’s a 97% completion rate. One single incompletion across the entire game.
Drew Brees: “I’ll be honest with you, you always think about the one that you missed. If I just set my darn feet and throw it to the running back, it’s 30-for-30, so that one may haunt me for a little while.”
He also broke Peyton Manning’s record for the most career touchdown passes, moving to 541 all up. He’s already the NFL’s leader in career passing yards having knocked Peyton off that perch in 2018. Love Drew Brees. For him to be capable of serving up a masterclass like that at his age is incredible but it seems like Tom Brady’s changed the game for older QBs, taking away from the unprecedented nature of anybody still playing this game at 40 let alone to that extreme level. Philip Rivers is another older guy still clinging on. Ben Roethlisberger will be back next year when he’s healthy. But while most of those other guys are regressing in their abilities, naturally, Drew Brees isn’t. 75.8% completion, 2447 passing yards, 21 TDs and only 4 INTs, in just nine games.
Guts to the Titans, they aren’t out of the playoff hunt quite yet but they really needed to beat Houston last week to keep it reasonable. Now Derrick Henry is injured and in doubt for this game and the Saints are looking imperious anyway. Oh well, they blew it earlier in the season back in the Marcus Mariota days, losing to the Colts, Jaguars, Bills and Broncos within the first six weeks.
Michael Thomas last week: 12 catches for 128 yards.
Michael Thomas in 2019: 133 catches for 1552 yards.
This is already the fourth most receptions in a single season, with Marvin Harrison’s 143 very much in the target zone. The all time receiving yards record is out of range but he could definitely become the eighth man to get to 1700 rec yards in a year. Of all the crazy things going on this year, Michael Thomas’ season is one of the craziest.
Wildcard’s Pick: Saints by 6
Carolina Panthers (5-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
Monday 7.00am NZT
The Panthers have lost six in a row, even Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been doing much. 71 rush yards per game at 4.3 per rush and 75 receiving yards, with 5 total touchdowns in that time. Definitely a slowing down from the 110 rush yards per game at 5.3 Y/C and 45.4 receiving yards per game, with 13 TDs in the first eight games. Meanwhile Kyle Allen’s last eight games have seen him completing at 60.7% with 10 TDs and 15 INTs, a passer rating of 70.9. It’s been rough. The Panthers’ season ended a long time ago.
But then the Colts are also in that murky zone where 2019 is done for but they still have to play it out and build towards next year and beyond. They’ve lost four in a row themselves, Jacoby Brissett with only one multi-TD game since he was injured. Both these teams are out of the mix and therefore there’s no reason to waste time yarning about them.
Wildcard’s Pick: Colts by 2
Cincinnati Bengals (1-13) at Miami Dolphins (3-11)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Dolphins by 3
Baltimore Ravens (12-2) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)
Monday 7.00am NZT
Al Pacino getting on the Lamar buzz, that might just be the best argument in his MVP case yet. I still haven’t watched The Irishman yet because it’s intimidatingly long but I will eventually – too many people have said it’s too good and apparently that whole de-aging thing isn’t that distracting, so that’s cool. I’ll get on it eventually. I learned this week that Netflix works way better on my computer through the app than through my web browser, so that’s a game-changer. Oh wait, NFL.
Yeah so Lamar Jackson did the inevitable last week...
A win here and the Ravens are guaranteed for that first round bye. Even a tie does the trick and they’ll still have a 93% chance with a loss. They’ve won 11 games in a row, going all the way back to... the end of September when they lost 40-25 to the Browns. Nick Chubb ran for 165 yards that day. Lamar Jackson threw two picks. Such a long time ago...
Wildcard’s Pick: Ravens by 15
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
Monday 7.00am NZT
16-3 down at halftime on the road against the Raiders, 20-16 winners by the end of it. Big old comeback from Gardner Minshew, including his third game-winning drive of the season, and he’s doing what he needs to do to stake his claim for the starting gig long term. Although hard to know how much planning’s going on with the Jags, they’ve dumped Tom Coughlin from the front office and nobody really expects coach Doug Marrone to hang around. The good news is that there’s a fair bit of trash coming off contract at the end of this season so a pretty drastic rebuild is possible and that’s about what they need. But Minshew’s hanging in there. Shout out to rookie defensive end Josh Allen too. He leads all rookies with 10 sacks.
Not as impressive a win as what the Falcons bagged last week though. This after a solid win over the Panthers and while it was their defence that stepped it up big time at the halfway stage of the season to get the Falcons winning games again, these last two weeks it’s been their offensive line that’s picked it up. Only three sacks in the last two games combined after giving up fifteen in two previous weeks in defeats to TBB and NOS.
Wildcard’s Pick: Falcons by 7
New York Giants (3-11) at Washington R*dskins (3-11)
Monday 7.00am NZT
I’ve gotta admit it, this was emotional. Eli Manning coming out and getting the win in what’ll probably be his final game in New York wearing that blue jersey... at least it looks like his last game considering the treatment he seemed to be getting. But for a guy who was so long one of my team’s greatest rivals I didn’t really expect to feel that happy for him seeing that positive reaction. Like, throw out the stats all you want, but this man won two Super Bowls for this franchise. He’s been treated like dirt the last couple years, probably because they were too hesitant to move on from him when they should have (end of last year, nice and cleanly, if not earlier – saves dropping him dramatically as they did), and that automatically makes him a legend. There are only twenty men to have started multiple Super Bowls as a quarterback and only 12 of them have multiple rings:
Tom Brady (6), Terry Bradshaw (4), Joe Montana (4), Troy Aikman (3), John Elway (2), Roger Staubach (2), Bob Griese (2), Ben Roethlisberger (2), Bart Starr (2), Jim Plunkett (2) & Eli Manning (2)
If you ignore the debate about whether he’s a Hall of Famer dude or not and simply look at that single achievement, it’s incredible. Especially since those two wins both came over the dominant team of his generation and each time he made massive clutch plays to help them win. Not sure if he’ll retire at this point, I suspect he probably will, but even if he doesn’t his time at the Giants is done. And if this is the last we see of him in the NFL, he just moved his career record as a starter up to 117-117. Breaking even at the end there. It’s as big a surprise to me as anyone but I’ll miss ya Eli.
Also relevant, massively relevant for the Giants considering they’re a rebuilding team, was that Saquon Barkley was IMMENSE against the Dolphins. Yeah, I understand the opposition wasn’t up to much but neither are a lot of teams yet since Saquon came back from injury he really hasn’t looked like himself at all.
Saquon pre-injury: 37 ATT | 237 YDS | 6.4 Y/ATT | 1 TD (2.5 GM)
Saquon post-injury: 117 ATT | 373 YDS | 3.2 Y/ATT | 1 TD (7 GM)
Saquon last week: 24 ATT | 112 YDS | 4.7 Y/ATT | 2 TD
Which also sorta means that all three of his hundy yard games have come with Eli Manning taking the snaps... but the injury was clearly more of a factor than anything else in that.
It’s touch and go as to whether Danny Dimes (more like Danny Fumbles) is fit to play but the farewell that Eli got last week suggests they all expect Jones back here. Which is good for the Giants because it means they’ll probably lose and therefore finish below the R*dskins in the standings and get a slightly better draft pick. They could get second overall with a pair of defeats here and then against the Eagles . I’d recommend an offensive lineman either way, if anyone’s listening. Strengthen your strengths is the way to go, protect Jones and unleash Barkley.
One more thing to watch out for here. Both teams are trying to lose and Derrius Guice is injured so the Skins might as well hand the ball off to Peterson 35 times, why not? He’s also 66 yards short of moving into the top five all time for rush yards.
Wildcard’s Pick: Skins by 7
Detroit Lions (3-10-1) at Denver Broncos (5-9)
Monday 10.05am NZT
Here’s another one of those dud games with nothing much going on. A couple backup QBs, neither team with anything much to play for, I dunno. Lets not get dragged down here.
Wildcard’s Pick: Broncos by 5
Oakland Raiders (6-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
Monday 10.05am NZT
Wildcard’s Pick: Chargers by 10
Arizona Cardinals (4-9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Monday 10.25am NZT
Breathe a big sigh of relief here because Bobby Wagner is likely to play this game, which doesn’t matter so much here but it does mean he’ll be fine to go for the playoffs and all that. Bit of a fright as he was injured last week, aye.
There’s this wild situation at the top of the NFC where four different teams have 11-3 records (the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, and New Orleans Saints) with the Minnesota Vikings at 10-3 and still in range. Whatever’s gonna happen at the top, your guess is as good as mine. Here are the schedules to try and make sense of this all, because getting that first round bye is massively crucial towards going deep in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks: Cardinals (H) & 49ers (H)
San Francisco 49ers: Rams (H) & Seahawks (A)
Green Bay Packers: Vikings (A) & Lions (A)
New Orleans Saints: Titans (A) & Panthers (A)
Minnesota Vikings: Packers (H) & Bears (H)
The tiebreakers favour head to head first of all, then conference win percentage, then win percentage in common games before we start getting into strength of victory and schedule. As it stands, that puts the Seahawks and Packers in the box seat but the Saints will back themselves to win both remaining games while the Seahawks and Niners do have to play again. Not giving much hope to the Vikings overcoming three out of four teams at this point... but there’s also a cheeky factor with them and the Packers and also the Seahawks and Niners because those pairs are in the same division and therefore whoever finishes second from each pair will be wildcards... meaning away games in the first round against division winners. Remember that the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles will be there with at best a 9-7 record but one of those two is gonna be hosting a playoff game. The NFL is weird.
Wildcard’s Pick: Seahawks by 10
Dallas Cowboys (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)
Monday 10.25am NZT
How nice of the Cowboys to remember what they’re supposed to do. They annihilated the Rams last week in the bounceback game they inexplicably failed to produce for about a month of just pure disaster football. The only one that matters is this one though. This is a playoff playoff. It’s the two best teams of the worst division in football scrapping it out for the division title. The Cowboys beat Philly pretty easy earlier in the campaign in Texas but the embarrassing struggles of both these teams means that neither has been able to pull away. As it stands, the combined record of the four teams in the NFC East is 20-36. That’ll be 22-38 by the end of this week since they’re all playing each other and trying to figure out the worst ever division is tough because divisions have been realigned a lot over the years so we can only really look at the modern era... the 2008 NFC West was the worst I could find. The Cardinals won it with a 9-7 record and the total combined record was 22-42 (which the 2019 NFC East is guaranteed to surpass.... but still humiliating to be in this company).
I’m pretty confident. Dak Prescott has been superb in divisional games his entire career and Jason Garret as head coach – JASON GARRETT – has a 7-2 record in Philadelphia. The Cowboys are on a streak of 14 wins from their last 16 NFC East matchups. Prescott does have a sore shoulder which is a concern because he was less than a hundy last week, that’s for sure. Missing a few throws he’d normally hit with his eyes closed. But, like, plan A is always to establish the running game first and Dak showed last week that even if his precision is slightly off, his throwing depth has no dramas whatsoever. Dallas leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt, in fact.
And, well... Zeke Elliot has four 100 yard rushing games in five matches against the Eagles and has at least 140 yards from scrimmage in each of them. Yeah he quite likes playing these guys.
Makes you wonder why they’ve been so crap lately, I guess it’s just situational. They have the top offence out there in total yards as well but their red zone numbers aren’t great and they brought in Kai Forbath last week as their new kicked to replace Brett Maher, who looked the goods when knocking them over from 60 yards but he missed ten of his 30 field goal attempts and leaving points on the board like that is a killer.
For Philly there’s no secret whatsoever though. Troubles with injuries all over the show have doomed them, from just as would happen to basically any team that loses a number of starters. Nobody has as much depth as you’d think. But most of all its those injured wideouts. Alshon Jeffrey has missed four games. DeSean Jackson has missed 11 games. Nelson Agholor has missed three. At least they got a really positive one from rookie RB Miles Sanders last week – 122 yards on 19 carries with a score (and a 6yd TD catch too). And it’s ridiculous how I’ve had to come around to being a Carson Wentz apologist but 63.4% COMP | 3431 YDS | 25 TD | 7 INT ain’t completely shabby. Especially considering what he’s working with. Or, rather, without.
Wildcard’s Pick: Cowboys by 8
Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) at Chicago Bears (7-7)
Monday 2.20pm NZT
Let it snow, let it snow. That was in Kansas City last week and there might even be similar in Chicago here. It’s a little insane to think you’re even allowed to play gridiron in such conditions... but then Patrick Mahomes didn’t have any trouble in completing at 27/34 for 340 yards with 2 TDs and a pick. The Chiefs are an easy team to sleep on, they were sort of last year’s hit flavour. Now we’ve all moved on to Lamar Jackson and Baltimore right? Except that the Chiefs have won four straight and should beat the Bears and Chargers to take a lovely winning streak into the playoffs. They’re peaking at the right time, that’s for sure.
Wildcard’s NFL Awards Predictions...
MVP: Lamar Jackson (BAL)
DPOY: Stephon Gilmore (NEP)
ROY: Kyler Murray (ARI)
DROY: Nick Bosa (SF49)
COY: John Harbaugh (BAL)
Quick nudge on the Bears, I picked them to lose to the Packers and they did so that was nice but they ran this lateral play in the final seconds which for a brief moment I though they’d summoned a perfect draw-and-pass rugby strategy and the fact that they somehow didn’t score after getting within the 10 yards, when all they needed to do was pass it on one more time but NFL instinct got in the way... oh dude. Come on. Allen Robinson is literally clapping his hands demanding the ball and he never gets it. Then, yeah, fumble and recovered by the defence. What could have been... although they still probably woulda lost, either by missing on the 2PAT or in OT.
Wildcard’s Pick: Chiefs by 12
Green Bay Packers (11-3) at Minnesota Vikings (10-4)
Tuesday 2.15pm NZT
Argh I dunno, I’m tired. That’s enough for this week. By rights this will be Minnesota’s first home loss of 2019... and if they do lose and then lose again to the Bears at home next week (doubtful) then they leave the door open for the Rams to win out and take that second wildcard spot. Hypothetically, considering the state of the Rams at the moment.
Wildcard’s Pick: Packers by 3
The Wildcard is a staff writer for The Niche Cache. If words published were passing yards and missed deadlines were interceptions then just call him the Jameis Winston of indie media NFL writers from Aotearoa
Support TNC on Patreon if you rate what we’re up to
Also whack an ad whenever you read something decent
Keep cool but care